jmlease1

The problem is the in-house replacement aren't all that plentiful; the most likely options are: Gordon, who had a dreadful year along with a major injury. Larnach, who hasn't shown he can adjust to MLB pitching once they make their first adjustment to him. After that it's....Martin? Who has never played a game in MLB, but still might be needed to backup CF. Looking at the big picture is correct, and what I see is that the Twins are a playoff team in 2024, but don't have a lot of corner OF depth that's close in the system. The best prospects to fill those roles are in AA or A ball and are realistically another year away. (Rodriguez, Rosario, and Jenkins currently). Going into last season it was easier to look at moving on from Kepler because Gordon was coming off a good season, Larnach had promise, and Wallner was knocking at the door and the team had signed Gallo (whom we didn't know would be a zero after a hot month). If we move on from Kepler, we'll need some reinforcements otherwise we're blowing a hole in what right now looks like a strong lineup. Right now Kepler would probably be hitting 6th or 8th in the lineup, which is exciting. not interested in screwing that up unless it's part of a deal that improves the rotation. (My proposed batting order, as of today: Julien, Polanco, Correa, Wallner, Buxton, Kirilloff, Lewis, Kepler, Jeffers. That's a tough one to navigate!)

Miranda didn't work out last year at 3B because he got hurt and couldn't hit or throw with that bum shoulder. You can't predict injury. Julien had a terrific season (better than the 2022 year from Miranda that had many of us enthusiastic about his future) and finished strong after a wobble in August, while showing real improvement in the field. the only way you can really say they're going to have similar results is if you know Julien is going to get hurt. Are you predicting injury for Ed Julien?

Lee and Martin are close, but ideally they're guys that start in AAA and are the first wave of replacements for the inevitable injury bug dings some guys and can get their feet wet filling in for a few weeks to show whether they can Pipp someone. But neither are 1B, which is where Kirilloff is going to be locked in (and after a minor cleanup procedure in his shoulder and no wrist problems for the first time in several years...I have more faith in Kirilloff than you) Lewis is not moving to the OF. period. It's doesn't matter how many people think it's a good idea on the message boards, it is not going to happen. I doubt it would happen even if Buxton, Gordon, Castro, and Martin all got hurt. They are committed to him in the infield and are not sliding him into the OF. Everyone needs to move on from this, because it is never going to happen. Never.

Except in 2023 the plan was to start Kirilloff at 1B and Gallo in LF, but Kirilloff took longer to recover from his unusual wrist surgery than they had hoped. Now, that may have been a different sort of malpractice (signing Gallo for $11M) but at the time it wasn't crazy to have Larnach in the OF and Gallo at 1B, with Wallner pushing in AAA. The malpractice would be after an unimpressive season from Larnach and no one knocking on the door in AAA relying on internal depth to step in by trading Kepler. We don't have a corner OF in AAA knocking on the door going into this season; the next wave of OF in the system are in AA or lower (Rodriguez, Rosario, Jenkins, etc) The situations are different, which is why it makes more sense to keep Kepler unless he's needed to be part of a significant trade for pitching. he's not untouchable to me if a team wants him as a real piece in a deal for a starter, but I'm not dealing him for prospects or searching out someone to drop his contract on.

He really wasn't, though. They'd been fairly close in total value (Eddie a more consistent hitter, Kepler a much better defender) and had fairly similar value in 2020. Since the Twins non-tendered Rosario, Kepler (despite his flaws and struggles at the plate) has easily been the better player (and cheaper). but that's also the sort of player that's going to be out there if Kepler gets dealt and the Twins are looking for an OF on a 1-year deal. Rosario was ok last season but not an average starter. Maybe there's some juice left there...but also might be a replacement level guy (or worse) at 32.

