Jocko87

Same, I heard his draft day interviews and I was blown away with the approach and maturity. He also keeps talking about wanting to stay in centerfield which would be fantastic. I assume he will have to move to a corner eventually but if he can get to the show quickly he should still be a centerfielder for a while. Double bonus. Loved seeing the Radcliffe eval come out after the draft. He was probably the guy they were hoping fell to them.

Three top 50 is a pretty good outcome to be sure. If Gallo, Kenta and Mahle had stayed on this radar they’d still be playing.

This is a fascinating topic and not just with sports. Content distribution as we have known it is dead. The head is still moving but it’s dead. What it becomes is anyone’s guess. The first thing to know is that the advertisements are the money. We are just looking at cutting out layers that need paid. The Suns are really on to something here. The Twins, and most sports teams have most of what they need in place to produce and televise their product direct to consumers. They would need some beefing up here and there but they already sell advertising and produce video content. I’ve been wondering with the Hollywood strikes going on why the strikers don’t just make a movie and release it on twitter. The studios would give them all they want and more. Clooney, Affleck, Johansson and Tyler Perry just offered $150m deal to help fix the strike, which while a generous offer doesn’t fix the real issues behind the strike. I promise those four have a script they love but can’t get a studio to take it out of their Marvel budget to make. If they star in it, with all the other trades that are striking helping to make it, it makes over $500m. It breaks the system, but if they want to win it’s the way to go. Content creators are the value, distribution systems are changing. The Twins are content creators. Their fan base is beyond annoyed with how hard it is to watch the product. I’m glad I live out of the blackout area, I don’t have to make the choice of not watching or being a felon. The over the air digital television is actually quite good and would blanket the cities with coverage. Say it was on channel 12 but it would actually be channel 12.5 which doesn’t preempt CSI Duluth or whatever the network thinks is content. Twins produced and sold advertising, win win. It’s tougher in the rural areas but that is getting better all the time and you could still have distribution with local cable as well. 12.5 could just be a Twins channel, run the game three/four times. Grandpa will watch the one that best matches his schedule. The ultimate goal, for me, would be to get attendance back to the 3 million range instead of 2 million. They seem proud of the 2 million but they also know how much 3 million is worth. Sustained attendance at that level makes up for a bunch of Bally money. To do that, your local market needs energized and easy access. The blackout in western North Dakota isn’t driving a lick of attendance.

I would argue that we’ve only scratched the surface with Royce. Now that he’s seen it and can fix the bad at bats he can really do damage. He flashed but was also pressing in several at bats.

Nobody has that lineup full of Altuves. Most playoff teams have 2-3. The difference is the Evan Carter, Jeremy Pena(2022), Micheal Brantley, Bryson Stott and Alec Thomases that come up big because they grind good at bats. The 3 stars are crucial, obviously, but the rest of the lineup has to make the pitcher work and turn the lineup over at a minimum. It's not that the stars carry everything, its that somehow they keep coming up with traffic and a chance to do damage. The Twins lineup did not perform well as a unit in the postseason. There were individuals who performed enough to get some wins but the next level is the same as the regular season issues. Need more high quality at bats. Whats the WPA of getting the 3 stars to the dish a 5th time in the late innings?

Why would you take a job with a high chance of getting fired? You only do that when you don't have options.

You've also pointed out why he might not want that job. Its a 5 year job in a two year town. In fact, its his third in his lifetime chance at it.

It's all about perspective. Dave St Peter could be considered the top, or even Joe, Jim, Bill or Bob Pohlad. Where do you stop the pursuit of promotion? It seems he's had multiple chances to move up a level and has passed on his choice just as much as the hiring team. He may even have received offers in the past. At these levels its much more about organizational fit, moving the family around etc. I don't pick up a strong feeling that hes been chasing a promotion, its not like one more promotion means he doesn't still have a boss. On the other hand, the willingness to take an interview in another town is a pretty standard, strong negotiation tactic if you are working on your own new contract. I'm at about 85% the end result of all this is him getting a raise to stay.

Considering Gordon's career OPS is .685 and best season is .743 I'd guess you sealed his fate. I would agree that if he was right handed it might be different but now that he really can't play infield in any meaningful way his time here is probably over. I'd certainly roll with Alcala as we've come this far. If hes actually healthy hopefully we can recoup some investment.

It's a really fortunate year for the TV deal snafu. Sucks to deal with but the timing could be worse. They are in a nice position where they could just match last years payroll while making one or two nice, in character free agent moves while still putting a good team on the field. There are many years where we could look at the roster and spend $100m pretty easily. I don't feel like the fanbase will be too hard on anyone considering the TV situation and relative state of the squad. Also, why is Dobnak dead money? I know its a bad contract but he is alive and pitching. No reason why he couldn't work back into the long reliever discussion after the 40 man movement is cleared up.

2.5 MLB catchers for $11.8M?

Who has hit 12 and walked 85 in 180 career innings. His calling card is not pinpoint control. Magic is only factors you don't see. Interestingly, in the playoffs he has hit 2 and walked 8 in 18.1 innings, an oddly similar ratio. Huh. Garcia could get plunked in ten games against the Astros next year and I wouldn't be surprised. This, would blow my mind if it was on purpose.

