tony&rodney

How many people ever thought you would see Pagan in this sentence? Emilio sure closed out his time with Minnesota on a positive note, didn't he?

If a Kepler could be found in FA or in the minor leagues the Twins would have already released Max. The top free agent outfielder right now is Cody Bellinger. He is going to sign for big money. Kepler would be the second choice if he were a free agent this offseason and likely get 3-4 years and more than $50 million. It can be tough to see a guy earning $8-10+M per year have average results year in and year out. Kepler looks like he should be superman. He has a beautiful swing, runs like a deer, and fields his position nearly flawlessly. He also has one year left on his contract, which means he is almost certainly a short-timer with the Twins. If the Twins can find value in a trade, Kepler is gone. If he stays, Kepler is a free agent, which means he is gone next November. I'm a big fan of Max Kepler and hope to enjoy his work one more season. However, Max has infuriated a number of people who believe that getting rid of him will reduce their anxiety, save the Twins money, and allow the team to sign a top free agent pitcher. I think we will all see about the same time.

The Twins made a strategic decision in September to optimize the talent in their system by directing their #6 starter to work in relief with an eye for usage in the bullpen. This was directly related to a specific need in the pen for the postseason and a reflection of the fact that there would be no need of Varland as a starting pitcher in September or in the postseason. Of course, Baldelli (and everyone else) liked how Varland competed in the pen. If the Twins add two pitchers who slot into the rotation as #2-3 starting pitchers, Varland would be pushed back in a manner similar to what the Twins did last season with Bailey Ober. While I'm very hopeful the Twins add a replacement for Sonny Gray, I'm also ready to see Varland on the mound as a regular in the rotation of starting pitchers.

I could not find the quote. I believe Boras stated something along the lines of .... Royce Lewis is going to be a superstar playing on the dirt. Boras does a good job of talking up his clients. Actually Boras is an amazing person and his company is really incredible. He will be in the Baseball Hall of Fame eventually. Varland has said he loves being a starting pitcher on numerous occasions. It was more just a statement, not related to any aversion much less demands to avoid a role in the bullpen. Pretty simple really.

This I can agree with.

Bears are powerful animals. Vikings are mostly a myth. Why were they playing with each other?

My first thought was the same as my second thought - wow .... and good for him.

Pagan gets 2/$16M plus incentives and a player option in case he becomes a top reliever and would get even a better deal after 2024? That is wonderful for Emilio.

I like the optimism. I'm too boring because I took what Falvey said as what it is. You are probably correct. Either way, I never stress even a little bit over these things. I'm just a fan.

These are interesting ideas. Matt Moore and Harrison Bader could be good additions. A trade of Kyle Farmer for Dylan Carlson makes some sense for both teams. I don't believe both Carlson and Bader fit on the same team, so i would favor the trade. Why would Pittsburgh trade any pitching? This is similar to if the Twins decided to trade Joe Ryan for a position player. Of course, anything can happen but any team trading pitching that is really desperate for arms, like Pittsburgh, would be strange. Ideas for trading for pitchers from teams that are totally deficient in pitching has been quite common though so who knows. Hoskins can hit, that is a given. He burned his glove though. There are a couple of problems bringing him aboard. First, I think Alex Kirilloff and Jose Miranda can hold this spot in a productive manner. More importantly, I'm taking the Twins at their word that the budget will shrink, which means Hoskins is too rich for their accountants. He would be a sound choice if the budget was closer to the 2023 numbers.

Paddack will be watched closely. The Twins will be delighted to get 90-120 innings from him. Varland has pitched 150 innings each of the last two years and will only be restricted by how well he pitches.

This is a really optimistic number ($140M). If this is a reality, perhaps the Twins do push Varland off of the rotation. Or maybe the Twns add a good bat. I'm more cautiously thinking $125M. A reason that Seattle had two good rookie pitchers is because they each of Miller and Woo were given a sustained chance to pitch. I know you disagree, but I'm picking Varland for a starting spot. We shall see.

Why does that remind of when the Twins were in on Wheeler?

Austin Hedges is also available. He doesn't hit a lick, except the very occasional home run. The Twins will almost certainly keep Vazquez and play him in 80 games for about 250 at bats. The Twins are sitting around $120 million for payroll. They do not need to reduce that number. Thet probably have about $10 million to play with to add players. If a trade of Farmer, Polanco, Kepler, or Vazquez occurs that number available goes up. The Twins are not adding a top starting free agent pitcher even if they free up $35 million.

The Twins do not chase after high priced free agent pitchers. It is both the money and years required. Atlanta also follows this path. It is what it is.

