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jmlease1

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Everything posted by jmlease1

  1. jmlease1
    Why are people so down on Kepler and ready to move on? because since his breakout year in 2019, he's been worse on offense every single full season since. (he's been really good lately, but still below league average for the season, so we'll see where this lands) he no longer plays any CF, which lessens his value, and his defense has often appeared to have slipped (he was pretty good last year, but the numbers this season look less than great, and he didn't perform particularly well in 2021). He's gotten dinged with injuries in 2021, 2022, and again this season. He's gotten increasingly frustrating as a player since his big year, and while it may be completely unfair to expect him to have another performance like that juiced-ball year, it's not unfair to wonder why we invest so much money and playing time in a corner OF who isn't much of an offensive player. Kepler has been a regular for 8 seasons (including this one) and been an above average hitter exactly twice (one year was the juice ball, the other year was the pandemic shortened season). Kepler isn't a bad guy or even a bad player...but should he be a starter? He's on pace for less than 2 bWAR this year and even with a hot few weeks is still below league average as a hitter. this team needs more offense, and we have hitting prospects in the minors that have little left to prove there.
  2. jmlease1
    River Town playing for the River Bandits is simply delightful. Yay, for Austin Martin being in the lineup. (It's a bit of a bummer to be so happy for someone to just be healthy enough to play, but I still believe in Martin's talent and really hope he's healthy the rest of the year and finishes strong) Zebby Matthews is one of those pitching prospects I'm still not sure how to rate: he destroyed low A hitters, but has wobbled a bit at high A. Is it better competition showing him up or did he just need time to adjust? It'll be interesting to see if this game is more of a blip or an indicator of him settling in. Only giving up 3 hits is a major improvement on where he's been since promotion, so hopefully he's made some adjustments and can start rolling again.
  3. jmlease1
    I think a lot of teams have handled veterans coming back from injury the same way, though. There's frequently deference to the veteran player (especially position players) in coming back from an injury on whether they go out on a rehab assignment. I also wonder if there's any rules about it in the CBA? For the Twins it's going to be easier to convince a guy to go down on a rehab assignment when they can just slide over to Saint Paul for a week, another potential advantage to having their AAA affiliate on the opposite end of a light rail line. This is one of those clubhouse management aspects. Easy for us to say "Go down to the minors for a week or two and get your timing back", but some of the veterans might easily respond with "I'm a professional, I'm ready to go, I don't need that, stop wasting my time." How you manage your way through those potential conflicts will matter.
  4. jmlease1
    I'm glad this is settled for the season. Can't say enough bad things about Sinclair and everything they do: they're the worst. And as per usual, in a battle between billion dollar businesses it's the regular people that suffer, with struggles to access the games they love, escalating prices, and more. It will be very interesting to see how this all shakes out with the RSNs. For a lot of people, live sports is the only thing keeping people tethered to cable, especially when most/all of their local teams are on a single network. I'm not a particular fan of the FSN/Bally's network (a lot of that is related more to the shoddy ownership than the on-air talent and production), but it's very convenient to have the Twins/Wolves/Wild all in one place. I'm unenthusiastic about potentially needing to ensure multiple channels/streamers/options to watch MN sports. Good news for the Twins, acceptable news for the fans for the 2023 Twins season. Lots of questions to be answered.
  5. jmlease1
    I don't care if he was facing the sorry, no-account (tm Mike Wilbon) KC Royals, Kenta Maeda dominated and it's great to see. You play the team in front of you, and you don't get extra credit for beating better teams. But Maeda did the job for 7 innings and it's exactly what what the Twins needed. Also, it seems like every time I crap all over Kepler and declare I'm ready to be done with him he does something great, so...guess I need to keep trashing him? I'm not convinced he can keep this up, but ride this horse all the way to the trade deadline Maxie! Sometimes beating up on a bad team can get a team on a roll that continues on after the garbage fore team leaves town. Hope that holds true!
  6. jmlease1
    some guys run faster when they're being chased? I'm still ready to move on from Kepler and give Wallner a chance or Larnach another one.
  7. jmlease1
    I'm surprised to see his defensive metrics haven't been very good, because he's got such a good reputation on that side of the ball, but maybe it's more a matter of playing a bunch of 1B early, the injury, and smaller sample size? If he improves the D back to his usual standards it'll help quite a bit. Yesterday we saw a reminder that he's a smart and heady baserunner with the way he went 1st to 3rd on Vazquez's bloop single, and that will help too.
  8. jmlease1
    Really happy to see Austin Martin back with the Saints. Hope his elbow is feeling good and he has a healthy second half of the season. He played really well in the AFL last year and still has oodles of talent. Congrats to Marco Raya on his promotion! Looking forward to seeing how he does against AA hitters (and hoping he can start getting into the 5th and 6th innings on a consistent basis). Like seeing Severino have a good contact day, be great if he can string together a bunch more like this and show that he can be successful without just being a K machine. There's real talent there, but it'll be interesting to see how high he can rise with his approach at the plate.
