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ashbury

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Everything posted by ashbury

  1. ashbury
    Seems like a narrative in search of some different set of outcomes than the actual. 2019: 307 HR (#1 in majors), .623 winning percentage 2020: 91 HR (#6), .600 pct (shortened season) 2021: 228 HR (#5), ..451 pct 2022: 159 HR (#12), .504 pct (season not yet complete) Rocco won the year after the 307 HR even though the HR somewhat declined relative to the rest of the league, the HR stayed at about that same relative level but the wins nevertheless took a nosedive, and finally the HR declined some more yet the wins bounced back some. Not a very strong correlation IMO.
  2. ashbury
    The latest shiny, new, sky's-the-limit trinket? Yeah, prolly.
  3. ashbury
    I for one am going to be a LOT more circumspect in my posting, going forward.
  4. ashbury
    Or he'll muddle along.
  5. ashbury
    The manager is put in a bad position whenever a starter gives up a four-spot in the top of the first inning. Every analysis seems to assume someone fresh will come in and put zeroes on the scoreboard the rest of the way, but that isn't how even the best bullpens function. Rocco made a choice or two as the game progressed, after the first home run (nobody's saying to pull Bundy before that, are they?), and the result was 8 2/3 innings of 3-run baseball. Kudos to Aaron Sanchez of course for a lot of that. A 3.12 ERA is better than the Twins' season average. Twins woulda won if Bundy had limited the damage to 1 run in the first (4.00 team ERA for the team/game) instead of what he did (7.00 ERA for the team/game). Blame for this loss goes to Bundy, 100%. Well, 50% to him for not doing better, 50% to the FO for picking him and thinking they had accomplished much.
  6. ashbury
  7. ashbury
    Ick.
  8. ashbury
    That's true of all science fiction. With enough ifs, any article drifts into candidacy for publication in Analog Science Fiction and Fact. If Gray has a clean bill of health If Mahle isn't done for the season If Ryan becomes better If Buxton comes back at all If Larnach's batting woes were injury induced If Polanco comes back healthy I'm only barely paraphrasing what was the heart of the article, paragraphs 4 and 5. My focus on "if" didn't even include taking issue with a statement like "they can be as good as anyone during a short series." Even fully healthy, no, they can't. Except in the very basic, literal sense that sometimes even the Nationals beat the Dodgers, and the Twins are indeed better than the woeful Nats.
  9. ashbury
    Because someone's on base against Pagan, all the time? / okay, the bases are clear after each home run
  10. ashbury
    Well yes, of course. That's always been the roster strategy with the up-the-middle positions. Catcher, shortstop, center field - you need guys who can flat-out play those positions. The question is, what's the threshold below which you can not "tolerate" the offense? We found out last year with Andrelton Simmons at SS, that a complete black hole in the batting order puts the team at a competitive disadvantage. Celestino had the hot start but lately he's been in about that territory in CF. We're seeing the same with Sandy Leon at C now. No one is demanding a Mauer level of offense, but even a defense-first position has a limit on how much below "zero" you can achieve while preventing runs, so that chasing better and better gloves (with zero bat to go with them) reaches a point of diminishing return.
  11. ashbury
    From the article: Infielders may not switch sides. In other words, a team cannot reposition its best defender on the side of the infield the batter is more likely to hit the ball. Huh. I thought restricting the shift was akin to regulating zone defenses in other, lesser, sports. Now on reading this detail, they're kind of banning man-to-man defense as well.
  12. ashbury
    You don't even want to know about the super double-secret 67-day probation list.
  13. ashbury
  14. ashbury
    If you're saying Aliens had something to do with that one throw, I don't know how I'd contradict you.
  15. ashbury
    He's good. He's established himself as a major league starter. It's just that the expectations on him are high, because we don't have other young candidates currently establishing themselves likewise. He's not really who you'd want starting Game 2 of a post-season series, for example, but we may need to ask that of him. It's a bit much.
  16. ashbury
    The arguments provided in this article amount to basically ifs, ifs, and more ifs, in my opinion.
  17. ashbury
    jokerclapping.gif
  18. ashbury
    What kind of an insane throw was that from Brooks Lee? The guy really is something!
  19. ashbury
    Then he'd fit right in. Rimshot gif
  20. ashbury
    Looking at the injury risks who failed is one starting point. But I'll add to the picture, the injury risks of acquisitions who've panned out. Chris Archer had spent the last several seasons on and off the injured list. We've gotten 4-5 innings per game out of him, with pitch counts generally in the 70s From July onward, though, his ERA even under this light duty has been 6.64, with the team's record 1-8 in that span. Dylan Bundy, never a workhorse, pitched all of 2020 and was on the injured list for part of 2021. We've gotten 5+ innings per game out of him, with pitch counts generally in the 70s to 80s, His results from July onward have been around league average, with an ERA of 3.88 with the team's W-L of 7-4 in that span. Sonny Gray was on injured lists at times 2020-21. We've gotten 5-6 innings per game out of him, with pitch counts generally in the 80s to 90s. His results from July onward have been around league average, with an ERA of 3.93, with the team's W-L of 5-6 in that span. Archer had a strong beginning, and provided some value. Both Archer and Bundy have put undue strain on the bullpen resources. Gray, averaging about 1 inning more per start, has not been the kind of ace who routinely lets the key bullpen pieces relax and have a night off (except for setup/closer perhaps). Even if nominally these offseason choices for constructing the roster have worked out according to plan, I think they serve as an indictment of the plan itself, which was to accept greater than average injury risk and lower workload, in return for higher than average performance when healthy. I don't think it's worked, not in terms of excelling anyway. Bundy's been okay, Gray's been okay, and they represent the best results of the plan. Paddack and Mahle of course represent when the plan goes completely wrong. The "ups" don't balance out these "downs".
  21. ashbury
    Here's a way they are the same: both arrived because the FO had the alleged "luxury" of tanking the rest of a lost season by trading two remaining players of value. If the FO is dedicated to the "sustained success" they spoke of when they were brought in, in late 2016, such Fire Sales ought to be few and far between. So quibbling over whether any of the prospects so-obtained have been in the Twins' minor league system for "long enough" is a moot point in my book. I don't give them much if any development credit for filling the pitching pipeline™ that way. Making the best of a bad situation (as done in 2021) does not count as a Proof of Concept. Louie Varland, if he pans out like we hope, would be a very welcome step in the right direction, and definitely would count.
  22. ashbury
    You echo my thoughts, almost precisely. From one year ago.
  23. ashbury
  24. ashbury
    LOL.
  25. ashbury
    And yet in terms of WAR, which more resembles a counting stat than a rate stat, he still currently leads the team this season.
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