TopGunn#22

I know I'm frustrated that the Twins BIG move so far is to have signed Bubba Thompson to play at St. Paul all year, but even so, I don't see the Tigers challenging them in 2024, outside of Skubal their pitching is BAD. I see a last place finish for the mess in Chicago. I see Bobby Witt Jr. as the clear best player in the division and while the Royals have made a few moves they are still a long ways away. That leaves Cleveland. THIS is the team that I truly fear and it comes down to pitching. If they hang onto Bieber and McKenzie returns to form they have two outstanding starters at the top of their rotation, great young SP's in Allen, Bibee and Gavin Williams and the best closer in the American League (Clase). They have enough offense in Ramirez, Kwan, the Naylor brothers, Gimenez and Manzardo. And a key pickup here or there could make a difference. When you can pitch like Cleveland can, you have to respect that. Especially if McKenzie returns to form. He's a real Wild Card.

Good write up. Would Luke's primary defensive position be 2nd base? As a college player, he could move quickly up the ranks if his play continues at a high level. With his similarity to Schobel this presents an opportunity to use one of them in a trade at the deadline. Having De Andrade, Miller, Schobel and Salas along with Lee is great depth at SS throughout many levels in our system. Was it Noah Miller who won a Platinum Gold Glove last season?

Varland is what Winder has NOT (so far) turned out to be. Varland demonstrated that when coming out of the pen, he could dial his velo up to near 100 mph. That's a weapon. To me, the key guy that could determine what the Twins decide to do with Varland this season is Matt Canterino. If Canterino is healthy and dazzling in spring training, with his "stuff" he could be that 8th inning guy, and an occasional closer alongside Duran at the back end of our bullpen. If the Twins are actually serious about Canterino remaining a SP and if they will actually let him approach 125 innings in 2024 then there is a stronger chance to see Varland as the 8th inning/alternate closer guy. Brock Stewart was phenomenal in his limited innings last year but the jury is out on him for 2024. Funderburk is going to have a much bigger role this year than last, and that's a good thing. Staumont was a decent signing if the proper role could be carved out for him. The other thing that will determine how Varland is used, at least in 2024, is what, if any, SP the Twins acquire in a trade or FA. Are Luis Castillo or Jesus Luzardo realistic targets? Are Mike Clevinger or Trevor Bauer or whoever is still unsigned as a 2nd tier SP even under consideration for the Twins? It makes little sense to me to sign a tier 2 SP unless that guy is at least considered the #3 guy in the rotation with only Lopez and Ryan ahead him, and Ober, Paddack, and by extension, Varland behind him. Only Clevinger and Bauer at least have the pedigree of past performance to merit being slotted ahead of Ober. But I love your analogy of Varland needing to be "water." He must be fluid and flexible for whatever role the Twins decide to employ him.

Alcantara had a negative value of minus 39.1 just last week. His negative value is now just minus 7.9. That necessitates the addition of Matt Wallner into this trade. I went with Wallner in this deal because his value is at an all time high at 26 years old. He's just this kind of power hitter Miami needs. Young and controllable. At 20 years old I thing Emm-Rod has a greater upside and I said on TD earlier this year that I would NOT trade him until I gave him 2024 in St. Paul to show me what he's got. The Twins roll with Vasquez and Camargo in 2024 at catcher. If it works out well and the OF of Kepler, Buxton, Larnach, Martin, Kirilloff, etc...needs a jolt and Emm-Rod is tearing up AAA maybe he's up by August 1st. Talented pitching is extremely expensive. The Twins are giving up a LOT in this trade. But it's a risk I'd be willing to take to have a rotation that includes Luzardo and Alcantara. Even if I have to wait a year to see Alcantara in my rotation. Could San Diego or someone else beat this? Who knows? But I'd make this offer and find out.

