jmlease1

Whether this move works out will really come down to whether or not Archer is healthy. Because he's decent enough even at his worst to hold down the 5th spot and chew up innings for you in a way that the collective disaster of Happ, Shoemaker, Jax, Dobnak, and Barnes could not last season. (that's 58 starts we gave to guys with ERA's of 6 or more. I'm rounding up on Barnes. Sorry, Charlie) Also, the only way Ober or Ryan are not in the rotation this season is if they start the season terribly and get sent down to AAA to get back on track. (Which could happen) But there's basically no chance they're not in the rotation on opening day. I also think there's very little chance of completing a deal for Manea or Montas before the season starts, unless Oakland suddenly comes down in price; every indicator right now is they want the sun and the moon and are willing to wait until the deadline to make a move if they don't get it. Fine: I'll play chicken on that one. My prediction on Archer: 22 starts, 130 innings, ERA around 4.50. Raises the floor, and holds down the fort until more of the next wave are ready. Probably has 2 stints on the IL.

It's funny (well, not all that funny, really), but even if Archer pitches no better than he did last season with the Rays and is just healthier...it'll still be a significant improvement over what we got out of the 58 (58!) starts we gave to Happ, Shoemaker, Jax, Dobnak, and Barnes last season. Of that 5, only Barnes had an ERA under 6 (congrats, Charlie: 5.92 was the best of the worst). That's how dreadful our starting pitching was last season. If Archer can lend basic competence to the group, then he's a decent veteran addition. If he can't stay healthy and can't perform, we can walk away pretty easily. I'm hoping this is a "raise the floor" move that helps us hold the line and let what should be a pretty good offense keep us in games. I'm a big believer that the easiest way to improve your team from being bad to good is to stop giving innings to bad pitchers and ABs to bad hitters. Reduce the amount of time you let terrible players on the field. We had a lot of starts and innings from terrible starters last season. Healthy, Archer should be at least ok. Would I have preferred someone with a better recent track record and greater likelihood of higher value? Sure. But as a raise the floor move, I'm still happy with this. (removing all those ABs from likes of Jake Cave, Astudillo, Rooker, Refsnyder, et al will help too...)

Look, I'm still wondering why they don't shift Kepler over to LF (his range fits nicely there) and let Kirilloff play in right (where his range might be less of an issue and his arm plays just fine) but they seem to have zero interest in that for...reasons? Regardless, the Twins need to get Kirilloff's bat in the lineup and LF appears to be the easiest spot right now. It would be great if Larnach has the bounceback season; I still believe in his talent and it's one of the reasons I didn't want to deal him this off-season (the other being we would have been selling low on a player. I'm always baffled by the belief of some people that the best time to deal a player is after they've hit a bump in their development path as if the other team you're trading with wouldn't be aware of it and adjust their valuation of the player accordingly) I would include Martin on the list of prospects here, even if he's not playing OF right now. There's no question that he can play here and his bat could force him into the lineup. If Miranda takes control of 3B there might not be any other spots open for full-time ABs in the near future if he's not going to stick at SS. I wouldn't hate Martin in LF in 2023 if Kirilloff shifts to 1B and Larnach is still scraping.

It's not a high impact move, but it is some decent insurance with Dobnak still fighting injury. I think I like Archer as a reclamation project more than Cueto right now? If Oakland is asking for the sun & the moon for Manea and/or Montas, then this seems like it might be a better decision than selling low on some prospects and giving up a load of capital. The contract certainly is one that makes sense. Might as well try this move now rather than hope to get a sensible deal from Oakland. If Archer can stay healthy, he could be a quality pitcher to chew up some innings. Worth a try and not too hard to move on from if he craps out. Buys us a little time so we don't need to jam Winder or someone else in before they might be ready, especially since it's starting to look like they're planning on having Duran pitch out of the bullpen?

Here's mine, based on who is currently on the roster and who I think is most likely to be starting: Buxton (CF) Polanco (2B) Correa (SS) Kirilloff (LF) Sano (1B) Kepler (RF) Jeffers (C) Arraez (DH) Urshela (3B) Obviously there's some opportunity for movement. Arraez could easily be flipped with Kepler and so could Urshela and Jeffers (I figure Urshela might fit a bit better hitting in front of Buxton, but YMMV). This is a standard lineup, independent of pitching matchups. If we choose to stack RH vs LHP or vice-versa, it can and would change. I'm a big fan of Kirilloff and I think he can really hit if healthy and his LH bat behind Correa would play nicely. That said, Correa doesn't have big splits between LHP/RHP (part of what makes him so valuable) so there's a lot of options. But to me the best 4 hitters on this roster Correa, Buxton, Polanco, and Kirilloff in some order (Arraez is no more than 5th to me; his OBP is great and he will rack up hits, but I really don't see him hitting for significant power basically ever and his knees will keep him from adding much on speed too). I'm sure we're going to see more than a few games with Sanchez dropping in at DH and Arraez playing 3B as well. But this is the lineup I'd run out.

