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TwinsDr2021

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  1. TwinsDr2021
    Your first paragraph is pretty much exactly what I said. Your second paragraph sounds quite a bit like the off seasons before 21 and 22. (FYI, those seasons didn't go well) The idea that all most all the the Twins starting 9 has question marks (and they do) and the plan is to back them up with older minor league players (I won't even call Kiersey, Prato, Helman prospects) is playing with fire.
  2. TwinsDr2021
    Until they start developing starter pitchers (Ober and Varland to a lesser extend), they are going to need to trade (Lopez, Ryan, Gray, Maeda, Mahle, Paddack)for them or sign them. You can't be successful without starting pitching.
  3. TwinsDr2021
    IMO, as it currently stands the Twin look more like the 21, 22 Twins than the 23 teams. The 23 teams brought in veteran depth and had starting pitcher depth to the point that Ober wasn't considered good enough to be on the starting day roster. The 23 Twins starting pitcher depth was IMO the best rotation (and depth) in my life time (Lopez, Gray, Ryan, Mahle, Maeda, Ober, Varland) and even with that they needed Keuchel for 6 starts and 10 games. Again as it stands now it is Lopez, Ober, Ryan, Paddack and Varland and then hope and prospects. The depth last year was Farmer, Taylor, Solano, Castro, Gordon and dare I say Gallo with Walllner and Julien. With that depth they were able to over come Larnach, AK, Miranda, Gordon, Polanco and Buxton getting hurt (Even Correa). This year the back ups and some starters are unknown quantities. If all goes well the Twins are going to be fine, should easily win the Central and be able to make noise in the playoffs, but if a pitcher or two goes down and the prospects struggle a bit and/or Buxton, AK, Lewis and others get hurt again and some younger players regress like Larnach, Miranda and Gordon did last year we could be looking at a similar result to 21 and 22. Which IMO is why they need to spend something on a RH outfielder and bring in somebody to push Varland out of the starting rotation like they did with Ober. If they don't and things end up like 21 and 22 it could easily be pointed out that reduction of payroll was a major issue.
  4. TwinsDr2021
    and yet in the last 23 world series The Dodgers and Yankees have 1 more world series than the Twins (and the same as the Rangers, Nationals, Cubs, Royals, Phillies, White Sox, Marlins, Diamondbacks) and the Mets have the same amount. Sure money helps, but it is no where near as important and developing/trading for talent and a little luck. (having a really good FO/organization is part of the developing and trading piece)
  5. TwinsDr2021
    Jeffers being an all star has nothing to do with defense, it is about the bat.
  6. TwinsDr2021
    In his first year with the Twins he put up a 5.5 WAR which was 21st in baseball (Hitting), then last year was hurt, but still played 135 games and had a WAR of 1.4. The year before he put up 7.2 and was 5th in the MVP voting. In 2020 he put up 1.7 and was a again a top 40 in the league. In 18 and 19 he was hurt again but up (3.1, 3.7) in 110 and 75 games. By age 25 he had accumulated 25 WAR and is on pace to have another 20 by age 30. If ages 30-35 are the same as 25-30 (remember that included a COVID year and an injury) he will have around 65 career WAR will puts him in the Boudreau, Cronin, Banks, Reese range. and if he can get another 5 total after that he will be in the Larkin, Trammell, Jeter area. The Twins and us fans should fully be expecting another 4-5 years of WARS between 4-5 and maybe a year or two back up to his 7.2, 7.0, 6.7 years.
  7. TwinsDr2021
    IMO, he is going to have to pick it up, because being compared to Lindor and Machado is going to hurt him (as of right now). On a different note, I have to disagree with Petriello on letting this generation of pitchers in because they have to elect somebody. How can you elect the likes of Sale/Wheeler/Burnes/Nola and leave out pitchers like Johan? It seems like all the older pitchers that have just missed would have been just as good as the current pitchers if they would have been asked to do less.
  8. TwinsDr2021
    (I am replied to your comment because you mentioned Soto and your post was short, could have replied to any of them) We need to stop comparing him to Soto or Soto type of player. Soto K'd 14% in the minors and hit .362 in the minors at age 17,18,19. He hit .292 and .282 in the majors and K'd at a 20% rate at the same age ERod has been the last two years. Soto is an All-World generational talent (close to the same age as Julien, Martin, and younger than Wallner) who already has MVP votes in 4 years, comparing ERod to Soto or Soto type player sets him up for failure. ERod has an absolute high ceiling and potential but should be compared to other type of all star type players (maybe Yelich, Schwarber, Bellinger). With that said I wouldn't trade him unless it was something that was too good to be true.
  9. TwinsDr2021
    Then I am not sure why you replied to to my message. The last two years his WAR has been 2.8 and 2.0 in 104 and 80 games. I think a team would pay something for 10 million and a chance to get 2021 stats, no?