He's the sort of player that's worth taking a flyer on to see if you can unlock something through coaching/refinement. he's not the sort of player that's worth spending trade capital on. No offense to the Varland family or anything, but Gus is in the throw-in territory for a bigger trade. Twins are going to need someone to fill that middle relief role where they can make 50-60 appearances and throw 60-70 innings. Is Gus Varland better than Balazovic, Sands, or Winder? That's where we're looking. Bullpen right now looks like: Duran, Thielbar, Jax, Stewart, Alcala, Balazovic, Funderburk, and Winder. I think the Twins will try to find another guy by bringing in someone to compete for one of those middle relief roles with Balazovic and Winder (If Alcala is healthy, he's going to get a shot and Funderburk showed enough last season to be in the bullpen as a second lefty). I'd love for there to be one more righty in the 'pen that is more than a middle/long relief guy from day one to keep Stewart and Jax (especially Jax) from getting overworked, but it's also not where I would put significant resources.

It's an interesting question because Kepler has (deservedly) incurred the wrath of a lot of Twins fans in recent years for his struggles at the plate, but had such a strong second half of the season that he had real trade value again but also looks like an important cog for the twins lineup. I was getting close to the DFA period with him last season when he had a dreadful May, got hurt, and when he came back he stunk again but finally decided "DFA Gallo first, you need to keep one of them for now". Then Maxie got hot, finding his stroke at the end of June/early July and keeping it going through the end of the year. I probably wouldn't be looking to trade him, but he's hardly untouchable. The contract is still reasonable and there's no one really hammering down the door in the OF...yet. (Martin is the closest to me and there's a real chance he's not ready for an every day role) I'd be a lot more interested in having this conversation about moving on from Kepler in a year after Emmanuel Rodriguez has terrorized AA and maybe AAA, Kala'i Rosario is closer, Walker Jenkins has gotten out of A-ball, etc. Jettisoning Kepler right now likely puts Nick Gordon in left, Wallner in right, and Martin as the 4th OF to backup/cover for Buxton. That COULD work...but Gordon is coming off such a rough year that it's hard to feel great about it. You just can't hand Larnach a starting job right now; that's malpractice for a playoff team, and I say that as someone who has been a fan of Larnach. The Gallo experience shows the risk of the retread bin, but there are going to be guys out there you can get on a 1 year $8M deal. but the only real reason to trade Kepler is if that's how you get a deal done for starting pitching that improves the top end of the team. I think Kepler is going to have a solid season, probably a bit less productive than last year but also more consistent. (I'm also convinced that if he gets hurt and ends up on the IL for more than a few days, he's going to get sent out on a rehab assignment whether he wants to or not this time).

Lugo had a nice season last year, but 3 year deals for 34 year-old pitchers who have never thrown 150 innings in a season in their whole professional careers get a little wobbly. (yes, I'm aware that Lugo got asked to relieve for the Mets) I can understand why the Royals made the move; they needed starting pitching like the twins did 2 years ago and desperation usually means overpaying or struggling. Love the Mauer memory. Real shame concussions robbed us of some much from Joe's career, but even with that lingering over him he gave us so many grand moments.

I'm still a big believer in Joe Ryan; his biggest hiccup this season was trying to play through an injury and hiding it from the training staff. That's a mistake, but it comes from a good place. I wouldn't have a problem with him starting a playoff game, and I think his short stint in the playoff game had more to do with it being an elimination game where there was no reason not to empty out all the resources than the team losing faith in him. Ober is a quality starter as well; no fear there either, though it would help if the team doesn't think he needs a break to keep him going through the season. (Obviously, there's no question on Pablo Lopez!) Paddack is a biggest question mark to me than either Ober or Ryan: we don't know how he'll transition back to starting, and we don't know if he's got a 3rd pitch to keep people from keying on his fastball or sitting on the change.

