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tony&rodney

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Everything posted by tony&rodney

  1. tony&rodney
    Injuries vary from year to year and from team to team. The Twins had some players go on the IL: March - Celestino, Polanco, Winder, Henriquez, Kirilloff April - Kepler, Gallo, Farmer, Maeda May - Mahle, Thielbar, Kepler, Alcala, Polanco, Larnach, Gordon June - Gallo, Sands, Buxton, Thielbar, Polanco, De Leon, Stewart July - Lewis, Miranda, Buxton, Kirilloff August - Ryan, Buxton, Castro, Ortega September - Taylor, Gallo, Correa, Lewis, Moran, Keuchal Plenty of teams had more injuries and this list does not differentiate 10,15,60 day lists. The pitchers were relatively healthy. Missing pitchers like Ryan Mahle, Thielbar, Stewart, Alcala, and Winder does weaken the staff. Position players like Kirilloff, Miranda, Polanco, Lewis, Farmer, Correa, Kepler, Taylor, and Buxton missed enough time to weaken the lineup. Although the Twins began 2023 with strong depth and receieved help from the minor league call-ups, I disagree that the team didn't suffer any notable absence from players due to injury. I have followed Fangraphs for a long time but they are a national outfit and have huge holes in their knowledge of many smaller market organizations. The reliance on data is entertaining but never tells a complete picture. In some ways, the sophistication of the plethora of numbers still results in predictions and writing that mirrors the reports from Baseball Digest, The Sporting News, Sports Illustrated, and others from decades long past; same same but different. It is all good fun but the season plays out in unpredictable fashions.
  2. tony&rodney
    I am confused why there is a conversation about Correa's contract and whether or not to trade him. He has a no trade deal. The contract has been in force for a year and has five years left before options are considered. It is in the past and there is nothing to be done about it. The Correa deal is part of how the Pohlad's have put the team together. The Pohlads signed Joe Mauer to a contract once upon a time and made a ton of money off of that deal. Looking backwards is rather pointless. Right now, it appears the Twins are being very cautious given the collapse of their media monies. Despite many people suggesting that it should not be a big deal and that something else will replace it, the Pohlad's have determined otherwise and are tightening up the roster budget at this time. Again, it just is the way it is. Replaying events from the past doesn't change them. If you feel the Twins need a pitcher now, make a realistic suggestion for a means of acquiring that guy. The contracts to question are the ones that have not been finished yet. For example, I believe it is not a good time, in consideration of the financial uncertainties right now, for the Twins to sign any large long term contracts. Any significant trades will need to come at the expense of losing one or more of our favored young players. Perhaps the time to trade is not now if the team and/or fans are unwilling to lose a major guy(s).
  3. tony&rodney
    ZIPS is highly respected and frequently used by folks in their analysis of teams and players. Sadly, it does nothing for me and I have followed it from the beginning. Cannot ever get my head around its usefulness. We already know that poor teams face longer odds and stacked rosters project to win more games. We also know that tweener teams, like the Twins, could win somewhere from 80+ to 90+ games. Such is life.
  4. tony&rodney
    Would you trade Pablo Lopez for Lee? Julien? What kind of deal would work using all players in the Twins system to trade for Lopez? Every team wants more pitching.
  5. tony&rodney
    Interesting thought. I will take the under at 120 innings for Paddack if he has perfect health. Do you think the Twins will use Matt Canterino as a starter for 125+ innings. This seems dubious at best. Hopefully he is healthy and gets some time in relief for the Twins. Ober is a weird dude. He hasn't had arm issues and often looks like he could throw all day. His issues are command in the strike zone. Ryan has a rubber arm. Hopefully he avoids leg injuries.
  6. tony&rodney
    I'm hoping Louie is the #4 pitcher. Varland has thrown 150 innings each of the last two years. He will not have any restrictions. I put Paddack at #5 because he is coming off of his second TJ surgery and has never thrown more than 140 innings and that was in 2019. He should be handled very carefully. 120 innings would be terrific for Paddack and set him up nicely for 2025. The real unknown is how many innings the team receives from guys like Festa, Woods Richardson, Headrick, and others.
