Jocko87

I love going back down these rabbit holes. I had forgotten Gallen was in the Sandy trade. I have kinda got in the habit of scrolling down to the transactions every time I go to baseball reference just for the memories. Also quite surprising how many pitching prospects get moved around. Just gotta hit on 1 1/2 of them and we are set for 4 years.

Forgot to add Gallen was then traded 1 for 1 for Jazz Chisholm, another odd parallel with the Lopez/Arreaz trade. Weird.

Lets see what happens with the #5 pick this year before we get all crazy with our most valuable assets. I have a lot of hope for that pick and the starting pitchers that might be available. It has a chance to be an amazing stroke of luck at just the right time for the organization. For me, trading for an ace is the last method I'd try. The cost is high in prospects, short on team control and then hard to sign. You better be in a World Series position to do that. The Twins are doing the right thing now in that they are gathering 2s and 3s and trying to turn one into an ace. The Sandy Alcantara trade is fascinating. Alcantara wasn't even the headline prospect in that deal, Magneuris Sierra is still a Gwinnett Striper. There was another guy in the deal named Zac Gallen, who is familiar for some reason as well. All for two years of Marcel Ozuna, who had a really good year but was hardly a franchise player. Gallen and Alcantara were both 22 at the time. It puts the Joe Ryan for Nelson Cruz value in perspective. There is value to be had without selling from the top of the farm system. Looking at these two deals, what can Gallo bring if he's raking? Not as much as Ozuna but maybe more than Cruz?

About time the Twins joined the big boys. They are drafting for the purpose of trading now.

Also rooting for him but he profiles as the perfect looks interesting trade chip that can get over valued at the deadline. Better than even money we never see him in Minnesota as a Twin. He's at an unfortunate age in that unless he goes nuclear he will be stuck behind Correa, Lee, Lewis, Martin, Julian, Schobel etc but to old to be in the next wave of Salas, Noah Miller and whoever else is drafted.

The Gallen move didn't happen in my time machine, you may have a glitch. Lee came up in September to along with our new ace, Paul Skenes. Drafted with the 5th pick after his new agent Scott Boras floats signability issues to the first 4 teams, he comes up to pitch meaningful September innings out of the bullpen. While the move baffles KFAN caller Glen from Maple Grove as he can't find a way to criticize it, Skenes proves his Wes Johnson enhanced stuff plays in the bigs with 9 1/3 solid innings with 12 Ks and 3 walks. Alas, my time machine ran out of banana peels on September 14th, right before the start of a crucial 4 game set against the Pale Hosers with a 82-64 record.

It will take this fan base a bit of time to adjust to that pivot that the front office has made (not that I blame us). We are now firmly in the fill needs through asset management camp and out of the build from within model that made everyone covet prospects. There is a reason they are drafting a ton of college shortstops and pitchers-not for the roster but for trade chips. We are going to see players that were part of the organization succeed elsewhere, its a good thing. Just as a random curiosity, I went through three different AZ Diamondbacks message boards. Nobody gives a **** Duran is being Duran max. Oddly there was much more chatter about Duran Duran for some reason. They didn't seem to care when he left either. Its almost as if future value is much harder to predict than present value. Would they feel different if they could look 4 years ahead? Probably but it still might make sense to make the deal. We are in the good place now, embrace it.

I also like the idea of leaving Miranda mostly out of this mix and letting him focus on 3rd as he has a chance to stick there. Just settle in and mash, young man. A new position, even 1st base, makes last year all that more impressive.

As someone who hit every rung of the defensive spectrum ladder on true way down to finally settle in as a semi-competent 1st baseman I approve of this strategy. I never bought the argument that Mientkiewicz saved enough runs to make up for his lesser bat as much as I enjoyed watching him play. You would need horrible scattergun arms all over the infield for it to matter much. One of the underrated factors of Correas arm is that he throws easy to catch balls to first, even at 100mph. He is very good at the long skip that we defensively limited gloves love at 1st. The other infield arms are good enough it won't be a significant difference. If they think any of the prospects can't hang at 1st defensively they should trade them now before the rest of the league finds out. Whoever hits, plays. Good problem to have now that we have options that can hit.

Also, he homered off three guys who will be bagging groceries in a couple a weeks. Couldn't help it...

You in Wichita too? Fun group to watch, I’m in Goddard. On topic, we should hope the guys we send away have glimpses of success, it will help credibility when we trade the next one. Seriously, where would he slot in the depth chart? This front office were supposed to be pitching guys but it turns out they have really been good at finding hitters for the most part. Work it with what you have, anyone drafted after round 2 last year or this year is already on the block.

