Fatbat

Hoskins would be nice but its obvious the FO isn't making deals any time soon. We may be 45-60 from even having a broadcast/streaming deal. If you’re impatient now, just wait, it’s gonna get slower.

Analytics. Low leverage RPs age 26-32 with MLB experience and some retooling get better results than 21-25 yo prospects.

Don't the twins have 2 potential buys? One for the streaming rights and one for the tv broadcast rights? There has to be a little built in leverage there. If the Twins can split that market, can’t they shop the streaming rights to 5 or 6 different services? IF the banko judge approves everything, Amazons $115M will just be seed $$$ so they can negotiate long term deals with bigger mark teams as current deals expire. The long term play must be for them to own a majority of team contracts and sell big bundles to daily viewers and more expensive 1 game or weekend type passes to casual fans. You could have super fans paying $200/season to stream 20 teams’ games or $75/season to stream 3 teams games. Casual fans could pay $5 for a weekend series pass to watch their fav team.

I can’t imagine a day that the Pohlads don’t own the Twins but what a glorious day that would be. If they would have just said two things as a team (official statement) after the playoffs. “Even tho our media revenue is uncertain at the moment, we are committed to winning the world series. We will do whatever it takes to capitalize to our current management and players to bring home the only trophy that matters to our fans.”

After listening to Gleeman and the geek podcast, they bring up several interesting topics/concerns and senarios. The MLB lawyers seemed to be blind sided. What if the banko judge doesn’t go along with the proposal and throws out the whole reorganization plan. What kind of negotiation power do the twins have since they are mid market with no contract. Are they gonna get last years A/R. $8B old value. $1B new value and $8B Liabilities/ A/P. It kinda boils down to Amazon buying more n for pennies on the dollar and will teams with expiring contracts in the next year or two take the easy $$$ contracts from Amazon or will they not. If I were sitting in the Pohlads media office with Co lawyers, I would try a strategy of a starting a bidding war even tho they dont have much leverage but the sales point would be. Other teams will follow us if the revenue is ever increasing and stable. The game of baseball and its broadcast/streaming has to be viable, affordable and attractive to old fans, new fans and future generations. Like it or not, that’s probably with Amazon.

Or assets get shifted around internally. We got 6-8 more infielders that will be developing and at the same level that Lee is at rn so this type of discussion in going to carry on for years but the names will change. Some will fail. At least 1 could/should/will be better than Lee and stick longer. At least we are drafting the right kids so we can talk about cool stuff like this.

Left handed pitchers love Julien a bit more than Lee. Lee is a switch hitter but stronger from the left side and stronger against righties. No question that Lee has significant development ahead of him. I have made the argument before and will continue to that advanced prospects sometimes do better if challenged more. Guys that get a taste of the varsity can then understand what it will take to stay there and some thrive right away. Some need to bounce back and forth. Do the twins need Lee in ‘24. NOPE. Can Lee force them to bring him up by developing his weaknesses and advancing his best skills. Absolutely. A year ago, many on this site ripped Julien and still do for inadequate defense. Prime reason to leave him out of the top 100 prospects as well. He is now rated the #8 2nd baseman in MLB. His defense was above league average in Aug-Oct. All of that development happened in about 100 games played against the best. He still can’t hit LHP but I bet he is spending time right now working on his greatest weaknesses. When Lee comes up, we will know 2 things, he has the confidence of mgmnt to be here and he is better than he was last year. What he does with it is up to him. I’m betting that he will be here for a long while.

If the twins, and it appears this is plan A, throw out the first half of ‘23 and roll with 2nd half of ‘23 and build on it. Why can’t a 95 win season be a FO expectation instead of just wishful thinking? It really sounds like there are some very hungry young guys that are going to knock on MLB in ‘24. Anyone that thinks a vet in spring training that obviously wants to hold onto his job but sees the future, wont play a little scared in April/May. If that drives some extra motivation, we could get out to a very nice lead in the central. Then does the FO put the accelerator to the floor and bring up any one of a number of prospects that are tearing up the minors? Success breeds more success as they say. There is probably an equal chance of some early struggles and major injuries but for the sake of argument, what if the season starts out similar to what the Rays in ‘23.