  7. tony&rodney
    Interesting experiment. If one just throws out the name of Royce Lewis, instant recoil, disfavor, and derision is a result. No need to wait hours to see the full reaction. The Twins have a decent team right now, but Kirby or Gilbert, just to name two, are not available for prospects or Polanco/Kepler plus prospects. I'm assuming the one player totally off limits is Walker Jenkins. While the Twins should keep Royce Lewis to see what they have in the young third baseman, he is the only name that would work in a deal for a top starting pitcher. The Larnach (fill in the name) plus similar others doesn't work. The idea of strengthening the offense is one I can get behind. The Twins had some solid depth last season, which has already been pointed out. Trading any of Polanco, Kepler, Farmer, or Vazquez weakens that depth after the team has already seen Solano, Farmer, and Gallo move on as expected. Those three had 1170 PA. I think Riverbrain gave a full account on the argument for offense. Nobody has an idea of where the final roster budget will rest. Perhaps someone could put up a poll. Do you think the front office will sign Jordan Montgomery or Blake Snell if trades cleared $27.1 million? That is JP, MK, & KF. The Twins are not signing a high priced free agent. Thus, all talk about putting cost savings toward pitching is moot. Buxton and Correa have no trade clauses in their contracts. Discussions of that type belong in the fantasy league sections. Other teams face similar difficult situations. Seattle gets discussed quite a bit and Trader Jerry has been spinning the roster and clearing money. Seattle has a couple of fine utility players and feel that a return to Seattle will help resurrect Haniger. So Raley and Haniger vs. Wallner and Kepler? Urias and Rojas vs. Lewis and Polanco/Julien? Really pointless because there is an entire roster to consider, but you get the idea. Every team faces some challenges. The Twins need all of their starting pitchers to do their best and the offense needs to take a big step forward in the coming year.
  8. tony&rodney
    So maybe if getting a good starting pitcher is so important the Twins should be discussing what type of return is possible for Royce Lewis.
  9. tony&rodney
    Farmer and Polanco can both play first base.
  10. tony&rodney
    462PA vs 840PA. These are the number of regular season plate appearances by two Twins who were in the lineup during the playoffs during the last two years. Injuries happen and eventually baseball careers end. There doesn't need to be a rush to judgment on Polanco's health. The other guy, Royce Lewis is getting MVP chants and the Twins and fans are super excited to see what he can do this season. He last had a healthy run in 2019. Kirilloff is as good a bet as Lewis on health and Polanco is a better bet than both of those guys based on their careers. Focus on which players are the most likely to provide production this coming year. Polanco is at full health right now and should be a good bet. Let's hope all of the Twins have a healthy year. The Twins have at bats to go around and this is easy to see when you total the plate appearances of Gallo and Solano. Unless Polanco is a part of a larger trade that brings in a pitcher like Luzardo, Gilbert, or Kirby the Twins need his experience and skills.
  11. tony&rodney
    Hahahaha ..... oops. I di it first as a lineup (batting order) but deleted that and was too quick with the list. Let me try again. Vazquez, Jeffers Kirilloff, Julien, Lewis, Correa, Polanco, Farmer Wallner, Buxton, Kepler, Castro, and ....... I'm very sorry to do this but I decided you don't get a pick ..... Martin.
  12. tony&rodney
    Vazquez, Jeffers, Kirilloff, Polanco, Julien, Lewis, Correa, Farmer, Wallner, Buxton, Castro, and two of Martin, Gordon, Miranda, Larnach, Prato, Helman. I will pick Martin. You can pick the other one. If we need to move players who have missed a ton of playing time, it is looking bad for Lewis. Nah, don't think so. Do you.
  13. tony&rodney
    Larnach seems like a guy who could be ok, but he has had a number of chances. Maybe he gets another shot and blossoms. I would argue that the Twins really need Kepler. If Kepler were to be traded, i would hand the job to Austin Martin or Willi Castro in hopes of better offense and defense than expected from Larnach.
  14. tony&rodney
    Chris Paddack will be limited in innings as he returns from TJ surgery. We can hope for 120 innings from Paddack as our #5 starting pitcher. Hopefully, his turn gets skipped on occasion to keep him fresh and leave his arm time for reacquainting to the rigors of pitching multiple innings. His personal high was 140 innings in 2019. All of the others (Lopez, Ryan, Ober, Varland) are only limited by effectiveness and/or injury. The key will be health and we hope each of the five (for now) starting pitchers can maintain their health. Fortune, obviously, is important but the top four could each throw near 180 innings or more, although the odds may be pointed against that good luck. Naturally, there will need to be a number of starts and innings provided at various points in the season by guys who may not currently be scheduled to start the year on the big league squad.
