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TopGunn#22

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Everything posted by TopGunn#22

  1. TopGunn#22
    It's good to know Stewart should be back by the end of July and Topa sometime in early August. Counting on either however is risky, especially Stewart. When he's "dealing" he's tremendous. But staying healthy has been an issue his entire career, Varland could be a big help, or a total flop. One thing IS certain. They need a dependable LHP in the pen. Funderburk and Okert have not impressed. Thielbar is soon to be DFA'd in my opinion. They need a lefty. The offense is clicking now even without Lewis. It's gonna hurt that he will miss as much time as he will but he will be the "deadline bat" this front office adds. Wallner mashing would also be a tremendous boost.
  2. TopGunn#22
    Good article !! These are some interesting options. A LOT of this depends on the return of Stewart and Topa and the eventual addition of Varland to the BP. As always, this comes down to cost of acquisition. Let's start winnowing them down. Jansen-Don't see the Red Sox trading him. They are competing for a Wild Card. Cruz-Don't really see the Reds trading him either especially with the multiple years of control and the fact that he strikes guys out by the ton. Yates-A proven closer and high leverage guy but probably far too expensive (prospect-wise) and a FA at seasons end. Yimi Garcia-Health and impending FA make him unlikely. Nick Mears-Interesting arm that we could probably improve upon. 27 years old currently on a one-year deal for $750,000. A decent possibility. But with Stewart, Topa and possibly Varland, what role does a RH arm like Mears fill when Cole Sands has be decent?? Andrew Nardi-Left-Handed...CHECK!! His stats don't look good but his underlying stats look very good. He's not a junk-baller with a 96+ fastball and a hard biting slider. I see Nardi as a definite target. A package for him and Jesus Luzardo would check 2 boxes. It would probably be steep but could prove to be well worth it for 2024 and beyond. I lack confidence in Okert. I see the end for Thielbar, and for as much of a booster as I've been for Funderburk he's struggling this year. He needs to polish up some rough edges for sure. I know Vasquez is a negative asset, but he would be considered a Silver Slugger at catcher on the Marlins. Their catchers are the worst in baseball and they don't hit. The Marlins have a young pitching staff that Vasquez could be very beneficial to. They were reportedly interested in him this last off season. A deal for Luzardo and Nardi would take some prospect power, maybe a Gonzalez or Julien. But if Vasquez were thrown in and we paid the remainder of his salary for this season along with Julien/Gonzalez and someone like Winder/Zebby Matthews, maybe that would be good enough to get Luzardo and Nardi. I'm all for giving Jeffers more AB's and a chance to Camargo.
  3. TopGunn#22
    He seems much more patient and locked in to what is a strike and what isn't. He also isn't trying to do "too much." He's not swinging for the fences, trying to lift the ball for a superior launch angle. He's taking the outside pitch the opposite way, he's turning on middle-in pitches with a vengeance. Max Kepler had a couple of AB's a couple games ago where he just pushed the outside pitch into left-center field. He picked up clutch RBI's on each hit. If I didn't know better (and I don't) I'd swear the Twins have made a subtle change to their overall approach. We're now seeing the Miranda that we all expected/hoped for after he had terrorized AAA pitching in St. Paul. His first year was promising. His second year was terrible, maybe due to health issues. But this year he's a #3, #4, #5 hitter in a potent lineup. A bat like that MUST stay in the lineup, defense be damned. He should get the majority of his AB's as a DH but still fill in occasionally at 3B and 1B. Santana has played too well this season to give up AB's to Miranda, but starting in 2025, if Santana is a one-year rental, Miranda should be the primary 1B/DH. Next year will truly be make or break for Kirilloff unless he's traded at the deadline or during the winter. It pains me to say that, but the guy with the "Will Clarkesque" swing is running out of chances. With Brooks Lee up now, and with Correa and Royce Lewis, SS, 3B and 2B are covered for the most part. That leaves Miranda, Kirilloff and Julien to battle for 1B/DH. Julien can fill in at 2B, Kirilloff in LF/RF and Miranda at 3B when not playing 1B or DH'ing. That's SOLID flexibility, and I haven't even mentioned Castro. Depending on the continued development of guys like Larnach, Wallner, Kirilloff and E-Rod, Castro could be starting in LF a LOT in the future. This is a GREAT problem to have going forward.