  9. jmlease1
    Boy, Ed Julien really got a hold of that one! That was a no-doubter from the second it came off his bat. Great timing and it ignited a great inning. Really good to see the bats pile on a bunch of runs late, that hasn't happened too much lately. Ryan pitched pretty well, but he is going to have to be a little careful about guys jumping on him. He's been way too homer-happy lately and while the solo shots won't do too much damage, you don't want him to start getting careless about leaving balls out over the plate in places where hitters can do damage. Great job by Correa in piling up the hits today. Love seeing a guy get a 4-hit game. Bullpen is definitely scuffling a bit right now and they definitely could use to get some guys back from the IL. Pagan giving the Royals hope in the 9th and the fans heart palpitations was disappointing, but Headrick giving up the bomb in the 8th was worse. Not convinced he's well-suited that kind of relief role. Balazovic, on the other hand, is starting to look interesting.
  10. jmlease1
    Cano has done quite well after solving his control problem for the first time in his life (note: he was awful for the O's in his brief call-up last season too). Good for him, but let's see if he can sustain it. Rooker had a great month and has been back to being a poor hitter who adds nothing else. (bad OF, can't really play 1B, no speed, etc) Cano in his current form would have been great in the bullpen, but let's not pretend Rooker moves the needle. He's a pretty bad all-star but Oakland has almost no one to pick from. (Noda might be the only other choice, and unless Rooker gets out of his tailspin he might be the only hitter worth anything on that horrid team)
  11. jmlease1
    I think the Castro situation is a little different. With the Tigers, they were trying to develop him into an every day player, and they let him go when he was going to start getting expensive, because they evaluated him as a player who wasn't good enough defensively to stick at SS (which is why they signed Baez) and wasn't going to hit enough to be an every day player anywhere else. As a utility guy he's doing quite well, as his defensive versatility adds additional utility. but he's still a below average hitter. It's also easier for a player to accept a bench role with a different team some times and it could easily be that in Detroit he thought he still deserved to start. I don't think Detroit mis-evaluated Castro as a hitter, they just might not have been interested in investing resources and a roster spot on a utility guy (especially if they needed a spot for a backup SS)? Castro is also having easily his best season as a pro defensively...which may be in part to them not over-exposing him at SS. It is a really interesting question on how big a sample you need before you can tell who a player is. I feel like the Tom Kelly "1000 ABs formulation is probably on the outside boundary for a hitter who hasn't been showing improvement in their stats/metrics. You probably have a pretty good idea earlier than that. But it is interesting in the Castro context: coming into this season he had 1007 ABs...
  12. jmlease1
    I will say, I generally enjoyed the Peacock broadcast? The Apple TV ones have good production values and very sharp graphics, along with advanced stats and so forth. but the broadcast team has done nothing for me. I liked the Peacock formula quite a bit where they had Ben McDonald (who has plenty of experience with the O's) and Glen Perkins (who I like quite a bit on the Twins broadcasts) doing the analysis. It was like getting a little flavor from a road broadcast without too much homerism. Part of the problem with the Apple TV broadcasts was it seemed like the broadcast team didn't have a lot of depth with either team so a lot of the comments were very superficial, and Dontrelle did a fair amount of the "in my day..." stuff that gets old fast. Kinda liked the peacock broadcast crew and wouldn't mind a setup like that again.
  13. jmlease1
    As a college pitcher, the hope is that Lewis would come in and dominate and rise quickly through the ranks. So far, he has done exactly that. The only concern to date is how deep he's going into games; at Ft. Myers he was only averaging 4 1/3 per start. It's good to see him getting through the 5th more often now, but it's something that's still worth keeping an eye on. every other metric is looking good and he's setting himself up to be in AA no later than next season. be great if he can finish the season with 20+ starts and push 100 innings with these kinds of results. I wonder what the plan is on Yunior Severino? 2nd half call up to AAA? Wait until after the trade deadline to see where they have room for him to get consistent playing time? not sure he has all that much more to prove in Wichita.
  14. jmlease1
    I think Ryan had a real chance until he gave up 5 HRs to Atlanta. While one start shouldn't determine an all-star selection, it was his last chance to impress before the picks were made and unfortunately he had a really bad one when people were watching. Duran is certainly worthy of being selected, but there were always going to be some real snubs this year when only 4 teams had representatives in the starting lineup. Duran might have been hurt by the fact that the Twins don't use him as a 9th inning-only guy, which would be a shame because saves are still overrated as a stat, but that shouldn't be a reason to change our usage of him. Good for Sonny Gray. he's been terrific this season and deserves the nod.
