jmlease1

That draft list is reminder why the previous regime is no longer here: Stewart & Jay being top 10 picks who busted sandwiching Nick Gordon who needed 8 years to become a viable pro is pretty rough. The current regimes back-to-back of Cavaco & Sabato is pretty bad, but both were drafted outside the top 10. Missing on high draft picks hurts, even with baseball being the hardest sport to predict draft success. Twins have definitely had injuries derail some of their best prospects. I will admit to thinking that Fernando Romero was going to be something; probably should have looked closer at his performance over his tools back then. He was never that good after A-ball and flamed out pretty quickly once he had to face the higher quality hitters. I'm still really high on Kirilloff. He's so talented with the bat and if this latest surgery has actually fixed the problem then he could fly.

sigh...yeah.

The more I think about this, the more I'm thinking that the team is worried a couple of guys aren't going to be ready for Opening Day (Kirilloff, Polanco are the two that seem to be the most likely?) and they don't have a lot of confidence in Nick Gordon filling in at an infield spot. I still feel like I'd rather have Larnach on the roster (I'm still pretty high on him), but he does have an option left. Not that he really has much to prove at AAA really, and I think his upside on offense more than offsets any superiority Kepler has on defense, but maybe they're also entertaining Kepler deals as camp continues and an injury reveals itself on another team. Solano seems like an ok platoon guy, and after last year's nightmare I love having depth, but I still think we'd probably be better off with Gordon & Larnach getting Kepler's ABs, and by adding Votto & Solano to this roster there's not a lot of room for Larnach.

It's an interesting idea. While Lewis got a big signing bonus and hasn't been running broke like so many minor leaguers, that was quite a few years ago and it's not the kind of generational money that a deal like this would be. There might be some attraction for Lewis after the second surgery, no matter how confident he is in his abilities. I feel like it's worth exploring. I think the numbers are probably a little light, just considering where Lewis' upside is and where baseball economics have gone in the past few years?

It's the sort of move a team makes when they have a guy coming back from injury that isn't going to be ready for Opening Day with the potential for it to linger longer, IMHO. Which makes me nervous. I was expecting the Twins to sign someone to a minor-league deal who was trying to hang on for another year or work their way back to MLB, not add someone on a MLB contract. I'd hope the value of the deal wouldn't guarantee them a roster spot all season? He's not a bad player or anything, but the ceiling is limited.

Yankees did win 99 games last season. more importantly, they're in our heads in a way that the Astros are not (even though we actually performed better against the Yankees than we did against the Astros last season). but your point is taken. i don't know if Miranda is better than Stanton right now or not. Stanton is more proven, but coming off what looks like a worse year (even if the OPS+ is comparable, Stanton was worse in the 2nd half and missed a lot of time; Miranda recovered from a rocky start and finished out the year pretty well) and with some serious injury issues...maybe, maybe not. Yankees have kind of a weird lineup.

The fear is, of course, that the Twins don't see him as the 7th/8th guy in the bullpen but instead as more like the 4th/5th guy. Which is the sort of aggro that makes us not want him on the team at all. But you are absolutely correct in that there are a lot fewer of those "who's going to do X or Y" on this team this season. The questions are much more around "can X get/stay healthy?" or "can Y improve on last season". the roles are fairly well set, unless there a significant injury or major underperformance in camp.

Twins already know Martin is good enough to slot into the OF if needed; the question is whether or not he can be a quality defender on the dirt too. Seems a little unlikely at SS, but there's indicators that he could do quite well at 2B. He's an on-base machine with good speed and superior baserunning ability, so he doesn't need a lot of power to be a very good offensive player in MLB. But we'd sure like to see some. He's had trouble showing it at AA, but showed good flashes in the AFL and certainly did fine in his last two years of college. Martin's only had 2 years in the minors, was probably rushed to AA and had his development disrupted by a trade...so who is the real Martin? I'm still a fan. He could be a great 4th OF for this team as early as next season; he could backup Buxton well, and as a righty bat be a nice fit amongst the LH corner OFs we have. I like his speed and baserunning, which would add a different dimension to the Twins offense.