  4. TopGunn#22
    I have been forbidden to mention the former Cy Young pitcher who is currently dominating the Mexican League on pain of suspension, so I will not mention him. However, I will point out that while he remains a divisive character, he is precisely what the Twins need. An Ace level SP who could be had at the league minimum with affordable incentives if he pitches well. From the Twins standpoint, he checks all the boxes. It couldn't be more teed up. I would wager that if he was outstanding in his first 5 starts or so he could be signed to an affordable 2-year contract for 2025 & 2026. For some reason, we can't seem to have a civil discussion about what he could bring to a Twins rotation. Much like politics today, a civil discussion does not seem possible. That disappoints me. I like politics and the interesting discussion/debates of various policies. Nowadays that is discouraged or flat out forbidden. I understand and accept that discussion of said pitcher is discouraged so this will be my only comment unless the moderators decide we can handle any future discussions in an acceptable manner. But from a purely BASEBALL standpoint, the Mexican League guy would look pretty darn good as our #3 SP.
  5. TopGunn#22
    Not much to argue or dispute what you guys have laid out here. One of the more interesting 2025 roster decisions will be how Julien fits into everything with Brooks Lee fully on board. There is no doubt in my mind that Julien will be back up sometime this season and will produce at a desired level. That will lay the groundwork for how things will stack up in 2025. We have young talent emerging offensively. That often entails some ups and downs as that young talent further matures. The timeline is different for everyone. Lewis showed that when he's healthy, he's an impact bat. He just has to stay healthy. Julien and Wallner were pretty darn good last year but endured terrible starts to their 2024 season. Brooks Lee had a nice debut last night and he will continue to show promise while probably struggling a bit at times. Jeffers was an All Star who suddenly hit a wall. Can he regain his swing?? I like what I've seen from Larnach this season. I hope he can keep building on it. Miranda has bounced back emphatically. The biggest disappointment for me is Alex Kirilloff. He has such a nice swing, but he's running out of runway. Especially when you see the improvement from Miranda and Larnach. And there is still Emmanuel Rodriguez on the way and a rebounding Wallner. And as always Walker Jenkins lurks for the possibly not too distant future. When he's ready, he will shove almost anyone else to the side. What we certainly have right now though is a rotation that is one SP short. Lopez is looking much better lately as the staff Ace. Ryan is showing is first half last year was not a fluke. He's showing Ace potential. Ober and SWR look like viable pieces of a rotation. But that final spot is a black hole and with the struggles of Festa and Varland and the next best options just getting their feet wet in AA there is no immediate or even next year candidate available in our farm system. Something needs to be done to patch that hole this season and for the near future until Festa or Matthews or anyone else in AA has a little more polish than they do right now. A trade? A free agent signing? A trade or FA signing that brings a heavy expense to the payroll just isn't going to happen with a Pohlad owned team. That much is a certainty. Can this front office come up with a miraculous move to put the Twins in a better position??
  6. TopGunn#22
    Good point LambchoP. I conveniently and erroneously left out the fact that he's injured now and can't help us in the immediate future. And no trade could be made unless and until the Twins were confident that a full recovery would be expected for Luzardo. I think the Twins still need someone reliable to fill out their rotation. Someone with a proven track record of success but who wouldn't break the bank in a trade or signing. I imagine the Twins are scouring all available options and are having internal debates about what is out there.
  7. TopGunn#22
    I agree that Festa doesn't look like he's ready. It's debatable whether they should even give him one more start. He's given up 5 runs in 5 innings in start #1 (it was somewhat overlooked with a 13-run outburst) and now 7 runs in five innings last night. He's just not ready. There was another thread on the topic of trade interest in Matt Wallner. As Doogie was the source there is always a little bit of skepticism regarding his "scoops," but I would like to suggest a package with Wallner being a part of it in a trade for Jesus Luzardo. We have a gaping hole in our #5 spot in the rotation. Paddack is not the answer. Festa is not the answer. Varland is not the answer, and Dobnak is not the answer. Luzardo is having a bad year year for a now "dumpster fire" Marlins organization. His value appears to be the lowest it has been in a long time. I'm not sure where Wallner's value is at after his rough spring and now red hot June, (he had roughly a 14.0 value last time I checked BBTV's in the winter) but improving the rotation by adding a #2 with 2 more years of control after this season seems like a good move for the "NOW" and the "FUTURE." I would be happy with a staff or Lopez, Ryan, Luzardo, Ober and SWR. It's not like I'm desperate to give up Wallner. I love his power and cannon-like arm in a corner OF. But we need to shore up our staff in the "now" and "future" time frame and with Emmanuel Rodriguez on the way and Trevor Larnach showing a bit more consistency I would pursue a move like this. It would probably take Wallner and "something else" to pull it off. I don't use Baseball Trade Values anymore because I refuse to pay for something year round that I would only use in July and maybe December-January.
