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tony&rodney

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Everything posted by tony&rodney

  1. tony&rodney
    I have not seen Winokur play in games, just a few highlight videos of a single pitch here and there. Have you seen him play? I'm curious what people say who have seen him play. I'm excited to see him play and love what I have read about Winokur. Are you referencing Emmanuel or Jose Rodriguez? I have not seen Jose Rod play but read solid reports on him. I have seen Emm-Rod and while he is still young (immature), the talent jumps out when you watch him. He controls the game when he wants to do so. He can run, field, throw, hit, and hit for power - that is a five tool player. His knowledge/eye for the strike zone matches or even surpasses that of Edouard Julien. No one else in the Twins system and hardly anyone else in all of baseball has a feel for the strike zone as clearly as Emm-Rod. The wart is a red flag; he can wander in his concentration and often just swings wildly and misses at pitches, even those right down the middle or just stands at the plate and takes pitches right down the middle. Thus it is hard to know where he is headed. This year should reveal how much determination Emm-Rod has towards the grind of professional baseball. I would not question the talent at all. If you saw his at bat where he just decided to hit a grand slam in the playoffs ..... it was electric. The ball was gone, poof. When people go to watch a prospect, a wide outcome is possible. Sometimes a writer/scout will see a guy strike out in four at bats without swinging and nobody hits a ball to the player in the field either. Then there are times a player will show off everything they have. I think that Keith Law had a pretty good write up on Emm-Rod last Spring. He could be top ten in all of baseball or not ranked at all. If I'm picking teams, I'm gambling on the talent.
  2. tony&rodney
    Yes, much worse. Awkward swings, demotion, more bad swings, IL, and finally surgery. The details are somewhat murky but the swing was affected immediately.
  3. tony&rodney
    If the Twins can return a pitcher like Gilbert or Kirby by trading Julien in combination with others, do it, providing the others do not cripple the team. i would expect both teams to benefit from such a trade. The important part is how another team views the Twins players. I would think that Julien would flourish hitting behind Julio Rodriguez and in front of Cal Raleigh. Either Rodriguez steals 80 bases or Julien gets a ton of fastballs in the zone; either way pitchers are going to suffer. Julien has not peaked. He has just scratched the surface of his potential. He is going to improve dramatically as a fielder, but never be close to a Robero Alomar. Julien will be slightly above average like all true Minnesotans. He will only gain strength which is bound to increase his extra base hits. Additionally, if the ABS challenge system ever is adopted his triple slash lines will go up and his k-rate will go down. The Twins can find at bats for everyone without a trade this year. A trade just seems inevitable due to the surplus of infielders. If the Twins feel that the team is in stronger position to win with Lewis and Lee than with Lewis and Julien or Lee and Julien, it makes sense to make Julien available for the right price. A reason I feel bullish on Julien is because runners on base are opportunities to score runs. Julien is the best we have at that skill and he can hit the snot out of the ball as well. Lee, Julien, Lewis, these are questions.
  4. tony&rodney
    The Twins simply do not have any two (or three) player(s) to compare to guys like Judge/Soto or Betts/Freeman/Ohtani. However, I do believe that it is possible that with good fortune, health, and continued growth the Twins will have a strong lineup. The offense of the last half of 2023 could be replicated and even improved in 2024. It is a reason I believe the Twins will be a better team next year than they were in the past year. As far as duos go, I would suggest that Edouard Julien and Royce Lewis batting 1 & 2 could be quite a start in any game. It will be the 1-9 lineup that makes a difference though. The Twins do not have the superstars to make any top ten list of duos in MLB. The Twins ranked #10 in runs last season and it would be sweet to see them reach the top five in the coming year.
  5. tony&rodney
    This is a valid point. I have been aware of that (Keller contract) and should have addressed it in my comment above. I would think the Pirates should try to extend Keller's contract. The Pittsburgh franchise has indicated they intend to compete. I guess it comes down to when the Pirates end the never ending rebuild. Like I said, Keller is a good pitcher. i like him and if the Twins can pick him up it might work out well all around. I try to think of trades from both sides, which is a little futile. As such, i don't see a decent reason for Pittsburgh to trade Keller unless they receive an offer they cannot refuse. They don't need position players, so maybe Raya, Festa, Varland, and Wallner+ or Culpepper+ instead of Wallner. In that case, it might work. On the other hand, I am on record as suggesting that the Twins do not trade any pitching unless it returns either Kirby or Gilbert. I'm just not seeing this match. I thought about how in late October. Others, including Tom Froemming I believe, have suggested trading for Keller and perhaps it all could be done.