Yeah, I have to think that Palacios falls into the "depth" category for this year? He could be an interesting utility option for the Twins going forward as they've done a nice job reviving his career. There's no question, this is a big year for Lewis: if he gets in a healthy season and looks like he can both hit at an advanced level and stick at the toughest defensive position on the field (catcher is a closer second, IMHO) then that really put the Twins in a lot better shape for it to matter less what Correa does. If Correa has a major injury then the team is in the same boat that a lot of teams are in if one of their best players goes down: in trouble and scrambling to fill. Gordon or Urshela can fill in for the short term, and Polanco could slide over if there were no other reasonable options...but it would be a huge loss. But that's the way it usually goes when stars go down: it's a huge loss. You simply can't expect the Twins to have someone ready to step in at every position and replace the production and ability. If they can do it at 3-4 positions then you're doing pretty well, right? Right now it looks like our best depth is at 2B, 3B, OF (I still believe in Larnach, and Martin is close to ready IMHO). If we lose an all-star at SS it's probably going to hurt us a lot. But that's the way it goes.

Nice that they think that highly of Henriquez; a good reminder that the Garver deal wasn't just about SS acquisition. Steer is an interesting prospect; if he can trim back the Ks a bit and maintain the power he can be a quality asset. Glad to see others find him interesting too.

I never know what to think about spring training results. you can't count on them to be predictive of how a player is going to do during the year, but at the same time if a guy isn't getting results it makes you very nervous at best. I hope Ober & Winder are looking strong and healthy. I still want the Twins to sign (or trade for) another pitcher, but both of those guys are going to be important to the Twins this season. It'll be great if Polanco gets out to a fast start this season; he was pretty rough out the gate last year coming off the injury,

There's no real problem with depth for 3B: Urshela & Arraez can handle the position right now in MLB with no real questions, Miranda looks ready even if he doesn't have MLB experience yet, Martin is coming up through the minors so thinks look fine right now. The only real issue is we don't know what kind of offensive production we're going to get out of Urshela, so for now there's a real potential downgrade from Donaldson. The projection systems tend to have him falling about the midpoint or maybe a bit more between his 2019 season and 2021, and that seems pretty reasonable, which gets you solid starter numbers but nothing exceptional. Arraez's lack of power limits his upside, but he's in a similar boat. Between the two, it's fairly likely we'll get good production. What I want to see if Miranda seizing the job with a vengeance. He'll have some struggles, I'm sure and is definitely more of a bat-first player at this point, but the upside is much higher. Will he match Donaldson's production from last year? Maybe not yet...but I think he could get close. Urshela feels better suited to more of a utility role (and I'd be happy to have him be a defensive replacement for Miranda at time too) and with arraez hitting lefty, you could protect Miranda against some of the toughest RHP as well. I think there's enough ABs in there for everyone? It's also important to remember when thinking about replacing production that Donaldson played less than 100 games at 3B last season and his defense was starting to slip some as he becomes less mobile. but I think Miranda will be the 3B of the future for us and will be a fine player. Maybe Martin comes charging through and takes it from him, but I'm happy to worry about that when it happens. Depth looks good for this season with multiple players that should be able to handle the job. Maybe Cavaco starts to get it together and becomes the next guy?

