tony&rodney

Twins say no.

Nobody will trade for Ray unless Seattle adds a significant player, which they currently do not have. Kelenic was that guy. Ray is due $74M. Sonny Gray is a better choice and that is mol what he signed for with St. Louis. Jordan Montgomery will want the same contract. Thus, why trade for Ray, a guy who is a bit iffy and actually more expensive when one considers that Robbie will only be ready after the All Star Game next summer. 2.4 years for $74 million is expensive. But, what do I know? Perhaps Seattle throws in Emerson Hancock and the recently acquired Cole Phillips with Ray to a team for a signed baseball. Then Seattle can sign Snell and Yamamoto.

Paddack could be totally solid for 100 innings and he may take the ball as a starting pitcher for around 17 games. Expecting anything more doesn't seem realistic. I'm feeling positive about Chris Paddack.

Kelenic was a type (high Ks) the Mariners had said they were moving away from this offseason. Atlanta needed some pitching (Marco) and think they can fix Kelenic. White is attached because the return is low with Atlanta taking on salary. Seattle is clearly clearing salary for a bigger deal. They are not going to go into 2024 with a roster under $120M. I would think that the Mariners have several ideas percolating and may be attempting to unload Robbie Ray as well. Guys like Gurriel Jr., Tim Anderson on a rebound, and Yamamoto would fit neatly into their team.

Time for the offense to take a turn. I'm feeling pretty good about the possibilities for the Twins offense swinging a good stick on a consistent basis throughout the year. The pitching will be hard pressed to repeat their team statistics. The Twins have some good guys right now but need a push from a notable arm (or two). Chris Paddack could be good and if he can throw 110 innings of 4.00 ERA, that would be huge. Louie Varland is an unknown. He could pitch 180 innings of 4.10 ERA ball to pick up the team but he is also unpredictable. No doubt, the Twins are hanging right now with a real need to improve their starting staff. Perhaps Ohtani signs and everyone gets to work filling in their rosters.

Aaron Sabato.

Yup, I believe this is the conundrum for Falvey. He has to give up some really important guys to get what he wants or it doesn't happen. That, and he needs to outbid the competition. I have zero idea what Yamamoto offers other than what I have read. I don't believe the Twins bothered to put in a call, although I have no idea. It sure seems like a gamble on him, if the reports of his potential are true, would solve a host of concerns for the Twins. Then again, here we go ... back to the budget. A budget of $120-125M puts a real squeeze on any move. A budget of $140M allows for a player. So it goes in Twinsland.

The Mariners are a good trading partner for the Twins, but the Twins aren't necessarily a good trading partner for the Mariners. Seattle has guys like Kirby and Gilbert to drool over, but Seattle is only going to listen if the offers begin with Lewis, Lee, or Julien. Additionally, there are a number of teams who could offer Seattle quite a bit, starting with Tampa Bay.

I, for one, appreciate your dedication to your idea of acquiring Devin Williams from Milwaukee. We can never be sure of whether Milwaukee is interested in moving on from their closer or what the Brewers would want in return for Williams if the club was open to a trade. That said, I would not trade David Festa for Devin Williams, straight up. Emmanuel Rodriguez is off the table unless we are talking Logan Gilbert and Seattle is not looking for prospects. Em-Rod isn't appreciably behind Royce Lewis and Brooks Lee in value (ignore BTV). Trades are difficult and everyone has ideas for improving their team. The trick is to guess how each team benefits, and that is why the trade of Arraez worked, despite the firestorm of anger it initially created here on Twins Daily. Others, may have different thoughts on your proposal which you have so patiently put forth on a daily basis. This is mine.

A ton of people have thought that the Twins could benefit with Royce Lewis playing in the outfield. There are, however, people who are involved directly in that decision who have other thoughts. These include all of Falvey, Baldelli, Boras, and Lewis. One reality is that Royce Lewis has only had a couple of dozen occasions to play outfield as a baseball player and despite having good speed he was always noted as looking uncomfortable on the grass. Coaches and others all suggested he could develop and become a good outfielder and Lewis himself felt he was progressing as a centerfielder. Unfortunately, his two injuries changed some thoughts on using Lewis as an outfielder. I do not believe that an athlete like Lewis is more likely to get injured in the outfield, but those decisions are made by someone else. For now, I'm believing the guys who say he is an infielder now and in the future. Things could always change .... Mookie Betts was a starting infielder as often as Kyle Farmer last season.

