Brandon

Our lineup clearly has issues this season and we have players who succeed at inconsistent intervals. But if you look at our players and bench and prospects you will find a lineup full of players with over a 100 OPS+ stats. That means they are above average hitting. And if we field a lineup of above average hitting players we might score more consistently and more often resulting in more wins. Here is one way I see we can optimize our lineup and put our best foot forward based on various stats. for this I am using the following for consideration. OPS+ (the main stat) Average, BB, XBH per 10, BB per 10 First let's sort through our starting 9 then figure out a proper batting order. C Ryan Jeffers is the better hitter between him and Vazquez with an .804 OPS and 124 OPS+ 1B Solano is hitting .773 OPS with a 116 OPS + He probably should be our leadoff hitter with that On Base Percentage of his .379 2B Edouard Julien .783 OPS and 116 OPS + he is even with 12 XBH and 13 BB in 127 AB and he has a solid .341 OBP 3B Lewis has a .863 OPS and 137 OPS+ he hits with a high average and decent HRs. however only 3 BB and 6 XBH in 81 AB so not patient and not quite at the 1 XBH per 10 AB you want to see but kinda small sample size. SS Kyle Farmer and Correa are pretty interchangeable here right now. Correa has more HRs and Farmer the higher OBP though not by too much. Correa is 91 OPS+ but has 28 XBH and 29 BB in 268 AB so he has a slight positive number in these 2 categories which means he just needs to get his batting average up to be a better contributer. OF Killeroff in LF with a .763 OPS and 113 OPS+ with a .366 OBP he could hit 2nd since he isnt reaching full power potential yet. OF Gallo in CF three true outcome player. over 60% of his plate appearances end in a HR, BB, or Strike out. with a .768 OPS and .110 OPS+ He still starts. OF Rf is a toss up of Larnarch, Kepler, or Castro. all are within a few points of each other in OPS Castro has more speed and Kepler has been great with the glove. OR we could give Walner a chance with his 1.099 OPS and 206 OPS+ while I doubt he would stay hitting at that pace he could hit .750 OPS and be better then the trio in front of him. DH Buxton and Polanco are interchangeable as long as Buxton is somewhat hurt. they both have a 103 and 102 OPS+ at this point. Though when healthy Buxton can hit. so lets configure a lineup from this and see what we think. Clearly this lineup is a defensive downgrade but much better hitting lineup. RHB 1b Solano 116 OPS+ LHB 2B Julien 116 OPS + RHB 3B Lewis 137 OPS + LHB LF Killeroff 113 OPS + RHB DH Buxton 103 OPS + LHB CF Gallo 110 OPS + RHB SS Correa 91 OPS + LHB RF Wallner 206 OPS + (SSS) RHB C Jeffers 124 OPS+ This lineup breaks up the RHB and LHB evenly throughout the lineup. it also gives us a lineup with everyone but Correa over 100 OPS +. it puts the high on base percentage guys at the top of the lineup. power is in the 5-8 lineup slots, and Jeffers has a great on base percentage at this point which helps serve as a line up catalyst at the bottom of the lineup. I left Correa in to help keep defense as good as possible. Taylor is ready to be deployed into CF for defense upgrade when needed. How would you try to maximize our offense with what we have.

I agree. I’m just going along with the premise of acquiring Goldschmidt and what it would cost to get him.

Goldschmidt is an MVP caliber player. You have to give to get. St Louis is in the same position as the Twins with their pitching. They have 4 or 5 starters eligible for free agency and little in the minors that’s ready. So if they trade their MVP. You can bet they want controllable starting pitchers.

I would have added them but we had Ron Davis after them and he was awful. In fact so bad the the Twins have always prioritized having a strong closer for the end of the game.

Duran doesn’t have the gaudy save totals which is a large part of the reason he doesn’t get as noticed as past closers. Nick you left out Reardon and Aguilera in talking about past great closers for the Twins. Since 1987 we have had a great closer. I guess what I’m saying here is Ron Davis so scarred Management with his closing ability that we continue to enjoy a prioritized great closer on a consistent basis. Let us recognize the goodness that came from Ron’s example of a career of why good relief pitching is important.

