Jocko87

Yes.

The problem is that each of these estimates can be off 10-20%+- and by the time you add variations on all the categories you can be anywhere from out in left to right field, say 40-50% off. Its just a guess by Forbes. The most accurate item we have to estimate is payroll but we only know the top line number. What do you think the insurance premium on the Correa/Buxton contracts cost? The CPA in the thread laid out a good group of variables. All profit and loss is different on paper vs in pocket. That said, even though this is a clickbait article by a dog **** publication its probably directionally correct in that we have to assume they use the same methodology for each team. I could believe that they were 30m off last year with the late Correa contract and lower attendance but they had already budgeted the Correa money for Donaldson. The loss leader was probably the tanking record and AAA roster the last two months. Adding this depth isn't just good for the team, the bottom line benefits too. Hard to say. As for the Mets, that number makes sense too. However, I will scream it from the rooftops again and again-do not look at the Mets as a sporting team, look at them as a hedge fund manager would. That -180m is not a loss, its a capital expenditure that will probably be depreciated somehow. Everything Steve Cohen is doing follows the hedge fund takeover model where they will spend heavy up front to make the business what they want as quickly as possible. For example, buying players saves prospects and preserves future value. Its strategic. Love it or hate it, having operating capital opens doors that aren't available for other businesses.

Yes, but no different from months ago. If this doesn’t work it’s a problem but this looks normal for the recovery of that process.

Maybe we are skeptical because we have? We do talk with the benefit of hindsight but Buxton's knee was handled completely improperly last year for myriad reasons. Enough that the trainer was replaced. If Polanco has to go for a knee procedure after all this time, we will properly chastise them for handling it wrong as well. I have no issues with the Kiriloff injury, this outcome is within 5 degrees of expectation from last year. Polanco is 180 out.

This is my question as well. Kinda the same as Buxton last year, soreness? That was finally fixed with a procedure. The knee is pretty well understood from a medical standpoint everywhere but Minnesota it seems. It does feel like he’s headed for a scope or something that could have happened in November. I can appreciate waiting for natural healing but at some point the docs are crazy good at this type of stuff. My 70yo mother just got a hip in 30 minutes and walked out. Blew my damn mind. With no information we can only speculate the worst and I wonder if they are struggling with that balance.

I don't have a problem with guys like Pagan and Hoffman in the last spots as they both do have an upside to find that could be very valuable. Properly used, Pagan has a rubber arm and can just take the beating for 3-4 innings to save other guys in a lost cause game. My more pressing concern is that they will run them out there over and over and over in pressure situations and not adjust the approach or cut bait timely. They have a track record for this and it has to stop. I'm also a big fan of throwing a young starter in the bullpen to get them comfortable with getting major league hitters out out. Ober doesn't fit this profile as discussed many times and I'm not the person that can exactly say who does. I am pretty sure though than one of SWR, Winder, Festa, Sands etc would be more valuable and develop better in the bullpen than starting in the minors. They can still be a starter eventually but learning they can get ML outs is powerful. It reminds me very much of when Polanco came up from A ball when no one was available. There was plenty of chatter that he was picked as a guy that was a sacrificial 15-20 ranked prospect we would not mind losing. I guarantee he didn't see it that way and getting that taste and a couple big hits almost certainly altered his mindset and trajectory.

Nothing against the TV guys but baseball is made for radio, no matter who is calling it. I can usually sync the bat crack to the TV and get the best of both worlds. I've been doing it since the first time I believe TBS/TNT got playoff games 15 years ago. Their TV guys were so horrible and I realized I could get Vin Scully on XM radio. Heaven. Glad to hear everything will be on TV though, hope the blackout rules don't mess with too many people.

There's that golf thing in Saudi Arabia.

This is how you build a rotation. Sure, hitting on a Corbin Burnes in the 4th is nice and all, please keep trying for that but good depth is where its at. Quality in the depth is important and targeting solid 2s and 3s is the way to go. It will serve well in the long regular season with a legit chance that one of the 2s is pitching well enough to comfortably take on an ace in the playoffs. Winning a World Series takes a run of luck and all you can do is put yourself in a position to get lucky. Then, when you hit on a 4th round pick, or luck into a #5 draft pick stud your rotation is suddenly the Astros or Dodgers. I went down a baseball reference rabbit hole on the Guardians/Guardians pitching that young Falvey supposedly guru'd out of the ether. Never mind how the timelines don't quite line up with his front office tenure, its quite eye opening where the big names came from. Lets just say that by next year the Guardians fans will think he formed Joe Ryan with his own hands. His best pitching draft was probably on his way out the door in 2016 with Mackenzie at #42 and Bieber in the eeerr 4th round. Pulling for ya, Marco Raya, Andrew Morris.

Would they take him with an injury? Say TJ and miss an entire rookie year. I'm kinda thinking they might, considering the injury risks they are comfortable laying on other pitchers. Prielipp is a good comp on the risk level they are comfortable with. It would be great to get a guy who could pitch this year in the bigs but putting a talent like that a couple years away isn't the worst thing. Agreed that if he keeps this up he won't be there but maybe the Tennessee guy falls. OK by me, he was the Strasburg a month ago. Hard to imagine that there will be a bad option at #5 but the ace option is the stuff dreams are made of. Fingers crossed one of them is there.