  6. tony&rodney
    The United States was at war with itself from roughly 1970-1995, with rates peaking in the early 1900s. Murder, violent crime, and property crime fell off rather dramatically until a spike that began in 2015. Crime, today, remains substantially lower than the 70s, 80s, 90s, or 00s. https://www.brennancenter.org/our-work/research-reports/us-crime-rates-and-trends-analysis-fbi-crime-statistics The social ills referenced by many in the comments are largely a result of growing inequality from 1980 onward that has reversed the trends from roughly 1900-1980. These are choices made by populations (voters). Social problems are distinct from crime. Posey moved back to San Francisco from Atlanta the area because he loves the SF area and it is where he wants his kids to grow up. He is frustrated that the Giants have been unable to sign some free agents and wonders if the perceptions have become reality. In fact, players choose where they play for reasons that do not necessarily have anything to do with negatives, but rather reflect their own preferences. Ohtani likes where he lives in Los Angeles and wants to drive to work, so it was never going to be anywhere but the Dodgers. Aaron Judge was always going to sign with the Yankees. He loves the city and the legacy of being a Yankee great has its own allure. Joe Mauer was always going to retire a Minnesota Twin. He couldn't change his clothes or accent. There isn't any reason to read too much into why athletes make their choices of where to work. People are different.
  7. tony&rodney
    I agree with your comments and also look over these statistics on a routine basis. One note is that the Rays home is in St. Petersburg, not Tampa. The bridge and travel to get from the Tampa area to The Trop in St. Pete has often been stated as a reason for the poor attendance at Rays games. Tampa did have a brief period of glory in the early 1980s where it led the country in violent crime per population.
  8. tony&rodney
    Mitch Keller is a good pitcher, the only decent starting pitcher for the Pirates. Pittsburgh has specifically stated he is not available and that their top goals for this offseason are in this order: SP, SP, and SP. While I would like it if Keller appeared as a Twin next season, I don't understand why Pittsburgh would trade him. Can anyone reasonably explain why the Pirates would trade Keller? The only previous explanation was that the Pirates front office and owners were incompetent to a level that any team could take advantage of them. Hmmmm?
  9. tony&rodney
    I believe this is one of the arguments for keeping Kepler. His salary is low. Trade him and we can sign a mediocre relief pitcher with the savings.
  10. tony&rodney
    This is correct.
  11. tony&rodney
    Max Kepler is a beast and has just started his run of amazing years. It just took him a few years to balance everything out in his life. Now he figured it all out.
  12. tony&rodney
    This made me laugh. I remember getting trashed for speaking up for Kepler, but I also remember that my belief in him was wobbling badly. There isn't much logic in why I love to see Max Kepler on the Twins. He seems like that rare player who has a run of a 5-7 years of his best baseball that began last July. But then again ...... pumpkin.
  13. tony&rodney
    Emm-Rod is immature. He has moments where his concentration just wanders. This is pretty typical of young guys. He gets to Wichita and to St. Paul and then we should see him begin to take everything a little more seriously. Do not underestimate how difficult it is to grow up. We shall see soon. It often looked like he was disinterested. However, what about that grand slam in the playoffs. I could see that coming and actually said it out loud, "He going yard in this at bat". Let's check back with Emmanuel on August 1.
  14. tony&rodney
    Last season the Twins starting pitchers were among the leaders in innings pitched as a team because they had the guys to successfully pitch deeper into games. In other years, some of the pitchers often struggled in the 3rd inning. If Baldelli has guys pitching effectively he will let them keep going. It is the weakness of pitchers that results in shorter outings. One example - Greg Maddux could face a lineup four times and the batters would never see the same pitches. That and the friendly strike zone.
  15. tony&rodney
    Come on now. They don't play the same position. Their results are not actually similar, You are being silly.
  16. tony&rodney
    I was more referring to the Giants running into some roadblocks when signing major contracts with star players recently. Sure, the Giants have won three and that does take some luck, but they are also always working to some extent to put a decent team on the field. I'm not sure all teams can make that claim. Your point stands, a ton of teams are in line for better luck.
  17. tony&rodney
    I can't disagree with you really. I'm going off of a couple of things. The Twins (Falvey) loosely indicated a reduction in payroll. I'm guessing somewhere from $120-130 M. Of course this could be far different, it is just a guess. Last year I guessed $150 million. I was low then too.
