Jump to content
Twins Daily
  • Create Account

jmlease1

Verified Member
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    5,286

  • Joined

  • Last visited

  • Days Won

    30

 Content Type 

Profiles

News

Minnesota Twins Videos

2026 Minnesota Twins Top Prospects Ranking

2022 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks

Minnesota Twins Free Agent & Trade Rumors, Notes, & Tidbits

Guides & Resources

2023 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks

The Minnesota Twins Players Project

2024 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks

2025 Minnesota Twins Draft Pick Tracker

Forums

Blogs

Events

Store

Downloads

Gallery

Everything posted by jmlease1

  1. jmlease1
    Well, it depends on how you look at it. If the expectation is that the rotation should always have the same level of depth that we had last season, where 2 younger guys with MLB experience, are waiting in AAA for no other reason than the team had better options ahead of them...then yeah: the rotation depth is thin and we might not have anyone capable of stepping in if Lopez or Ryan go down for an extended period. But isn't that the case for most teams? How many teams have two MLB-ready starters with a ceiling of being at least a #2-3 guy just hanging out in AAA? 2023's rotation depth was the aberration in that we had Ober and Varland ready to go in AAA. But it's also important to remember that behind them the rotation depth was arguably worse than what we have now. Sure, we're running Headrick back again as an option, but we've also got Festa in the mix, SWR seems better positioned than last season, and Dobnak looks like a much more reasonable option as well. And we certainly didn't have the depth in the bullpen last season to handle a loss like Duran last year. We're now in the world where we're taking some risk on in the rotation and expecting that some of our pitching prospects will step in if called upon. This year, it's Festa. Next year it might be Raya, Lewis, or Ohl. (Much as I wish it was Canterino, you simply can't make that bet) I feel like that's the kind of bet you make when your rotation is all under 30? I think who gets called up depends a little on timing, but the most likely choices are SWR and Headrick, unless it's already June and Festa's command and control look good. Dobnak is less likely to get grabbed for a spot-start because of the 40-man issue, but if he's pitching well and say Paddack goes to the IL, I could see him being added to the 40-man and given a chance if he's pitching well in Saint Paul. I still like SWR's talent and with Festa...either you believe in him as a prospect or you don't. If you do then he's a legit option. If you don't, then you're probably going to spend most of the season mad at the Twins, because you don't agree with their prospect investment or development...
  2. jmlease1
    But this Sunday's lineup certainly wasn't a "getaway day" lineup: the only real change was Martin starting in CF to let Buxton DH; Castro was an injury replacement. The only "starter" that didn't play was Kepler, who is dealing with a knee after the foulball off it. So it wasn't an inferior lineup. And I'm willing to bet people would have jumped on Rocco for leaving Buxton and Correa in the game down 10-0 ("how dare Rocco leave 2 players with major injury history in the game and risk injury when the game is already over! Fire the manager, he's terrible!"). He pulled Correa in the bottom of the 5th and Buxton in the top of the 6th. Seems fine...unless you've already made up your mind that Rocco is a bad manager. Then, he can't possibly win in this situation.
  3. jmlease1
    why? because he's not Buxton? He didn't come up with the incredible catches today, but I don't think that would have saved us. He's a good OF, but those catches against the wall weren't run of the mill.
  4. jmlease1
    Pretty bad game al the way around. Ober just didn't have it today, couldn't spot his pitches where he needed them and wasn't fooling anyone. But it's one game, let's not lose our minds over it. Which is more likely: Ober had a bad day, or the guy with a career 116 ERA+ can't pitch any longer at age 28? I'm disappointed at the offense; the Twins really flailed out there today and made a decent pitcher look like an ace. They're going to have to do better, but they really looked like they had already left for MN. It's annoying because KC isn't a very good team, but even a bad team like KC is going to win games
  5. jmlease1
    I think Dobnak will get another chance this season, just because they're going to need starts from 8-10 pitchers this year in MLB. But he's behind Festa, SWR, and probably Headrick at this point until he shows he can be less hittable and give up fewer free passes. I'll be watching his WHIP this season; if he's sitting up near 1.5, then he's not going to be a real option, even if he manages to somehow limit the runs. You simply can't allow that many baserunners, especially since Dobnak is never going to be a champion hunter of Ks. He did a nice job in his first outing, and I liked seeing him be effective piggybacking for another starter; it opens options for him to be a long man and not just a starter. Him not being on the 40-man will definitely keep him from being one of the early options to start, but depending on how injuries go, there's usually room to add someone to the 40-man during the season. If he doesn't get added back, it'll mean one of three things: 1) Twins didn't have enough significant injuries to really need him, 2) guys like Festa/SWR/Headrick got the job done and he wasn't needed, or 3) he didn't show enough in AAA to be considered an option. I don't think the 40-man issue will be a real barrier if he pitches well, but others will likely get a shot first.
  6. jmlease1
