Riverbrian

Version A of Max Kepler is what he did after the all star break. Version A is an absolute bargain and irreplaceable. He was one of the best 20 hitters in all of baseball after the all star break. Version B of Max Kepler is what he did in the 2.5 years prior. Version B is absolutely replaceable and so replaceable that it doesn't even matter if you adequately replace him. If Larnach fails to replace Kepler for example. it doesn't matter because you are in the same spot. Either way... you have a guy occupying a roster spot that needs replacing. Which Kepler are we talking about? Which way would I bet? I don't know and I'm happy that the front office has to place that bet and not me. Besides I'm not allowed to bet on Kepler. I would have cut him in June.

OK... I understand that money in 2034 will have less value than it does today. And if that makes the value of the contract 480 million it makes the value of the contract 480 million. I'm not an economist so I will nod my head and say OK if that is indeed the case. But... this leads me to a few questions that hopefully someone can answer. The luxury tax hit is the AAV of the contract. If a player signs a 2 year 20 million dollar contract. 1st year for 5 million and the 2nd year for 15 million. The luxury tax for both years is the average annual value of 10 million. In the first year the team pays 5 million in salary but the competitive balance tax is 10. The 2nd year the team pays 15 million in salary but the tax is still 10. To go deeper into the weeds let's use Manny Machado for example. His contract has a luxury tax hit of 31,818,182 dollars for every year of his 11 year contract. That is the average AAV for his 11 year 350 million dollar contract. The 350 million is listed as 305 million in salary plus a 45 million dollar signing bonus that is spread out a 4.09 million for 11 years over the course of the contract. Which adds up to 350 million. 350 million divided by 11 is... 31,818,182. Manny was paid 13 million in 2023 and will be paid 13 million in 2024 and 2025. The luxury tax hit for 2023, 2024 and 2025 was and will be 31,818,182 for all 3 of these years based on his average AAV. Manny will make 21 million in 2026. The luxury tax hit will be 31,818,182 based on his average AAV. In 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, 2032 and 2033 Many will be paid 35 million each year and his luxury tax hit will be 31,818,182 based on his average AAV. The salary escalated the competitive balance tax remains the same throughout. OK... here's the question... I understand that money in 2034 is of less value than money in 2024. But wouldn't the same be true for money in 2033, 2032 and 2031. Wouldn't the 35 million paid on the back end of Manny Machado's contract also be of less value and then also subject to inflation adjustments that have occurred in the Ohtani contract? In the case of Manny Machado... the luxury tax remains static... completely locked in on the AAV of the contract. In the case of Ohtani... The luxury tax is adjusted. Here's another question: Didn't Ohtani essentially sign a 20 year contract at 700 million making the AAV of the contract 35 million? The Dodgers are contractually obligated to pay it over the course of 20 years. Or did Ohtani sign a 10 year contract at 2 million as a baseball player and 680 million dollar contract as team mascot. Making his AAV 2 million during his baseball playing days? To my knowledge... team mascots are can be paid whatever the team wants to pay them and it isn't calculated into the CBT. OK... One last question... What if Ohtani still wants to play baseball in 2035? He is not under contract to play baseball but the Dodgers owe him 680 million. Does he get 680 million from the Dodgers and 20 million from the Giants when he signs with them in 2035? I need to know the answers to these questions before I decide if I'm pissed or not. I'll hang up and listen...

I won't be able to explain it either but from what I'm reading it is because of present value vs. future value. In 2034 680 million won't be worth as much as 680 million today. Because of this... It's being reported that the true value of the contract is around $480 million and therefore a cap hit of $48 million dollar cap for 10 years. Not only does the CBA allow this... I would go as far to say that the CBA encourages this because the Dodgers just yanked 22 million a year off the cap. Wouldn't every team want to do that? It should work like this in my opinion. What are you paying a player in a given year. That's your cap hit. The Dodgers carry a 2 million dollar cap hit for 10 years and then carry a 68 million dollar cap hit for the next 10 years until they stop dropping money into his bank account.

Yesterday was amusing and disgusting all rolled into one. People tracking a random plane. I'm laughing. People making public Yusei Kicuchi's restaurant reservations. I'm laughing so hard that I can hardly breathe. His dog is named after a baseball team? I'm laughing so hard that I've fallen on to the floor. However... the reality of it all... All of it... The reality of how something like this happens... I'm not laughing. Nothing is more important than an informed public. Unfortunately this is how we are informed on nearly everything... not just baseball. This is how we demand to be informed because we ain't waiting for facts. We created this Morosi who is busy apologizing today. Journalistic ethics, integrity... Gone... we have no use for it.