  8. TopGunn#22
    RpR, I meant no disrespect for Maury Wills. I just wanted to highlight that Mays had a much better year than Maury had in 1962 and that Willie's team actually won the National League Pennant over the Dodgers. Ever since Sandy Koufax pitched the Dodgers to a World Series win over the Twins in 1965, the Dodgers have been my 2nd favorite team and Koufax was a player I admired greatly. I don't understand why you're trying to stir something up from my comment, but I do notice that you frequently give "Thumbs Down" reactions to many people's takes. That is your right, but I do think you go out of your way to be "contrary." By all means I am not demanding you change your adversarial nature, but the tone of your comment to me was odd and out of place. You seem to be the only one commenting on this topic who seems to want to stir the pot. I wouldn't even have commented back if I hadn't gotten a notice that someone commented back to me on something I'd written. I clicked on it and it took me here. The comments on here are a week or so old, so I'm hopeful you've calmed down since then.
  9. TopGunn#22
    Waldschmidt makes sense. I always appreciate the time and work you put into this Jeremy. Projecting the MLB draft is a LOT tougher than the NFL or NBA.
  10. TopGunn#22
    None of the listed pitchers would probably be of any interest to the Twins. If the Twins really had ANY interest in Snell, they would have signed him before all of his current struggles, both in performance and with health. The Twins need a pitcher with a solid major league track record, who is currently healthy and who would sign for a very cheap contract, maybe throw in some incentives, because I'm sure we would all agree, they are probably NOT adding much to the payroll for the rest of this season. There might be a guy who fits this profile out there, but I doubt the Twins would want to trade any minor league talent to get this kind of guy. Paddack is currently hurt and out of the rotation. If we're honest, Festa didn't really pitch that well in his first start, giving up 5 runs in 5 innings, but they've got to give him a longer look. Lopez has looked better. Ryan is pitching really well, and Ober has looked better recently. SWR has earned the #4 spot unless he goes on a month long slide.
  11. TopGunn#22
    This is REALLY INTERSESTING info Riverbrian !! I would never have guessed that the Twins were so far down the line. But I guess this is what happens when you cling to a vet like Thielbar who really started to slip last year and came into this year by far the most expensive arm in our bullpen, while being virtually guaranteed a minimum of 2 stints on the IL (and probably more) and/or sign a host of retread bullpen arms at the expense of a Funderburk or Alcala, or clinging to a Farmer or Margot when a Brooks Lee or Kiersey or even a Wallner could or should be playing instead. This winter I repeatedly listed Cleveland as my main worry for defending our divisional title due to the fact that they always pitch effectively, and teams that pitch well are ALWAYS in games. The difference for Cleveland THIS year is that Kwan is hitting almost .400 and Ramirez is mashing. Top to bottom their lineup is slugging much better than it has the last couple of years. The other factor is the EXTREME correction by Emmanuel Clase from last year to this. Last year, Clase was much worse than he'd been in the previous couple years. THIS year, Clase is having an EPIC season out of the bullpen. Cleveland knows how to use Clase, and it shows. Rocco doesn't have a clear cut role for Duran...and it shows. THAT'S why Cleveland is running away with this division. I hope the twins can rally and make it a race after the All Star break.
  12. TopGunn#22
    He lost an MVP vote to Maury Wills in 1962, the year Wills stole 104 bases and the Dodgers lost in a playoff to the Giants and the Yankees eventually beat S.F. in seven games when Bobby Richardson gloved Willie McCovey's 2-out line shot. Mays played 162 games, hit .304 with 49 HRs, 141 RBI and 130 runs scored. Mays slugged .615. Contrast that to Wills who, because of the playoff played in ALL 165 games that year, stole his 104 bases, hit .299 and slugged .373. He also scored 130 runs but only drove in 51. Wills was never praised for his defense. His entire career it was borderline average. Mays on the other hand won the Gold Glove in CF and actually led his team to the pennant. There is a strong case to be made that Willie should have won the N.L. MVP in 1962.
  13. TopGunn#22
    Technically Duran blew a "Hold" as he came in for the 8th inning and it wasn't a save situation unless he had come out to pitch the 9th as well. I agree with RV78 regarding our manager. It's spreadsheet, spreadsheet, spreadsheet for Rocco. I don't think I've ever seen him make a move that would have departed from his spreadsheet. I once saw Billy Martin send Rich Reese up to pinch hit with the bases loaded in the 7th inning of a game against the Baltimore Orioles in 1969 with lefty Dave McNally on the mound going for what could have been a major league record 16th win in a row. The lefty vs lefty matchup is something Rocco would NEVER do. Reese hit a Grand Slam HR to deep left center field at the old Met Stadium, something Justin Morneau would refer to as an "oppo taco." At some point, a manager needs to "manage." Not just glance at a spreadsheet and check a box.
