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ashbury

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Everything posted by ashbury

  1. ashbury
    Yes and no. 71 PA vs RHP, 10 PA vs LHP - Vazquez 29 PA vs RHP, 18 PA vs LHP - Jeffers Vazquez has borne the brunt more against righties, but as Stringer said, they just haven't faced that many lefties in all. Jeffers has faced more RHP than LHP, just not quite as extreme. But Vazquez hasn't done well against either handed pitcher (OPS .610 and .400 respectively), while Jeffers has exhibited good results so far against righties (OPS .918 and .600). Jeffers has capitalized. Vazquez has not. These are all small numbers to analyze, though.
  2. ashbury
    Based on the things you looked at I wondered if he was requiring too many pitches per batter faced, but at 3.93 he's running just about a league average this year, much as he's done in 2021-22. I think the manager is just being ultra cautious with his workload..
  3. ashbury
    The two bolded items tie in together, making me especially eager to agree with going back to normal rules for the 10th and 11th. If the offenses are inept, the extra innings might go even faster without the runner on second that starts things off. And if one of the offenses manages to scratch out a winning run by the regular rules, it just seems more organic.
  4. ashbury
    Remember, I was merely tapping the brakes on the subheading, "Bullpen is lights-out". An IBB to begin the 10th inning or later may be sound strategy. The Twins did that only 1 time in the 3 extra innings they played. The other four IBB remain black marks, in my book. Three innings in a row, starting in the 8th, the bullpen found itself with a runner on third, and the Twins issued an IBB to try to preserve the tie. Self-inflicted - a couple of leadoff walks and a couple of wild pitches were in the mix there. Without the runner on third, the IBB is unlikely in each case. Pagan's 11th inning was the closest to a clean inning, but Rocco apparently didn't think he was lights-out and had him walk Benintendi (again!) with two outs, to face the weaker bat in Hamilton, even (as the visiting team) knowing that if it worked (it did!) then Hamilton would be guaranteed to start on second base the next inning and we'd face the top of the lineup instead of getting a free out with Hamilton coming up to bat. I'm sure Rocco was thinking an inning ahead, and still felt this was the best move with Pagan. There was no way at the time to know the Twins would explode for 5 runs and make Hamilton irrelevant. The bullpen was in no way lights-out this game. Indeed, three innings in a row, the bullpen did well to not be walked-off (in good measure due to the Twins' quiet bats until the 12th). And that's all I'm saying. So kudos to those pitchers for keeping their cool and battling their tails off. Ultimately, they were good enough.
  5. ashbury
    The bullpen was NOT lights-out. Only Moran in the 12th didn't walk anybody, and a baserunner reached 3rd four out of five innings. This was a tightwire act, not a shutdown exhibition, and they were extremely fortunate to not get burned even once when the game was for the taking.
  6. ashbury
    I've never had high expectations, and every time I start to believe, he looks pretty hittable. Maybe he can take one further step to improve consistency from game to game, and thereby achieve his ceiling. Until then, I think of him as just another guy in the bullpen, nowhere close to a top gun or elite arm.
  7. ashbury
  8. ashbury
    3. 🏳️
  9. ashbury
    An imaginary point of view that when combined with the others becomes surprisingly complex.
  10. ashbury
    If you are referring to Bailey Ober among these two, he wasn't even a rookie last season. 20 games started in 2021 was his rookie season.
  11. ashbury
    Sonny Gray has given up 3 runs this year. Bailey Ober has given up 2.
  12. ashbury
    Sounds correct to me, unless he messed up some detail that I would mess up too. There is indeed a provision that short total stays do not count. Of course it's to be hoped that once he comes up, he'll never need to be optioned again, making it all moot.
  13. ashbury
    If he's ready anytime this season it will be testament to hard work and dedication, because he was limping noticeably in spring training.
