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tony&rodney

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Everything posted by tony&rodney

  1. tony&rodney
    Polanco is so much better at baseball than any and all of those Seattle players that it is actually absurd to have this conversation. Yes, Polanco has been injured a few times and had less than expected totals the last two years. Do we know of any other infielders on the Twins team who have had injuries? So 29 home runs is disappointing, right? Seattle would love that problem. A real question is ... Why is Jorge Polanco so underrated?
  2. tony&rodney
    If we continue to have the absurd 5 minute delays while New York checks whether a guy lifted his foot a quarter inch off the bag after stealing second base cleanly, the least Bonehead Manfred can do is put in the challenge system. Edouard Julien would appreciate this.
  3. tony&rodney
    Dude, go watch the movie, Concussion. Football is literally broken. However, not fair by me because I don't follow the game since working on the sidelines and seeing the effects decades ago. To each their own.
  4. tony&rodney
    The sabermetric folks think you should sit down and watch a bunch of baseball before drawing too many random conclusions.
  5. tony&rodney
    So Lewis too?
  6. tony&rodney
    We can agree to disagree on this. The Mariners have holes at 2B, 3B, LF, RF, and DH. They are pretty weak at 1B. They have great starting pitching. The Twins are fine everywhere but could use an additional bat and a starting pitcher as good as Lopez. The season is still a long way off which makes any argument about 2024 results pointless at this time, but for right now the Twins are in better shape. A factor to consider for Seattle is that they have both Texas and Houston in their division. Meanwhile the Twins will be scrapping it out with Detroit, KC, and Cleveland.
  7. tony&rodney
    Does anyone remember that Varland had 7 successful starts in April and May last season? His performances showed an ability to go 7 innings. There can be no doubt that command and sequencing could use improvement, but not many pitchers blast their way through lineups in their first few years. It would be a mistake to put Varland in the bullpen next season unless the Twins add two pitchers who slot in above/behind Pablo Lopez. The Twins need to find out what Varland can do as a starter because he has the stamina, strength, and pitches to throw 180-200 effective innings in 2024.
  8. tony&rodney
    Christian Encarcion-Strand is the guy to regret for what he will soon become. I wonder what it would take to get him back? His defense is lacking and he strikes out quite a bit, but he is going to absolutely mash in the middle of a lineup. Worst trade? "Don't look back ..... " I never cared for Tyler Mahle when he pitched for the Reds. He was, undeniably, a decent pitcher, but the nibbling, the home runs, and his general approach never did it for me. Good for Mahle that he has signed another contract and I was glad that Falvey sat that one out.
  9. tony&rodney
    Trades are difficult to guess because as fans we don't really know how each front office views their organizations or the specific players. David Festa is added quite frequently in various deals, but he is potentially a Bryan Woo or Bryce Miller or better. Edouard Julien is another player put into many conversations as a guy to trade, but he is a potential Jeff Kent catalyst for offense. I understand that the Twins or any team takes a chance when a trade is made. My thinking is that the Twins hold the cards here. Seattle, Miami, and Milwaukee all need the Twins to listen more than the Twins need their players. I'm a little bummed that the Twins did not sign a reliable backend guy like Michael Wacha and am still hopeful that the Twins find a way to bring in Lucas Giolito on a one year deal. Giolito should be betting on himself to return to the market next season after a strong showing in 2024. The Twins are a team that would boost his stock. FA pitchers do not cost us players or prospects. If I had to trade for Burnes and Polanco had to be a part of the deal (I remain a huge fan of Jorge), I would send Chris Paddack and a minor league guy (maybe Cory Lewis) and add Kyle Farmer if that makes a difference. I'm not seeing the Brewers dealing with the Twins though.
  10. tony&rodney
    Brooks Lee and Chris Paddack for Jesus Luzardo might work.
  11. tony&rodney
    Maybe Polanco and Paddack for Burnes. The Brewers get Polanco for two years plus a guy who can deliver about 250-275 innings in Paddack. The Twins get a draft choice and hopefully 200+ innings from Burnes.