That may be true! How many teams are ahead of us that could claim him? Is he that bad in the batters box or is he like other guys…. He can play but not for the Yankees org.

What a diamond in the ruff! He may only be 18 yo but his mental maturity is off the charts. No idea where his ceiling is but Dwight Gooden type career would be incredible. I would expect him to spend all of ‘23 in Florida but if he blows thru development and is just a plain beast, is Iowa ready for him in August?? I would bet on him being a one of a kind type and develop quickly.

I don’t think a claim for Bubba and wasting a 40 man spot on him is the best we can do. Sign him to a minor league would be cool but he will most likely be claimed by some other team before that.

MLB has to be shook up at the influx of white knight $$$ coming into the banko proceedings. The plan to eventually control all of their broadcasting rights in house is most likely up in flames. If the last remaining individual teams negotiate a multi year deal with the new org structure , its a done deal. Amazon and their partners will own it and control it for many years. Is that good for the fans? Maybe in the short term but how high will streaming fees go? How will the revenue be divided? so many questions! Even in the short term, will MLB acquiesce to the proposal or will they object?

Julien was nowhere to be found a year ago in any top 100. He is also 2 years older than Lee. Lee tore up AA after a short adjust period. Thats why he got promoted quickly. After 5 weeks in AAA, an even shorter adjustment period, Lee tore up AAA in the last 3 weeks of the season. Everything points to him tearing up spring training and AAA if he isn’t on the opening day roster. Last I checked, mgmnt will play the best players on the 40man and find a place to play them. At almost 23 yo, what says Lee can’t be a perennial allstar? I just don’t understand how fans can dump on him before he ever gets to the show. If Lee would have stayed in AA in ‘23 and finished the last 8 weeks with a .320ba and .980 ops everyone including the experts would rank him higher and be mad at the org for not promoting him earlier.

Ober has always had a chance to be an ace. Another 5 years of him dealing and developing is absolutely possible. Everyone of our SP’s are in a position to take another step in their development. Grays record last year was due to a lack of run support when we were was less than stellar on offense and bullpen malfunctions.

2022 had a nice rookie class. Ryan, Duran and Miranda.

Lewis’s ACLs were both bad luck! AK had his arm bone fixed and its a non issue. His shoulder is slso fixed so there is no reason to pencil them into further injury talk. Taylor was a nice fill in for buck. Buck is back and while healthy which he is, should be an upgrade to MAT. A healthy Buxton could be allstar material. If he fails completely, we have depth. Not allstar depth but we can match MAT ‘23. lets say 2 guys slump ala Gordon/Miranda /Gallo’23. So what. 2 more guys will step up. The organization is deep at every position but pitching. There are enough rookie possibilities that we can have the customary 2-3 guys take the next step into MLB. It happens every year. We don’t know who will but there are 5-8 guys that are close. They wont all fail. They wont all be 140 ops+ or 3.00era 1.1Whip but we will get good rookie production. We always do.