This is not a fantasy baseball idea. As we've all noted previously, if Miami is REALLY willing to move Arraez when they are already starved for offense to avoid paying him down the road they would certainly consider trading Alcantara when considering the future risk. A lot of this comes down to whoever is willing to accept Alcantara at $9 million for 2024 and the risk of how he will come back in 2025 from TJ. If it takes moving Alcantara and Luzardo to add offense while also retaining their best hitter (Arraez) of course they would do it. Miami is loaded with pitching prospects--Eury Perez and Braxton Garrett are already more highly prized than Luzardo. Rogers, Meyer and Cabrera are on deck and Sixto Sanchez and Ryan Weathers are as well. Here's a trade where the Twins slightly overpay just based on the values. No money is being sent in this deal so the Twins are taking on all of Alcantara's current and future contract--$9 million for 2024 and the $17 million in 2025 & 2026 with the $21 million dollar team option in 2027. Miami takes on Polanco for 2 years and Farmer for 2024 only. About $16 million. But they keep Arraez and add Jeffers, Polanco and Wallner to their lineup. Twins sell high on Wallner, keep Kepler and get another year closer to Emmanuel Rodriguez and Walker Jenkins. We also don't touch Lewis, Julien or Lee and have the potential to have one heck of a rotation for 2024 and especially 2025 forward. Twins 00 NAME AGE LEVEL P1 P2 AVAILABILITY YEARS AFV SALARY SURPLUS LOW MEDIAN HIGH Sandy Alcantara 28 Majors SP Low 4 57 64.9 -7.9 -9.5 -7.9 -6.3 Jesus Luzardo 26 Majors SP Medium 3 91.3 26.1 65.4 52.3 65.4 78.4 Total Value: 57.50 Marlins 00 NAME AGE LEVEL P1 P2 AVAILABILITY YEARS AFV SALARY SURPLUS LOW MEDIAN HIGH Kyle Farmer 33 Majors UTIL SS Medium 1 5.4 6.6 -1.2 -1.5 -1.2 -1 Ryan Jeffers 27 Majors C Low 3 40 11.5 28.5 22.8 28.5 34.2 Jorge Polanco 30 Majors 2B Low 2 31.9 22.5 9.4 7.6 9.4 11.3 Matt Wallner 26 Majors OF DH Medium 6 43.6 20.4 23.1 18.5 23.1 27.8 Total Value: 59.80

This is a VERY interesting topic, and something I see bubbling under the surface dialog while the remaining big dollar FA market continues to drag along. Luzardo would be the top trade target for the Twins. He checks all the boxes: Young and controllable. Talented!! Left handed. He won't come cheap. The Marlins want to compete NOW. The Braves and Phillies are part of their division and the Mets have UNLIMITED resources. Still, they earned a Wild Card spot in the playoffs in 2023. This is why they would be fine with acquiring Farmer and Vasquez. They are just what they need in many respects. Vasquez to handle a young and talented rotation. Farmer to bring a solid glove and clutch hitting to the gaping hole they have at SS. But those two guys could never get you near an acquisition like Luzardo. This is where Alcantara comes in and this is where I will disagree with JD-TWINS, a guy I agree with about 90% of the time. Alcantara is certainly worth the effort and the gamble. He's needed in this deal because his negative value due to not pitching at all in 2024 after Tommy John surgery and the risk of paying him going forward brings the cost of Luzardo within reasonable limits for the Twins. I would gamble on paying Alcantara $9 million to rehab in 2024 and gladly pay a pitcher with his talent (former Cy Young winner) $17 million in 2025 and $17 million in 2026 (there is a CLUB option for $21 million in 2027). A pitcher with his talent at a price like that, for his age 28 (not pitching) 29, 30 and a club option for age 31 years is a gamble worth taking. Imagine the Twins young lineup, pretty much at VERY affordable salaries with Lewis, Lee, Julien, Jeffers, Kirilloff, and eventually Jenkins. maybe Miranda is still around. I left off Emmanuel Rodriguez because you might need him to complete the deal. Now project that lineup with a rotation of Lopez, Alcantara, Luzardo, Ryan, Ober, Varland, Paddack, and maybe Raya. You've now opened an extended window where the Twins could be MORE than competitive. The Twins can shed some payroll by dealing Vasquez and Farmer. But to entice Miami to part with Luzardo they will have to pick up some of this cash and still be willing to pay Alcantara $9 million to rehab. A deal structured around sending Farmer and Vasquez as well as a prospect like Festa or Emm-Rod and accepting the risk of Alcantara does NOT include Kepler or Polanco. They could still be traded to cut more payroll or kept on the team where a decision would be made at the deadline whether to keep them or deal them. I may take a dive on the BBTV site to see what a potential trade like this would actually look like. I know some people dislike the site, and I agree it has some flaws, but it's at least some way to be reasonable when looking at a trade instead of expecting to trade Polanco straight up to Seattle for George Kirby or Logan Gilbert.

