-
Posts
40,805 -
Joined
-
Last visited
-
Days Won
462
Content Type
Profiles
News
Minnesota Twins Videos
2026 Minnesota Twins Top Prospects Ranking
2022 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks
Minnesota Twins Free Agent & Trade Rumors, Notes, & Tidbits
Guides & Resources
2023 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks
The Minnesota Twins Players Project
2024 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks
2025 Minnesota Twins Draft Pick Tracker
Forums
Blogs
Events
Store
Downloads
Gallery
Everything posted by ashbury
-
I always come back to the notion that even if Arraez is close to a one-tool player, that tool is the most indispensable one, and his hit tool is elite. To the argument that he doesn't provide power, it's easy to counter that with "it's a team sport", with some players setting the table and others driving them in. You might not want a batting order with 9 Luis Arraez types (of varying talent level - a lineup of all .350 hitters would be pretty darn good, but those are unicorns as you say), since you'll normally need 3 base hits in an inning just to score one run and not even Ty Cobb batted .500 in order to do that with regularity. But you wouldn't want 9 Dave Kingmans* either, at the other extreme. Balance is key to good offense, and Luis Arraez can be part of such. You mention OPS and I always like to point out to its detractors, who'll say things like it overrates home runs, that 1) it's only a quick and dirty stat and doesn't promise Absolute Truth about anybody, and 2) unlike any other component, it values batting average TWICE in how it's computed, homers or walks only one way each. I think it's actually pretty good for a q'n'd stat, and counting base hits twice (in OBP and in SLG) seems about right. Batting average is important, and it's how Arraez earns a good OPS even with minuscule ISO; he doesn't slug, and yet his slugging average isn't embarrassing. Ultimately, though, I turn the "team sport" argument around the other way, and point out that someone like Arraez himself doesn't do for his teammates what he expect his teammates to do for him: drive in runners. And for all his hitting prowess, he's on a 162-game pace to score only 95 runs this season. That's very good and every team would love to have that from its regulars; the average team last year scored about 750 runs, or about 83 runs for every spot in the lineup. But 95 isn't other-worldly, and the other-worldly batting average kind of misleads what his full contribution is. At some point you have to stop blaming the teammates and acknowledge he infrequently puts himself on second base to be easily driven home, and he almost never drives himself in with a homer, both of which are ways to assure yourself of scoring more runs with the same batting average. He never really "yield(s) a lot of runs scored." Not a lot lot. Plus, he's only on a pace to drive in 42 runs, and it's not useful to say it's not his job. That's part of yielding a lot of runs too. Runs are the job and every contribution matters. Yes he's a unicorn, and it's easy to over-value those. IMO we did great by obtaining an established starting pitcher in trade for him. * Old school reference, I know. One of the complaints about the "modern" three-true-outcomes style of play is that it's turned every batter into Dave Kingman. While Dave himself was a fun oddity in his day, the effect of everyone being like that is dull for many observers.
- 13 replies
-
- luis arraez
- first base
-
(and 3 more)
Tagged with:
-
A's (Estes) vs Twins (Ober): 6/15/24, 1:10pm (postponed)
ashbury replied to Brock Beauchamp's topic in Archived Game Threads
A visit to an Asheville NC restaurant changed my view. Sauted in a little oil as you say (I think sesame oil was involved), garlic, lemon, some brown sugar, grated ginger - that was what I could reverse engineer, and it turned my opinion around completely. Then again maybe anything bathed in a thickened gingery lemonade, with a little cooked garlic and sesame, is probably improved except my morning corn flakes. -
A's (Estes) vs Twins (Ober): 6/15/24, 1:10pm (postponed)
ashbury replied to Brock Beauchamp's topic in Archived Game Threads
I once saw Cale described as your favorite guitarist's favorite guitarist, FWIW. -
Don't draft anybody as a second baseman. Be honest and call him a good defensive first baseman or so-so left fielder, and draft because you totally believe his bat plays if he's stationed there. This is even if he's a college man. Because, a quick scan of first rounds of the draft a decade or so ago suggests this is what you end up with on a draftee designated "2B". 2B leads you to fool yourself that he's almost good enough to play SS - but he won't be. Tons of guys with the SS label in the draft aren't good enough to stick there either, so don't kid around about 2Bmen. You'll get your 2Bmen from the SS who wash out. What's that? Edouard Julien was drafted as a second baseman? Yeah, as an 18th rounder. This is a first-round discussion, yes? (And plenty of folks will argue that Eddie's not destined to stick at second, even now.) (I have to go back to 2011 to find a first-round exception, the illustrious Cory Spangenberg. Oh, okay, Kolten Wong, later that same first round - yeah he's been good.)
- 8 replies
-
- mlb draft 2024
- travis bazzana
- (and 3 more)
-
A's (Estes) vs Twins (Ober): 6/15/24, 1:10pm (postponed)
ashbury replied to Brock Beauchamp's topic in Archived Game Threads
He got a base hit in his one opportunity after being plunked. I suggest someone on the bench just keep playfully tapping him on that spot on the arm, to keep his head in the game. -
4 Triple-A Hitters Ready to Upgrade the Twins' Offense
ashbury replied to Cody Christie's topic in Twins Minor League Talk
If you had spelled out that it could also be one, or the other, you might have earned a coveted Yes from Chief.- 37 replies
-
- matt wallner
- brooks lee
-
(and 3 more)
Tagged with:
-
Correa strikes me as possibly like the old saying about cocky guys such as AJ: "You hate him when he's in the opponents ' dugout, and you hate him a little less when he's in yours." No, I don't think it's actually quite like that, but this survey might be reflective of something along that line.