It was a nice article. I actually liked your usage comparison for the label of super-utility and utility and I understood the point. I was just having fun with the constant need for the baseball community to stick players into boxes with a shipping label clearly identifying the product inside. I still prefer to call them baseball players. I refuse to limit them to a single position unless they are exceptional at the position. The math is always quite simple. Approximately 13 position player spots at a given time and 9 positions to occupy when each lineup is set. The baseball community likes to pick 9 starters and call the other 4 backups. Well... those 4 backups can't back up all 9 positions... Actually those 3 backups can't cover 8 spots because one is always a catcher. So... Unless you have an every day job playing one position exclusively.,. you become utility by necessity. It isn't that they can play multiple positions at virtuoso levels... they play multiple positions because they don't have a position that they have been designated to play exclusively. People are trying to kill Polanco because Julien plays 2B and this is the unnecessary filtering of possibilities and very limiting to getting the best players into the lineup. It's this need to slap labels on baseball players that blind those who think this way. I'm not sure who invented Super-Utility but I first become aware of it with the Dodgers. Cody Bellinger as a 21 year old in 2017 started 127 games split between 1B and all 3 outfield positions. He did the same in 2018 as a 22 year old with increased usage at 135 starts. In 2017... the Dodgers also had Chris Taylor 131 starts and Kiki Hernandez and 111 starts both of them started at 1B, 2B, 3B, SS and all 3 OF positions as needed. So that's three super-utility players in 2017 and the Dodgers won baseball games. In 2018... All three players were utilized the same way in this super utility role. Bellinger 135 starts, Taylor 128 Starts and Kiki made 104 starts and they added Max Muncy to the party who made 102 starts at 1B, 2B, 3B, LF and RF. Tack on Austin Barnes who tacked on 19 starts at 2B to his 61 starts at catcher... And... And... the deployment of the trade deadline addition... Mr. Manny Machado at both SS and 3B as he played where the club needed him to be... And of course... the Dodgers won baseball games. Did the Dodgers search for players who could play multiple positions or did players just simply starting playing multiple positions by Manager choice in an effort to get the best players in the lineup at a given time based on what he has to work with? I don't know but it worked and it starts by ripping the labels off. Anyway... I was just having fun with the labels.

Labels Everything and everyone must have a label.

Agree 100%... Although it's more like their senses coming to the Padres and beating them with a heavy object. 😄

The Yankees can play this game. The Padres can't. If the Yankees burn their farm system down to acquire the big names (They didn't in this deal). They can in theory keep spending to keep the team productive without cheap prospects available. San Diego can't play that game. Once they burn the farm system down... without cheap young talent to bring in... they leave themselves with no other option but to keep spending and it's San Diego... they can't do it. They are not the Yankees who can play this game. There was always a bill due that they must pay now. I really have a lot of respect for BTV and grains of salt are always needed with BTV. I agree with you. This is one of those situations where the BTV numbers say the Padres won the trade big but the reality is that the Yankees won big. They got one the best hitters in the game.,, another major leaguer who can at least defensive play CF and they kept the top of their top prospects all while knowing that they can simply buy more if Jasson Dominquez is traded for a top end pitcher.

I find it interesting to compare the players the Padres currently in Washington to the players heading to San Diego from New York. James Woods alone is worth the entire package of players that the Yankees gave up for Soto... not to mention Gore and Abrams who are also high value players. Hats off to the Padres on the impressive attempt to go for it, it was certainly entertaining for us to witness. Hats off for the braveness of a poodle trying to be a Doberman for a brief moment in time. However... a poodle is a poodle and there was always going to be a bill to pay in the future for going all in. The Soto trade was just one payment, there will be more to come.

I wouldn't have a ton of interest in either of them to be honest. But if comparing Verdugo to Kepler for one year in 2024. I'd have to go with Kepler because Kepler at least had two months where he was damn near elite so the potential to be something more than an average veteran exists with Kepler. If he's back with us... Fine... but he better earn it. Statistically... If you compare Verdugo's 2023 with 2023 Twins players and what they produced statistically. I'd say Willie Castro was the closest comp to Verdugo and that's not a very good comp because Castro had more yet similar power (9 dingers in 409 PA's compared to 13 in 602 AB's, similar OBP but Castro has a lot more speed and he played a lot more positions capably. With Verdugo... you are talking about less than Castro in my opinion. If you look at the past three years of Verdugo... He's been pretty much the same player every year. 600 plus AB's every year so healthy but the same power numbers, same batting average, the same everything with only slight deviations from year to year. He has been consistently average. Yet despite being consistently average... he still got 600 AB's like the Red Sox couldn't live without him... 600 AB's like he was Mike Trout or Mookie Betts and yet Willie Castro was better. You don't commit 600 AB's to average. I just don't waste my time with average veterans... I have no interest in giving average veterans 600 AB's when those average numbers can be reproduced by somebody in the raffle drum that is loaded with players that nobody has heard of and therefore never talked about because they are average players blocked by average veterans getting 600 AB's. Players like Willie Castro for example.