When year after year you control key pieces of a market, and in the case of Boras, star baseball players, you effectively have that "hammer in your hand" to bring a heavier influence to said market. He truly IS a market onto himself. As frustrating as it's been to see the Twins sit on the sidelines this off season, the truth is, it's very much a part of the Twins "character" to do so. Coming of a successful season that saw the Twins not only win the division, but also finally win a playoff game (actually TWO) just exacerbates our frustration as fans. But in all honesty, I don't want to see a trade just for the sake of making a trade. If the Twins are going to acquire rotation help it at least has to be somebody who would step in ahead of Ober, Paddack and Varland. Optimally, even ahead of Ryan. Right now, Lopez, Ryan, Ober, Paddack and Varland are probably the 2nd best rotation in our division (behind Cleveland). But we are incredibly THIN. Festa probably isn't ready, but "might be" by All Star break. SWR hasn't shown me anything to believe he'll ever be a major league pitcher. Our other pitching prospects are at least 2 years away. They need to trade for a SP with a certain amount of success and a track record. They need to make a value FA signing with some degree of upside. Someone like a Mike Clevinger. It's getting late, but I think we all know nothing is going to pop for the Twins until some of those big FA dominoes fall.

THIS is the move I've been waiting all off season for !! Finally, I can end my Hunger Strike !!

Great article Nick. Now my wife and I are on to Cooperstown!! Went when Tony-O and Kitty Kaat were inducted. We're going to drive out and back this time (now that we're retired) and make some stops along the way out and way back. Maybe stop and see Gettysburg, the Pro Football Hall of Fame, Niagara Falls...who knows?!!

Joe Mauer will make it in. Congratulations to him! When you consider how lucky the Twins had to be to get the #1 overall pick, and then have to choose between Joe, Mark Prior and Mark Texieria it's amazing how he ended up with us and the rest is history. Paxton will be a good #5 SP for the Dodgers, but with Buehler coming off his 2nd Tommy John surgery and Paxton and Glasnow also in the rotation, the Dodgers are playing Russian Roulette with their rotation and health. And that's not even mentioning Clay Kershaw at all. Chapman still has some gas in the tank, but to pay what they're paying for him is so out of the ordinary for the Pirates. Depending on how the season goes for them, I could see BOTH Bender and Chapman traded for good prospects as the rebuild continues in Pittsburgh.

I don't like the idea of signing a guy to what the Twins would view as "Big Money" to be a platoon player. I've never been that high on Hoskins anyway. Between Kirilloff, Miranda and Julien there is no need to bring in Hoskins or bring back Solano. We have youth covering 1B. What I think SHOULD be done with any financial benefit with a TV deal, would be the willingness to make a trade where the Twins take on a little more salary. Someone like, but not necessarily like a Luis Castillo, Corbin Burnes or Shane Bieber for example. Twins 00 NAME AGE LEVEL P1 P2 AVAILABILITY YEARS AFV SALARY SURPLUS LOW MEDIAN HIGH Luis Castillo 31 Majors SP Low 5 138.7 116 22.7 18.2 22.7 27.3 Total Value: 22.7 Mariners 00 NAME AGE LEVEL P1 P2 AVAILABILITY YEARS AFV SALARY SURPLUS LOW MEDIAN HIGH Jorge Polanco 30 Majors 2B Low 2 31.9 22.5 9.4 7.6 9.4 11.3 Danny De Andrade 19 Minors SS 0 0 0 7.1 5.7 7.1 8.5 David Festa 23 Minors SP 0 0 0 8.7 7 8.7 10.4 Total Value: 25.20 Here's an example of a deal for Castillo. Twins move the $10 million dollar Polanco salary and two good prospects for Castillo. Castillo is not a one-year rental like Burnes would be so he would be in the Twins rotation for several more years. The Mariners get some pop at 2B with the switch hitting Polanco but also a couple good prospects. A pitcher to eventually challenge for a rotation spot and a good 19 year old SS prospect. The Mariners also cut their salary by about $12-$13 million dollars. The Twins get a top of the rotation SP with an already fixed cost certainty for about 3 more seasons.