What would it take to trade for him? They desperately need controllable starting pitching so Ober and Woods-Richardson and Julien and Marco Raya or David Festa could work if Saint Louis is ok with those pitchers. But that is what it would take to get him. Also Saint Louis is playing better. so unless we trade them controllable starting pitching I doubt they would be interested.

I’m going to argue the opposite here. If his defense is as advertised then he has been exactly what he is supposed to be at this point. He is slumping so you can argue to give Larnarch more playing time while he works through his slump. But Gallo still has 20 XBH in 167 AB for a +3. Larnarch has 13 XBH in 152 AB for a -2. (1 XBH per 10 AB = 0. In case you are wondering). The same stat holds for walk rates too. Gallo has 27 BB in 167 AB for a + 10 and Larnarch has 23 in 152 for a + 8. Both are doing well here. Gallo is the better defender. He still needs to hit .220 to be valuable offensively and he isn’t. Larnarch hasn’t run away with the job yet either as he would be the starter now if he was hitting .110-.120 OPS points higher. The problem is consistency. Gallo has a similar OPS to Solano but Solano has been consistent. So while arguing for less playing time for Gallo is fair, his OPS is still in an acceptable range overall. And if his defense is solid he still has value. But he does need to break out of his current slump and soon.

Lopex has solid numbers across the board. Looking at them I wonder how he gives up so many runs? Does he just implode when a runner gets on base? but with the extension the Twins may not win the trade but will come out fine.

Also it would be nice to see a break out from a first rounder. Our record there is less than desirable. But I also saw where we have most of our 1rst round picks are later in the round. This year we pick 5th so that will be nice to see how that adds to our record. I hope Larnarch and Walner get some opportunities and success to get their record in the first round some credibility. and I am going to say the first and second pick with Lewis and Lee are fine for now. Though that is subject to changel. Lewis struggled when he was picked.

Last year we were a good team until injuries kicked in and tanked us the last month. we were in first place going into September last year. Sony Gray wasn't the problem. We are in first now with a large thanks to Grays performance as he is leading the staff. I also think other starters have benefited from having him around. how does that fit into the calculus? We have a great rotation this year. I hope we can resign Gray. if we can give him a qualified offer this offseason so we get a draft pick or get him on a 1 year deal that would be great. 2 years of what we get from Gray now is a great value and I am glad we made the trade and I am a Petty fan. If we get a third season or draft pick then even better and I think that tilts this in our favor.

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2023/06/twins-sign-dallas-keuchel.html I think this is a show of good faith for Scott Boras as we seem to sign more and more of his clients.

I think a solid reliever is his floor. He still has a high mid nineties fastball. While it may take a few more years to fully develop he could be a number 3-5 starter if I had to guess with improved control, a better slider and serviceable/ show me change up.

I could see the Twins calling Walner up and giving him some opportunities soon. He has earned it. But I think the Twins are more likely to roll with what they have because they have multiple moving parts that can be potential difference makers. Walner, Garlick in the OF. Lewis is now the 3B and he is doing a great job offensively last I saw. I think Correa is starting to get out of his early season slump. But Kepler and Gallo need to step it up if they want to keep their jobs is my thought., Larnarch also deserves playing time. I can see a scenario where the Twins aquire a hitter to play 1B or DH and move Killeroff to the OF and demote Larnarch or trade Kepler to improve the Offense. but other than that I really dont see the Twins doing anything. I agree with Reptevia that the Twins will target bullpen arms.

Buxton was only to DH the first half of this season I thought. His knee is healing and he should be back out in CF soon. I get that Taylor in CF is working out just fine. So maybe a 30-50% time for Buxton and the rest for Taylor after the All Star break and then back in CF next year. That is what I thought the aTwins management was planned. If Buxton is a full time DH from now on is a huge disappointment.

I can see a contract as high as 3 the first year and 12 for year 2 of a 2 year deal. With incentives to allow him to make it to 17 million. That would or should be the high point on a 2 year extension. A third season would have to guarantee 14 / 15 million or so. That’s a 3 year 30 million contract with incentives to push the value up to say 34 million. Because of the shoulder injury before the tommy John surgery I would just pass and move on. You are taking on too many risks in this scenario.