I think what's interesting about Ohtani's deal is that there's no interest. Quite a few major player deals have deferrals built into them (usually for tax purposes on the player side), but usually there's at least some form of interest attached, and there's apparently none of that here. It's a very clever deal that works fine for a player of Ohtani's stature who has massive off-field income streams, but would be much less viable for other players. But the level of deferred money is a little concerning for cap circumvention and what it does to maximize the disproportionate financial power of certain markets. there's no question this is going to come up in the next CBA, and it'll be a complicated one for baseball on all sides. The players union likes this because incentivizing big markets to spend and circumvent the cap is important to raising the overall levels of player salaries. but at the same time, there's only so much you can do to hammer the mid-to-small markets and make them unimpactful in free agency, especially with the collapse of regional cable networks. That hurts more players overall, even if the total economic impact might not be as much. basically, the union is going to be looking at a fight between the superstars and the middle-class player again for what they need and value. MLB wants the deferrals reduced or eliminated to protect owners from themselves, but also because they want teams to be able to be sold with a minimum of impact, which is going to happen with more consistency with fewer family/generational ownerships in the offing. they really don't want a team loading up to win with multiple deferred comp deals, spiking the value of the franchise for a sale, and handing the next owner 10-20 years of contract debt with no value and having to sort that mess out too. Plus, they have real concerns about the competitive value tax thresholds: the less impactful they are, the harder it will be to keep anything moving with a financial floor. revenue-sharing is a real issue in baseball again, and the collapse of the regional sports networks and the solid cable revenues they generated is a significant problem for small to mid-market teams. For as much as the playoff format makes it harder for a big spender to just buy their way to a title, there's also a few too many no-hope teams. messy, very messy.

Until any off-season moves happen, this projection looks about right. The lineup could be the strength of this team in 2024, but it all depends on health for them. the talent is there, but how healthy will Buxton, Correa, Lewis, Kirilloff, Polanco, and Jeffers be? (assuming Polanco stays of course) One of the bigger question marks is Gordon: he was quite effective in 2022, but 2023 was a totally lost season. tough to count on him, but at the same time, his role would likely be backup OF/DH on this roster. I'm not expecting significant changes in the bullpen; maybe they'll add a veteran arm on the cheap, but I'm generally adverse to spending significant money on anything other than retaining your top bullpen guys anyways. I still like Alcala, and if he's healthy and throwing well again I think he could add a lot. the Balazovic/Sands/Winder spots...these are guys with talent that haven't translated. I hope they're spending time at driveline or the equivalent trying to refine something and and improve. I feel confident the FO will make a move to add a starter and push Varland back to AAA; they know they need to have depth.

I love Polo, been a great player for us and a heck of a teammate. But he's the most logical player to move in a trade: very reasonable contract with 2 years of control, proven MLB player, plays a position the Twins have good depth at, will have real value in a deal. I would be hesitant to move him for prospects, however, unless they have another deal in place to move prospects for pitching. Because that's what they need to be looking at acquiring here: starting pitching. Moving Polanco also might mean they could keep Farmer, who would give them a little more insurance at SS, his RH bat is a good compliment to Julien if you need to give him a break against lefties.

I think they do need to replace these innings from Pagan, and his health and ability to pitch frequently was definitely an asset last season. I'm fairly confident in their ability to find middle innings internally from the 40-man without spending much on one of those fungible relievers that always seem to get 1-2 year deals at $6-8M and then disappoint because they simply aren't consistent enough in the later innings. I think the Twins are right not to allocate significant budget on free agent relievers and on relatively average pitchers. It's nice to have the guy with the rubber arm who can make 70 appearances in the middle innings and do the job, but it's also a lot easier to churn through a few guys early in the season until you find one or two of them to handle the load. Alcala and Balazovic seem like reasonable choices to start the year to me.

I think there's a excellent chance for Correa to have a big rebound at the plate in 2024. A foot injury like that can really sap a player's power, and I think it's very likely that he'll be driving the ball better, getting it in the air more consistently, and hitting into fewer DPs. He's had a few tough years at the plate, but every one of them has been marked by injury (or the weird pandemic season), so we'll see if he's healthy. Sure looked it in the post-season! A healthy season from Correa will be a very productive one at the plate, I'm convinced of that. The off-season should be good for his bum foot, and an average season at the plate for him would make a big difference for the Twins. I feel pretty confident in the offense for the Twins right now: a return to health for Correa, full seasons from Julien, Lewis, and Wallner are all a good start. That's without expecting significant contributions from Buxton. I think the offense could be a real strength in 2024.