    Nice work from Dobnak; if he can show success in a piggybacking role that will open up opportunities for him to either start or relieve in MLB. He's been something of the forgotten man with the finger injuries and getting dropped from the 40-man, but he could still be an impactful player. That said, I hope the low pitch counts and short innings for Festa are just an early season ramp up and not a common practice. Great to see Miranda start fast. Hope he settles in and mashes AAA pitching. I think if he stays healthy he will, but you never know exactly how guys respond to significant injuries and I think his shoulder woes weren't small time. It would be great for him to re-emerge as a solution for the future for the Twins as a 1B/DH option with a serious RH bat.
  7. jmlease1
    Thought Alcala looked pretty good, which was nice. If he's back and throwing well he can be a difference maker in the bullpen. If Buxton can move like that and stay on the field, I'm going to be one happy Twins fan. He's so fun to watch when he's right, and seeing him leg out doubles that would be singles for most people is awesome. Thought Ryan looked pretty good. A few nervy fly balls, but the revised slider looked pretty effective and the splitter was working too. Good to see the velocity on the fastball as well. KC made a bunch of great plays defensively at 3B and LF, had me wondering if they were going to steal it. nice to see the team rally late.
  8. jmlease1
    Some interesting players in AAA this year. Obviously the club will be stronger when Lee and Larnach get back, but there's several players I want to watch and see if they can answer questions. Rotation: can SWR maintain the better velocity he showed in spring training? How will Festa's command look, and can he keep the free passes reasonable? Can Dobnak stay healthy and restart his career? (I keep forgetting him; he's shown ability before, but he wasn't good last year) Lineup: Can Severino make enough contact to be a real threat? Can Martin stay healthy and hit consistently? Will Miranda's shoulder hold up and get him back as a hitter? Will Keirsey hit enough to be a real OF option? Can Larnach hit off-speed pitches or is he cooked? Will Lee's injury keep him from getting a call-up before midseason? Is Isola able to stick at catcher or is he going to have to hit his way up at another position? Should be a pretty good squad; lot of guys with real experience, but there are some prospects with good ceilings as well.
  9. jmlease1
    I think he nailed himself twice, in fact. the second one was the worse one, going right off the knee. The change seemed more precautionary than anything, but it looked painful going right off the knee like that.
  10. jmlease1
    Sucks that Royce got hurt. Ugh. Just hate everything about that, but if anyone can bounce back it's the ever-positive Royce Lewis. Pablo looked good, no complaints about 1 run over 7. He could have a monster year. I hope this isn't going to be another season where crap umpires expand the zone on Julien and call balls strikes on him as they continue to not give a young player credit for knowing the strike zone. Laz Diaz made some strike calls in the later innings that were maddening. I don't want to talk or think about umps like this, but effing hell. Correa looked great. Foot must be feeling good, hopefully he's got that behind him.
  11. jmlease1
    Duarte is probably the biggest surprise, but otherwise this is pretty chalk. There are some different names in the bullpen because of injuries, but going into the year, Funderburk always looked like the LHP replacement for Thielbar (or Okert once he was signed), Alcala was already battling with Staumont for a slot, and Sands has been in the "long man" role before. the bullpen injuries are a bummer; I was looking forward to seeing what Topa could do, and Duran isn't replaceable. But the depth we brought in and have within the the system should be able to hold things down overall. I'm still a big fan of Alcala if he's healthy and he sure looks like he is now. No surprises at all on the position side; kinda nice to not be battling injuries there. I'm mildly concerned about Santana being overexposed as an every day 1B, and I'd like Kirilloff to get consistent work there rather than just be a DH (I don't see him getting any real OF time unless Kepler or Wallner are injured or need a day off against a RHP, and even then we might see Castro out there). health and 2nd year regression are the biggest factors the lineup is facing IMHO; otherwise it's deep and talented with flexibility. The worst hitter by a mile is the backup catcher, who provides quality defense.
  12. jmlease1
    You might be recalling intensity rather than size? I'm sure there were people on the site who were very loud about how they shouldn't do this because Graterol could be the next great starter for the Twins. I'm not sure there were huge numbers of them who were convinced that he was the next Santana/Liriano. The same 6 people posting often on the topic can create a false sense of what the broader community is thinking. I mean, we still have people that pop up from time to time suggesting that Duran should be turned back into a starter, but I don't think they're representative of the community as a whole. I think there were people who still saw Graterol as a potential starter at the time of the trade, but it was increasingly a minority position. Because there was a lot of talk about this deal in terms of trading a reliever for a starter from the Twins perspective. There's also no question that the Dodgers acquired him with the intent that he be a reliever.
  13. jmlease1