If we are talking about next year and beyond then next year Buxton should be back in CF. Atleast half time. I understand his move is because we traded for Taylor and Buxton”s knee. But next year his knee should be better and Taylor is a free agent. With Kepler, Gallo and possibly Polanco coming off the books The Twins will have the money to extend Gray if the want. Also I think the Twins will make a push to resign one of those OF probably Taylor. He can be a platoon CF and back up LF and RF. 1B Killeroff, 2B Polanco SS Correa, 3B Lewis and Lee will be getting opportunities to come up next year and be full time 2B the following season. You only want so many rookies starting at a time if you are planning on contending. Lee can get some opportunities at DH too as can Wallner, and Julien if they are not in the OF.

Last years slow start was partially attributed to the late start in spring training and short spring training from the lock out. While I fully understand slumps and am not surprised by any player going through one, I will be disappointed if Correa doesn't end up close to his career OPS by the end of the season (.828 career OPS). However he gets there is fine by me. But i think others prefer a more balanced OPS through out the year. especially at the beginning. The Twins Pythagorean win total should be 32-23 by runs scored and runs given up 248 to 208. vs the 28-27 record we currently have. I have never seen the Twins underperform this by that much. we are usually over with our record. That I think is the most frustrating part of the year. we have the offense it just doesn't work all the time.

You mean it wasn't Paganwaygone?

Here is some fun with numbers. Pagan has 2 appearances this season where he pitched 2 innings and gave up 9 hits, 2 walks and 9 earned runs. vs his other 17 appearances where he pitched 19 2/3 innings giving up 11 hits and 6 walks and 2 earned runs. Outside of those 2 appearances he is pitching better than Jhoan Duran overall, I would call his season a success because he has been so good for all but 2 games. This is what makes relievers so volatile. a few games can make their season look so much worse than it is.

For 2 million Solano is the ideal choice. The idea with him is he can hit lefties and like Garlick could probably pass through waivers and go to AAA for a while on his 2 million contract. Voit is the only one of those three I think the Twins would have considered. I think even more than those three the OF they almost pursued who went on to hit .150 and get DFA was the signing I’m glad didn’t happen I think it was AJ Pollak if I remember correctly.

So Enlow may be a front office pitching development. That will improve their record in this department considerably. Ober, Varland, Enlow and Balazovich…..

Tyler Wells was in AA and looked about ready for an opportunity at the time of his injury. He was forgotten by many on this site I think he was viewed as a back of the rotation starter with a chance to be a number 3 starter. I think he would have benefited from the Twins push on added velocity as he throws 94. We had many prospects back then and he was easily lost in the numbers. Losing Badoo was a big surprise no one saw coming. He was the type of player you leave unprotected. I think Detroit was so bad and had no farm system that they figured they could protect him for the season on their bench and stash him in the minors the following season.

If Lewis can turn in a solid 5/6 seasons with the Twins and Ober keeps pitching as a solid 3/4 starter and Enlow can atleast become a solid reliever if not 5th starter then the draft would be a huge success. The jury is still out but we know who is likely to provide the value. I hope Contreras and Bechtold get chances with us as a back up. Or a fill in for injuries so they can get some chances. If they play in the minors with us for years I hope they can atleast come up for a few at bats. This is one thing I really liked about past Twins teams was giving some players chances who were on the team in the minors a long time.

I think if the Twins want to keep Buxton fresh they rotate players including Buxton in CF. For now it would be Taylor, Buxton, and Castro. We can add Gallo and Kepler in there as they come back from injuries. But I would imagine Buxton could play CF once or twice a week.

What the offense needs is 3 or 4 1.200 OPS hitters with atleast a .450 OBP. That would solve most of our scoring problems I think. In all seriousness I think Killeroff is a big part of the solution. As is getting Polanco back. So now we need more on base percentage and we need a better hitting 3B then what Miranda provided. Farmer fixes that to a degree for now, but Lewis or a relaxed Miranda will give us that boost hopefully then it’s just either Correa hits better or gets moved to a lower spot in the lineup. I don’t care but something needs to give. If Correa speed isn’t lower than last year, I expect him to return to normal.