tony&rodney

Thank you. That was nice of you. Happy Thanksgiving. After coaching and playing for three plus decades, I believe that the players drive the game of baseball. In basketball, a coach has far more effect on the play. I really do appreciate the posts. They take thought, research, and time. About twenty years ago i wrote sometimes for a friend's blog (Phillies). The comments on Twins Daily are mostly decent. We all have opinions and sometimes I think people see differences as an attack on their knowledge. In this post (Cortes) as in others, my initial thoughts are to look at both sides of a deal. Still, there are countless times my thinking is jumbled and way off base. It is easier to make judgments when one can see a player on numerous occasions live. Watching fielding drills, one can discern weaknesses and strengths. Lastly, sometimes we are too hard on athletes. Yes, they get paid well ,,,, now. I can remember when Dave Boswell painted garages to make a little money. There are a pile of guys waiting to take away your job in baseball and the preparation to remain relevant is tough. Skill, luck, and excellence are elusive. Young guys get bowled over on occasions and are unprepared for reactions from the public. MLB does a pretty good job of educating today.

This was already explained. Offseason versus trade deadline deals. Articles are sepaerate.

Well, you sure did a strong job of presenting Cortes as a possibility worth a conversation with the Yankees. I would think that the Yanks will be listening for a sweet deal on the one hand but holding him on the other hand. New York has Cole and are hopeful that Rodon rebounds effectively and that is about it. Both King and Schmidt are best as #5/6 starting pitchers, with King mostly having been used in relief. If Cortes has fully healed, the Yankees need him. If the Yanks are putting his name out there, it seems odd considering how desperate they are for pitching. The writeup is fine as is the idea of finding a hidden gem. Maybe we can trade Dobnak for Cortes. A common practice, seemingly, is to link the success of pitchers to a pitching coach or team philosophy. I'm more inclined to credit the athlete for 96% of their success. Pablo Lopez has always been a huge talent. His consistency, pitch selection, maturation, and weight were challenges. Lopez began to put that all together several years ago and the Twins benefited from having a guy that Miami coveted (Luis Arraez). Bingo, Miami is happy and the Twins get a guy they needed. Talent has to develop and injuries to pitchers are a constant. If Cortes has those skills the Yankees will not trade him for less than a robbery. I appreciate the work and effort that is put into writing these posts. Some good conversations develop in the string and all opinions and thoughts are worth reading and thinking about. Domingo German pitched a perfect game last summer and was released in early November. So many names out there.

Yah, I see all that and agree with you. Actually, I don't know exactly why I feel that Julien will get better and better despite the challenges. I liked watching his at bats as much as I enjoyed watching Luis Arraez hit. They are quite different, but both are a pain in the ass for pitchers. As a former pitcher I see Julien as a pest, one who can also hurt you with the long ball. We never know how the Twins will shake things out or whether a player can meet their potential. It's all part of the fun and frustration.

Always liked him, but the injuries.... Last summer he was supposedly healthy but topped out at 85 on the gun and was a couple below that usually. That was his fastball. Hard to understand what happened. i think he gets released and then the Twins could take a look. His spiral was confusing. Sixto, like Cabrera, is out of options. Cabrera will be with the MLB team if not traded. Sanchez will be dropped and sign a minor league deal. The reason I suggested a Larnach and Winder trade for Cabrera is because I think all three need a fresh start. Then again, maybe that is way off.

I would like both to be on the team next year. Then again, if the Twins can strengthen their team via trades, do it. Julien seems to be a polarizing player; some like him and others are down on him. Those who have etched within their brains his early stumbles in the field and/or threw their slippers at the Tv whenever he took a strike may have missed what was a pretty good season from a rather raw and inexperienced player. Julien runs like he is nursing a hamstring injury, which he actually had late in the season. His haircut and goofy look with the hat are notable. It would be interesting to hear what other organizations think about Julien. Seems pretty universal that fans are interested in seeing the Twins complete a trade and teams usually try to use areas of depth to acquire needs.

