Fatbat

Miami loves cheep guys so Polanco, Martin, Festa and Severino for Luzardo?

Agreed. Based on past results, 50 or higher. Possibly around 80. But ‘24 may be a development point where they actually fit in about 30 which would be outstanding.

I am a bit surprised that Ryan and Ober are 30,31. If they and Lopez get off to a great start, would he possibly have 3 allstar pitchers?? In addition, what if Varland and Paddack are for real and have an ERA close to 3.00 in the first half of ‘24. The possibilities are exciting but not expected. Honestly, I would like to trade back for Berrios. Wouldn’t that be wild?? I have been perusing the top 100 amateur draft prospects and the international signees list. The ‘24 class could be really something to watch over the next 4-5 years as they develop. Just sheer numbers of picks and signees could be amazing…. but I digress. Hopefully we stay healthy way longer than the ‘23 roster did and we have a commanding lead in the central going into the allstar break!!

I believe Miranda has an option left so he may start in AAA but if the FO does pull off a trade or 2 with a couple vets along with Gordon, Larnach, (young pitcher) &/or a prospect, We will suddenly have less depth but many questions answered. I doubt anything will happen until very late in the offseason. There are a few teams that could use a gordon or larnach as bench depth. Its just maximizing the return for them.

I’m not worried about Miranda, AK, C4, Buxton and Gordon. They all dealt with major injuries and are at least solid MLB’rs or super stars. Health will breed success. None of them are past their prime so these guys should be crushing it. Stay healthy boys!!

Every guy you talked about has dealt with serious injuries and has healed up. Nothing has been career ending. Guys get hurt and come back all the time and improve as they enter the prime years. Question marks get filled in with answers and that will happen in the next couple months. The FO has addressed roster changes. Its called next man up and the guys that are done with rehab. When healthy, we have an abundance of talented depth. Its gonna be fun watching these kids rip it up in spring training. There wont be a single position that has AAAA starting or depth.

As Julien developed last year at 24 yo, didnt he finish the year with above average defense that made his full year average? He made huge improvement but no one talks about that. as for Lee, he isn’t much younger than Julien and he tore through the Minor leagues. At each level, he started what some people say was slow but he progressed so quick that he kept getting promoted so how anyone puts a ceiling on him at 22 yo is beyond me. His AAA time was the smallest sample size and yet Lee blew up to elite levels in the final 16 games when most guys wear down from the longest season in their career. I understand that if Miami wanted to do straight up Luzardo for Lee, its a no brainer but that isn’t realistic! 3 years from now, Lee could be an allstar and Miami could have Luzardo on the table getting his UCL fixed. Todays reality is, Lee is our shiney new tool. If he is the best in our tool box, play him and figure out where. We are so lucky to be able to debate things like this instead of, can we find the next Castro hidden talent because we don’t want to watch AAAA guys shuffle in and out all year while we go a putrid 70-92.

SI has a great article based on a Falvey interview. He is getting plenty of trade calls but nothing of value yet. He hopes things pick up late January but it sounded like other FO don’t value any of our guys high enough to get a deal done with any player. Hurry up and wait, winter is getting longer and colder.

You could even keep one of those guys and still buy a #1. At some point in ‘24, the FO will be making a deal. People on here have little patience.

None of those corner OF’s was a #8 draft pick with the ceiling that Lee has. All that really was, was a FO continually drafting the same player type and not knowing how to build a championship team.

I agree with your 4 not getting it done. I don’t think anything will be done before 4/1. I have an idea that Lee is on the MLB roster early enough that the twins get a comp pick for his fast track to MLB. That pick is tradable and it can/will be included in a trade before the allstar break. An established vet will also be part if the trade along with a Headrick/SWR type pitcher or two. The timeframe also corresponds to more clarity of the media deal/revenue issue.

There isn’t and wont be a log jamb in the Twins infield. Both Polanco and Farmer will be gone no later than 2025. Lee is 22 years old and the best infield prospect we have and will be here for a decade. He has a much higher ceiling than his detractors claim. Other than having problems hitting lefties, he is well above average at everything else. 38 games is a very small sample size. Lets split hairs and look at his last 16 games. He was elite. At the end of his first full pro year, he was elite. At 22 years old in AAA. Julien is the Twins #1 hitter but no one will pay his market price until he hits lefties. and when he develops that skill, he will not be sold at any price be cause thats allstar status. Within a year or so, our IF will be AK, Lewis, Lee,C4 and Julien. The fab five. The best in MLB. The FO knows this. They will find another ace by trading other assets but not our toptier guys.