  14. ashbury
    There was a lot of chaos in the nineteenth century, but once things stabilized with the advent of the American League in 1901 I think you are correct. The Braves moved from Boston to Milwaukee to Atlanta, so this will break the tie.
  15. ashbury
    Against a team like the Royals, yes. Other teams, depends on my mood. Mostly I'm just trying to bar as many injuries as possible. Not sure it's working.
  16. ashbury
    Twins sweep, barring injury.
  17. ashbury
    Not even any walks! Wonder if he's gone to a 3-ball count on anybody yet.
  18. ashbury
    Okay, so that's two. "Rarely used" and I forgot about the second, so thank you. Still doesn't mean the scorer can willy nilly award the W to the pitcher of his choice, most of the time. If an official scorer tries to do that even once, they'll stand to be fired. When the starter goes a strong 6 or 7, the bullpen coughs up the lead, but the team comes back to win, the starter still gets bupkis, even though we'd all prefer to award him the Win. A pitcher who is among the league leaders in Wins can hardly be a "bad" pitcher but I still prefer ERA or other measures to assess who is really good.
  19. ashbury
    Just to be clear, what you wish is for the rule book to give the scorer that discretion in more games. Currently the only time the scorer has discretion is when the starting pitcher goes less than 5 but leaves with a lead that is never relinquished - so the only "pitcher of record" when the lead is taken for good is that starter, but he's ineligible.
  20. ashbury
    For a last place team? Definitely. His 2020-22 more or less bore that out. Maybe for a .500 team, as his ceiling, if other parts of the team are clicking. He was very little factor in the Nationals' World Series team, 2019, their last good season. In 2017 the Nationals also had a very strong year with 97 wins - that coincided with Taylor's career year to date at the plate, and I'll submit that that looks like no coincidence at all. And I feel it necessary to repeat that, by saying any of this, I'm not trashing him as a player, and especially not in a backup role. I'm happy he's on the team and happy that he's pulling his weight during Buxton's absence from CF. He absolutely gets credit for 2017, it's just that it was a long time ago. Also if his OPS is trending back up to above-.800 like that one magical year, my opinion changes. He's at .743 at this writing and that is NOT the .700 ceiling I was discussing. Baseball is a game of remarkable balance and equilibrium and synergies - above .800 is a lot different than below .700, and MAT has literally never finished a season in-between those two numbers, so it's uncharted territory for him. He's had good months through the years - can he keep it up? We saw with Andrelton Simmons that saying "defense is key up the middle and any offense is icing on the cake" just leads to misery. Our point of disagreement is about team aspirations, not simply getting by (team, or player) in the majors.
  21. ashbury
    They're surely not just adding him to the 40-man, but also the major league roster. Is it stated who goes down? Moran, I assume. I'm not sure what success to expect from Stewart, but his good AAA stats are despite an astronomical .467 BA on balls put in play. Good thing he struck out so many!
  22. ashbury
    Going to see them this Saturday. Maybe I'll bring them good luck that game and put them on a 36-win pace.
  23. ashbury
    The cool spring temps had nothing to do with the Yankees' difficulty on offense. That is an excuse we reserve for ourselves.
  24. ashbury
    That's where averages can sometimes fool you. He's got one of those weird careers where all but one of his seasons (until this year) have been below his career average. 2017's OPS of .806 looks like a blip now. On the other hand all his other seasons have been remarkably consistent, in the .638-.676 range. Now, .020 is not very much variation so .700 isn't "unreasonable". Players oscillate by that much, routinely. I'm just pointing out the historical record. The last time he was above .700, he was 26 years old. He's 32 now. That's a lot of track record to overcome, by this point. And .700 really isn't very good, no matter how stellar the defense is, so if that's what he achieves, my main view on him doesn't change anyway. "M.A.T. can't OPS .700" isn't some hill I would want to die on, because it doesn't matter if he does it. He's a desirable backup and he will have his moments over the course of a season.
  25. ashbury
    How do you propose to do that? He has 0 minor league options remaining.
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