Lot of good here. The biggest criticism is how much better can it get? Can't be mad about that. It'll be interesting to see how Polanco does with a new double-play partner, and if there's defensive improvement (hardly an outrageous proposition for a player coming off his first year in MLB at the position who is in the prime of his career to add a little on that side of things) then he should be contending for an all-star spot easily. I'll be interested to see where his BABIP lands at the end of the season; last year he was 25 points below his career average and he'll be an interesting case study to see if it's just a little bad luck or his evolution in approach to put more power into his offensive game. Polanco was also part of the Legion of Slow Starts last season that help doom the team; it'll be very interesting to see how he does out the gate this year. (as a switch hitter, he's even more valuable; you can slot him in wherever you want in the top half of the lineup.) he's a heck of a player and that extension is looking better all the time. I like the depth at this position, even if a lot of it is coming off players who have failed out (or might fail out) at SS. We have a lot of guys in the system and on the team that can jump in at 2B if Polanco goes down. None of them are likely to match his performance (at least not right away) but that's because Polanco is an all-star caliber player and there aren't very many teams who have those guys sitting on the bench. hip-hip, Jorge!

well, don't get your prescription filled just yet: I'd guess Kirilloff is more likely to start in the OF and get time at 1B when Sano needs a break or is at DH. I wouldn't expect Kirilloff to spend much time on the bench at all when Sano is in the field.

well, you can't really expect to go into the season having a clear backup to the backup at every position? Sano is the starter, Kirilloff is the backup, and if both of them go down (or are totally ineffective) then they'll probably look at Miranda (who has gotten a little time there but not much, but could probably handle it), Sanchez (who hasn't played there, but would give a big target to throw to and might be able to handle it), or Urshela (who if he can backup SS almost certainly has enough glove to survive at 1B) for this season. Hell, Kepler could could shift down there in a pinch if they don't want to let Rooker on the dirt. They've got some guys that could spend some time there. Next season they'll probably be looking for a backup/platoon option if Sano moves and Sabato isn't ready, but there's always a few of those decent hitters/ok defenders out there on the FA market that you're happy to pay $5M in FA, but not $8M in arbitration. So while we don't have a hot prospect buring up the minors right now...1B options are available.

Depth chart looks fine at 1B. We'll see whether Sabato is a real player and might eventually contend for time (I'm a little skeptical because he was so bad in low A as a college player entering the pros; instead of dominating younger competition, he was trash and got a promotion on scholarship. To be fair, he ran with it and lit things up in high A, but it's a smaller sample size of success.) It'll be a little interesting to see what happens with Sano after this season, but the Twins are in good shape. If Sano has a great season, they can run it back with him for another go. If he's just ok (or worse) they can move on. And there are FA options on the market every year for guys who can play at 1B. I think Kirilloff is going to be a terrific player as long as that damn wrist holds up.

seems like a good fit to be part of the reliever churn as they fill out the back of the bullpen...and maybe he can be something more? Fits with my theory of bullpen building, so I'm good with it. We have guys on the back end of the 40-man that can be dropped, but more importantly, maybe a few guys on it go away as part of a deal for a starting pitcher?

The problem I have in giving up anyone off this top 5 list is that for 3 of them we would be selling low. Ryan isn't going to be traded because then we're just upgrading a starting slot, not filling one. Miranda is the only one we would be selling "high" on, and there seems to be a perception (manufactured, perhaps, by teams hoping to get him cheaper?) that his season might have been a fluke. Martin, Lewis, and Balazovic are all coming off seasons where they had varying degrees of injury and difficulty, and when you sell low on a prospect it usually means you're adding in more guys...which increases the odds of the whole thing backfiring on you. I'm happier moving prospects that are rising, like what we did with Petty. He's a terrific talent, but could have a ton of bumps in the road. But the potential projections on him are terrific. All of the guys on this list are getting downgraded to some extent because they're close to the majors (or already there) and prospect evaluators almost always rank potential over actuality. Because you can always talk yourself into projecting development. The reality is, you should value guys that are closer to the majors more, because there fewer obstacles in their development path and you should know more about who they are and will be as players. But it doesn't seem to work that way...

I'd prefer to keep Duran in the rotation and have him working in AAA as a start to get ready for a first call-up as a MLB starter. We're going to need additional starters during the season even if we sign/trade for another guy in the rotation; you just don't get through a season without needing starts from 8-12 pitchers. Duran seems perfectly situated to be a reinforcement this year. Let him work that way and see if he can stay healthy for a season and let him seize the opportunity when it comes. Yes, you can move someone back into a rotation after testing them in the bullpen (Thank you, Johan) but it's really hard to do successfully in the same season I think and the Twins are going to need players like Duran, Winder, etc to come up and start IMHO. If we're going to send someone to the 'pen, I'd vote Strotman, who also has a plus fastball and might be better suited to the bullpen anyways.

So...2 MLB starters (right now, Arraez is starting either as our DH or 3B and Kepler is still our starting RF) one under team control and one with a team-friendly contract, our best starting pitching prospect (#4 overall), two more of our top 20 prospects, AND another pitcher? For Frankie Montas? Talk about buying high.