  14. TopGunn#22
    I appreciate the effort for the article Matthew but "fringy bullpen guys who have struggled this season" are not going to solve the Twins problems. They need to fortify the bullpen by putting Varland in and moving Paddack there after calling Festa up to fill his spot in the rotation. A trade for someone like Jesus Luzardo to bolster and deepen the rotation along with Pablo getting back on track would go a long way too. I realize that fringy RP's who are struggling in the current season is the lowest cost, highest reward possibility. But if we're honest, bringing in 4 guys to replace all the bullpen slugs we signed during the off season just isn't going to move the needle. Moving on from Thielbar ASAP would also be addition by subtraction.
  15. TopGunn#22
    I have a hard time predicting what this FO will do as well. That includes Rocco, who continues to use Duran in non-closing situations. Not sure why he felt the need to bring him in for the 8th inning in a non-save situation. Who was going to pitch the 9th if we had gone to the bottom of the 9th with a lead? I don't think Duran is happy with his usage. It may be affecting his pitching. Most teams have clearly defined roles for their bullpens. Rocco never has. It's been a disorganized hodgepodge since he became our manager in 2019. "Saving guys for leverage situations" just leads to confusion with your role. The most successful bullpens I've known in MLB have a 7th inning guy, an 8th inning guy and a CLOSER. The Twins were ready to have Lee break camp with the major league team in spring training before the injury bug bit him. I agree that some additional time at 2B would help him, but I think he could handle 2B with Castro becoming the full-time LF. They haven't gotten squat from Farmer all season and it's clear keeping him at $6.6 million was a major mistake by this FO. We have the benefit of hindsight as fans, but we're just calling them as we see them. The veteran bullpen pieces with the exception of Staumont have been major fails as well. We would be better off cutting ties with most of the veteran off season acquisitions and just go with younger players to get a better handle on decisions that will need to be made for next year. The purpose of the minor leagues is not to win championships, although that's not a bad thing. The purpose is to develop talent for the major league roster. Lee is still a SS but he's blocked from playing a lot of SS by Correa for the foreseeable future. He should have been playing half of his games at 2B since last season. If he hasn't, that's a failure of the FO and those in the organization who determine these things.
  16. TopGunn#22
    In the span of about a week the sports world lost three iconic athletes: Willie Mays, Jerry West and Bill Walton. It was a blessing to have been able to witness each of them in televised games while still in their prime.
  17. TopGunn#22
    I'm not very excited by any of the options mentioned. I'd be O.K. with Taylor Rogers but he costs more than our entire budget for the BP the rest of this season and next year. It's the reason why we traded him to the Padres in the first place...we didn't want to pay him. His cost kills any chance we bring him back. I'm happy going with Funderburk and Varland in the BP immediately and hopefully Stewart within a couple more weeks. I'd be happy to move Paddack to the pen and have Festa take his place as #5 SP. But if we do make some trades at or before the deadline I'm more interested in a solid SP like Luzardo than spare parts in the bullpen. We may very well trade Kepler. I think I'd rather see us do that than just let him walk at the end of the season. Maybe Kepler is involved in a trade for a SP or another bat. We'll see. I think adding Brooks Lee's bat to the lineup and hopefully getting Julien back and producing like he did last year would be enough for the offense. Why trade for Pete Alonso when Carlos Santana is out producing him so far. It probably won't hold up but I still can't see Alonso in a Twins uniform.
  18. TopGunn#22
    I say to heck with this talk about getting Brooks Lee up by or just after the All Star Game. Get him up NOW !! DFA Farmer and make Lee your full time 2B. Move Castro to full time LF (it's his strongest defensive position). If Max has to go on the IL get Wallner up at least for the time Max is on the IL. Brooks Lee can also play some SS when it's time to DH Correa once Julien makes it back to the big club. To me, it doesn't look like Wallner has figured much out. Nothing significant has changed. He still strikes out waaaay too much. But the dude has 17 HR's. He is who he is...a guy with tremendous power who whiffs a LOT. Unless they want to finally give Kiersey a chance just bring up the 2nd coming of Joey Gallo and hope he makes just a little more contact than Gallo. Might as well find out now because Max is gone at the deadline or after the season and Kirilloff looks like he'll never figure it out. Larnach is back to hitting groundballs to 1B 50% of the time and the Twins should at least promote E-Rod to St. Paul before calling him up 8/1 or 9/1. At this point, I'd rather just go with Funderburk and call up Varland to be a part of the pen than waste time with all the bullpen retreads the FO signed. They have all been disappointments. Okert has been passable but seemed like he pitched so scared his last couple outings missing time after time with his backdoor breaking ball. His constant nibbling put him in precarious positions to succeed. Thielbar should be traded or DFA'd within a week. The Twins have rallied to within 6.5 games of Cleveland but wasting AB's on guys like Farmer when Brooks Lee should be up isn't helping. I think Jocko nailed it when he said the roster moves in the next week should be VERY INTERESTING. Because it's time to make them.