This whole game is a mess. Good thing its practice.

Hopefully Rocco keeps rolling him out for the next few weeks to hammer the point home. He should need a perfect spring to make the team.

About a year ago it seems like the organization made a large pivot in strategy and seemingly are addressing several of the long held valid gripes dedicated fans have had. I'm split on how much can be attributed to the new owner in charge, our new assistant GM Correa or the combination of the two. A strong voice in a new ear is very persuasive. Boras is also giving good advise to help his clients. I don't count the first Correa signing as the change seems to have followed that. They were still trying Archer and Bundy at the time after all. It really started with being aggressive with prospects at the deadline. Even though it didn't work perfectly the moves were exactly what was needed for the season. While the offseason felt like a meandering walk in the woods at times they got their guy at every turn somehow. They deserve massive credit for that even if you want to poke holes in how they did it. I have a very different opinion of the Mets situation that can't be discussed in open media but the Twins nailed the value of the player from the start. They won an awkward situation with their approach. I struggle to see how anyone gives the offseason less than an A. In game changes remain to be seen but they are openly talking about adjusting the approach. Brooks Lee will see MLB action in the Bregman role if he stays on track. They have flipped to embrace trading value they have developed (hitters) to fill holes, mainly starting pitching. The #5 pick this year has a chance to be an ace that we could see in September or early next year. I expect them to draft several more college shortstop types after that not to being waiting in the wings but to trade to fill needs. We have roster debates where the winner will have to be playing well rather than options available. Old Twins do none of this, even under this front office. I will readily admit that they have been lucky in a few areas. The draft with Lee falling in our laps and the 5th pick this year were very fortunate. The Correa situation involved a lot of good luck and karma. Having all the injured assets seemingly past the worst of it at the same time is fortunate. None of that matters when evaluating the front office. In business, we are judged only superficiality by results. The proper judgement and evaluation is in the process and doing the right things to position yourselves when luck strikes and take advantage. The Skor North season preview did a pretty good job of laying out why they are so pessimistic about the organization but failed to mention or realize that the team had made a meaningful significant change in nearly every item they mentioned. It felt like Mackey wants in but Buy stock in this organization. They are hitting the peak of the competence/luck curve and are positioned as well as anyone for the next 5 years.

The obvious comp is Alex Bregman? Very similar profiles and skillsets and hopefully trajectories. Bregman had 49 MLB games in his second pro season, at all sorts of positions because Correa was at SS. Huh. I wonder how Correa would compare them?

There were several times last year where pushing that one run across wins a damn game. I counted 6 in a quick scan and it felt low from my memory watching. It was painful watching a home run approach when old school would win the game. I’m hopeful that the rule being permanent will force teams to look deeper into the analytics of the situation and train some situational hitting back in. My hypothesis would be that when you really dig into the analytics of getting that run in to win a game the old school way will fare really well. Stealing 3rd is also going to be very popular in extra innings if you have a good bench move available. Taylor might be that guy on his off days and Lewis if he’s able to run free. It doesn’t have to be Terrance Gore anymore. To me the analytics aren’t so much about processing data, it’s about which data to use in a given situation. Rocco left me confused many times last year in these situations. I feel the same way in football when they throw a goal line fade when three sneaks are available. Just score the damn run.

Lots of good talk about player development and rightly so but I think the main thing we should be discussing in relation to the Twins drafting/player development strategy is that they appear to be pivoting from a draft and develop for every spot organization into a draft the best prospects and trade to fill needs organization. The next 6 years for sure are win now mode and prospects will be sacrificed for the good of the big league team. This will end up being a lot of college shortstops, center fielders and pitchers. I think they have adjusted a bit and we wont see many more Sabato type picks going forward. Versatility trades well.

Except for $20 insert shortstop and for peanuts insert starting pitcher or literally any other position. Get to work meme makers. What a great problem to have and a welcome change in approach from the organization. Do not be surprised if the #5 pick this year is another shortstop either. I don't know the draft board, maybe its the second round pick. Get talent, turn it into what fits best. I love it. I also love Brooks. I got to watch one of the AA playoff games from behind the dugout last year and the dude is impressive. I'm speaking mostly from a body language standpoint here, many others will do the on field. Hugely impressive to watch him interact with a new team in the playoffs after what had to be a whirlwind year. Obvious coaches kid and carries an uncommon confidence that damn few would have in that situation. Also took the loss hard, harder than his new teammates. Selfishly I'm hoping to watch him play in Wichita for a good long time but want that to be because everyone on the big squad is healthy and raking. I'm going to enjoy it while I can.