    I think the MLBPA has been the single most effective union in sports for well over 50 years. They make the others in the "Big 4" look small and mediocre at best, pathetic at worst. And I'm always going to side with Labor over Management, especially when the owners are billionaires who have tried every shady trick in the book, even if "labor" in this case is a place where millionaires abound. But I do think they have some challenges that they haven't really tackled. the old veteran middle class isn't where it used to be, and there's an increasing divide between the stars under big contracts and everybody else. bringing in the minor leaguers was absolutely the right thing to do, but there's a lot of work that still needs to be done there to keep some of those guys from barely surviving and it's going to cost money. They've assumed that having a huge gap between the haves and the have nots wouldn't have any real impacts on contracts, and arguably that's no longer the case. Having no salary cap and no real revenue sharing is great when the Dodgers, Yankees, Red Sox, Cubs and Mets would spend like there's no tomorrow and make crazy contracts, but that list has narrowed a lot (notice what the Cubs and Red Sox payrolls are?) and the implosion of RSNs is a real revenue risk to baseball. Contracts have gotten shorter. Clark has been wobbly as a union president; his job in this role isn't really to negotiate the CBA, it's to build and manage a core negotiations committee that represents all player interests, hire smart labor lawyers/negotiators, keep all the team reps informed, and be the public face of the union. He's had some misses on the first, and slipped on the last with some unwise public comments. And when you miss on those, the middle two start coming into question.
  14. jmlease1
    I think you're right about Jax & Stewart's roles, which would make sense for both of them from a performance and health standpoint. I'm assuming you're talking about Alcala being healthy and throwing hard? I'm still a big fan of his, and if he can throw the changeup effectively enough to not get killed by LH hitters, he'll do well because he's death against righties. Stewart, Jax, Okert, Jackson, and Alcala is still the foundation of a solid bullpen and should be able to hold things down until Duran & Thielbar are back. (It's going to be interesting to see how long it takes Duran; there are people on this board stating with certainty that he isn't going to pitch until June...)
  15. jmlease1
    Jax's conversion to the bullpen has worked out pretty well. I think he's still get deployed more in the fireman role (facing heart of the order groups in the 7-9th inning) rather than be used as a 90's-style "closer" (designated 9th inning guy), at least I hope so. He's really good, and I'm glad to see him succeed. It's impressive that his sweeper and 4-seamer are both still so effective against LH hitters, and if he can tighten up that change to torment LH hitters, he's going to have a monster year as a reliever who can be deployed against basically anyone.
  16. jmlease1
    keep in mind that as a terrible team they don't exactly have a lot of need to have a old reliever. He's almost certainly better right now than some of the guys they kept, but isn't going to be part of their plans for the future. The roster spot was probably more valuable to them than the performance, since they're not trying to win at all. My only fear with a move like this is that they might keep the veteran with limited upside after guys get healthy over the younger player with better performance just to keep the asset rather than have the best 8 guys in the 'pen. But it probably won't come to that and if he can still get guys out (and he did fine last season) it's a fairly low-risk move that could help, probably won't hurt.
  17. jmlease1
    Our lineup can hit from 1-9 with no black holes with the projected starters, and quality/superior defenders at multiple positions. We have a quality bench with players that could start for other clubs. We have AAA depth in Lee, Martin, Camargo, Miranda, and Larnach. We have the ability to PH & PR players without disrupting our defensive alignments. That's depth. Your comments on Lee don't match up at all with this board: most people here think he is ready, and you've had people suggesting all off-season ideas like moving Lewis to the OF or Julien to 1B to get him in the lineup. He's a top 25 global prospect, and having a guy like that in AAA is a huge benefit to the depth. If your expectation to have superior depth is having 2 guys like Lee at every position, then I don't know what to tell you.
  18. jmlease1
    I would argue that our depth is superior to most teams, it's just that we also have more key players with injury history issues than most as well. I love our infield depth. It's really impressive. we're in better shape than most teams at catcher with 2 options that would start for many teams (in part because people will assume Vazquez will rebound) and a prospect that looks ready for backup innings in AAA. We've got backups in place that can hold the fort immediately, and good PR/PH options.
  19. jmlease1
    There's only two LHP in the bullpen with this projection: Okert and Funderburk. The rest are all RHP. Team looks pretty good to me: while the injury to Duran is a real bummer (he's just not replaceable, even if we still have some good depth in the bullpen) and I was hoping we wouldn't have to dip into our starting pitching depth before opening day, otherwise things are looking pretty solid. The lineup is healthy to kick off the year and there's a lot of depth there too. Most of the "worries" are guys that have struggling in spring training and you never know if those numbers are meaningful at all, so I'm not going to be too concerned until someone has a rotten April. My biggest concerns right now are: how will our relievers hold up throwing more than 1 inning at times, will the team over-use Santana because of his good glove even if he's not hitting RHP worth a damn, how will Paddack look back as a starter, and can Buxton, Lewis, Correa stay healthy. None of these are disaster-level (at least not now) so I feel pretty good about this team's chances to win the division.