  10. TwinsDr2021
    My point wasn't he could be a starter at those positions for an extended time period. my point was similar to what others are saying about Farmer, he can adequately play any infield position for a few innings or games. I don't want him starting any where other than 2B and DH consistently. I would rather have him fill in a 3B, SS or 1B for a game or two (at the most) against a right handed pitcher than Farmer, or 2B, 1B and DH against a lefty than Julien or Wallner (DH) or Castro (SS and 2B) or maybe AK (1B/DH).
  11. TwinsDr2021
    Notice I didn't say don't trade Polanco, I said unless they get a really, really good return. the Marlins got the 13th rated prospect in baseball and Brewers #1 prospect, the Brewers #5 prospect, a top 25 prospect and a guy that started 15 games for the Marlins the next year. Sure looking at it now looks like squat but at the time it was considered a really, really good return. The Twins didn't give Arraez away because they had prospects ready, they got something really, really good. The Marlins didn't give away Ozuna they got something that at the time was considered really, really good. Good players do get traded all the time, and the Twins are the type of team that needs to be trading players to replenish but teams like the Twins can't afford to give away good players for nothing.
  12. TwinsDr2021
    IMO as of right now this team going north. AK (1B), Polanco (2B), Correa (SS), Lewis (3B), Julien (DH), Wallner (LF), Buxton (CF), Kepler (RF) Jeffers (C) Bench: Castro, Farmer, Vazquez, Gordon (Out of options they aren't cutting him so the can put Martin on the bench) I can't see them trading Kepler, they have no real depth in the minors behind Martin and Larnach. I also can't see them trading Polanco unless they get a really, really good return, you don't just give away 30 year old players that can play multiple positions with a lifetime 111 OPS+, coming off three years of 125, 115,115 and hand the job to guy that had a .447 OPS against left handed hitters.
  13. TwinsDr2021
    Farmer has started 4 games at 1B in his 7 year career (he has also started 3 games at catcher), Farmer has a lifetime OPS+ of 88, can we stop with the Farmer is a possible right handed solution at 1B.
  14. TwinsDr2021
    Didn't say I agree with the 30% but it has been used on this site quite a bit. But to be fair (2019 - 2023) Ober went from 78.66, 0, 108.33, 72.66, 166.33 If he wouldn't have gotten hurt in 22 he probably would have went up around the 30% each year. Canterino is the same years has 99.33, 0, 23, 37, 0, so based on Ober I would assume someplace between 2019 and 2022. Festa - 53, 16.33, 72, 103.66, 92. 33 ' Varland - 64, 0, 103, 152.33, 149,66 Headrick - 100, 0, 63, 108.33, 100.66 Based on these and just about all other Twins minor league pitchers, I see no chance they jump him to 125 innings. If the Twins decide to keep him as a starter I would assume they bring him along like everybody else, starting with real short starts and then extending them slowly. So by the time he would be ready for the majors he will be getting up in innings and be forced to the pen, why not just get those innings in the majors if he is as good as we all hope and expect. I would bring him along just like the White Sox did with Kopech.
  15. TwinsDr2021
    Canterino has pitched three games in professional baseball that he went 5 innings and that was in 2019. And the expectation is he can make a minimum of 25 starts and get to 125 innings this year? There is no chance the Twins put him out as a starter and let that happen, regardless if it is in the minors or majors. I though all the data talked about a 30% or something increase each year and now the analytic Twins are going to throw that out? 50 - 70 innings this year should be the goal 100- 125 next year and after that what every amount he earns. I would much rather have him in the majors learning how to get major league hitters out then building up his arm in the minors.
  16. TwinsDr2021
    I don't see Martin up unless things go horribly wrong with Buxton, if they are serious about making Canterino a starter I think he is third in line behind Festa and Lewis. I see Lee up when the Twins think he is ready and will figure out what to do with Julien and Polanco if he is brought up. I love Erod but soured a bit on him after last year, I see him at AA all next year unless he cuts down a bit on K's and gets his average up. Severino seems like a guy we will all be screaming to get up but there really won't be a spot for him unless AK goes down with injury and Miranda is more 23 than 22. Just my two cents. I would love to see Canterino in the pen in the majors to begin the year and stretched out a bit to keep his injuries in check, I see him as a Kopech or at the high end a poor mans DeGrom.
  17. TwinsDr2021
    Or Lewis could get hurt, Miller continues to hit ,223 with a .648 OPS in A ball, and Lee shows he more Gordon/Castro then Julien/Arraez/Polanco, which could set the team back years. With that said if I was the Twins I would have given the starting 2nd basemen job to Lee to start the season. Put Julien (backup at 2nd if Lee ends up needing more time) at DH and trade Polanco, A team likes the Twins has to have prospects back filling positions each year. You start Wallner/Buxton/Kepler in the outfield with Larnach being the first man up for a corner spot and bring in a right handed bat that can play center with Martin backing him up in AAA.