Varland has thrown 150 innings each of the last two years. He has good stuff and throws strikes. Does Louie need to refine his command and sequencing? Of course he needs to improve, as do both Joe Ryan and Bailey Ober. Varland is less established than Ryan and Ober but his ability to keep the Twins in games should put him as a starter even if the Twins add someone else. We all hope that Chris Paddack is an effective pitcher in 2024. He pitched 140+ innings in 2019. His next best innings total is 108+ in 2021. Coming off of his second TJ surgery, Paddack has zero chance to pitch 150 innings. The goal is around 100 innings for the sheriff. The Twins would push Paddack to 120 innings if everything went perfectly. This leaves innings left to cover. Paddack will be the #5 guy and get his turn skipped on a number of occasions out of caution and concern for the elbow.

I have not seen him play in person. Have you? If you have, I'm just curious what you think. As I stated above Longenhagen does go out and see guys and he is pretty well respected in the industry. I too find it very hard to believe and I have watched him play many dozens of times via milb.com.

The loss of media money may have played a small role in deciding not to pursue Maeda aggressively. If the roster budget was going to be around $160 million as many people thought it would be in September/October, then things change. Maeda did a fine job for the Twins. He won't be so easily replaced. Paddack will not go much beyond 100 innings if that. Varland is an unknown, but I'm high on his ability to pitch more than 160 innings if he can be effective. Sonny Gray was always going to be a free agent and would sign with a team of his choosing, all things being equal. Neither Atlanta not Minnesota plays in the deep end for pitching, so it came down to CIN or STL. He made the easy decision. Gray would have resigned with the Twins in a heartbeat for 3/$75 million. We wish him well and now the Twins will need to cover his innings.

This is a good reason to pass on Anderson. I'm not trusting of the "bad guy" talk about Anderson. He was picked for the World Baseball Classic team and asked if he could play second base. Why would he be asked to join a volunteer team if he was a malignant cancer to clubhouses. I prefer to not judge people i don't know. He plays hard from my vantage point. The little dust-up with Ramirez was explained nicely by Hans. Doctor Gast set forth a reason why Tim Anderson may not be fully ready to play right away in 2024. Otherwise, unless their is definitive proof to be wary of Anderson, I wish him well. Baseball is a tough game to play - so much failure to accept.

I like your thoughts and responses on Twins Daily. You also propose a number of options when it comes to trades. What I cannot understand is your insistence on using BTV so closely. Why? I get that it works as a baseline guide of sorts. However, it goes all over the place and changes rapidly. Last offseason Miranda and Arraez were valued the same and both were at least 10 points less than Pablo Lopez. Wander Javier was near 15 at one point if my memory is close and just last week Jovani Moran was worth 10 points. In November Polanco went from 4 to 8 without playing. I get that this tool uses a ton of data and replicates a view of player worth. I actually think it is worth a glance, but close adherence to it doesn't make sense. Shuffling numbers does not take into consideration the needs of a team. Keller (PIT) is the only pitcher worth noting to start next season. Pittsburgh has specifically stated that they are not rebuilding and hope to field a competitive team. Trading Keller is akin to the Twins trading Lopez and Ryan for position players. All teams will trade any player if it clearly makes their team better and trades of MVPs happen, but the roster balance, salaries, and fit are all key to trades. The Miami-Minnesota transaction last offseason would not have passed BTV, but was a good example of teams filling holes. Both teams made the playoffs due in part to the contributions from their acquired player. I find it hard to understand the rapid shift to using BTV by so many folks and am not understanding why people have become so enthralled with their numbers. I think I have followed BTV for only three or four years and am not opposed to looking it over.

Tim Anderson totally fell apart last season and that is curious. He was always a guy who hustled and played hard. Hans, you do a good job of explaining his nightmare of a season. Our guy, Jose Miranda, hurt his shoulder and never could manage a decent swing the entire year and Miranda is relatively inexperienced. Anderson doesn't seem past his physical prime. He should be an interesting guy to watch this season. Seattle should sign him for second base. Unless the Twins unload a couple of second basemen, there really isn't any room on the team.

Well, actually I was only writing that in the sense of no budget limits whatsoever. Not all are past their primes, some are in their prime. But I get that it doesn't make sense to spend your budget on a guy who can get injured or flop. Will Verlander ever fall apart? JK.

I mean we all like the potential of Brooks Lee and he is a switch hitter too. Still, you are almost certainly the first person to suggest that Brooks Lee projects to be better in the field and at the plate than Carlos Correa. I sure would like that though and one never knows what will occur with prospects, just like a box of chocolates.

Sorry, it is the Competitive Balance Picks that can be traded, not the Comp Pick for Sonny Gray.

We all would like to see the Twins sign a top free agent starting pitcher. I would bet the chances of acquiring Juan Soto are greater than the Twins signing a pitcher like Snell or Montgomery.