I think driveline definitely helped him and I hope he went back there. I think as he continues to develop more confidence in his sweeper and sinker and mixes them better he will be closer to the pitcher he was in the first half than anything he was in a disappointing second half. I'd like to see the Twins make a bold move to find a #2 starter ahead of him. But if that doesn't happen, I'm quite content to have him as our #2 going into 2024.

As a kid growing up, this was always my favorite Twins team. I was only 7 years old when the Twins won the A.L. pennant before losing to Koufax and the Dodgers in the World Series. I was just starting to learn about baseball and baseball cards. You're quite correct in how you described the pitching staff. Chance had been our Ace when we acquired him prior to the 1967 season and had also been good in 1968. He was to have led the staff with old reliable, Jim Kaat. Instead, Perry and Boswell had career years. Perry had always been just on the periphery of the rotation despite his consistency and success. In 1963 he started 25 games for the Twins. In 1964 that dropped to just one. In 1965, with injuries to Pascual and Boswell , Perry was a solid #3 SP for the Twins with 19 starts, 12 wins and a nice 2.63 ERA. He was the #3 SP in 1966 but by 1967 the Twins were going with Chance, Kaat, Boswell and Jim Merritt as their 4 SP's. All were younger and presumably, had a higher upside. Perry had 11 starts and Mudcat Grant had 14. Finally, in 1968 Perry was still #5 behind Chance, Kaat, Merritt and Boswell again. Boswell had always shown the talent to be a good SP. What he finally achieved in 1969 was within reasonable expectation. The fact that Perry finally won 20 games at age 33 was a surprise, and something I think the Twins never saw coming. Winning the Cy Young one year later at age 34 after years of effective pitching, but never anywhere near top of the rotation production also had to be a surprise to the Twins. By 1972 he was gone from the Twins and nowhere to be found in major league pitching leaders lists. Aside from Rich Reese's career year in 1969 the other Twins hitter to far exceeded expectations was Cesar Tovar. Killebrew, Carew, Oliva. You KNEW they would produce. Cardenas HAD hit pretty well for the Reds in the N.L. But Tovar, hitting .288 and stealing a club record 45 bases wasn't expected either. He scored 99 runs, cracked 11 HR's, 25 doubles and 5 triples. With a 34 year old Bob Allison a shell of his former self, Tovar came out of nowhere to add a different, speed based production. For an 11 year old kid in 6th grade this and the near identical 1970 Twins teams were my favorites until the 1987 & 1991 teams rolled around.

Forgot to mention Kirilloff and Miranda. JD-Twins helped with that.

I agree that the idea of trading Miami "prospects" isn't going to fly with them at this point. They want to contend for a Wild Card spot and see how far their pitching can take them. So somebody from the major league roster is going to be needed to make this deal. From Miami's perspective, I think they would require Julien rather than Lee. They need offense and Julien fits the bill if they move Arraez to 1B. The Twins may need to include Kepler or Polanco as well instead of Emmanuel Rodriguez (Jenkins is untouchable). What I like about this speculation is the addition of Alcantara into the mix as a negative asset for the Marlins. Paying Alcantara to rehab this season may not be in the Marlins plans but I would be more than willing as a Twins fan to take on that burden for the potential payoff of Alcantara in my rotation for the next 4 years at a price I think is reasonable for the Twins future budgets. Meyer is an unnecessary piece of the deal and somebody Miami needs to hold onto for present and future rotation depth. Maybe the deal looks more like this: Julien, Polanco and Vasquez for Braxton Garrett and Alcantara. Luzardo is too big a fish to land when Julien is the headliner. The Twins would still need a SP for their 2024 rotation. Garrett would instantly slide in at #3 with Ryan #2. The Marlins need a catcher as well so Vasquez makes sense. Julien and Polanco are in a 1B/2B/DH rotation for Miami and certainly upgrades their lineup while keeping Luzardo and Eury Perez at the top of their rotation. The Twins have a 2024 rotation of: Lopez, Ryan, Garrett, Ober and Paddack. Varland & Festa are in reserve, Varland is possibly in the Twins bullpen. In 2025 the rotation is Lopez, Alcantara, Ryan, Garrett and Ober with Paddack, Varland and Festa. Lee replaces Julien in 2024. Camargo becomes Jeffers backup. Twins starting pitching is deep and talented for the future as Lewis, Wallner, Lee, Jeffers, Emmanuel Rodriguez and Walker Jenkins start to populate the lineup. BOTH the Marlins and the Twins could say "No." One of them very well could say "No." But BOTH of them just may say "Yes." And it could work out as well as Lopez for Arraez did for both teams.

