tony&rodney

Any of these three would be nice to have as Twins for the next few years. Any of them should be a potential boost for the team. Thing is, i'm not too sure that the Twins will sign a pitcher to a big contract from free agency. I have no objections whatsoever.

The idea is to compete and the Twins can compete with their current roster. I'm not married to my changes or trades. I tried to think of how another team might see the Twins players. I also made a determination that the team would go in a direction at second base and that may be way off. I did not want to part with either Jorge or Max but traded both so one doesn't have to wear the Twins uniform without the other. The trades: 1. T. Larnach, J. Winder, T. Schobel for E. Cabrera (Miami). These are players looking for a change of scenery. 2. J. Polanco, B. Lee, K. Rosario, T. Adams for G. Kirby (Seattle). Big trade that should benefit both teams. Prefer Kirby over Gilbert, but barely. I would still do trade for Gilbert. 3. J. Ryan, J. Moran, Y. Mercedes, N. Miller for C. Burnes (Milwaukee). This might work. If not, just put Ryan back in Twins rotation. 4. M. Kepler, B. Ober, J. Salas, J. Rodrigues for J. Soto (San Diego). This might be moot point because SD may not even listen. Kepler and Ober can easily slide back onto Twins team if this does not work, although I would offer a couple of lower level lottery players if SD is willing. The first two trades should be possible and if the other two do not, the Twins would have some money for a bat like Lourdes Gurriel Jr. and Kepler and Ober fit nicely onto the Twins roster. Lastly, I like to think that these wild speculations should come out before the first trades and free agent signings. C: Ryan Jeffers ($2.30M) 1B: Alex Kirilloff ($1.70M) 2B: Edouard Julien ($0.75M) 3B: Royce Lewis ($0.75M) SS: Carlos Correa ($33.33M) LF: Juan Soto ($33.00M) CF: Byron Buxton ($15.17M) RF: Matt Wallner ($0.75M) DH: Jose Miranda ($0.75M) 4th OF: Willi Castro ($3.25M) Utility: Austin Martin ($0.75M) Utility: Kyle Farmer ($6.75M) Backup C: Christian Vazquez ($10.00M) SP1: Pablo Lopez ($8.25M) SP2: Corbin Burnes ($15.50M) SP3: George Kirby ($0.75M) SP4: Chris Paddack ($2.50M) SP5: Louie Varland ($0.75M) RP: Jhoan Duran ($0.75M) RP: Brock Stewart ($0.75M) RP: Griffin Jax ($0.75M) RP: Jorge Alcala ($1.00M) RP: Caleb Thielbar ($3.00M) RP: Matt Canterino ($0.75M) RP: Edward Cabrera ($0.75M) RP: Kody Funderburk ($0.75M) Payroll is 3.00% under budget

There is plenty of discussion about this issue. Every decent team needs a player who can play backup at shortstop. Lewis did not fare well in the minor leagues as a shortstop. In fact he was moved off of shortstop in high school because third base was a better fit for him. Royce is more of a reaction type fielder than an anticipatory, quick, soft hands, etc. guy, which is needed to play in the middle of the field. While I have not been overly impressed by Farmer, I must admit that his versatility and competence are exactly what is needed in a utility player. Farmer's return from a broken face last year was a true sign of his toughness. A bonus is that it appears he is also a fine teammate. I'm keeping Farmer for $7 million if needed.

How does this affect offseason plans for Milwaukee, if at all? The Twins might match up with the Brew Crew in a trade.

I agree with this. While the Twins are very competitive in a series with any of these teams, they still need to take a few steps to become equals with the top teams over the long haul. The key, as always, is talent. I'm still not convinced the Twins will add a SP from free agency. I do think they make a gamble on a few trades. Personally, I'm hoping for four trades.