  18. TwinsDr2021
    and yet Baker, Cabbage, Busch all got a chance after showing hey could hit, the first two after a few years of not being all that good in the minors years earlier. Busch was a top 5 Dodger prospect going into last year but it does seem weird he hasn't been give more of a chance since he has been pretty good (or better) in the minors since 2021.
  19. TwinsDr2021
    I don't think what you are saying is that rare, low(er) rated prospects that all of sudden show the hitting tool get moved quickly all the time, the Twins have two examples Polanco and Arraez. 2021 mid season twins top prospects Julien was in the mid 20's, year and a half later he is in the majors. Miranda, Steer Wallner are also examples, 2022 CES was barely a Twins top 30 prospects was in the majors the next season. If you show the hit tool, you moved regardless of where you were drafted. 2017 Austin RIley was question mark (after thought) prospect after being a top 7 pick a few years prior, the next year he was 8th and the next year in the majors at 22. I will give you it probably helps if your team isn't great, but the the hitting tool always will keep you moving.
  20. TwinsDr2021
    Altuve is a horrible example, he made the majors at age 21 and was putting up minor league numbers that were pretty freaking good. .409 as a 21 year old in high A with a OPS of 1.017, moved up to AA and didn't drop of much. Mullens was close to Kepler in turns of minor league performance. IMO it isn't rare to give young guys with skills an opportunity. What is rare is to give an opportunity to a player that hasn't shown he is a quality minor league player before he is required to be on the 40 man. You are using Keppinger as the fall guy here, but in ALL reality he is the guy you should have been using as the example. Up at 24, but not really given a chance until he was 27/28, play 4 years until he was terrible and was done in the majors at age 33.
  21. TwinsDr2021
    Correct they didn't luck into the staff, they traded a first round pick (high prospect), they traded an all star and the AL batting champion, they traded their top pitching prospect (Graterol), they traded two top prospects (ECS, Steer), they traded their closer, drafted 1, and had amazing trade of a FA to be. That is not luck, but it wasn't cheap in terms of prospect capital. I also didn't say it wasn't good or the correct way to go about it. I say if they don't start developing pitching the price is going to be high.
  22. TwinsDr2021
    Helman was 22 in 2018 and played in Rookie, A, and High A. Did great in Rookie and A, In 2019 struggled in high A again. Then missed 2020, repeated high A as a 25 year old and wasn't great. As a 26 year old he played AA and AAA and didn't light the world on fire. As a 27 year old repeated AAA and did pretty OK in 108 at bats, nothing about his minor career screams he deserved anything more than he has gotten. ( minors 5 years, .258/.330,.430) Keirsey was 21 and played 26 games in rookie, IN 2019 he played A ball and had an OPS of .406, missed 2020, in 21 (he was 24) payed high A and hit .199 with a .733 OPS, In 22 as a 25 year old he played AA, he hit for a higher average but had a SLG of .395.. As a 26 year old he repeated AA and hit really well, but not as well as younger (in some cases much younger) in the league. He moved up to AA and continued to do well. Again nothing screams he deserved anything more than he has gotten (minors 5 years, .261/.336/.399) Larnach was 21 in 2018, started in Rookie and had an OPS of .905, moved up to A and had had an OPS of .878, in 19 he started in high A and slashed .316/.382/.459, moved up to AA and slashed .295/.387/.455, Missed 2020 and started 21 in AAA and has kind of stunk since (there have been moments here an there and injuries haven't helped) it does seem like maybe the Twins rushed him a bit in 21. If you compare those three and take away where they were drafted are you really going to say one was given more chances than the other two? Larnach has been better every step of the way and in AAA last year as well. (minors 5 years .286/.377/.464), does draft position matter? absolutely, but really good players can overcome,
  23. TwinsDr2021
    Sure for every Lopez, Gray and Odo, there is a Strotman, Shoemaker, Happ, De Leon, Keuchel, Sanchez, Chi Chi, Rodriguez that didn't . Maeda had his career best ERA and two worst Career ERA with the Twins, Is that a success and failure to develop? I don't give the Twins credit for developing major leagues pitchers (Joe Ryan pitched two games in the Twins minors before coming up), I DO give them credit for finding the right guys to trade for and helping them take their game to another level Also I give them credit for a pretty good job of turning minor league prospects into good relief pitchers.
  24. TwinsDr2021
    To Clarify I meant develop starting pitchers, and that one starting pitcher is Ober, Varland isn't there yet, but hopefully will be this year. I give 100% credit for the Odo, Maeda, and Ryan trades, but trading for starting pitchers is completely different than developing them.
  25. TwinsDr2021
    Until the Twins starting actually developing EDIT: Starting pitchers the cost for getting them is going to be high (or lucky like Ryan for Cruz) Because as of right now the Twins have developed Ober and a bunch of relief pitchers.
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