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ashbury

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Everything posted by ashbury

  1. ashbury
    Comps are an underrated form of analytics today and were used for decades before Bill James ("he looks like a young Joe Dimaggio"). Thank you for these insights.
  2. ashbury
    There is footage of Royce "Hopalong" Lewis rounding second after pulling a quadriceps. Close enough?
  3. ashbury
    A completed sale by Opening Day, as speculated, still means no major moves until the ink is dry. Trade deadline, though? Hmmm...
  4. ashbury
    Okay, but that is a non-answer on his part, that doesn't address what we actually want to know. Others have done this and probably better, but here's my synopsis. At the end of the season, the Twins shed the salary obligations of DeSclafani ($4M since other teams were paying part of his $12M), Kepler ($10M), Santana ($5M), Farmer ($6M), and Thielbar ($3M). Weighing against that, for 2025, Pablo Lopez's salary goes up from $8M to $21M. Paddack goes up from $2.5M to $7.5M. Correa goes up from $32M to $36M. And then you have players in arbitration who'll get pay raises: Castro, Jeffers, Ober, Ryan, Jax, Larnach, Lewis, Duran, Alcala, Topa, Tonkin - that's a lot of small numbers and I don't know the arbitration outcomes, but the sum combines to be significant because some good players are getting their paydays. Doing nothing, the FO still faces a higher payroll. Ownership says there won't be lower payroll, but carefully avoids saying the obvious. I don't see where anyone here was taking this opposite tack, either. Well I hope not. You're a good poster here. I'm sorry that my response looked too personally harsh.
  5. ashbury
    Source? All I could find was silence all-around.
  6. ashbury
    I give "young" Joe Pohlad (who is older than any of my adult children) credit for learning not to say the quiet part out loud. He got a lot of blowback from using business-speak to refer to "right-sizing", and since then has clammed up about money. In a very pointed interview by Aaron Gleeman, Joe was pressed on matters concerning payroll. When Aaron speculated that revenue was down in 2024 and asked what impact that would have on payroll, Joe gave the correct answer in terms of PR: "I'm not going to get into payroll right now." If he had something positive to say, such as "a decline in revenue won't push payroll downward," he would have grabbed that opportunity to say it. The most optimistic view is total payroll remains unchanged. But some salaries have gone up year over year, and the departures of Kepler and Santana don't make up for that. In light of Joe's non-statement, I think the onus is on those who believe "salary does not need to be cleared" in the form of Paddack, Vazquez, and Castro, to give some evidence why. An article like this one on what shape a salary dump of Paddack would look like, is a worthwhile discussion. That's a nice strawman to close your rebuttal with. Did anyone in this thread imply something like this at all?
  7. ashbury
    Split the difference - they figured out what to do with a guy who had run out of gas. 😀
  8. ashbury
    But that does hardly anything to address the reason for trading Paddack away in the first place: the salary he's being paid.
  9. ashbury
    For a player like Cartaya who you wouldn't dare put on waivers during the DFA process, that is correct. Guys like Dobnak get DFA'd and brought back seemingly at will.
  10. ashbury
    Hoping for Ramirez to regain the magic touch against LHP that he had in 2023 might require that he regain the .447 BABIP he enjoyed against them that season . Anything can happen in 124 PA. There's your magic. 😀
  11. ashbury
  12. ashbury
    Well that's good. But buying into the narrative by even calling it a "problem" elevates it. Look at it from the other team's perspective, though. The Twins had fewer than average CS, but they also had fewer successful SB against them. That taken together means attempts were far below league average, near the bottom. Kansas City had far-and-away the fewest steals attempted against them; but the Twins are in the next lowest tier with a few other teams, a group that no one was running against in any large numbers. One reasonable conclusion is that other teams attempted steals versus the Twins only when the runner felt especially sure of making it. Whether by throwing out runners or simply inhibiting the attempts (which is partly on the catchers but not entirely), by hook or by crook the Twins on defense kept the opposing running game in check. That's the opposite of a "problem." And then we nitpick how it was accomplished and call it a problem anyway.
  13. ashbury
    Looking at CS and declaring there to be a problem is approximately on a par with judging defensive skill using only fielding percentage. 😀 Are other teams stealing bases in large numbers? No? Then the various ways they do not reach the extra base are arguing at the margins - yes it's nicer to erase a runner and ring up an out, but it's infrequent whichever team you are looking at. The Marlins led the majors in CS, one every 4 games or so, and no one points to the Marlins as a team to emulate. CS are interesting, but referring to it as a problem is a second-order effect at most. Success rate on a small number is still a small number.
  14. ashbury
    What stolen base problem? The average MLB team surrendered 121 SB in 2024. The Twins allowed 112. No one was running wild, per the poster you were responding to; don't accept a false narrative.
  15. ashbury
    Yabbut they went sumpin like 22-0 against the White Sox, didn't they? 😀
  16. ashbury
    Depending on how some other team views him, I would like to see Gonzalez's value be put to maximum use by including him in a trade for significant major league talent. Mercedes I would hang on to, a little more tenaciously, in trade talks.
  17. ashbury
    MLB.com has an amazingly fantastic glossary of terms and this is one that they cover: https://www.mlb.com/glossary/transactions/designate-for-assignment I remembered 10 days, and it used to be, but now the DFA process is limited to 7 days. The (separate) waiver process, in order to outright a player to the minors, requires 3 days. A team can fit those 3 days into the 7-day window any way they wish, as I understand it - and the waiver is not necessarily announced publicly. But trade him or cut him or outright him, they have to make their decision in 7 days.
  18. ashbury
    A lot like Nick Gordon. The gamble when taking such a player is that he will blossom in one of the important tools, and not be merely average across the board. The Twins apparently tried to get Austin to hit with power, and I think that was the plan with Nick too. They stuck with both at shortstop for longer than results warranted, as well.
  19. ashbury
    You mean with sentences like "That's now what hitting is all about, these days," which probably reverses what the author actually intended? Oh well, I cna ytpe 300 wrods pre mniuet!
  20. ashbury
    Austin Nopower. No, baby, nooo. In just about every aspect of his game, I see a player lacking in confidence. He doesn't throw with confidence, he doesn't swing with confidence. He looks more concerned about not making mistakes. I don't know what the coaches can do with him at this point. This analysis does a nice job of highlighting a major weakness, with its informative charts on swing speed and angle.
  21. ashbury
    It's regrettable the cowboy drawings appear to be all behind the STrib's paywall. I was hoping to see.
  22. ashbury
    I believe DSP still has a seat on the board of directors. An advisory role is an excuse to pay him a stipend. That board goes away once any sale is completed. I foresee him being completely gone after that.
  23. ashbury
    What I read was "just find the best hitter available in the team’s budget." The team has no budget to speak of. I don't know who we could sign or trade for.
  24. ashbury
    Stopped reading at this point. No, not really. But this is an example of why I can't take FangRaphs seriously. I know I am supposed to love their site, but I just can't. Back to the actual article. The 2025 Twins are not simply one mid-level free agent away.
  25. ashbury
    No. Regardless of context, it still does not.
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