While I was thrilled with the first round pick of Walker Jenkins I was very intrigued by the pick of Soto in the Comp Balance Round A. The fact that he's hitting 98 with his fastball already and has an above average change up and slider is very encouraging. I agree that the best outcome is just that he gets through 2024 healthy and continues to refine his pitches and control. He's a LOT like Marco Raya. These two give the Twins great hope for future rotation/bullpen contributors. I expect the Twins to go slow with Soto much like Raya but the wait could very well be worth it.

I think Jocko is on to something when he says "we're in the middle of a standoff." At first you could have said it was kind of subtle. Heck, when the Dodgers were spending at the rate they were, that was just one of the "haves" in baseball's economics doing what they always do. You can include the Yankees in this example because they traded for Juan Soto with the plan that they would spend what it would take to keep him beyond this season. But there IS something going on below the surface that is more than just the odd "why haven't Snell and Montgomery signed yet" speculation. Hader finally signed with the Astros just last night and while he's a tremendous closer the money was yet again insane for a team that already had a pretty good closer. I for one won't just disdainfully discard what JD-Twins had to say about the Fantasy Baseball rankings of starting pitchers either. It isn't a perfect comparison, but I'm glad he took the time to share it. It's an interesting note that shows one particular valuation of something. In this case starting pitchers. More information is always better than NO information. I took that for what it was..."interesting." Not that I would use that as my "be all, end all" evaluation of the value or market for starting pitchers. I'm beginning to agree that we might not see a trade by the Twins anytime soon. We certainly aren't going to see them sign Snell, Montgomery or Bellinger. However...with the Blue Jays just signing the Cuban pitcher, Rodriguez, this COULD open the door to an Alex Manoah deal. Was the Rodriguez signing just for depth or to open up a possible deal? We'll see. In a deal like that, Polanco seems much more likely to go than Kepler. The Blue Jays already have an OF of Kiermeier, flanked by George Springer and Dalton Varsho. They don't have much at 2B. Polanco and something else for Manoah is still a possibility.

This is precisely why it's so fun to come to TD on a cold wintry day Nash ! I am of the camp that if the purse strings are unfettered in the near future (like TODAY!!) that starting pitching is the primary need, so I would prioritize Montgomery and Snell higher than Bellinger. BUT...Belly is indeed an excellent fit. I don't care that he's left handed. A hitter that HITS is a hitter. And the fact that he plays Gold Glove defense at either CF, 1B or RF doesn't hurt either. That said, if Bellinger were signed, it would have to be a precursor for additional moves. Moves that probably involve Kepler, Polanco and maybe Miranda. At this point, I'm content to see what a Kirilloff/Miranda at 1B gives the Twins. I'd like to hold onto Kepler but trade Polanco for pitching or prospects. But if Bellinger were signed, a whole range of possible moves open up. You could move on from Kepler because you replace him with Bellinger in the lineup. If you compare their careers Bellinger is superior in every way. You could trade Wallner in a deal to improve SP. Bellinger's defensive prowess means you have a fallback plan for Buxton in CF. You could replace Kepler in RF or have Bellinger at 1B. Or, you trade Wallner and Bellinger would give you Gold Glove defense in LF. How about an OF of Bellinger, Buxton and Kepler. Best in MLB. Adding Bellinger gives the Twins a green light to move corner OF's and you would still have Emmanuel Rodriguez and Walker Jenkins in the near future. You wouldn't be signing Bellinger without a plan to do SOMETHING with Kepler, Wallner, Larnach, Em-Rod and Jenkins. (as well as Kirilloff and Miranda). Jenkins is untouchable. I've just GOT to see what Em-Rod does THIS YEAR in the minors. But Bellinger makes a LOT of good talent expendable for the Twins to trade for pitching. Getting Bellinger allows the Twins to still add pitching, just through the trade market. Making a deal for an impact pitcher is fine with me if he can be #2 behind Lopez and a solid bet to be better than Joe Ryan (who could still be VERY GOOD). And if the price is right, I'd still add Trevor Bauer for a one year deal, maybe two, just to give Varland, Festa and Raya a little more time to polish their rough edges.