I think that aspect to MLB roster management is making it much harder to take a position player in the Rule 5. Even with pitchers it's hard because the expectation is that you are using your entire 26-man roster the whole season and not carry players than don't play much by design. Now, I do think teams mis-use that 13th pitching slot; the impact of a reliever who only throws once every ten days is pretty limited, but good luck changing the mid-set of teams who are trying to hedge against worst-case scenarios at all times...

It's certainly less meaningful. Clubs realize that it's more difficult to hold a player on the 26-man all season, especially if they're not ready to contribute in some way, with the way injuries stack up and constant need for more pitchers in today's game. It could still be a useful tool for rebuilding clubs, but going into a season with the expanded playoffs there are fewer teams that are going into a season with no hope as well. I'm a little surprised someone didn't take a flyer on Kiersey, but minor league evaluators are getting better, especially when a guy has 5 seasons of minor league experience. Not mad about keeping him around as CF insurance, but at the same he wouldn't have been a major loss.

I think the Twins would like to keep Keirsey as a depth option in CF in AAA, but probably don't see him being able to hit much in MLB and not consistently. The assessment looks right to me, so I don't think the team will regret losing him very much. I would gamble on him in the Rule 5 if I were a bad team with needs in the OF. And if you're a bad team, you probably have needs in the OF. The risk-reward for a rebuilding team is pretty good. You know that Keirsey can handle things defensively so there's an acceptable floor while you figure out if he can hit at all in MLB, and if he can't what have you lost? But that also means there's only a small slate of teams that are going to pick him, or will have the capacity to keep him on a roster all season. So it makes sense to expose him.

KLaw's piece really was weird. He's always been high on Balazovic and was the first national guy to highlight him as a prospect to watch, so it's understandable that he's holding a torch for him, but the mention suggested he hadn't really been paying attention to what had been going on with him recently. Missing Paddack was equally odd: even if Law doesn't think he's a viable rotation option coming off TJ and with his track record, he's obviously in the mix for the Twins and shown improved stuff in his relief appearances that would make him intriguing to most. Instead of just stating "hey, I don't think this guy can be a quality starter and here's why" when challenged in the comments, he got pretty nasty, insulting both the commenters and the Twins front office...which has earned better. Paddack seems like a very reasonable 5th starter for most teams; he's got real upside if his pitch mix has developed (Law is correct that he hadn't consistently shown a 3rd pitch) but might have an innings limitation based on his surgery. But as a 5th starter who might get skipped a couple of times to keep him fresh? Seems reasonable.

Provus is a smart choice. I don't listen to the Twins on radio much, so I don't know Atteberry very well but there's certainly logic to it. Provus will have to adapt his style a little more to the medium; radio guys usually talk a little too much instead of letting the pictures speak, but I think he'll do fine. It will take some time to adjust to not having Dick Bremer calling the games on TV, and he will be missed, but Provus feels like the right kind of choice to move forward. I'm sure the team was concerned that they were going to lose Provus' services soon and that was a factor in the decision. (Having watched some of the Apple TV broadcasts, Provus would have been a superior choice to do play-by-play than any of the folks they had doing games) While it would have been nice for Bremer to go out entirely on his own terms and at the top of his game, it rarely goes that way. I love Dick, and thought he had been reinvigorated working with Morneau with Perkins, Hawkins, and Smalley coming in instead of Bert almost all the time; sadly the Dick & Bert team had gotten a bit stale, and Bert had really slipped. But even with that, Dick didn't have his best year on HR calls; definitely more times than usual where Dick started a HR call and it was a fairly routine fly. Certainly not a big deal, but might have a been a signal to the team. I can understand the desire to make the change one year early rather than one year late; while there's been a lot of comments about disrespecting Dick, making sure he doesn't go out with a big blunder also shows respect for his career.