A rose a rayna!!!

Spot on It is nearly impossible for the Twins to replicate what they did on the mound in 2023. They could sign Yamamoto and the pitching staff still won't be as good even if it looks comparable on paper. Improving or even maintaining the pitching numbers in 2023 is going to be very hard to do because it was very very good last year. I am not saying the pitching is going to fall apart but I do think it will be less than... what we got in 2023. It will be an easier path for the Twins to cover for a pitching downtick by making improvements to an offense that has plenty of space to improve. Another great post from Doc.

Santana isn't a Twin without the Rule 5 draft. Not drafting him directly is a technicality. #57 should be retired. Johan Santana should be number 1 on this list by such a margin that #2, 3, 4 and 5 are not even close. Shane Mack should be 6, Corbett 7, Pressly 8, Salas 9 and Wayne #10 because Santana gets the first spot and the next 4 places for proper perspective.

You have hit the nail on the head. Correa and Buxton performing like Correa and Buxton SHOULD perform are indeed the two biggest questions entering 2024 and the two biggest solutions for 2024. Those two performing like they SHOULD perform would be bigger for the organization in 2024 than any free agent or trade acquisition made this off-season. We got two huge players in-house that can cure a lot of what ails us.

14 Different starters started for the Marlins in 2023. 31 different pitchers threw the baseball for the Marlins in 2023. 20 Different hitters stepped to the plate for the Marlins in 2023.

A championship core... comprised of X amount of players is only a championship core if they perform like a championship core. Correa and Buxton did not earn this designation last year. We will see who steps up in 2024. We have multiple candidates with the potential to help us bring one home.

This post is pure reality. For those who are still trying to compare 5 names in the rotation last year with 5 names for the rotation this year. May I strongly suggest reading the above post. Paddack may or may not stay healthy. Lopez may or may not stay healthy, Ryan may or may not stay healthy, Ober may or may not stay healthy. Lopez, Ryan, Ober and Varland may pitch better than last year or they may pitch worse than last year but I'm willing to bet that that none of them will pitch the same as last year. Add as many good arms to the 40 man because we are going to need 9-10 of them to get through the season. Don't add bad arms to the 40 man because we are going to need 9-10 of them to get through the season. Paddack is a good arm. Bundy is not a good arm. There is no Paddack dilemma.

Great Post I don't believe most people understand the churn that is going to take place. You clearly do.

Other than this sentence... I agree with you. Small Portion? LOL 😁 How shocking... the Twins have a financial guidelines to adhere to. If revenue wasn't a consideration... just go get Ohtani and Snell and Yamamoto. Go get them all. 😉

Sometimes in life. You are asked a question. Sometimes you answer that question honestly. Every single time... honest answers are punished by us. Once again, we don't disappoint with amazing consistency. Y'all want the truth. Y'all demand the truth so you can trash it and beat it to a bloody pulp... which of course leads to non-answer answers... actually it leads to lies and manipulation because that is what we are OK with. We have an article here that could have easily been titled. Why didn't they lie to us? Or Twins front office was honest with us and just look at the damage.

If folks do what I suggest. IF they reproduce trades as they happen. They'll see it. If they don't. They won't see it.

Oh Yeah... That's the type of bat I'd like to see the Twins add. I've heard the rumors... Sorry... Rumours with it involving Toronto. I've heard the rumours of Bichette and Vlad Jr as possible trades. Don't understand why Toronto would move either of them... perhaps moving money for a run at Ohtani... but Oh Yeah... Vlad Jr. is the type of bat I want but we probably couldn't fit him into the budget. What could you give them in return? When I look at that Jays roster... Offense is the primary need and offense is what they would give up.

baseballtradevalues should never be considered as anything other than what it is. Imperfection in an imperfect world. However... before you dismiss it. Next trade that happens... reproduce it in BBTV and the value won't be that far off. Each trade that happens... reproduce it. You'll be surprised how frequently the values align. BBTV is pretty impressive. I was my usual skeptical self originally. Now... I frequent the site. BTW... I agree Jeffers won't get us Burnes because Milwaukee doesn't need Jeffers. Jeffers Value though would net Burnes.

I read that Arozarena was being shopped. Contact, Power and Speed. 3 Years of Control. That's the type of bat that I'd like to add. Jeffers and Canterino for Arozarena? BBTV says the numbers work.