The center of all discussions, regarding the offensive side of the Twins team, seems to always revolve around Buxton. Most people also feel that the Twins need a plan to cover for has been an inevitable injury. Having a guy like Austin Martin as the backup option is risky but one i can accept given the cost of the other iffy options. My main concern is how Byron returns if healthy. Last season Buxton obviously battled some significant challenges with leg issues which resulted in a dramatic shift in his swing. Buxton will hopefully begin his settling back into baseball activities with full health because he will need to completely rebuild his swing and approach at the plate. This can be accomplished with close supervision and disciplined work habits in the cage and on the field. I am optimistic about a return of the talent Buxton has flashed at moments during his career. I also hope that his preparation for 2024 includes a focus on contact with his bat. Where once that was ridiculed or marked down, we have plenty of knowledge/evidence that Buxton has the bat speed and strength to punish the baseball. His desperate attempt to contribute last year included full on wild hacks whose only goal seemed to be reaching notable lengths on home runs. If you have no base for your swing and cannot run, the big swing is a consequence. Full health allows for a return to fundamental practices and this could push Buxton back to an All Star status. That would be sweet.

The Twins signed Chris Paddack to a three year contract after he was injured, which was shortly after he arrived via trade. I believe I stated that Paddack is being counted on next season to provide 100-120 innings if everything goes perfectly. I do not believe Paddack has a higher ceiling than Kenta Maeda. Paddack has more velocity on his fastball, but it is quite a stretch to see Paddack having a career as effective as the one achieved by Kenta Maeda. To be clear, Chris Paddack can still have a fine career and I hope he blows by any and all markers already achieved by Maeda. This is, however, a hope for the future.

Sadly, he may have already been voted off the island by his peers in addition the PR departments.

Young guys like Julien, Wallner, and Lewis are risky, but they have each shown enough to deserve playing time. Prospects such as Brooks Lee and Austin Martin are looking close to ready and should make a positive contribution this coming season. If the Twins can hold their depth, I can see an improved offense. Losing Solano is tough but there are enough guys to fill for him. a major key, that many worry about, is how do Kirilloff and Miranda bounce back from shoulder hurts. I agree that the depth will look differently but I also expect it to be pretty good. A couple of guys i like as players to fill positions around the field on occasion are Anthony Pratto and Michael Helman. These players are a little older, very good in the field and on the bases and provide some pop. They do need to be added back into the minor leagues before another organization pilfers them. I see a higher upside for the depth but a lower floor is also a risk.

Chris Paddack's season will be considered successful if he pitches 100 innings. Louie Varland will only be restricted by how often he can pitch 5-8 innings and hold the other team to 3 runs (pitch effectively). The offense needs to step forward and score runs on a consistent basis all year in 2024 because we should not expect the pitching to carry the team to the same extent as in 2023. I'm fine with the current roster but still see opportunities for trades. Milwaukee might be a decent trade partner. Burnes is the guy whose name is most often the lead and he would be a TOR guy. Another player, perhaps unobtainable, is Jeferson Quero. Maybe the Twins throw out a risky proposition of trading Joe Ryan, Jorge Polanco, and Josh Winder for Corbin Burnes and Jeferson Quero. I'm not sure either team likes this challenge idea though. It all comes down to how the Twins see their young MLB players and top prospects fitting together this year and going forward. Maybe a simple addition of Michael Wacha works but I believe he will get a pretty decent multi-year contract.

The thing I did not like about the Mahle trade was that he was already being watched for shoulder problems, which when serious are mostly the end for a pitcher. Mahle went down in the spring with an elbow problem (TJ) but the shoulder issue was still not totally settled. The other thing that bothered me about that trade was giving up CES. Normally I want to stay away from dudes who are not multi-athletic and fast, but I couldn't help but tune into (milb.com) as many Cedar Rapids and Wichita games as possible when CES was batting. He just is such a good hitter and learned so quickly. Logan Gilbert is a free agent after the 2027 season, so there are four seasons left of contract control. I will spare all of the details - he is very good. Kirby is rated higher but I prefer Gilbert. I'm real big on all of Lewis, Julien, and Lee. I'm wondering what is a possibility for acquiring Gilbert. He may not be available but Seattle has one guy pestering them because he wants to play in Seattle (Snell) and Seattle has their eyes on another guy, Yamamoto. There is a chance to obtain a Seattle guy. What is the cost? If the Twins cannot sign a free agent like Yamamoto, which apparently they won't, a trade is their next avenue. I am more bullish on Louie Varland David Festa than most, but feel the Twins need a pitcher to replace Sonny Gray.

Correa and the team budget are not problems. The Twins need to have an idea of their roster priorities and adjust accordingly. As far as the future, things are looking good. The Twins have a decent group of young players and a full system of prospects working for an opportunity. The farm is rated more or less in the middle of all of baseball which means there are plenty of potential athletes who can be developed.