A fine list, and probably mine as well. Tony O was great, but I'd rate Mauer a little higher if forced, because of the defense. Mauer was more consistently good on D at a tougher position, and even after moving off catcher developed into a Gold Glove caliber defender at a new position, which is pretty unusual. Harmon, Rodney, and Kirby are easy picks unless you fold in the Senators years. Johan is an interesting case; the peak was insanely great. I think I want my Team Mt. Rushmore guys to play at least 10 years for the club. It's a little arbitrary I admit, but you have to find criteria somewhere. Bert has enough seasons in MN...barely. The last years weren't as great, though, even if they did include a title. Buxton could get there, depending on how the next 5-6 years go. He's got the talent, no question, just needs the health. Can Correa contend? He could make me reconsider my "10 years" rule if he dominates the next 5-6 years, even if he doesn't get through all years of the deal.

I'd be really interested to know how many times Pagan's sinker got hammered and how many times it was his fastball but with a few mph taken off it (some of the pitch trackers sure seem to struggle IDing which is which). Without having all of the Twins internal stats and tracking it'd be hard to know for sure, but I wasn't clear whether he was lobbing over the blah "sinker" or trying to dial back his fastball to get a strike when he started getting into trouble. If it was pretty much always the sinker, then you can start fixing some of that by eliminating the bad pitch. If a big part of the issue is whether or not he can control the fastball enough to throw it for strikes and he eases up on the velocity when he gets behind in the count and doesn't want to walk another guy...that's harder to fix. He did seem to do better with the curve than the slider, but it's a pretty small sample size. He's got good stuff, but he needs to be able to find the strike zone more consistently. I'm rooting for him, like I do for all Twins, but I would not have have kept him. I think they could have found a veteran righty for roughly the same cost with a better track record and less need of "fixing", and it sounds like they could have gotten at least a C prospect for Pagan, so I would have moved on. Especially considering just how much damage he's done to the psyche of the fans. There's a real chance that the Twins are stuck in a sunk cost fallacy with Pagan and will give him too many chances in an effort to prove that they were right about him all along. Hope I'm wrong. relievers are volatile enough I could be very wrong, and at least there's evidence of actual changes happening not just "he's in the best shape of his life" or other Spring Training nonsense. But he really makes me twitch.

It's going to be really interesting to see how the system develops over the next couple of seasons. They're looking at graduating quite a bit of talent over a period of 3 years or so, combined with having made some trades of prospects for MLB talent, so it's a little thinner and more vulnerable than in recent years. That said, the goal of a system isn't to be highly ranked, it's to turn guys into productive major leaguers for the club, or flip as assets for the club. I think they're going to need some of their international signings to pay out in order to keep the pipeline flowing. Hopefully they do well with the upcoming picks and can add high-end talent as well. The weakness at catcher is definitely an area of concern...but I think that's going to be a problem for a lot of teams. It's one of the toughest positions to fill with a player who can both hit, receive, and throw. It's arguably harder than SS to find; clubs tend not to accept a flawed candidate at SS, but catching is so limited that you'll pass along a guy who is well below-average in one of those areas if they can compete in the others. At SS, guys get moved off to another position rather than settle. Hopefully the Twins can start finding some options to add to the system, because the need will always be there. It's going to be interesting to see how the pitchers develop. There's some really interesting options. Is there an ace in there? Hard to say. Most evaluators won't rank any starter as an ace (no one wants to go out on that limb) so it's not worth getting upset if they call a pitcher a middle or back of the rotation upside guy. That's butt-covering 101 to me. If you have enough quality guys that can fall in that range, don't be shocked if one emerges.