We can guess that there are quite a few conversations taking place within the MLB front offices,. Twins too. Falvey and crew will go position by position down the lists looking to see where the strengths and weaknesses lay. The depth last year was good but partially came from the onset of rookies pushing their way up. This then creates a similar guess about which rookies are ready to contribute next year. A few guys that catch my attention as depth rookies who could play useful roles next year are Austin Martin, Anthony Pratto, Michael Helman, and possibly DeShawn Kiersey Jr. I don't see any of them being All Stars, but being solid players who make contributions when needed. Then Falvey and crew need to look at the depth and assess who projects to become/hold a position in a manner that brings the highest value to the Twins and which players then are possibly going to bring the most back in a trade. There are two unknowns: 1. What value do other teams place on players in the Twins system? 2. Do the Twins take some risks to push their talent level higher or do they focus more on another AL Central Division W? When people put together their own ideas they reflect either going with a large percentage of players already within the system in hopes of another AL Central push or moving toward a strategy intended to add a higher level of potential. The one thing we can be certain of is ..... You just never know what path is better.

While my confidence may be solid that the Twins can repeat as AL Central winners, I do remember that Cleveland won the division in 2022 by more games than the Minnesota team did in 2023. Don't dismiss any team, the games are always won on the field. Who had Arizona in the World Series? I, too, believe that Terry Francona shed an aura of calm and competence that gave young players the confidence to play without looking over their shoulder. That said, the Guardians need to add some players who can drive the ball. The Twins need to think holistically about how they can repeat their advantages of the depth of 2023 while adding to their talent. While I have no clue if Falvey will take any measured chances this offseason as he did last year, I believe the opportunities are there.

Agree it would be nice to add some free agent starting pitching although the Twins have never spent big on that. On money, it seems like you did make a comment .. . but yes it might be better if all financial compensation globally could be restrained to a random number, maybe $1 million per year. FWIW, there are not any baseball players making a billion dollars but there are more billionaires than major league baseball positions in any given year. Money is crazy and people seem to love it. The Twins are a business and need to remain within the parameters of the boundaries set by their accountants. The guys who crunch the numbers tell their bosses all of the numbers and the bosses then make the decisions. Do the Pohlads want Soto?

Locked in with a .215 BA and whiffing way too often. 1. Good luck to Sabato. 2. Everyone makes mistakes and drafting Sabato was a mistake. 3. No, Sabato does not get put on the 40 person roster.

No idea what the teams around baseball think about Bauer, but I believe he is best categorized as a former MLB player at this point. Arizona, Cleveland, Cincinnati, and Los Angeles Dodgers all took their best shots at making him a part of their teams. 2019 was the last time that Bauer pitched a full season. Noted that 2020 he was good in the shortened year. Maybe a team offers him a one year two way contract with modest incentives. Who knows? Trade targets are everywhere but the teams that seem worth a text are Miami, Seattle, and Milwaukee. The Twins need to gauge what other teams value from the Twins system.

Perhaps this conversation is at cross purposes. It would seem impossible for anyone to choose Farmer above Polanco straight up where you are picking a team. When considering all possibilities in the trade market, it seems highly likely that Polanco returns more than Farmer. If the Twins can get a return for Polanco that significantly improves the team, they do it and may even keep Farmer as a reserve. The unknown is the value another team places on adding a player like Polanco to their roster. We can look to last year where it was assumed that the Twins would need to add several players along with Arraez to acquire Pablo Lopez. Yet Miami had a very high interest and value view of Arraez. The unknown puts a limit on a position. Many folks on TD reference BTV for relative values. Both Farmer and Polanco have little value based on that site. In reality there may be a team who highly values Polanco and if another decent player accompanies him a good return is possible. The unknown may also include that there is no interest for Polanco, which means the Twins may need to choose between Farmer and Polanco. In that case, the choice is easy.

Like the idea of adding Gilbert (or Kirby for that matter), but Seattle has stated a desire to acquire more players who put the ball in play. E-Rod tends to strike out a fair amount. Does Lee work? Also, we all would like to the Twins add a potent bat. Who is that guy? Teoscar Hernandez, Gurriel Jr., or who? Bellinger could protect two positions but may get $200 million total. Soto? Who goes the other way when Soto is a one year deal for big bucks? There are possibilities, but I'm unclear what teams see the Twins as a valuable trading partner. I'm not too sure the Twins are going for a FA pitcher (like you say) despite the potential promise possible. It also saves trading away assets.

Thank you. I had thought you must have been pretty busy lately. I hope are happier with Max Kepler (jk).