  15. tony&rodney
    Dipoto does a good job of repeating himself. After the season ended, again after the first transaction, and in metronome fashion after every trade thereafter including the last one Jerry has stated something nearly like, "I really like our team right now". It really is consistent ..... and then he goes out and makes another trade. I'm a baseball fan and always a Twins fan but also have liked the Mariners since Edgar (1990). Dipoto has some more work to do if he wants to win 90 games or more. He likes to trade and might have to gamble a bit more, which he loves to do.
  16. tony&rodney
    Chuckle a little bit every time I read a post where Brock sends off Kepler. Can your health take another year of Max?
  17. tony&rodney
    This is right on. When you think of who will be more healthy this coming season, do not place any bets. Sometimes it seems like a number of people look too far ahead and get involved in fantasy type baseball. The at bats that were taken by Gallo and Solano at DH and as infielders will need to be apportioned.
  18. tony&rodney
    RIP. The 1984 team was fun to watch.
  19. tony&rodney
    Nash Walker has written the best post on Jorge Polanco to date. Polanco is on the team, thus it isn't a question of adding his salary. His value to the team is beyond his trade value for gathering a #2 starting pitcher. Freeing up money will not bring in a starting pitcher. In other words, just what Nash says - he stays for now. The long, much discussed search for a trade to bring in an inexpensive, controllable excellent starting pitcher hardly includes Jorge Polanco. If the Twins want to complete another huge trade the main name coming from Dipoto is going to be Royce Lewis. Polanco could possibly be an extra piece in a large trade but it does appear that the Twins are going to be better off, roster wise, by not making any trades at this time.
  20. tony&rodney
    Maybe A ball, but not close to AA. A player like Brooks Lee was judged to be the singular best hitting college player two years ago but started in the rookie league and then on to A and AA. Dylan Crews started in R league and then went to A and AA this past year. These are the very best college players. The Twins drafted a ton of really good college pitchers in 2022 and they spent last season in A ball. Teams like LSU could not compete in an A+ league. Baseball is a difficult profession and it takes time to learn and practice the skills. Projecting who will be good is really difficult. The pick of Cavaco was strange because he was picked as a shortstop because of his physical talent but had problems in high school at third base and did not blow many people away in his SoCal play. The Twins were enamored with his physique and liked his personality.
  21. tony&rodney
    We should not expect Bauer to get another chance, FWIW. Public relations.
  22. tony&rodney
    I'm just an average guy. The constant hyping of two utility players as superior to Polanco is weak. Sorry. I don't know why you are so down on Polanco. The odds of Polanco starting on Opening Day are very high, not so for your two fellas. The repeated reference to Polanco as done remind me of the hundreds of comments that called for Julien to be cut, demoted, traded, or just released last summer when he made a number of poor defensive plays. The post, however, relates to the recent trade between the Giants and the Mariners. Seattle is trimming money from their future payrolls by sending off Ray. This extends an offseason of checking the budget and seems like a good move. They also return a fan favorite and needed outfielder, Haniger, for now. I can see the Mariners looking to move him during the season unless he has a total resurgence, which is also possible. The Giants don't see a use for either player and are taking a gamble on Ray returning for some use in August and hope he regains value in the next two years. It is quite a gamble long term for the Giants but they lose nothing short term. The Mariners get some depth or middle relief now and an outfielder. With the added cash, the Mariners only pay a little more this year but save big in the next two years. The trade served both teams needs.
  23. tony&rodney
    Hahaha ... I admire your fandom. If you can find a single GM in baseball who would pick Urias/Rojas over Polanco, immediately go out and buy a lottery ticket. You can keep the fangraphs and other fun stuff up for months, but Polanco, even if he is no longer an AL All Star Game starting shortstop, remains a very good player. If we are picking teams, you can have both Urias and Rojas and i will gladly take Jorge. I'm not in favor of the Twins trading Polanco and i hope that Urias doesn't get cut if the Mariners pick up another infielder.
  24. tony&rodney
    For no particular reason I side with any of those who feel that Julien feels he can do quite a bit better the next time around. His discomfort early was clear, particularly in the field, and he took some time to get comfortable on the big stage. I think we saw what Julien can do in the playoffs. I feel he will work his arse off to improve his fielding and judgments at the plate. I believe he will improve all three of his triple slash numbers in the coming season.
  25. tony&rodney
    This was a fun team to watch. Unfortunately, through no fault of their own, Manfredball decided that baseball should use a superball in 2019. That and other actually better teams pushes this squad out of the top ten.
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