I believe its club first/player 2nd. Contract terms don’t change if a trade occurs.

Polo has a team option for 2025 so no QO for him until November’25. Kepler would be the QO in November’24.

There are alot of people in here that probably don’t like what you posted but from a strictly business perspective and moneyball philosophy, you are spot on. If the young guys can hold their own. Dump the salaries and burn thru the AAA guys and replace them with more A guys. Eventually you have to pick enough top talent to win tho.

Seems like we are finally bringing raw talent in and developing it. Some will leave via trade but what a great asset to have on the farm. The huge crop of pitchers from the ‘23 draft will be right behind them. If we can trade for an ace this offseason, maybe the next 2 or 3 will come from within.

There are many ways to rearrange a 130M budget. If a deal works out for Burnes, there will be at least 1 to 2 almost ready pitching prospects go to Miller town along with a vet or 2 on short term deals. It may make the budget stretch to $140M but who cares other than the Pohlads. Burnes wont be a rental, a Pablo like extention will be part of the deal.

I would imagine they will give him a month in Florida and 2-3 months in cedar rapids. He will force the organization to send him to AA mid summer. He will make the adjustments to the breaking balls and he will be a Saint in 2025 following an invite to spring training a short yr from now. Wichita is the place to be in ‘24 if you want to see future allstar OF’s.

There sure seems to be a lot of disagreement about how much and where some very talented yet young homegrown pitchers will be playing in ‘24. Canterino is healthy. He may be the 6th starter and we may have a 6 man rotation in April. He may be a piggyback to Varland in game 5. He might be the opening day starter for the Saints. We will find out soon enough. As long as his arm doesn’t fatigue, he will be a Twin because he has got the talent to be in MLB. He will be here in April or May. Martin has more than a 50% chance to make opening day. He will be an outstanding rookie and he will be scoring alot of runs for the twins in ‘24. Lee will be up sooner than most think, The kid is for real and mgmnt wont have a choice. He will be a long time centerpiece in our infield no later than May ‘24. Mgmnt will figure out where to put everyone. His bat and his D play will get him to MLB with or without injuries to teammates. Festa will be a mid season call up. When he gets here, he won’t go back down. Some will wonder why he didn’t arrive sooner. He needs to add better control to his resume. C. Lewis will also be a mid/late season call up when guys need rest. His stuff is for real. SWR is a wild card. He might be in a taxi back and forth across the river if injuries plague the Twins. Severino and Carmago will be in the river taxi ride as well when guys get dinged up. Both may be on the season ending roster and be solid contributors but that means established vets had a real bad ‘24. that leaves Erod. He might be our Evan Carter guy. He LOVES the spotlight as much as Royce. He is so young and so smooth tho. Fast forward to September and that kid will be the shiney new toy ready for a deep playoff run. Kep, it was nice to watch you play for the last decade. We wish you well in ‘25. 2024 is going to be a great rookie class. This is why the FO is bz signing minor league fill in talent.

@Hawkeye Bean Counter @chpettit19 For the sake of argument or agreement, lets say Kepler has an outstanding year of D per usual and has an above career norm year at the plate and ends with something +\- about 3 WAR for whatever team he plays for in ‘24. Does he get a QO ?

Lock Larnach in that room until spring training starts 😂

Asking a multibillionaire to suck up $8M isn’t hard to do. Once a successful TV revenue deal is in place, the franchise asset value will probably increase by over $100M over night.

Someone need to develop a batting simulator (like golf) that helps a batter become proficient at adjustment to different pitches.

Yes. Even if he only had an average year, our SP staff would be better right now. If you think $12M is fair compensation to him but you overpay by $8M then the FO could either suck it up or cut that amount some other way. He likely would have turned the QO down anyway.

No one will every be $11M Gallo bad. $20M isnt that much $$$ anymore. I suggested the FO hive a QO to Maeda. Either way he would have chose, we would be better off right now.