I'm not a scout by any means and some pitchers won't be good for this model. I most often see Ober mentioned as someone who needs to stay a starter and thats fine. Part of the development is sorting that out. There is only a one or two spots for doing this any given year and AAA needs starters too. For the same reasons they should be playing other sports growing up, they should be situationally flexible as pitchers. It develops different muscles.

This may be more of a pitching development observation but it also directly affects the bullpen. With young starting pitching depth we should be looking for places to get them major league experience and it doesn't have to be starting. Just like they build up their arms for length I think its just as important for most players to get built up to handling major league hitters. Sure, there will still be guys that can go straight to the rotation but unfortunately that's a huge jump that a lot of guys don't make well. I look at it like the NFL and QBs. Every year we see 2-6 guys drafted and thrown into the fire as some sort of savior and what happens? Pass/Fail and Mahomes and Burrow are the outliers. As much as I hate to say it, I expect Jordan Love to be good in Green Bay. Drew Rasmussen of the Rays, who develop pitching pretty well, is a great example of this. He did a great hour long interview with MLB radio a couple of weeks ago that got me thinking. He was a very highly touted prospect with injury issues that bounced around a bit. I found a short audio clip of the relevant part but the whole hour was a good listen. Basically he was put in the bullpen to figure things out and just developed into the rotation. Had he stayed healthy he probably goes straight to the rotation as hes always been very talented-only 74 minor league innings. Point is, every pitcher is figuring things out and they all develop differently. The constant is that getting major leaguers out consistantly is hard and the gap from AAA is larger than any other gap in the path. I think we should be embracing throwing prospects into the major league bullpen. Winder Ober, Varland and SWR should all be in this mix. We know they have good enough stuff to be successful in good situations. Rocco can get them started with favorable match ups and build confidence and technique from there. Doing well with one inning? Heres two, now three. Now one in high leverage and so on. Maybe they add a tick in velocity and can keep it as they build up to starting. Maybe they become Duran and they are stuck there. Maybe we find out they can't hack and we can cut bait earlier. All good outcomes in my opinion that are even worth starting a service clock early. I'm comfortable with the bullpen this year simply because the overall pitching depth is much better. As long as the Twins are willing to use these resources to get outs regardless of what part of the game it is they will be fine.

Looking forward to it!

Brad Hand rumor, DFA Pagan. Off-season done?

Does anyone have a good idea how the new shift rules are going to affect the defensive metrics? As mentioned, these are much less dependable metrics than pitching and hitting and going forward we will likely value a different type of defender. Runs saved/OAA will be more tied to range?

Being close with someone who can move the needle is always a good idea. I do believe the Correa situation has the potential to change the small market teams thought process significantly. If I were say, the Brewers, I would call Boras and ask that he please keep me in mind the next time you need a one year spot for a stud. I'd pay high AAV for a year for the chance to recruit/evaluate a big time free agent. If we click, I'm willing to pay up. Not interested in the Gallo type for this, slightly interested in a Bellinger type but mainly looking for someone at Correa level at a minimum. Every year or two there will be a stud in an awkward situation and I'm OK with being used. Worst case they move on with no compensation but more likely you flip them at the deadline for a good haul if its obvious he wont sign. If it was Master P doing the Correa thing I wouldn't give it a second thought. The fact it was Boras tells me the needle moves. There are a bunch of teams going to school on the Twins right now. It will also be interesting to watch his relationships with the big money teams, especially the Mets. I want to give credit where its due and Boras may have been the only guy who could have saved Correa from the Mets. He did step into the trap but was savvy enough to get out with minimum damage. Boras is obviously pissed but can't say anything publicly. He likes to deal directly with owners but he is re-calibrating with Cohen. Hedge fund tactics have been rare in sports but Cohen is a different cat. Kumar Rocker was a similar situation.

Also Maeda as an experienced option if by some miracle all the starter options stay healthy. The overall pitching depth is much better than last year and that has to flow to the bullpen somehow. I don't know that they are betting on this any differently than they are betting on any other position group. Its a plan and as plans go I'm OK with it-first fire inbound. Well, OK except for the Pagan part, unless they see him as a low leverage rubber arm I'll be nervous.