  18. tony&rodney
    Ok. I agree that this is a problem that should be resolved.
  19. tony&rodney
    That trade includes a prospect and the Mariners have specifically stated that they are looking for MLB ready guys with lower K-rates. I believe it best to take people at their word, although i will grant anyone that people change their minds. Substitute Bailey Ober for Emm-Rod and you might get some interest. Additionally, Julien does strike out more than both Polanco or Brooks Lee, so maybe a substitution is needed there as well.
  20. tony&rodney
    Yes, I agree the Twins are looking to make a trade. There is zero chance in my opinion that the Twins sign a player for big bucks even if they clear dollars first. They have not played in that territory. As I often say, anything can happen. I would bet a grand against a Snell or Montgomery signing.
  21. tony&rodney
    We are likely working from different guesses. I'm guessing the Twins are going to land in the $120-130 million range for a roster budget, but I CLEARLY don't know. Thus, the Twins won't add guys with the knowledge that they have to reduce later via trade because their options would be severely restricted due to a need to sell. I'm also guessing that trades are the path that the Twins are looking towards in order to improve the team. I also believe the Twins are looking to trade for a pitcher that fits in with Pablo Lopez. The Twins are not going to sign a pitcher like Montgomery or Snell because that is not their practice. Now could the Twins do something far different? Of course. They could also issue a statement that they came very close to signing Ohtani. Anything can happen.
  22. tony&rodney
    If the Twins haven't moved on Lugo or Wacha it may indicate that the payroll is at the limit already, which may mean any moves that cost money depend on salary coming off the rolls before a new number is added. If, I mean if, that is the case we should not be entertaining any thoughts about signing free agents above the minor league deals with a an invite to Ft. Myers. Trades remain a possibility. Fortunately the Twins are already in a fair position with their current roster.
  23. tony&rodney
    I had to laugh when I saw this post and the number of comments. Then I looked for what Brock had to say. I'm a big fan of Max Kepler, always have been and have been disappointed at times but hung in for him. I also believe the Twins need him for 2024. A trade would need to return a substantial pitcher. There may be help on the way in a couple of years from Emm-Rod and Jenkins, but the outfield is thin right now. I had high hopes for Trevor Larnach but he didn't look very good in St. Paul and may do better with a change/trade. Wallner made some impressive adjustments but still has a lot to prove. I'm putting him in the lineup every day though. All of Gordon, Martin, Prato, Helman, and Lewis look like decent utility players until they manage to grab a position and prove themselves as regulars. The players who have value to trade include: Jeffers, Julien, Lewis, Ryan, Ober, Varland, Duran, and Lee. Polanco and Kepler are complimentary pieces. Kepler alone returns a relief pitcher. If the return includes a controllable pitcher like Gilbert or Kirby, the Twins may consider adding Raya or Festa to the pile.
  24. tony&rodney
    Money helps but it does not come close to being equal and can never surpass the power of the unknown. The Yankees and the Dodgers have been powerful organizations for a long time. In the same market, neither the Mets nor the Angels have managed to capture similar success. The development of baseball players bears zero resemblance to the developmental paths of sports such as football and basketball. Those highly drafted athletes slot immediately into starting and starring roles for their respective teams. Baseball has Aaron Sabato, Mark Prior, and everything in between. Baseball players have a difficult road to playing time at the highest levels with an unpredictable end point, where injuries or even social problems can end careers quickly. MLB has weak leadership that has failed to access the media and attendance potential of the sport at a similar level to basketball and football. Those who decry the competition should examine the results of the last 40 years in comparison to the preceding 40 years in baseball. There are conversations and negotiations on various details that may enhance the sport for all teams and the players, but the game is not suffering at the moment. The Shohei Ohtani signing has incited a raft of comments that push notions of imbalance and unfairness. The reality is that Ohtani was focused on playing for the Dodgers and the financials were irrelevant. We can be certain that multiple teams were willing to extend more lucrative contracts to Shohei. Baseball players should be able to work wherever they desire if they are able to manage the details. I would think that everyone should understand the allure of choosing your living and employment situation.
  25. tony&rodney
    I always agreed that the Twins could easily afford Shohei Ohtani. Thing is, Shohei just wanted to play for the Dodgers. He is a simple guy, lives in Los Angeles, and wants to work there too.
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