- 37 replies
-
- carlos correa
- anthony rendon
-
(and 1 more)
Tagged with:
-
Key is how closely the metric matches customer experience, or is simply the only proxy for it on hand. Such a different domain than baseball, though.
- 121 replies
-
- alex kirilloff
- matt wallner
-
(and 1 more)
Tagged with:
-
A's (Estes) vs Twins (Ober): 6/15/24, 1:10pm (postponed)
ashbury replied to Brock Beauchamp's topic in Archived Game Threads
Plus you don't even need the box to know when the Twins' *ahem* more selective hitters are getting jobbed by the umpire. 😊 -
Fifteen years ago, maybe. But, baby steps, baby steps. 😊
- 48 replies
-
- max kepler
- simeon woods richardson
- (and 4 more)
-
A's (Estes) vs Twins (Ober): 6/15/24, 1:10pm (postponed)
ashbury replied to Brock Beauchamp's topic in Archived Game Threads
His acoustic version of "Over the Rainbow" was barely known until Judy Garland did her cover of it. / edit - I do lie, I do lie -
A's (Estes) vs Twins (Ober): 6/15/24, 1:10pm (postponed)
ashbury replied to Brock Beauchamp's topic in Archived Game Threads
Hi-yo! -
A's (Estes) vs Twins (Ober): 6/15/24, 1:10pm (postponed)
ashbury replied to Brock Beauchamp's topic in Archived Game Threads
J. J. Cale. I don't lie. -
The A's already got Mason Miller out of Pittsburgh. 😀 Good article, and I'm not going to be constructive this time.
- 17 replies
-
- jp sears
- brent rooker
-
(and 3 more)
Tagged with:
-
I don't necessarily hate any of these acquisitions but would not want to pay much in terms of prospects. Bader for example is Manny Margot except apparently still with centerfielder's chops; if the Mets were to accept Manny plus a low level prospect (outside our top 20 or 30, say) or two, sure, that's an upgrade worth a little effort I suspect. Severino probably will cost more than I'm willing to give up for a good pitcher on an expiring contract. Manaea looks iffy but maybe the price in prospects is close to nothing, though the question of his player-option for next season would have to be addressed. Ottavino's ERA is unsightly but at a quick glance he may have run into bad luck and is actually still at career norms for performance even at age 38. Fun to think about, devil's in the details.
- 29 replies
-
- sean manaea
- luis severino
-
(and 2 more)
Tagged with:
-
Matt Wallner Is Finally Finding Himself at Triple-A
ashbury replied to Nick Nelson's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
He OPSed 1.104 in 133 PA, May 30 to July 1, 2023 at St Paul. Probably interesting stats could be found by compiling his career minor league stats on alternate Saturdays, too. You can find all kinds of interesting **** in small samples. 😀 -
A's (Estes) vs Twins (Ober): 6/15/24, 1:10pm (postponed)
ashbury replied to Brock Beauchamp's topic in Archived Game Threads
Frog legs twitch when current is applied, even after amputation. I'll wait until Max is back in the lineup before declaring him alive. -
A's (Estes) vs Twins (Ober): 6/15/24, 1:10pm (postponed)
ashbury replied to Brock Beauchamp's topic in Archived Game Threads
Man. I stared at those lyrics before posting, and still didn't see it. It was right there. -
Matt Wallner Is Finally Finding Himself at Triple-A
ashbury replied to Nick Nelson's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Finding himself? He's already been at AAA two previous seasons, and did better. Recent trends may be good, but short stretches of 100 PA here and there can be misleading. Best to count all the stats. As I just got done saying in another thread, a similar "past few weeks" analysis would have us installing Manny Margot as our everyday left fielder. I'm a long time believer in Wallner, but even so I want to tap the brakes a bit here. -
Pretty sure it's the slider that does that. HTH, HAND. 😀
- 24 replies
-
- david festa
- brandon winokur
- (and 5 more)
-
Sounds like a rhetorical question, yet I'll answer it. 😀 Split the season at the mark where Margot hit bottom in OPS, namely May 17. 92 PA, .169 BA, .468 OPS, .203 BABIP Since that date: 53 PA, .340 BA, .883 OPS, .381 BABIP A straightforward way to look at it is that the BA on Balls In Play leads the way for the rest of the stats, and a nice stretch where the hits are falling in for him have helped bring him close (but not quite there yet) to career norms having a BA in the range of .250 and a BABIP just short of .300. A little more of this good stretch and then normal rates of hits falling in could keep him as a backup the rest of the way. That second line of numbers is no more believable than the first one, as a reflection of him as a player, and the truth lies somewhere in between, which the accumulated season stats are now reflecting. There are people who are (rightly) skeptical about this current good stretch, and yet were willing to take the bad stretch at face value. "Which player do you want, Player A or Player B?" "I want Player B, obviously." "Ha! They're the same player." Mind, such numbers as backup would be what I presumed would be tied to CF skills, an expectation that most of us have found disappointing. These are not numbers for a backup corner outfielder, regardless of the quality of defense there.
- 48 replies
-
- max kepler
- simeon woods richardson
- (and 4 more)
-
I'd feel better if our struggling major leaguers currently at AAA hadn't fattened up on a young, highly touted prospect who unaccountably has encountered a wall in AAA and can't get anybody out all season. Last year he wasn't as bad as this, even at AAA. Not a true test for us.
- 24 replies
-
- david festa
- brandon winokur
- (and 5 more)
-
A's (Estes) vs Twins (Ober): 6/15/24, 1:10pm (postponed)
ashbury replied to Brock Beauchamp's topic in Archived Game Threads
She don't lie, she don't lie, she don't lie. That rain. -
A's (Spence) vs Twins (Woods Richardson): 6/14/24, 7:10pm
ashbury replied to Brock Beauchamp's topic in Archived Game Threads
Just like my cousin's prom night.