Jax is guaranteed a spot (as you noted elsewhere), Alcala is likely if he's healthy/effective in spring training (if he's not effective they might try to slip him on the IL). Coulombe isn't on the 40-man, so he's unlikely to be on the squad; Moran is a more likely LHP option. They seem to like Megill, so I'd say he has an inside shot at that last spot, but that's why Ober seems unlikely to make the team: they're not keeping 6 starters. If they did, I'm sure Megill would be the most likely one to get dropped, but while keeping 6 starters might keep the best 13 pitchers on the squad, there's no real need for a 6th starter with this squad. there's no one that looks like they'll need extra days off between starts, is there?

who are you dropping from the bullpen? because that's where they have to take a player off if they keep 6 starters. The rule is in place this year: max 13 pitchers. They clearly like having 8 guys in the bullpen, and despite the fondest wishes from the fanbase, they're sticking with Pagan. So who goes? Megill? Moran?

I hope beyond hope Buxton has a healthy season. he's the most exciting Twins player in a very long time, a highlight waiting to happen. And everything we know says he's a good dude too.

I probably would start the transition on Sands now; if no starter gets dinged during camp the AAA rotation is already full with Winder, Varland, Woods Richardson, Henriquez, Balazovic, and Sanchez...where is Sands going to get a start? I think it's fair to not move Winder yet, but Sands really looks like a reliever to me if he's going to make it.

How about leaving the guy who was a platinum glove winner 2 years ago stay at SS until he plays himself off it, especially not in favor of a guy who has never played SS as well as Correa? Don't get stuck on the supposed "bad wheel"; SF & NY were using that to try and forecast 8-10 years down the road, not 2-5. Correa was willing to slide down to 3B in NY because they already had Lindor at SS. He's not going to move for Brooks Lee (or even Royce Lewis) any time soon. There are real questions about whether Lee can stick at SS (making it in MLB as a SS is really really hard!), especially since his best tools are in his bat. It's no knock on Lee to think that his future is likely at 3B or 2B, and slotting him in at 3B in 2024 next to Correa could be the makings of a fantastic infield. The only guys that are truly guaranteed of a starting job in MLB right now (assuming everyone is healthy) are Buxton, Correa, and Polanco. Everyone else is going to have to sing for their supper, even if their presumed to be the starter for now. Brooks Lee is one of the guys that's going to keep pushing everyone, and that's great. Maybe, just maybe he'll push Polanco too. But Lee is also going to have to compete with Julien, Martin, and Lewis for a spot if/when it opens. Which is a good spot to be in too. Definitely eases any pain of trading Spenser Steer.

Brooks Lee had about as good a start as anyone could have wished for. Love it. Hope he continues to crush it. He looks like he'll slide down to 3B nicely, with Correa ensconced at SS for the next several years at least...and right now it seems unlikely that Lee is going to sit in the minors for very long. I think he could be ready to play in MLB this season. But I find myself caught between two poles on this one: I want him to hit and play so well that he's pushing his way up and knocking on the door with his talent and drive. At the same time, I'm hoping the Twins don't have a bunch of injuries on the MLB roster and guys like Miranda & Polanco are having the seasons they are capable of and the MLB club doesn't need him to rush up to the majors. Maybe he gets some time in MLB in 2023, but I suspect he's starting for us in 2024. I just think he's too good and too driven not to be here sooner rather than later.

The tools are still great, and last season he showed just how well those tools can translate into production. He's been unlucky recently: the pandemic year cost him a developmental season (although the Twins smartly got him into the Saint Paul "camp" as i recall) and then he blew out the knee in a fluke slip. For him to come back into full-bore competition looking as good as ever after essentially 2 years of no real baseball and dealing with a significant injury says a lot. He's got the makeup and the talent to be great (and seems like a really good dude too). I hope he comes back all the way. I think he will; he's got that extra something special about him. I'm not sure where he lands positionally, but I think he might be the super utility guy who plays starters minutes without having a set starting position. (I'm not ready to throw Polanco out with the trash like some people seem to be; he's signed through 2025 and he's a damn good player) A 2024 hitting roster of: Jeffers, Kirilloff, Polanco, Correa, Lee, Larnach, Buxton, Gordon, Miranda, Martin, Lewis, Vazquez, and Julien could be kinda awesome.