The Price for #5/6 starters and reclamation projects has been pretty much set at $12-13 million. Wacha might be a nice get as ould Giolito, but they will be pricier than the floor stated above. I'm ok with a gamble on our guys but a trade seems necessary at some point. Varland could be the guy to fill innings but Paddack should be looked at as a 100-120 innings at max guy. A signing of Hoskins seems to rich but perhaps a 3/$45M deal can be managed for Gurriel Jr. The Twins have some difficult decisions to make on personell. Lewis, Lee, Julien, Farmer, Polanco, Martin is a pile for two positions. There will be opportunities for gamble trades. Milwaukee is in a tenuous position with their team. Signing Jackson Chourio is part gamble and part public relations as they attempt to maintain their competitive position in the face of some odds: losing Woodruff and having tough calls to make on Adames and Burnes. Minnesota is going to wait on any deals. Jose Miranda seemed like a solid guy to play 150+ games every year and rake, despite a weak glove. His shoulder injury and the travails of Royce Lewis might curb the enthusiasm needed to jump with both feet into a Chourio type signing. I like your example of Emmanuel Rodriguez. He will give the Twins a good idea of his ability to adjust this coming summer. It seems like he can just play smash ball with that super quick wand whenever he makes the decision to focus, yet the competition and need to stay locked in at the plate grows dramatically in AA & AAA. Who knows what he is up to this winter? I like the Twins team as is but the team as it stands cannot suffer injuries to the pitching staff which wakes Falvey up at 3am.

The Trib is just .... sad.

Your argument sounds reasonable and Seattle might want Lewis or a player like Jax or Kepler added to Lee. I don't know what Seattle is thinking. The comparison of Colson Montgomery and the White Sox doesn't make sense though because the Twins are not rebuilding in any fashion, have no position for the kid any time soon, he is not as good as Brooks Lee, and the Twins are in search for a strong starting pitcher which more or less forces them to consider all of their options right now. Meanwhile, the White Sox suck but have added impressively by trading away players. They will be on the rise in a couple of years. The entire discussion of how the Twins can possibly add a pitcher is at the very least interesting. Great thoughts all around and yes it would be terrific to see all of Lee, Lewis, and Julien suit up as Twins in All Star games. The only thing we can be sure of .... you just never know.

Kirilloff? Kepler? Polanco? Lewis? Do you think Seattle has any interest in any Twin? I commented elsewhere that Tim Anderson would be a good pickup for the Mariners.

You could be correct. My assessments are based on a number of reviews, but mostly on observations having seen him play. To be clear though, I have also said on numerous occasions that I believe that Brooks Lee will be a successful MLB player. This is not something I would throw around loosely about all highly rated prospects. The post postulates that the Twins might have a chance to improve their team substantially by trading Brooks Lee. It is predictably controversial as would be a similar post substituting Royce Lewis for Lee. These are good conversations to have and there isn't any reason for people to get too strident in their beliefs because it is Falvey and the squad who make these calls.

The challenge system is good because it is really quick - less than 10 seconds. Replays can take up to 10 minutes.

Great post Hunter. After some discussions yesterday about my opposition to strict adherence to BTV (an interesting site to use with a grain of salt), I noticed that were several huge leaps or depreciations in the values. This got me to thinking about writing up a post about Royce Lewis. Reading this stream, I've decided to put that rough draft post in the trash because everything here applies to Lewis pretty much. This post and the discussions are the entire crux of a situation the Twins face this offseason. The AL Central should be in hand barring a collapse, but small tweaks can be made to move the Twins into the top ten teams in baseball. We all like Lee, Lewis, etc. Not all of the players fit. Pitching is always the main currency to winning. I like the rotation of Lopez, Ryan, Ober, Varland, and Paddack, but a clear upgrade would make a difference. I disagree that Seattle will never consider trading Kirby or Gilbert, but either will cost. BTW, for those who love BTV, Lewis is worth quite a bit more than Gilbert. These are the conversations being hashed out in a conference room at Target Field. Can Lewis play 2B? Lee is a little slow and has always been seen as a third baseman. I saw a few comments that suggested that Lee will be better than Correa by as early as next year and surely by 2025. Look at Correa's career and it is crazy to expect that. I'm very high on all of Lewis, Lee, and Julien. Unlike some, I can see any one of the three having a clearly better career than the other two without eliminating or favoring one. Falvey makes the big bucks and gets to make these calls and then speak promotionally afterwards. I'm leaving all worries to him and just hope the Twins are a better team and more exciting to watch in 2024.

I hope the Twins (Falvey & squad) put ideas and proposals out to any number of teams in search of potentially mutually beneficial transactions. All of Seattle, Miami, Milwaukee, San Diego, and the Dodgers among others need to be entertained at cocktail hours. I hope the Twins avoid losing anyone in the Rule 5 Draft and bring back all of Keirsey Jr., Pratto, Helman, and Bechtold. Minor league depth is important and not very costly. All four of those guys could be signed in total for less than Willi Castro (who I like a ton).