We know that Jorge Polanco and Max Kepler are good and in demand and true professional guys. Their past performances and friendly contracts make them in demand from many teams. The variables are their injuries, risk of future performance, and proximity to free agency. Some don't believe in these two Twins but I'm thinking the industry does. What do we know about Alek Manoah? In 2022, Manoah was really good. Then last year ...... he blew up. The Blue Jays tried pretty much everything and eventually sent him back to rookie ball where he imploded. Nobody seems to know what happened. The only report is that there was friction between Manoah and management. I have no idea based on looking over his stats and reading a half dozen articles whether Manoah is toast or just took a year off. I'll bet that nobody who has a chance of making a contribution to the Twins in 2024 will be sent to Toronto for him. The Sonny Gray trade was wonderful for the Twins. Remember that the Reds were getting rid of salaries and also felt that Gray was on the downside of his career. Gray had just had a 4.19 ERA in 2021 after a 3.70 ERA in 2020, which was preceded by a 2.70 ERA in 2019. Gray's salary was rising and the Reds were willing to trade Sonny for a hotshot prospect. This was a situation where the Twins managed to get in at the right time. So maybe a guy like Nick Gordon but a trade for Manoah would surprise me, even though this is a chance that could be a big plus. One thing is that Falvey and others have some notion of how Manoah fits in the clubhouse.

I agree with you. It could be possible to work with Miami as well.

Fangraphs sets Burnes at $15.1 M and BaseballProspectus predicts him for $16 M. I don't know if that makes a difference for you. My belief is that the salary fits into the budget, especially if the Twins reduce through trade. The Brewers will want a strong package that starts with an equivalent to a first round draft pick to offset the return for a qualified offer. I have been interested in thinking of how to obtain Burnes from the beginning. I just don't know what the Brewers will see as a minimum return. My view of prospects differs somewhat from others. My focus is on guys with a huge upside and clear superior athleticism. Thus, I'm not very open to trading David Festa. I'm also not too open on Emmanuel Rodriguez. Perhaps either tips the balance for George Kirby but Seattle is not looking for prospects for next year or thereafter as main pieces in a trade. Despite not having seen Walker Jenkins play, I cannot see any way the Twins would even trade him straight up for anyone. The Twins should make efforts to see if they can get together with the Marlins for a mutually beneficial trade. This seems very possible.

Solid #5/6 starting pitchers are in demand. What does this do for Giolito?

I think you meant to reverse this. Mahle will be ready in mid 2025. Maeda is good right now. Mahle would need to sign a 3 year deal, similar to what Chris Paddack has: $Y1=1M, Y2=$3M, and $Y3 = $8M. Caveat - remember that Mahle went down with a bum shoulder before he tore his elbow last spring.

Nick, excellent write-up as usual. My reactions: 1. Burnes is a decent target but i fear the cost. The package of Polanco plus Festa might not be enough for Milwaukee but I'm not trading Festa either. If i had to pick one position player and one pitcher to protect among prospects, it is Jenkins and Festa. 2. The information came out on both budget and Moran after this exercise. Soto makes no sense unless the budget reaches $160 million, and even then it is a stretch. Same with Glasnow. Losing Moran was a blow as he has promise and held value before the news of his elbow tear. 3. Keller is who the Pirates need right now, especially after news of Oviedo going down. Pittsburgh is unlikely to listen on pitchers. This is true for Cincinnati as well. 4. Seattle is a darling object for teams looking to add pitching. The cost could be high. Polanco and Kepler have relatively inexpensive contracts. They would be the top choice (Polanco) or one of the top (Kepler) players in their positions. Adding a couple of guys like Tanner Schobel to them might bring back Bryce Miller. Hancock has been lauded but has had some trouble getting his career moving. Is Hancock an improvement over Festa? I wonder what any of Julien, Lee or Lewis returns? 5. We don't know how either the Twins or other teams value players. Trading Polanco and Kepler may severely weaken the Twins making our speculations moot. The board clearly believes that a trade is the expected path to acquire a strong pitcher. Guys like Giolito and Severino would be possible additions later in the offseason perhaps. Can the Twins just stand pat and play the hand they have right now? I guess that is another article.

Mauer should be elected on the first ballot. I'm not sure that the writers understand how difficult being a catcher is and it is has only become more challenging in the 21st century due to the reams of information.