  12. tony&rodney
    It seems like quite the long shot that the Twins will spend big money on a pitcher, which is precisely why they have not been a player in the free agent market. While all things are possible making it an option, the odds of considering a trade for Castillo are nearly nil. Burnes is a possibility, but also low because he will go to FA and the cost will be a player like Brooks Lee. Does it seem like the eventual addition will be a surprise? We might also be surprised at the cost, which could go either way.
  13. tony&rodney
    I don't disagree with you about the Twins getting outbid, but this is also an indication that the Twins are not going to pay big salaries for pitchers this year. Things may change next year. I will add that we hoped that the Twins would sign a guy this year, but it isn't going to happen. More and more, I'm not real interested in trading a top prospect/player such as Julien, Lewis, Wallner, Festa, or Lee, much less the key prospects below AAA. I'm not taking on either of Ray or Castillo. I'm still in on Gilbert or Kirby and fully understand that the Mariners are extremely unlikely to trade them. I am also bullish on Louie Varland which most people seem to disagree with right now. The Twins could use some depth behind Lopez, Ryan, Ober, Varland, and Paddack, for sure. Polanco seems to be the guy to trade as well although I'm still believing in his value. The three guys who are going to be constantly asked about though are still Lewis, Lee, and Julien. There are going to be many teams contacting the Mariners and Marlins and both of these teams will be calling the Twins too. If the Twins did trade Polanco for a player earning a minimum salary, I would hope there is room to add a Justin Turner or Rhys Hoskins in the budget.
  14. tony&rodney
    Why would the Twins trade for Castillo? If the Twins wanted to spend that much money they would just sign Montgomery or Snell. Castillo is not an option at all.
  15. tony&rodney
    Garver as a power bat? Polanco as a power bat? Who has more career home runs? Season high? Expected? Consistency? RISP? I never think of Polanco as a power bat but why is he so underrated? I get that the Twins have the depth to hopefully cover him at 2B. I get that he has had some injuries and declined in athleticism, but Jorge is still a very good baseball player. Perhaps Polanco gets used all over the infield and as a sometime DH this year. I'm not sure how Jorge himself feels about having an unclear role in 2024. Garver is not nearly as valuable a player as Polanco and he would be more expensive too. Garver in 2024? No way.
  16. tony&rodney
    Robbie Ray is due back after the All Star Game, which makes his salary about $11-12M for 2024 and then he is still due another $50M plus $1M if traded for 2025-2026. Castillo is due $24+M per year for four years plus an option. Both potentially good pitchers. Why would you trade for these guys as opposed to signing Snell or Montgomery as free agents? Seattle has to either sign some free agents to fill spots in the outfield and infield or acquire some players via trade. Thus far, the Mariners have been a little skittish about paying bats via free agency, although they could certainly change their past practices. I don't believe teams will be looking to help them out.
  17. tony&rodney
    The Marlins are a bit of an enigma. They need a true starting catcher, a shortstop, and a first baseman/DH. If Miami sees a place on the field for Polanco, I believe they would trade Cabrera to the Twins. A throw in like Mercedes or Sean Mooney type would help add a controllable prospect that does not need to be on the 40 person roster. The Twins will not want to add guys who are out of options that do not figure to be contributors. The money remains a mystery as far as adding Giolito. Bauer has his name brought up in numerous chats on various sites and every writer has said that there is currently zero interest from any MLB team. I believe Bauer is a firm no from the front office. A ton of trade options have been proposed and are always interesting to think about. I'm pretty bullish on Louie Varland as the Twins #4 starting pitcher at this time. Chris Paddack fits perfectly as a #5 starting pitcher because he can be skipped in the rotation as the team uses the schedule to find him days for extra rest. Paddack will be lucky to reach 120 effective innings this season. Varland has no limitations at all.