I probably a way overly optimistic guy when it comes to our farm system but recent history suggests that your statements will be close to the truth as long as guys stay healthy. The pessimistic say that prospects fail more than they succeed. Ok fine, I will agree, but lets lump the Cavaco’s and Sabatos into the failure (so far bin) and lets put the Erods, Lees and Jenkins into the (successful so far bin). We know what bin full of guys will go to MLB eventually. Whats not going to happen is that that bin full of guys will fail more often than not. Sure, a percentage of them will fail and a percentage will be bouncing back and forth but there is also some that will be allstars. Every decade we will get someone HOF. Im just saying we are overdue for someone HOF that came thru our farm system so the odds are in our favor. For ‘24, we do have a great mix of vets and young studs on the 26 man. Even if everyone is just solidly average, we win 87 games. Again. There is plenty of things that point toward 92-94 wins. A lack of health which leads to poor performance is about the only downside that is a glaring possibility. We aren’t depending on any AAA types unless its an injury plagued team. The industry smart guy’s aren’t real high on our farm system but they sure like Julien. Where was he on the top 100 prospect list a year ago. Thats right, he wasn’t on it. ooops. Erod is somewhere around 50, He was recently interviewed and says his goal is to be in MLB this summer as long as his health is good. Sounds like he knows what he needs to do to get to the show. He sounds very motivated. I’m not going to bet against him. Lee said much the same thing when he was interviewed a couple month ago. He even praised Lewis for his help in pitch recognition. Don’t sleep on Lee, he is coming.

The FO is active and probably in the midst of preliminary talks to get a substantial list of deals to start negotiating sometime, possibly in March. We should be prepared to hear about out favorite minor leaguers get ST invites but also be prepared to talk about a block buster minor league signing as well as a minor MLB deal to add to the 40 man. Or not. 🤷‍♂️

Just in sheer numbers of mediocre past results pitchers, the Twins have plenty of options and chances to get 1or2 guys to change results in ‘24. We are thin in SP depth and that will best be solved closer to the trade deadline. The FO will have a spreadsheet of possible trade candidates to target by august. They will get a guy. Hopefully the right guy.

He will be in the show in ‘24. Probably wont be huge impact but we need obp guy(s). He and Castro can spell Buck in CF. As long as he has a productive role, the Twins and Martin will deliver some fun ball games. Steal some bases snd score some runs. We need that.

Alcala has the best shot at being something special this year. He is healthy and full of confidence. Balazovich…. 98% chance of crash and burn but never say never. He might actually be on the opening day roster. Sands and Winder are in the same options river taxi. …. Unless one or both decide that MLB is the place to be. I’m betting on them getting the taxi rides. In an emergency break glass… Randy Dobnak Those AAA FA signings will look real good in Saints uniforms. Maybe one will call Dobbers for an uber ride across the river.

But we are replacing Taylor with Buxton. Gray needs to be replaced by 8/1. Farmer, Castro and Vasquez are still here. Maeda is replaced by Paddack. Donnie barrels can be replaced from within by about 7 different players. Keep throwing bodies at the wall until someone replaces Donnie…. It wont be hard to do. Our farm system has plenty of guys to fill a hole or two. I haven’t even mentioned all the other guys coming off significant injuries that will likely have positive progression which will offset any regression. This is not the year that the FO is going to waste $10+M on FA failures.

So last year we didn’t have Buxton as a right handed bat in the OF all year long but this year he is going to be out there. So thats taken care of. Unless you want a 30 something year old RH guy that is on the down slope. I would take my chances with Buxton, Castro and about 3 guys in the minors. Chances are best that those 5 guys can hold down CF better than last year. I agree that we should find another front line starter but we have until the trade deadline in July so lets just exercise some patience on that one. The infield doesn’t need anyone from outside the organization. We have depth. The bullpen is the bullpen. Guys will come and go like they always do. No reason to discuss that either until the FO actually makes a deal, then we can pick it apart or congratulate them. It will probably bring some high fives and equal amounts of hand wringing. Compared to last year, this team as it is, is already better because of health and a successful season to build off of. Not many names have changed but thats good because the guys that brought winning baseball after the allstar break are almost all here and all are healthy. The best teams always have 1-3 impact rookies. We have that also. actually about 7 or so and we only might need 1 or 2 of them.

But we need to go buy Joey Gallo again and hope he isn’t Joey Gallo again. …. and the Pohlads suck cause they are cheap. Snarky panic rant over🤣

Baseball is addicting… it should be sold like crack 🤣