I think it's a fit for the Twins if he's interested in a 1 or 2 year deal to restore his value; if it's a 3 year deal in the Gray range (which seems unlikely to me, and I doubt Bowden's info is coming from inside a ballclub, more likely a number made up from the top of BS Mountain, or possibly from Stroman's agent) then it's likely to be a no. But it could be an interesting indicator of a) what the starting pitching market is like, b) who is ready to spend, and c) whether or not Sonny Gray took a real discount or not to put himself in St. Louis. I just don't know where the money will land for him or if someone is going to want to go 3 years at the kind of number he wants to bring in. I'm unconcerned about the GB%, and the front office isn't going to pass on a guy in their price range because of it. I think they feel pretty good about their infield defense with Correa and Lewis on the left side and from the improvement Julien showed on the right, but they also know that very few HRs are hit on the ground and I know they like that too. Their clubhouse can handle an eccentric personality; I don't think Stroman has gotten to Donaldson levels of jackassery to make him more anathema. And I've also been a believer in the "you can have one" theory in having the weirdo/difficult personality department and right now the Twins don't really have any, but do have strong leadership from the players. (If you have two they might start hanging out and their powers for chaos could be multiplied, lol) It's an interesting idea. I think he is ripe for a good season and would be a nice addition. Just not sure that we can make the money and/or years work.

How things have changed from when in almost every thread someone would post "Where Frankie?"

seriously. While I would like some reinforcement for the bullpen, if the pagan contract in the going rate for a low-leverage fungible middle reliever, I have no interest in playing in that pool. Trivino is interesting, but I would be a little nervous about a guy with some control issues coming back from TJ. the velocity will likely be fine even early, but finding the zone could be a problem.

I think the Twins leaned their lesson from Addison Reed to avoid multi-year deals at market-rate or above for non-elite relievers in their 30's. They passed on bringing Trevor May back, correctly, who got a similar deal to Pagan and had a better track record. May was good in year one and bad in year two. Pagan seems like a good dude, so good for him in getting the deal...sure glad it's not with the Twins, because the odds are low that he'll have 2 more good seasons in a row in the bullpen, particularly as he's getting older, when he's never had back to back good seasons before. I would like another option in the bullpen, but it's awfully hard to know who will be good in these roles and a lot of these FA deals bust. And because the Twins struggle with sunk costs, even if they bring a guy in for $5M on a 1-year deal...if he stinks, they'll keep giving him chances, trying to find a way to extract value from the deal and the player. But i'm not feeling great about the options currently in the minors on the 40-man. Sure hope Winder, Sands, Balazovic, and Headrick are going to Driveline or the equivalent to find some answers...

Congrats to Pagan for getting a substantial deal, especially one that sounds very player friendly. (I have a feeling he'll be exercising that player option, but you never know) the problem with a reliever like Pagan is they're only worth that kind of money about 1 year out of 2 (or sometimes 3) and it's why I've generally agreed with the Twins FO's decision to not make significant investments in their relief corps. Pagan was quite good this year for the Twins, even if it was frequently in lower-leverage situations...but he was bad the previous two seasons. Maybe the Reds will get Good Emilio next year again, but he's never had two good seasons in a row in his 7 year career. He's really only had 3 good seasons as a pro. maybe he figured something out in his time with the Twins...or maybe he's just one of those guys with good stuff that can't string it together consistently. Too much money for a fungible reliever. Pagan's greatest attribute has been his health (nice to have a guy with a rubber arm who never goes on the IL) but tough to bet on him to be worth $16M over 2 years when you look at his history, especially a 7 season cumulative WPA of 0.9

Well, Garver did start 27 games at catcher in 2023, but he certainly can't be a number 1 catcher. I do wonder what kind of deal he'll get in FA; as a part-time catcher who can mash lefties, hold his own against righties, plays a passable 1B and would be an effective DH...kinda sounds like a nice fit for the Twins! (probably out of the price range, and we really don't need another guy with a lot of injury issues, but...)