  20. jmlease1
    "One of these things is not like the others..." Overrated Eovaldi had a good season last year, but he's nowhere near the class of Scherzer or DeGrom. not with that career ERA+ of 103. He's also 34 with an extensive history of injuries (not performances), with literally one great season. He's like half the pitcher Sonny Gray has been over their respective careers and no one is putting Sonny in the same category as Scherzer or DeGrom either. I would be at least as concerned about Eovaldi as I am about Paddack; at least Paddack is 6 years younger...
  21. jmlease1
    Yep, they'd all save everyone a lot of time and trouble if they just went out and shot themselves.
  22. jmlease1
    Look, you can look worst-case scenario, expect failure and disaster, or not. But tell me, how many teams in MLB aren't at major risk if 2 of their best starters go down for extended periods of time/the season? (how does the Yankees rotation look right now? How concerning is it for the Red Sox that their big pitching acquisition is done for the year?) The idea that you should realistically have 5 starters with no injury history, under the age of 30, with at least one ace and 1-2 more pitchers with high ceilings, no one a retread or trying to come back from a significant injury, along with 3 guys ready in AAA (2 young high-value prospects with high ceilings who have already at least had a cup of coffee in MLB and shown they can get guys out at this level and 1 veteran who signed with you because the rest of the league was too stupid to give them the MLB contract they deserved), etc just isn't how it works. Twins (like most teams, but especially mid-to-small market ones) have assumed some risks with this club. One of them is in the rotation, where they are counting on a rehab effort (Paddack) and 3 guys with relatively thin resumes (Ober, Ryan, Varland) to carry them alongside their ace, and with reasonably good health (being challenged with DeSclafani going down and very possibly out). They seem to believe that Festa and SWR will be ready to take on MLB hitters if needed.
  23. jmlease1
    I think the "trust" issue on Ober & Ryan is a little overblown. Ober got that call and didn't pitch that great so he got pulled to hopefully keep the game within reach with a fully-loaded bullpen. Ryan was pitching in an elimination game, so why not throw everything you have at it, especially with Pablo Lopez ready to go for game 4? (unfortunately, the offense didn't show in game 4) There weren't exactly a ton of opportunities for either in the playoffs. I'm a little concerned about the depth, because having DeSclafani pull a Mahle isn't great. but Varland deserves to start. I've always been a little higher on SWR than others, so I still feel like there's some depth to draw on later in the season, and it's kind of nice to have all 5 starters be on the good side of 30 for once. I wouldn't expect this rotation to be as strong as last season's, but it's hardly a trash fire. I like what we have in there better than any season in the last 5 years excepting 2023. I mean, in 2020 we were still relying on Randy Dobnak & the corpse of Rich Hill. 2021 had Matt Shoemaker, JA Happ, and Griffin Jax getting 44 effin' starts. 2022 we were trying to plug the holes with Dylan Bundy & Chris Archer. I'd certainly rather have Varland & Paddack be my last 2 guys in the rotation than any of those guys.
  24. jmlease1
    It's not really an issue if you have less power at 1B if you're generating it in other areas, so long as you're not just handing out tons of ABs to players that are poor offensive contributors as a whole. If Correa is back to his usual self, with Buxton and Jeffers also generating real power production then it doesn't matter as much if 1B isn't at league average SLG, so long as you're getting other contributions. It'll be interesting to see if Santana can SLG .400 or better this season; if he does I think we'll be just fine with our production from 1B between him and Kirilloff and maybe a little of Julien or possibly Farmer. If he's hovering around the Mendoza Line for his BA and SLG closer to .350 then his overall production isn't going to be good enough for him to be getting starting playing time. I do think this is a really deep lineup with a lot of players who have high ceilings and not too many low floors. They should score a lot of runs, and there's better balance this year than last, presuming average levels of health.
  25. jmlease1
    I hope Castro keeps improving, that would be a terrific result for the Twins. Not sure if he will, but he does seem to be finding an approach that works for him and how he can be effective at the plate. The baserunning has been really good, and paired with his defensive flexibility it makes him a real weapon. The fact that you can use Castro as a PH or PR later in a game and not have to make a significant shuffle (or any change at all!) to your defensive alignment and keep quality defenders in place is pretty impactful. the 1 for 1 substitution gives you more weapons to deploy as needed, and Castro's ability to slot in at 6 positions is one of the things i love about having him on the bench. He's going to get playing time. It's interesting to look back at his time in Detroit and wonder what happened there. Castro had been a successful base-stealer in Cleveland's system, but once he got to Detroit that part of his game basically vanished. I don't think it turned back on last season simply because of larger bases and fewer pickoffs.
×
×
  • Create New...