We actually don't know if the Twins are even open to trading any of their top prospects, or any of Polanco, Kepler, Julien, Lewis, or Wallner. Seattle has the arms that interest many teams and it looks like they will dictate the terms if they are willing to make a trade of any of Kirby, Gilbert, Miller, or Woo. There are a couple of guys to sign .... Giolito, Severino .... but with demand so high these guys can/might push for 2-4 years at $10-18 M per year. So while Giolito would be an arm worth bringing in on a prove it one year deal at around $15M, Giolito may be a little shook by how his year ended and be seeking a longer term deal with guaranteed money. If he would take a one year deal, that could work out for the Twins.

Well, I hope you gathered that I find both Keller and Gilbert as good options. The budget and ask would likely sink a trade for Burnes. Pittsburgh management stated that they will be adding pitching. Since then the news has come out that Johan Oviedo needs TJ. I don't think they trade Keller. Seattle is the team to talk with first. The price for one of their pitchers will be high, very high and I'm all in on a trade for any one of Kirby, Gilbert, Miller, or Woo. Miami is a possibility too. Edward Cabrera is out of options and has struggled some with his control. Maybe he is not available and maybe the Twins don't want him either. Cabrera is a guy I would gamble on. I'm not keen on either Manoah or Blackburn.

Relatively fair comparison. Jazz is still developing as a player and Zac Gallen is a fine pitcher. Due to SP demand right now, the Twins might need to add a player like Kepler.

Yah, I found that interesting. Still, no reason to sign a reliever just to spend. Either the Twins use what is available now or find a guy or two to add. I don't know who to target for the bullpen though.

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2023/11/pirates-rumors-johan-oviedo-tommy-john-surgery-elbow-injury.html Oviedo may be getting Tommy John soon. All of LAA, PIT, and CIN have stated a desire to add pitching. Each club has specifically said they are not dealing their arms but looking to add. There are tough roads to traverse towards finding pitching. Seattle is about the only team right now and the price will be high. The payment will hurt to any team wanting to acquire pitching. Louie Varland is definitely a work in progress. There is nothing finished about his game but he is still better than most any of the other #5 starting pitchers out there in MLB. Consider that Lance Lynn received more than $10 million and one can see it will be difficult to acquire an arm worth talking about.

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2023/11/braves-sign-reynaldo-lopez.html The cost of a relief pitcher is dear.

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2023/11/cardinals-sign-lance-lynn.html View full rumor

Only time will settle any debates about whether Lee or Julien are more suitable for future Twins teams. I would expect that this conversation is going on within the Twins front office. There are good arguments to be made in favor of both players. Who knows maybe the Twins keep both ... and trade Lewis (gulp).

I'm not trading Festa or Kepler for Manoah. Perhaps the price is high but I just say no for either much less both. Let some other team benefit from a rebound from Manoah. I believe Milwaukee might ask for more and I'm not sure the Twins budget works for Burnes. Keller is a good pitcher and that trade seems fair, although I am reticent to trade Wallner. Blackburn? The Twins should shoot higher. You are correct that he could fit in the back of the rotation. The trade favors the Twins seemingly. The trade for Gilbert is interesting. Seattle might be thinking of a different combination of players.

The key is an unknown. Who or what does Seattle want? St. Louis wants a Seattle pitcher but the only guy that interests the Mariners is Jordan Walker. Tough deal. The Twins are in a place where they can play it safe or take a shot. Like last offseason, any high stakes deal will raise eyebrows. I do believe that the price will remain high and possibly even go higher as free agents sign. If a trade is going to happen, earlier is better.

This is the standard comment for most minor league centerfielders who have body types that trend towards bigger. The same comment was made years ago about Mike Trout. Corbin Carroll was raved about but gets moved to a corner for Alek Thomas. All teams use their best guy in center, but not all are equal gloves. Buxton/Kiermaier/Taylor and a few others are exceptional centerfielders. I would guess that Emmanuel can play the position as well as any or all of Gallo, Kepler, Castro, Gordon, and Martin. One thing to keep in mind is that there is a real learning curve for outfielders when they arrive to The Show. The stadiums are bigger and the wind flows along with the lights and crowds take a little time to learn. Once a player gets comfortable the superior lighting and fields actually help them as opposed to some of the conditions faced in the minor leagues. Either way, E-Rod has some learning to experience and the maturation process is important. 2024 is a big year for him because the competition and expertise at both AA and AAA will challenge his physical and mental progression.