Jinx. Well put. Missed that Castro has an option left but I still prefer another outfielder or pitcher to go north, He may get added to the 40 anyway.

They left the Dennis Santana spot on the 40 man open so that shouldn't be an issue. I can't find it but there was a quote about leaving it open to maintain flexibility. This had to be on their mind at the time. I'd rather not fill the spot with a Castro type as we could be in the situation to lose them 2 weeks later if Polo is ready. Save them for a more long term injury from a roster management standpoint. Use someone with options for this one. It should free up the spot for Ober or Larnach as there are three 2nd base options on the roster already. Farmer, Solano and Gordon can hold it down.

It's not that you did a wrong thing, it how you react to doing the wrong thing. It's very tough for the young guy to stand up to the old guy also, ahem Beltran, senior personnel almost always get stiffer punishments. Two rules to live by as a hiring/firing manager.

I think both of them would be turning it down, even after this year. Lewis with the Boras factor and Lee would wait to drive the price up. We should certainly wait until we know how the draft plays out. One of the pitchers would be in line for this money first in my mind.

The Gallo signing makes more and more sense the more we talk about it.

The 47 yo bachelor part hits a little close to home. That's not discussed in North Dakota.

This is the time to get the potential ace, heres hoping one of them is there at #5. The thing about the #5 pick is that any college player they take they also have to look at where they fit within the current roster projections as we should expect them within the 1-2 year range. The ace would be the best for this but barring that it would almost have to be a college outfielder if they are thinking nearer term. I do like the high school angle if they don't project someone to be fast help. That prospect could anchor the next wave 3-4 years down the road. This is also a time where having a good relationship with Boras and Boras clients could be mysteriously handy. Lasts years wild card, Rocker, is a Boras guy (interesting Mets angle also). Both pitchers could very easily be Boras clients and we know he's not afraid to do whats needed to get his client what they are looking for. Unless they are set on 1-1, going somewhere on the rise where you can be in the league in 12 months would have to be appealing.

Thinks the Mets would be interested? We owe them a favor anyway.

I would think it would be a no-brainer to bring him back at that production level. It would also help make Gallo a flip candidate at the deadline. Even if he was just solid .250 with some pop, $10m isn't outrageous. But I don't know that his production will matter so much in the decision to keep him or not. Performance of Wallner, Larnach et al. will probably be a bigger factor.

I'm also very curious how they plan to use Taylor off the bench. I could see him being a late inning weapon in a couple situations. -New extra inning rules finalized hopefully means they will be focusing on getting this damn run in with a purpose. Taylor should be a very good pinch runner with the ability to steal 3rd if needed. Maybe not quite Terrance Gore but he still has a lot of speed and always been a pretty good base runner. -Having the rest of the outfielders being solid at worst defensively will limit his chances as an automatic replacement in late innings and that's good as it keeps him free for the pitch running option. I am, however, kinda infatuated with the Gallo shift and what the Twins can do with a Buxton, Taylor, Kepler outfield alignment. Buxton can cover left and half of center (safer, covers more ground, less collisions) while Taylor and Kepler do a shallow/deep right field? I'm pretty sure they have more in mind for Taylor than just Buxton insurance and interested to see what it will be when the real games start. If they can use Lewis and Farmer as RH outfield options they may want to keep him in a more flexible role.

Ain't it grand to be having this discussion based on performance?

I believe this is where they were wrong last year. When he's hurt, don't. I know he didn't want to go on the DL and there was no depth behind him, but his knee situation was horribly mismanaged last year. Knee leads to hip and hip leads to more days off leads to shutting down for the same amount of time anyway. With the benefit of hindsight, a 6 week knee cleanup in May would likely have worked out much better. Hopefully the new trainer will make better decisions in these types of cases. An injury prone player trying to push through injuries seems counterproductive to me. The depth will help make those choices easier.

I used Taylor specifically because he is almost guaranteed to be around all year for defense and pinch running. He will get a ton of run especially before Lewis comes back. But yes, many options help make Gallo a very valuable asset around the deadline. I could easily see getting a return similar to what Nelson Cruz got.

Hoping he can approach these numbers to max his trade value. I can't see a scenario where he would be here next year, if he's raking he will be too expensive and if not he'll get flipped for BPA. Best case is Larnach/Taylor play well enough to make him expendable.

Still very early but it doesn’t look like a shortstop profiles at the #5 pick and I’d prefer taking a swing at one of the potential aces in that spot anyway. Lots of mocks have the outfielder from Florida which would be fine, just make sure it’s an impact player. After that pick, I wouldn’t be surprised to see them take a few more college shortstop types in the top 10 rounds. They seem to be stocking up on trade chips and everyone wants up the middle talent. Try to coach them up and keep the best ones for us. Simple, right?