It's a fair way to look at it. I still wouldn't have kept Pagan for all the aggro he'll cause twins fans even before a pitch is thrown this season, but I can understand the logic. And I'm still concerned the team has talked themselves into his improvement being real more than it might actually be because of the sunk-cost fallacy...but as a fungible middle reliever it could work out. I hope I'm wrong and he does well and has turned the proverbial corner. But of all the players on this roster, he's the one I feel the least enthusiastic about making it work, he's the one that instinctively gives me the most heartburn.

Huzzah, a new year has begun and hope reigns eternal! (but not for some people at Twins Daily who prefer to look for the downsides) I'd much rather look at the possibilities for goodness in this squad, especially because it's far too late for any kind of drastic revision. There are some exciting young players who will be getting their chance to show they can stick in MLB, prove they can stay healthy for a full season, etc. I'm looking forward to seeing Kirilloff and Larnach, and hope they can stay healthy. i think it's the only thing holding either of them back. I'm looking forward to seeing how Nick Gordon fits on this roster (a little super utility where he plays occasionally at 2B/3B/LF/RF?) and whether he can improve his hitting another notch, now that his health problems seem to be resolved. I can't wait to see how Miranda does locked in at a primary position and with a year of MLB under his belt. Did he get better in the off-season, or will there be a sophomore slump? Can Jeffers get right and be a real asset in the batters box and not just behind the plate? I'm excited about our veterans in the field: Polanco is an all-star caliber player, Correa and Buxton are MVP talents, and Vazquez bring real steadiness behind the plate. (I'll admit to not being excited about Kepler, who I feel may have already peaked or Gallo who wasn't where I wanted them to go with an OF signing. but I'm rooting for them both!) Michael A. Taylor is a highlight reel waiting to happen in the OF. It's the deepest rotation we've seen in a long time; I can't recall the last time I looked at a Twins roster and thought, "hey even if someone tweaks a hammy in Spring Training...we're good!" I'm a huge Joe Ryan fan: I love watching him pitch. he might not be the best starter on the roster (but then again he could be!), but for me he's the most fun to watch. I'm excited to see what Pablo Lopez brings to the table; he's got serious talent and had a great first half last season. It's great to have Kenta Maeda back. he was great during the pandemic-shortened year, so I'm hoping he's all the way back and ready to roll. We didn't really get to see what Mahle can do, and I wanna see it. Gray is steady as anyone. the bullpen has lightning in it with Duran, who is crazy good. I adore Moran's change-up and how silly it makes guys look. Maybe I'm wrong about Pagan! (I want to be wrong about Pagan?) I think Lopez will be good now that he gets to settle in. there's loads of things to be excited about with this team. I'm exciting about the start of the season and I can't wait to see how they do. yes, there are questions. yes, there are injury concerns. But none of them mean the worst case scenario has to happen. The best case scenario could happen too, and Spring Training is the time to look for the good and enjoy the fact that baseball is coming back to us and that right soon. Go, Twins!

It's 199 plate appearances, not ABs. Dude only had 136 ABs because of the gazillion walks he took. 1 HR every 15.1 ABs is pretty dang good, especially in the FSL at 19. Over 500 ABs (he's never going to get 600 with a walk rate like that!) we're talking 30+ HRs. He also hit 5 doubles and 3 triples. The SLG is impressive, the OBP is other-worldly. Sucks that he picked up a knee injury sliding into a base, but at least it's the meniscus, which should be a much easier and faster rehab. I think he'll come back all the way on that one without much of an issue, but YNK. Can wait to see him at cedar rapids and what he can do.