This is probably what will happen. I can't imagine they used the split and kept both guys healthy all year and will flip to an 80%+ solution next year. I remember advocating for trying to sign Sandy Leon to a minor league deal this spring just in case. This is some of the most important depth they have, I think it still gets thin quickly. Underrated story so far is how much Jeffers improved defensively. Couldn't do anything with the running game last year but was quite good this year. Combine that with the rule changes to increase running the improvement was very significant. One of the best measures is that I haven't heard a single complaint from Vazquez or Vazquez adjacent about the postseason usage. Pure speculation, but it seems to me that Vazquez recognizes how good Jeffers got.

They have a place where they can hit and throw while they wait. No excuse. More likely a fairly green closer in a odd tough spot. The first pitch after the home run was up in Dubons face. Was that on purpose? Probably not but if it hit him K-D bar the doors.

Do you have any evidence for that? Honestly no excuse for Garcia not to be suspended as well, considering how everything played out. But no chance it was on purpose.

He's my favorite Astro right now, Yordan being on my naughty list for the time being. The better question is why would he throw at him on purpose? A very important reliever is suspended now. At that point of the game, in the postseason, nobody is trying settle scores regardless of how much he pimped the home run. Let's put two runners on with no outs in the 8th, sure. They'll see him again next year. Garcia is at fault for making his pitcher wait. He should be getting suspended too. Trying to start a fight, sprinting around trying to get at someone always has been suspendable. To frame this as some sort of Astros cheating thing is one heckova stretch. Let's have some evidence when we say that type of thing. Dusty was right to be apoplectic.

I think this is the explanation. What we got this year is a preview of a couple years down the road when he actually loses a step. Still a darn good shortstop. Knock on wood that he comes back to full speed next year. The arm and the glove are great obviously but what sets him apart is the scouting, positioning and anticipation. Adjusting for age is easier than adjusting for injury because its consistent. Those traits should allow him to stay at shortstop for quite a while. Barring injury, by the time Correa is ready to move off short Royce and Brooks will no longer be options either. Interesting mention of just 6 errors, I distinctly remember two odd missed catches down the stretch that were completely out of character. I went back to the MLB video library and there were 3 catches that looked like a high schooler should have made. They were August and Sept as the foot and season had to have been grinding on him but he could have very easily had a 3 error season where his mobility was compromised. Pretty, prettty good. His down year on defense is as good as most guys best years. We should not be looking to move him to 3rd anytime soon.

Do we know he's the negotiator? I struggle with how he and Falvey split duties and would assume they were both involved. As negotiations go, the Correa experience is an even better example of a well handled negotiation. My feeling was always that Falvey was at front of that but he's become the voice for everything. Hard to know what we would be losing without knowing who owns what.

That was a specific response to a separate bad argument. I'm not arguing any of that as a platform, all of these things are true but they are all non-linear values with distinctly different value propositions. I didn't bring up the pitcher comparisons either, speaking of canards. There is no comparison of the value of strikeouts to hitters vs strikeout value to pitchers. Two completely different things. The topic is the hitters and strikeouts and we need to return to that. Good at-bats absolutely can result in K's. K's are not inherently bad for hitters either. How many strikeouts would you be willing to tolerate for 521 PA with a 1.031 OPS/168OPS+?

That’s why I didn’t say that. There is logic in this statement you made though, it’s actually true the way you phrased it. Simple example is a strikeout for a hitter is much less bad than GIDP with bases loaded and zero outs. In that same situation the strikeout for the pitcher is great.

It would live and die on this group of people. It’s a whole different level than moderators or editors. It would be a good place to keep FAQ and debunk deep seated narratives without 1000 words in a random thread. Link to ref, move on. My favorite would be an explanation of Falvey and his “homegrown” Cleaveland pitching. A well written factual layout of how most of that pitching was traded for would be handy. We might still argue over the definition of homegrown but here’s the solid data around that question. I know I’m not the only one who randomly digs into data on some oddity that catches my attention. I’m not great with excel but I made a rudimentary pivot table for the Cleaveland/Falvey pitching tree. Took a bit but I deleted it because what the heck do I need it for. I’d be happy to share with someone who was writing an entry. There’s a lot of folks here who could make great contributions. The nut will be the structure of editors. Even the mother Wikipedia struggles with this.

I understand the interest from Boston but they would have to blow me away to make that switch. Boston is a 5 year rebuild in a 2 year town. Hopefully Ng is interested.

I thought we were talking about hitting? Nobody is saying strikeouts are good. They are less bad than we realize and if they occur in the course of taking good at bats we can live with them. Taking good at bats consistently will reduce strikeouts and increase all the other things we want to see. Strikeout value for pitchers is a completely different equation.

It's one thing to add a president position, I can see that business justification. It's a whole other thing not to offer that position to the current successful leader of the organization. At these levels its almost always a prelude to a parting of ways, and its very possible that it was on purpose to force her out on "her choice". Pretty standard business move unfortunately, no severance package needed.

But you added the two strikes part. He said nothing remotely close to swing for the fences with two strikes. It would be interesting to dive a little deeper with him on this. What does he define as a good at bat? What do you want to see with two strikes specifically? Until someone gets him on record with specifics like that don't put words in their mouths. If they have said something like that I'd be happy to adjust but I'd be willing to bet his answers to those questions would be pretty satisfactory to most of us. He also didn't say that he's cool with striking out half the time. My read is that they have correctly assessed that the strikeout is the wrong metric to manage to. How many strikeouts this year did you mutter to yourself "what a horrible at bat!" For me, a lot. What matters here is the bad at bat, not the strikeout.