  15. jmlease1
    I'm not sure we have enough evidence to be sure on this one: Duran has only pitched in 10 games total on 0 days rest. It's worth watching to see if he can't consistently be effective on back-to-back days, but I'd rather not write him off on that after 10 games. Twins had a lot of hard-hit balls go right at people yesterday, which sucked. They had a lot of balls die on the warning track which also sucked. Bad hitting or bad luck? they certainly were putting the ball in play plenty yesterday (only 6 Ks). Bit of an odd series that's sort of emblematic of the Twins season: they outscored the O's 10-3 for the series, but only won 2 of 3. they're underperforming their run differential for the season by 4 games right now, and I feel like if they were just even on that one people would feel better about the team. Still and all, while I'm disappointed they didn't sweep after getting another excellent start, winning a road series is always good especially against a team that's been very good this year. Now, about Miranda and that double play... (I felt like I saw that one coming as soon as he stepped to the plate. Argh.)
  16. jmlease1
    Glad to see Austin Martin playing again. Was concerned that the "rest and rehab" plan for his elbow had fallen apart when he went back on the injured list, so it's good to see that he might be catching a break there. I know Keuchel doesn't rely on velocity to get outs, but it's hard to get too excited about a guy throwing mid-80's, even if he's the king of not giving up hard contact. To me, he's a "break glass in case of emergency" option rather than someone we should seek to add to MLB.
  17. jmlease1
    I think it's a fair question considering how well he was pitching and how low his pitch count was. Not saying it was the wrong decision (reasonable to not push Ober who has had injury issues, bullpen was rested and ready, and sometimes it's good for a starter to make sure they leave with a lead and a chance for the win) but he was really dealing yesterday. For me, this is one of those fun "would you let him go for another inning?" questions rather than anything too contentious.
  18. jmlease1
    Ober was fantastic today. He really had the O's flailing and had command of all of his pitches. Great work. Wondered if he might go out for the 8th, he was going so well, but with a rested bullpen hard to complain about Jax getting the call (and Jax did a nice job as well). Really good pitching today. I'm glad to see Kepler showing the glove again; his defense had definitely slipped and we need him to be quality out there with runs at a premium. Gallo's moonshot was big; looks like he's locked in again right now. He's still going to drive some people crazy with the low BA and plethora of Ks, but the overall OPS is good. Hope Royce isn't out for long, he's been a great addition, and if there's anyone who deserves to get a run of good health it's him. At least it's not his knees? Good win. Hope they can get the sweep!
  19. jmlease1
    He's doing well right now and there's definitely things to like about him as a player. As a prospect, the age thing does work against him...there's no getting around it. It's one of the things that can be tough with college bats: if they get hurt or something disrupts their development path, suddenly you're looking at a player who is older than their competition in the minors and you have to wonder if their success is a little too much about beating up on the younger kids. If the power production is real while maintaining his speed, though, he could be interesting. Michael A. Taylor might not be back next year, Celestino has questions, Martin has been hurt, and Lewis might stay on the dirt...maybe there's a window for him to prove he belongs.
  20. jmlease1
    Seriously. there's already 30+ pitchers signed for 2024 with salaries at $15M+, and that number will definitely go up. Lopez is a good pitcher and we have him locked down on a great contract.
  21. jmlease1
    A test for the Twins in this series, but we have the starting pitching to give us a chance against anyone. It's going to be on the offense to step up and make something happen: they need to string together some hits in the same inning, not expand the strike zone, and get a couple of dingers. Atl is playing very well this year, it's a big challenge. Twins have kind played to the level of competition this year, IMHO, so I expect it to be competitive, but YNK. (I presume there will be a call to trade all the vets, fire the manager, and clean out the front office if they drop the first game...)
  22. jmlease1
    He's seriously dominant, but makes it look easy. I think the Twins are generally using him very well, and I appreciate the fact that he's willing to be a fireman, rather than just a closer. He's easily the Twins best reliever (which isn't a dis on the rest of the bullpen, since he's also easily one of the best in all of baseball) and I want him facing the other team's best hitters and locking them down, regardless of whether it's the 9th inning. Relievers that can throw 100+mph gas can dominate. Reliever with a nasty curve can dominate. Relievers who have 3 pitches they can throw for strikes and miss bats can dominate. Duran has all three. Hitters can't touch any of his stuff!
  23. jmlease1
    Nice to see Rosario have a big game; he's been scuffling a bit lately. That said, I am impressed that he's been maintaining plate discipline even when the hits having been falling as easily; lots of young players start to expand the strike zone when they go through a cold patch and Rosario hasn't done that. Schobel is on a real heater. He's really pounding the ball and looks ready for a move up. Be nice if Salas, Miller, and Urbina could get on a run at the plate too. (Cavaco just looks like a bust)
  24. jmlease1
    Buxton's knee won't let him play CF right now. He's not healthy enough to play there. Austin Martin hasn't played in weeks because of his elbow injury, he's not coming up this year. Injuries are what they are, and you can't start making roster decisions like they can be magically waved away.
  25. jmlease1
    It'll be interesting to see how DeAndrade's season ends up. He's hitting decently so far this season, but goodness he's got to get those Ks under control or he's going to get annihilated by more advanced pitchers. Glad to see him drop a bomb out there. Wallner really has nothing left to prove in AAA at this point, but until Kepler or Gallo get hurt again there's no spot for him in MLB. (and Kepler has actually been playing well the last couple of weeks, go figure)
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