JD-Twins, Riverbrian and Roger, great insights and dialog. I appreciate that each of you took the time to make your points and the even handed way that you made them. I am a little bit smarter about this than I was yesterday. It especially helps having JD comment as a resident of "The Natti."

I appreciate the comment from Roger and gave him a thumbs up. But I also think Old Nurse makes a good point about driving 3-hours to see a baseball game. Now, I will admit that I've done EXACTLY THAT a couple times. Once to see the Cards play the Cubs at Wrigley with my kids and a couple times to St. Louis to see the Cards play the Twins. But that was before Target Field and I missed outdoor baseball and wanted to see it in a great atmosphere like Busch Stadium or Wrigley. The economic conditions in baseball are not fair, but as I said, the long-time drought of the Dodgers and Yankees is more a case of bad managers (nobody can do LESS with as much as he gets than Dave Roberts) or just ineffective front office moves like the Yankees. Just because those "Big Boys" are inept, doesn't mean baseball's economics aren't out of whack.

This only works (Vasquez for Jansen) if the Twins are serious about moving Duran to the rotation. Just saw a post on DN regarding THAT. The Twins only tick Duran off if they bounce him all over the place as a "high leverage hitman." Duran has earned his chance to start or close, but not to be jerked around. I think Boston's familiarity with Vasquez is what gives this type of move any legs. But again, it also only works for the Twins unless Duran transitions to the rotation as our #2. What would the end game be beyond this season? Jansen isn't coming back. Who's the Twins closer for 2025? Canterino? Varland? Back to Duran? There is no guarantee Duran would make a seamless, injury free transition to #2 starter throwing 150+ innings. There's less uncertainty if Canterino stays healthy and pitches well. Same with Varland. But with all the risk for the Twins, the unknowns, and the addition of $6 million in payroll I'd rather just stick with the status quo if Vasquez as a part time, $10 million dollar catcher and Duran as my closer.

Just wrote about Montgomery and Snell on another post this morning bemoaning the fact that it's just bad for baseball in general that those two pitchers (and Bellinger) were still out there in mid-January. Then this hits! I would love them to sign either of those pitchers but I'm realistic enough not to expect it.

This should be an exciting time for baseball fans. Instead, it's like watching paint dry, inside your house on a beautiful summer day. Let's face it. Owning a pro sports franchise is pretty much a license to print money nowadays. Some teams, like the Dodgers or Yankees have tremendous revenue advantages due to the insane amount of money their local TV and media deals bring them. If you're Cincinnati, Pittsburgh or Kansas City this is a real problem. If you're the Twins, in a mid-market that budgets in ways often difficult to understand, it's frustrating. Consider this: Cincinnati is a city of about 300,000 people. I know this this because just this morning I heard on the news that each day, about 300,000 people cross our southern border illegally, and it was mentioned, that's roughly the size of Cincinnati. Mpls/St. Paul has a population of 3,691,918. That's TEN TIMES the population of Cincinnati ! Now I know that doesn't mean you should just multiply the Twins payroll by 10x Cincinnati's but the Twins are NOT a small market team. I'd love to see a way that MLB could make it possible for the Reds or Royals to be able to sign a guy like Snell, Montgomery or Bellinger. The Twins, based on market size alone SHOULD be able to compete for either of those 2 lefty starters. I know there is a luxury tax and some form of revenue sharing, but something is not working right when the Dodgers can sign Ohtani, Yamamoto and Teoscar Hernandez and trade for Tyler Glasnow's $25 million dollar 2024 contract. And the Dodgers probably aren't done. It's fair to point out that despite winning a World Series in the Covid season of 2020 the Dodgers haven't won a full-season World Series since 1988. The Yankees since 2009. That's a testament more to how poorly these teams have been managed both on the field and in the C-Suite despite their enormous revenue advantages. Baseball ownerships and front offices just don't seem to care about the fan. Imagine the excitement in Minnesota if on Friday the Twins announced a 3-year deal with Blake Snell or Jordan Montgomery?? We won our division last year. We finally won a playoff game. We need a SP. We REALLY need a LH SP ! There are two just sitting there. But there is inertia in MLB. Nothing's happening. Derek Falvey just stated that the FA market seems to break later and later each year but that he fully expected the market to MOVE by mid-January. Well Derek, it's January 17th today. That's about as "Middle of January" as you can get in Minnesota. Instead, all I have to comfort my baseball and Twins fandom are "wind chill factors." Ugghhh!