  19. TopGunn#22
    I think Dman raises a VERY INTERESTING point. Could Cijntje throw RH out of the pen on Tuesday. Then throw LH out of the pen on Wednesday and come back on Thursday throwing RH? (and so on). That is beyond intriguing. Or, how about he's a starter as a RH pitcher and could give you an inning here and there out of the pen as a LH relief pitcher in the days between his next start as a RH? Starts game on Monday RH, throws an inning in relief on Wednesday LH, and then throws another inning in relief on Friday LH, before starting as a RHP again on Saturday. Kind of like Ohtani, where you get an elite hitter who is also a very good pitcher, you'd be getting 2 pitchers for the price of one. Could this actually be done? Think of the added flexibility it would give a manager. You could carry a 3rd catcher comfortably or another position player. If you had a Nelson Cruz/Ohtani level DH it would be invaluable.
  20. TopGunn#22
    There is no need for someone like Kjerstad when you already have E-Rod and Walker Jenkins in the pipeline. The Twins need to focus on getting better and more consistent talent in their starting rotation. That could be SWR if he continues to be effective, or David Festa, or someone like Jesus Luzardo. But trading Jax is not "helpful" to the team, especially when Jax is pitching like he's been. If he's going to get more expensive as he goes to arbitration it's because he's EARNING it. That's an acceptable problem to have. I'd be looking to move guys like Thielbar, Farmer and Margot for WHATEVER I can get, and be planning on promoting Brooks Lee sooner than later as well as the possible return of Julien and Wallner at some point. Personally, I'd LOVE to see Kiersey finally get a chance to to see what he's got. If Thielbar is traded or released in the very near future just promote Funderburk and get on with it. Funderburk was always going to be a better pitcher THIS season and certainly for the future. Why help solve Baltimore's bullpen issues (with this year's absence of Bautista) by gifting them with Jax and Varland just to get another LH hitting corner OF like Kjerstad? I'd rather sell high on Cole Sands right now if a package including him and Larnach or Kirilloff could be part of a deal for Luzardo.
  21. TopGunn#22
    I think SaberNerd hit the nail on the head when he said he'd rather have a really good bullpen arm than a #7 SP. And I don't understand the idea that it has to be an either/or decision. Johan Santana started out in the bullpen. Heck, Tommy Hall (The Blade) was a bullpen guy in 1969 and the Twins gave him a bunch of starts in 1970 and he was outstanding. He was traded to the Reds prior to the 1972 season for Wayne Granger as the Twins needed a true "closer" with Ron Perranoski's effectiveness falling off a table and Hall thrived as a bullpen guy with the reds for several years after that. Also, we don't need to trade for a LH bullpen arm once we DFA or trade Thielbar. We just need to promote Funderburk.
  22. TopGunn#22
    I liked the Lewis pick at the time and I still like it now. To me, he was the SS that I hoped we'd get in the Correa/Buxton draft. Now, seven years later, he's had a position change, in large part due to us having Correa. Of course, we need Lewis to stay healthy. But what I've finally been able to see of him is better than I had actually hoped he'd be when we first picked him. He's special.
  23. TopGunn#22
    Where is Matt Canterino in all these reports? Is he hurt AGAIN??
  24. TopGunn#22
    I agree with most of what you say Doc, but disagree on Thielbar. I made it clear this off-season that I thought he was too expensive (highest paid bullpen arm) too old/brittle (due for a minimum of 3 stints on the IL) and based on his slippage in 2023, just not good enough anymore. I wanted to package him in a deal and get something for the future. Now I think that's unlikely. Funderburk is the superior pitcher right now. I'd deal Thielbar if there were any takers and if there weren't, DFA him and call Funderburk back up. By the way, how is Canterino doing?? I haven't read anything about him in our minor league/prospect recaps. Is he hurt again??
  25. TopGunn#22
    It's pretty hard to defend the indefensible with the way the Twins are playing. The blame can be spread everywhere, because from ownership and their salary cutting mandates to a manager who lives by the spreadsheet but rarely displays an awareness or sense of the game taking place on the field in front of him to under-performing players galore this is a team that is losing fans for this season as each day passes. Even us hard-core baseball fans are finding this "product" difficult to watch.
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