I think there's an average amount of question marks here, so that seems about right. I'm surprised so many people think Jax is a question mark: he was more than solid last season, is in his prime, and the changes to his pitch mix and move the 'pen seems to suit him very well. I'm not too worried about Duran, Thielbar, and Jax. Alcala has the talent, but needs to show he can recover from injury. Lopez needs to show he's first half guy not post-trade guy. So some questions, but serious upside. Moran is middle relief until he shows better command/control, but he's certainly good enough to hold down that slot right now. that change-up is deadly, his splits are fine and he can pitch multiple innings. Only question is really his ceiling: middle relief if he's always this wild, higher leverage if he locks it down (and out of the league if he loses it entirely, but...that's every reliever, right?) Megill & Pagan have the most questions, but they're also the most fringe parts of the 'pen. Megill has shown signs, but is a little too hittable to be a consistent reliever right now. If he locks it down, he'll be a guy, if not they'll cycle him out for Sands or someone like that. Pagan has the stuff, but no one in Twins fandom has any faith in him for high leverage situations. (for good reason) In middle relief, he's probably ok, but I still wouldn't have kept him. the ceiling is pretty good on this group, the floor isn't bad, and Duran is the only one where it'd be particularly crushing if he flamed out/got hurt.

agree 100%. If Gordon can be passable at 3b, then he becomes an option for if Miranda needs a day off or if there's a particularly nasty RHP coming up, etc. the more positional flexibility Gordon has, the better off he is, and the better off the Twins are in maximizing the utility of their bench. I don't think he'll be a pick to be a regular at 3B. Ever. I think if Miranda goes to the IL for any length of time, they will call up Julien, or Martin, or Lee (or possibly Lewis, depending on where we are in the season) and manage time at 3B primarily with the call-up and/or Farmer. But as a LH bat option off the bench who could slide in at 3B if needed...that would be helpful. I would also test Gordon at 3B in Spring Training. We know he can play LF. He can be the emergency backup in CF. He's not going to be good defensively in the infield, but if he can be not-awful then it opens up options even for pinch-hitting. He's out of options, he's got a decent hit tool that's improved now that he's finally got his health in order (that gastro-intestinal stuff was pretty rough on him) that makes him a useful player, especially if he can pass at as many positions as possible.

Right. It's also important to note that you don't need to throw a change-up at all to be a successful MLB starter. If you have three pitches that are all above average, you don't need to throw a change-up just to throw a change. Fastball-slider/curveball-cutter is a pitch mix that will do just fine in keeping hitters off balance. You're still changing speeds within that, it's just different. I'd rather have someone throwing Raya's mix with command and comfort than lobbing in meatball changeups and hoping the hitter gets fooled.

i think the "ghost runner" rule is a reasonable attempt to try and keep games from going on and on and on...and if they do, to increase the odds of there being some action in them. As a game, the lack of a clock on the competition is a blessing and a curse, because it adds a level of timelessness and means teams are only playing against the other side, not against the clock. but it also means it's the slowest of all the major sports. With pro soccer you're in and out in about 2 hours whereas baseball often runs you 3+. Looking for ways to keep games at 10 innings or less isn't a bad idea, especially since with this rule it still follows the core tenet of baseball that to win the game you have to face down the other team. I thought I was going to hate it and it turns out it didn't really bother me much at all. Position players coming out and throwing 48 mph curveballs and knucklers and so on is fun once and a while, but it's happening way too much. It gets to be a mockery, and frankly it slows the game down there too. I'm not opposed to a pitch clock, because I'm bored with guys meditating on the mound. I'm equally sick of hitters who want to step out and adjust equipment on every pitch. Stop dithering and play! fewer pitching changes would help, but pitchers that just move a game along will help at least as much if not more. Getting through a game in 2:25 is wonderful! More Mark Buehrles, please.