Great topic Nick ! I've read everyone's comments and I align most closely to NashvilleTwin and Dman. To me, this isn't a very difficult question. The "potential" for Em-Rod is too great to trade him going into the 2024 major league/minor league season. We would NOT get a clear #2 SP back with just Em-Rod alone. We'd have to give up more. With Lopez, Ryan, Ober, Paddack and Varland, rotation reinforcements are needed. But not at the cost of the potential upside Em-Rod brings. I'd let the 2024 minor league season play out. Em-Rod's value could skyrocket or it could crater. I'm willing to take that risk. I certainly prefer having a 20-year slugger who already shows patience at the plate over a free-swinger like Eddie Rosario. And it's quite possible that as Em-Rod moves up in the minors he will see pitchers with better command and "naturally" become a little more aggressive early in the count. The idea that the Twins have a young core like Lewis, Jeffers, Julien and Wallner already up, with Lee, Em-Rod and Jenkins on the fast track is not only exciting, it's extremely advantageous for the near future. Who else could emerge from this group? I like having a Platinum Gold Glove winning SS like Noah Miller in the system as well. It would be fantastic if the Twins just said, "the heck with it, we're signing Jordan Montgomery or Blake Snell on Thursday!!" All it would cost is money, which can be made up down the line with a TV deal of some kind and increased attendance and concessions/souvenirs. It would bolster that rotation with a veteran arm for the 2024 season and beyond while giving extra time for Festa, SWR and Raya (not to mention Varland) to develop. Sadly, at the price of Monty or Snell it's Just. Not. Going. To. Happen. Not with the Twins. This is why trading a Polanco or Kepler for an Alex Manoah lottery ticket makes so much sense for 2024 and beyond. And/or signing a Trevor Bauer or Michael Wacha to a one or two year deal. Horde those prospects. Let them develop, and see what your lineup looks like in 2026. it could be REALLY SPECIAL.

Matthew Trueblood makes a good point that the change in leadership with the Marlins may have altered their short term and long term goals and outlook. If indeed, they are not willing to pay Arraez through several arbitration hearings as his price goes up, who else may they be unwilling to pay? Even if it's someone on a 5 year, relatively affordable contract to most baseball teams but burdensome to the Marlins?? I'm referring to Sandy Alcantara their former Cy Young winning pitcher. Due to Tommy John surgery, Alcantara is set to miss all of 2024 but should be ready to go for 2025. On BBTV's he's a whopping negative 39 in value with having to pay him $11 million in 2024 just to rehab. To me, this is a tremendous opportunity. I could unload Christian Vasquez (they need a catcher badly) or Jorge Polanco (they still need offense and Arraez could play more 1B/DH) straight up, one for one for Alcantara. The Marlins COULD consider this because they'd have 2 years of cost certainty with either Vasquez or Polanco. Maybe you throw in a Larnach? If the Twins would be willing to be patient with an eye on 2025 and promote Camargo in a Vasquez centered deal or a Polanco deal the payoff in 2025 would be tremendous. Imagine a rotation with Lopez and Alcantara at the top with Ryan and Ober having one more year of development?? Add in one more year of Varland and Paddack as well as Festa and SWR being one year closer and you not only have depth...you have TALENT !!! I would like the Twins to think in terms of a 5 year plan and not so much on year to year. One year rental players just leave you with the same hole the following year. (Michael Taylor). Look for bargains where a long term gain is beneficial as opposed to a short term gain. The Marlins very well might not even consider this. But who on TD thought we'd be reading about Luis Arraez being available after winning his 2nd Batting Title in a row?