  18. tony&rodney
    BTV has shifted values for some players at least three times since the season ended, some by quite a bit. Emm-Rod could slot into a prospect list at #25 or better when all of the new lists come out, which might push his value on BTV into the 40s or 50s. Those lists are quite fluid. Additionally, while there are close values on many trades, we can see vast differences in trades that include major names. Look only to the Lopez-Arraez, Soto, or Glasnow trades to witness the wild discrepancies (according to BTV) in some transactions. Seattle cannot compete with the team they currently have rostered, the Twins can. Knowing this, the Twins need to proceed with the knowledge that other teams need their players much more than the Twins need to complete a deal. Both Polanco and Kepler have tremendous value in the short term. I would not agree to any of the trades offered here. Seattle would jump at #1 and #3. I'm not sure Seattle wants a prospect a couple of years away, especially one who has struck out at high rates (#2), and I'm not feeling as much love for Miller (or Woo) as some others. I'll take Varland. The Twins did not show any interest in Gurriel Jr that I'm aware of and I'm not sure that Falvey is working hard to sign Rhys Hoskins. These were two players I think would benefit the Twins. While it isn't unusual for the Twins to wait until later (Jan.-April) to complete their team, the number of good players has dwindled to high-priced free agents and questionable risks. Trades are going to be difficult to complete with Seattle. Perhaps Miami can be a repeat partner for Falvey.
  19. tony&rodney
    I'm hoping to see both Soto and Winokur play a number of times this coming season. Having only seen briefs videos on these two and read their reports, it is tough to get a feel for them. Certainly you and another paint positive pictures, which is exciting. I'm hoping for the Twins to benefit eventually from these two players.
  20. tony&rodney
    The compensation in baseball for these young (inexperienced) players is a good thing to an extent. CEO pay is 254+ times the pay of median workers. Free market system has never been free. We all get to work somewhere. All is well that ends well: good for Ober and good for Ohtani. The compensation reward tells a story too ... Ober and Julien were the Twins most valuable young players.
  21. tony&rodney
    Exactly, we don't know. We get to guess though. What is your guess?
  22. tony&rodney
    This goes back to the budget for 2024. Are the Twins already at their ceiling? Do you believe the Twins will settle at $140 million? If you believe the Twins will go to $140 million or higher for 2024, then there is room to spend $15-20M and add Rhys Hoskins. If the number is at or close to the current figure of @$125M, then there isn't any do-re-mi. That is how. It isn't really something to care about or really discuss but I thought I should address your question. Personally, I would like the Twins to set their roster budget near $175 million. Sadly, they have not contacted me.
  23. tony&rodney
    A continuing question remains ...... Where will the roster budget rest ? There is quite a divide on TD on that front, apparent from those who propose free agent signings to contracts that may or may not fit, all depending on the final dollar settings. When the offseason began, there were optimistic projections of near $170 million and then the online TD budget tool figure of $150 million. A vague rather flip comment from Falvey suggested that the budget was out of alignment, or some such words to that effect, and that a natural correction to the roster expenditures would occur reflecting several years of overspending. Thereafter, a general range of $125-140 million was put into numerous articles and became the new obscure reality. The bottom figure seemed to indicate the number where a much reduced media deal might push the new roster numbers. Meanwhile, the Twins have passed on just about everything, which has been in any event the usual norm, meaning really nothing or no reason to worry yet. So we wait .... and hope that Falvey has lost Joey Gallo's contacts.
  24. tony&rodney
    Too bad Houston didn't have that report on Julien.
  25. tony&rodney
    Way too early to make any guesses about players who have not made it to AA ball yet. On the other hand, we can be excited about the potential of any number of prospects in the Twins system. The physical talent needs to meet the maturation process and deal with days and weeks of failure and then adjustments are made along the line. I can remember going to a game in Dunedin in July years ago where the starting pitcher for the Blue Jays minor league team struck out the side for three consecutive innings on about 35 pitches. The top of the 4th inning that same pitcher gave up three mammoth home runs on consecutive pitches. The manager walked out and took him out. Baseball is tough, there are lessons to learn. I was glad to see the Twins take a chance on signing Winokur because he is athletic. It will be interesting to see how he does this coming year. The same goes for Charlee Soto. Meanwhile other players up the line will be trying to make their mark. The minor leagues are always fun to follow.
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