I'm pretty good with this move. He's got a good track record of success, and has been deadly against righties over his career without getting smashed by lefties. I wouldn't expect him to be the same guy he was in Seattle, but if he lands near his career averages then he'll be a solid bullpen piece. At $2.5M he's easy enough to move on from if it turns out that he's cooked. I expect a lot of his problems at the start of last season were related to his long layoff? I'm not a fan of dropping big money on most relievers (Atlanta is dropping almost $40M on three relievers; there's pretty decent odds that one of those is going to go bad for them) and the premium paid for a "proven closer" is usually a waste. I prefer the way the Twins seem to be doing it: limited multi-year deals, not overpaying, developing from within, and looking for guys who have some interesting peripherals and/or an elite pitch to work with. Right now the bullpen looks like: Rogers, Duffey, Alcala, Thielbar, Smith, Cotton, and Garza Jr, with one spot to be fought over between Moran, Jax, Stashak, and Thorpe. Looks solid enough. Hopefully Duffey has a bit of a bounceback season, but Alcala looks like he's rising, and I'm a big fan of Moran's potential.

Why not? unless you start stacking lefty hitters in your lineup (which leaves you vulnerable to relievers in later innings) he's going to either have to be in the top two or towards the bottom, unless you think he should be in the heart of the order? His lack of power seems to cut against him batting 4th-5th, and his bad knees and lack of speed maybe don't make him the best choice to lead off. I suppose you could swap him and Kepler in my proposed order, but I'm not sure it makes that much difference. We're likely to start 4 RH, 4 LH, and one switch hitter in the lineup, so alternating guys makes a fair amount of sense. No breaks in the lineup, and Arraez gets to hit in front of someone with a decent amount of pop in Jeffers this way.

I'm not worried about DH production. Arraez has bad knees and DH is a fine way to get his bat in the lineup. Sano will gets some run there (with Kirilloff shifting in to 1B, I suspect), Sanchez will get some ABs in there, Miranda will probably get some time, maybe even Kirilloff or Larnach. It's great to have a primary DH when it's someone who hits like Cruz, but otherwise, why not use it as a rotational spot to keep a quality bat in the lineup while giving a guy's legs a break? We have enough guys who play corner spots who can add offensive value that rotating makes sense to get them playing time and will hopefully keep people healthy. It's not like we're going to be running Chip Hale out there as a DH again.

It would have been nice to not have the opt-out after year 1, but when you have the opportunity to sign a player of this talent you have to do it. And while everyone is predicting that Correa will opt-out after year one (and it is fairly likely) you never know with these things. He could decide that he likes it here or that the money isn't going to be better (or the teams that might have it aren't where he wants to go) and stick around for a second year. You don't know for sure and with the talent wave we have coming through, this could be an attractive place for him to play. The odds are he'll opt-out after one year, but it's not a guarantee. But the Twins are well-positioned to manage that one way or the other. Now we don't have to push Martin or Lewis up too fast and they can get a normal development year. Urshela doesn't have to be stretched as an every day SS and can slide into a utility role. It's good use of our money, but doesn't keep us from being able to lock up our young players down the line or add more pitching.

Correa is a fantastic fit for the Twins. He's an impact player on offense who hits lefties & righties, home or away and provides 20 hr pop at a position where power is harder to find...and does it while not being a K-machine. An average season by him at the plate is an excellent one, the kind of performance the twins haven't gotten...ever? His defense is elite and he makes the routine plays and the spectacular ones. He's a complete player and fills the hole wonderfully. I'll be interested to see where he hits in this lineup; I'm guessing he might land 3rd? Maybe it goes: Buxton Polanco Correa Kirilloff Sano Kepler Miranda Arraez Jeffers That looks pretty fun!

welp, I will admit I did not see that coming! I figured Story was the guy, if we were going to nail SS. Correa seemed out of the realm. Can't say I'm mad about it! Gotta say, this is where I want them to spend this kind of money. Sign Pineda and I feel awfully good about the Twins offseason and the potential of this team to contend in 2022. If Correa is healthy then he's an all-star, maybe an MVP candidate. That's awesome. (This move might even be enough to get people to stop complaining about losing Rortvedt)

Byron Buxton has played more games over the past three seasons than Mitch Garver (admittedly, it's close).

The Twins traded their best two right-handed hitters? Byron Buxton would like a word.