Was the blueprint for the offseason from Brock and is he still involved in TD? In 2022 the Twins ended the year on a sour note and offseason chatter began well before the World Series ended. Dozens of blueprints were up by mid November with the start some time in late October. Not much chatter this year. I'm just curious.

Agree that the Twins might want to see if they could add someone in the outfield. The problem is who? Maybe Lourdes Gurriel Jr. or Tommy Pham or Teoscar Hernandez? Are these guys going to improve the team? One of Bader or Kiermeier? The cost balanced against the expected return may be iffy. Royce Lewis has been already discussed endlessly and the Twins made a point to let everyone know that for the foreseeable future Lewis will be at third base.

No worries. No big deal. It just is a curious drop of names without anything attached. As you say - a small goof. It made me wonder if TD would repeat the blueprint copy from last season. Early November is about the time to get those offseason hacks in for what one guesses the Twins might feature for 2024.

So I wondered if this was just a list of Twins who could be on the roster, setting the base for building a team. There is no explanation or reasoning for the list. What this an accidental thing? A team that doesn't have any changes from players who were in the system already would be unprecedented. Does this kick off a potential blueprint plan season where TD puts out the chart similar to last year and people fill it in and explain their ideas? I don't get this list. In addition to not including any players that have not already played for the Twins, it does not even include a single rookie. This would be a first for baseball. I'm confused.

Not for Keller because it seems quite unlikely that Pittsburgh would trade any pitcher. They were 22nd in runs scored for their offense but have some young guys. Likewise the Pirates pitchers are 22nd (from best) in giving up runs. So they need to improve. I also am greedy and want someone that is possibly better. There are a couple of things I look for: 1) WHIP 2) BAA 3) BB:K 4) years and 5) availability. Of course, we do not know who exactly is available. We can guess that Seattle and Miami are a couple of teams worth calling. Alas, we are off topic here because this thread is about whether Pagan will get a good contract and perhaps some speculation whether the Twins would pay a reliever. To those questions I'm guessing Pagan gets a decent deal and the Twins do not spend for big for a relief pitcher.

The one thing I would add which makes me think Emmanuel Rodriguez can be a star is that he has a lightning quick bat. Falvey and the boys get paid megabucks to make the decisions.

Along with that .... is Kepler younger athletically than one might think? Who would replace Kepler?

Not that I necessarily disagree with the idea, but what makes you believe that the Twins will be signing a noteworthy free agent starter? Does the reduced experience and depth weaken the team?

Sometimes it is time to move on to a different job or to a new location. I'm thinking Costa Rica or Panama. Moving and switching jobs is a pain in the ass. The nervousness and excitement can be a good thing too. There are as everyone knows, so many unknowns. Maybe Sonny Gray is tired of that routine. Perhaps Gray would like to repeat another year with the same basic collection of teammates, trainers, manager, and location. If Sonny feels like he wants to pitch one more year, someone will offer more than $20.5 million for the year and if he thinks he is just hitting a groove he should seek 4/$90 million. Gray gets to determine where he goes .... finally. The money is not an issue because he will get paid in any event.

Ok. Isn't that what every team does though? I have no objection to how you define "pitching pipeline". I'm too sure how predictive that is for ensuring continuity but it sure can be as Tampa Bay has shown over the last decade. Some may have different views on what constitutes a "pitching pipeline". Either way, I hope the Twins swing another trade this winter to bring in a good arm.

Roster payroll is not an issue right now. The Twins can easily cut 10% from their last season's payroll and still fit everyone. Now, many folks have suggested adding a high priced free agent starting pitcher or re-signing Sonny Gray. I would like that too. However, the Twins have not previously been players in that market. If they are it means that they will keep or exceed the payroll numbers from last year. So, currently there is really zero concern with payroll.

Sure, this could happen. Athletes bet on themselves all the time. The unknown is how long Sonny Gray sees himself as an effective starting pitcher. There is an enormous time commitment put into the conditioning work and mental preparation for the season, not to mention the physical and mental grind of the actual season itself. Gray has suggested that he is still improving as a pitcher. Another unknown is how other teams view Gray. His age may seem like a barrier for some but a few guys have shown that experience and knowing how to pitch remains more predictive of success that youth or power. I like the "Hey, we're just riffing here" comment. Sonny returns -nice.