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ashbury

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Everything posted by ashbury

  1. ashbury
    That's where you misunderstand analytics*. Analytics is breaking down a problem into the smaller components until you feel you understand the problem better. Often it's with numbers. Here, it's really not, despite the graphical approach to communicate it. "Better" versus "worse" - that can be analytics. * OK, my definition of it.
  2. ashbury
    Mahle's morale looks pretty good, all things considered.
  3. ashbury
    Mahle's a reliever/closer?
  4. ashbury
    I expect we all plan to do the same.
  5. ashbury
    I love the cat-that-ate-the-canary look on Buxton's face after he scores on the steal of home "sacrifice" fly.
  6. ashbury
    Now after two wins, shouldn't it be 324-0?
  7. ashbury
    Interesting graph that seems to rate Carlos higher in each of the 3 categories than Nelson. I wouldn't have imagined that. Does any player anywhere come to mind that exceeds Carlos? Lots that could be discussed, so I will try limiting myself to just one typical case. Talented rookie player X is mired in a slump and goes to a player he considers a leader, and moans, "I'm 1-for-27, and I don't know what to do." He's not looking for batting tips, indeed he doesn't know what he's looking for. Does Player X go to Buxton? To Cruz? To Donaldson? To Correa? I'm thinking it would be Cruz. And yet I'm not sure which of the three dimensions this fits - you kind of ruled out Pragmatic when you specifically mentioned (not) "emotional work", and I don't quite see where a leader's charisma is the key here, nor the vague idea of shared ideology. It's extremely possible that the right leader gets this kid going, so I don't think it's a trivial example. Okay, one more comment. I often bang the "analytics" drum here, and I want to mention that I see this approach as another excellent instance of baseball analytics. Not everything can be measured in numbers, and different people might rate a player vastly differently on any one of these dimensions. Yet, to make decisions, a front office has to start somewhere, and this analytic approach feels very right to me, even if the key is whether it's implemented wisely or not.
  8. ashbury
    Sounds like a guy who takes his job seriously.
  9. ashbury
    Wait until you see Luis Arraez wearing a real Marlins cap - you won't be sure he isn't back with us, but that would involve wearing the crazy Twins cap that looks like a Marlins cap, but maybe that means he's with the Marlins after all, and so on, and so on, into an infinite regression.
  10. ashbury
    Betteridge's law of headlines, in action.
  11. ashbury
    I was being tongue in cheek and you are replying with literalism. So let me be literal. The guy you want as your long reliever would be starting, in today's game. You are talking about winning more games by using your long relief strategy - otherwise why bother. So you're not talking about a random arm to soak up garbage innings - if all you care about is a reliever pitching 3 innings and giving up another run or two like most pitchers will on average, then few if any additional wins will be the result because your team is already in a hole, by the very nature of needing to bring in the long reliever. No, you implicitly want a guy who will put up zeroes for 3 innings, and keep his team in the game when the day's starter has already not given a quality start. Guys who can shut the other team down for 3 innings are almost certainly capable of going 4 or 5 or 6 and delivering at least quality production. And we know guys like that are in short supply. IMO you're not following through on the scenarios where your desired long reliever would make an actual difference in the season. The guy you say you want as your long reliever would be starting.
  12. ashbury
    That link also provided links to two different ways of providing a side-by-side comparison, of real-time versus edited. This critical strikeout in the final inning is not improved (from the fan's perspective) by lengthening the time between pitches, using the edited version as a baseline. There was plenty of time to anticipate and ponder. If I weren't already in favor of enforcing the clock, I think this comparison would have won me over. Even if I didn't personally care about games going 3.5 hours and longer, I would have to concede that no entertainment value is being sacrificed with the pitch clock enforcement, and if it's making someone else happier to be able to head home before 10 pm most nights, I'd be now on board. I'll say again: absolutely nothing is lost by the still rather generous limit now imposed on pure dilly-dallying in the name of players collecting their thoughts. The action is still all there, and it's only the dead time for the fan that is missing. I always give Scott Boras a careful hearing when he weighs in on a topic because he's a student of the game, even if biased in certain obvious ways, but in this case I have to disagree with him - if performance by the players is slightly less than optimal, it affects batter and pitcher essentially equally, and the public who foots the bill is the beneficiary. Long overdue and I'm thrilled with the early returns.
  13. ashbury
    Great? Your genealogy may be correct but the terminology is prone to misunderstanding.
  14. ashbury
    There's a word for pitchers who can "easily" go 3 innings. "Starter."
  15. ashbury
    I'm holding my breath until official lineups are announced Saturday.
  16. ashbury
    I agree that Buxton is the key to this team, but if he can't play CF we're getting only part of his value. If he's manning CF yesterday then DH is open, which means Taylor isn't in the lineup (he's no DH and unlike Buxton is of value only when playing defense). Who among the 4 right-handed benchwarmers would have been at DH against the righty? None of them, assuming Buxton could be counted on to play defense - instead Willi Castro would not have made the team, and one of the lefty bat-first youngsters, either Wallner or Julien, could have come north and been in the lineup on Opening Day. Even though relying on unproven rookies is a risk, I have to like either one's offense better than when Taylor is in the lineup of necessity and against a righty. And Buxton not playing defense? That ungainly route to third base on his textbook triple was a chilling reminder that playing outfield isn't even where Buxton has the majority risk of injury - he was risking both his knee and his hip on that one. Unless the medical staff can offer a better explanation, if Buxton is capable of trying to leg out a triple when the game depends on it, he can play CF for me.
  17. ashbury
    Duran walked a guy in the ninth yesterday. The wheels are starting to come off. Shane better get ready for disappointment.
  18. ashbury
    It is urgent to get Emilio off the roster, just to eliminate the dad jokes he inspires.
  19. ashbury
    Ah, okay. I did completely misread you. Yeah, if you counted correctly then there are some changes a-comin'.
  20. ashbury
    Who's angry? It's not as though the Twins won 17-0. There are things to discuss.
  21. ashbury
    I'm on board with several others who have already posted. 93 wins, division title, at least one playoff series win. Barring injuries.
  22. ashbury
    I'm very happy he's on the roster. But the less he plays, the better I expect our Twins will do. If we look back at 2023 as him being the starting CF, look out.
  23. ashbury
    By "cut" I assume you mean sent to minor league teams. The Twins' page shows the full 40-man roster, and indicates who among them are already assigned to the minors, or are on one of the injured lists. I count 13 pitchers and 13 position players not marked in these ways, so they are down to the 26 (not 28) man active roster, and no more cuts are needed. LaMarre, as just one example, is not anywhere on this list because he's not on the 40-man. He's a pure minor league signing, and can't be added to the major league team unless room is made for him on the 40-man first.
  24. ashbury
    On mlb.tv I am accustomed to using the 10-second replay for interesting plays or pitches I want to review. I did that a couple of times today and missed the next pitch, which I would have to replay, lather-rinse-repeat. This is, I hasten to add, a good thing.
  25. ashbury
    That was a triple for Buxton as soon as the ball evaded the fielder's grasp, but I wish he could've slid into the base without that right foot banging down on the basepath a good 4 feet away from the destination.
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