Riverbrian

61 Starts with the Twins. I have only missed a couple of them. There are two things that those 61 starts have taught me. 1. I have no idea what makes his fastball special but it appears to be special. 2. There is no way you can watch his 61 starts and not come away with some confidence in his ability. He's a good pitcher who had a bad stretch last year. Injury caused the bad stretch? I don't know but it was a bad stretch. His ERA was 2.98 before the bad stretch. Before the bad stretch - ERA's On June 22nd last year Gray - 2,56 Ober - 2.83 Ryan - 2.98 Lopez - 4.40 Varland - 5.30 If it wasn't for the bad stretch... we wouldn't be having this conversation. If Pablo Lopez wouldn't have pitched great post all-star break and so superbly in the playoffs... we might be having a similar Pablo Lopez conversation instead of him making top ten lists. Recency bias is an amazing thing. Baseball has ups and downs, ebbs and flows. The light goes up and down... don't you notice how the wheel goes round. Joe Ryan has earned that MLB Badge for his sleeve.

In baseball... "young" in the original post would be more based upon experience and not age. Correa is 29 with 8 years of service time. That guy is old. Ober is 28 with 2 years of service time. That guy is young. When I make my major league debut this year at age 58. I will be wet behind the ears.

Girl don't lie, just to save my feelings Girl don't cry, and tell me nothing's wrong Girl don't try to make up phony reasons I'd rather leave than never believe If this is it, please let me know

I never use the word fear because I'm afraid of it.

That's only because I'm too lazy to type additional names like Kirilloff and Wallner plus I struggle with if a dash is necessary when typing left handed and I'm unsure about the spelling of development.

The glove typically doesn't have much to do with platoon splits but I see what you are saying. It's easier to absorb struggling against left handers if the glove is saving some runs. I'm not anti-defense... I get the significance of the extra out given due to a bad defensively play or lack of range and I get the significance of the out that was taken away by extraordinary defense. However... my opinion is that the majority of balls in play are routine plays. So I believe that routineness will minimize the defensive value because it would create a huge pile of average defensive players. Again... I'm not minimizing the importance of robbing someone of a hit or that boot at a key moment but I think defense is over run by routine. Ultimately we need to use the early regular season up to the trade deadline to determine what we need at the trade deadline or if we are merely sellers, identify who we trust for the stretch run of a pennant chase in September and determine which horses we are going to go with in the playoffs. We also need to use the regular season for preparation through exposure. If someone gets hurt... can Julien play 1B. Get him prepped through some exposure. If a couple of right handers get hurt and we need Julien to face left handed pitching... get him prepped through some exposure. The glove... that gets prepped through exposure as well. I watched Julien get better last year. He started rough and was decent toward the end of the year.

As far as I can tell... Thus Far... There isn't a Julien/Kelenic comp other than young, developing and left handed. Julien produced excellent numbers against right handers right out of the gate. Kelenic fell flat against right and left out of the gate so Julien's splits are more dramatic but utilization is also much much more dramatic as well. You are right... The Twins were the absolute worst in the league with left handed hitters facing left handed pitchers. .589 OPS (29th). 187 Batting Average (30th). 21st in Plate Appearances Left vs Left with 351 and that kind of shocks me but I suppose it's a by-product by having more left handers on the roster than other clubs. I don't know if force feeding is what I'm asking for... but it could be construed that way because development and preparation for the unknown are my primary concerns and it's a short walk from my concerns to force feeding. Development is easy to understand... Preperation for the unknown is a little more complicated but it's almost as important... the Twins were inches from being down two right handed hitters entering the playoffs which would have put their backs against the wall in the playoffs by having to play a left handed hitter against left handed pitching. Force feeding them preparation for that possible moment may not solve the issue but I will certainly feel better when Julien has to face Framber Valdez because there is nobody else if he had at least faced someone like Framber Valdez... successfully or not. You never know what you need until you need it. It'll be interesting to see what the Twins do with their left handers this year. More of the same or are opportunities increased.

Getting off the splits. Kelenic is also an interesting compare and contrast with Brooks Lee. Both were highly ranked prospects. Both were promoted aggressively through the system. Differences were that Kelenic had to deal with the 2020 covid year and Kelenic was a high school draft pick while Lee entered pro ball older drafted out of college. They have similar minor league numbers at the A and AA level. Although... Kelenic really only had a cup of coffee at AA probably due to the 2020 covid shutdown which may have accelerated his timeline since he appeared in AAA the following year. A+ Kelenic - 190 PA's - .838 OPS Lee - 114 PA's - .848 OPS AA Kelenic - 92 PA's - .857 Lee - 407 PA's - .839 Once they hit AAA... Kelenic started in AAA before his call up to the majors in May. Kelenic claimed that he didn't start the season with the Mariners because he refused to sign an extension and of course a May call up does suggest the possibility of service time manipulation. To compile those 143 PA's. Kelenic did a month in AAA in April and a month or so in June after he was sent down because he wasn't very good in the majors in 2021. Kelenic - 143 PA's - 1,016 OPS Lee - 168 PA's - .731 OPS Kelenic has an additional year of AAA time in 2022 since 2021 didn't work out that well in the majors. 394 PA's with a .922 OPS. Why am I comparing them... I am certainly not claiming that a similar fast arc will crash and burn in the majors like it did with Kelenic. These are two different individuals after all and very few things are linear in the game of baseball. But... can we at least and look what happened with Kelenic who has really nothing to prove in the minors and still everything to prove in the majors. Can we at least take note that the Mariners burned two options and 1.169 years of service time with sub par play (Last year was decent) before he was basically traded to the Braves in order for Atlanta to take on the salary the Mariners were dumping via Marco Gonzales and Evan White totaling around 20 million. The Braves didn't want Marco Gonzalez. Atlanta traded Marco to the Pirates along with Cash two days later for a PTNBL.

Consistency is a hard thing to locate in baseball. If I had to guess... his splits will pinball. Who knows how his splits will present in 2024. His splits were fine last year but his splits were not good in 2022 and 2021... Small Sample Size all of them but the overall point is letting him work through it. The Mariners did and the Braves are going to continue. You are right about the Braves... they really don't have a right handed option to platoon Kelenic if they wanted to platoon him. It is absolutely fair to point out that Anthopoulus making those comments is kind of like the guy telling you that he has decided to start walking to work when the truth is that he sold his car.

He certainly did but to be fair... Kelenic didn't really hit right handers either. Both sides were a learning curve for him. I find it interesting that his favorable splits against left handers didn't happen until Seattle actually started holding him out of the lineup against left handers. Watch the proportion walk itself down. 2021 38% 143 Pa's against LH - .490 OPS 234 PA's against RH - .695 OPS 143 PA's total in the Minors 2022 32% 59 PA's against LH - .587 OPS 122 PA's against RH - .426 OPS 394 PA's total in the minors 2023 22% 92 PA's against LH - .774 OPS 324 PA's against RH - .748 OPS 43 PA's total in the minors. For comparison in 2023 The Seattle Mariners 2023 faced a left hander 26% of the time. Julien 2023 11% Freeman led all left handers in plate appearances last year and was 3rd overall so this guy is facing everyone. His percentage was 30% in 2023. It's almost like the Mariners force fed him extra lefties in the beginning and walked him down to taking some left handers away from him. I don't think I've found anything in the Curious Case of Jered Kelenic. Just interesting proportions year over year in the Kelenic saga as I renew my complaint against the extreme mothering of young Julien.

https://www.cbssports.com/fantasy/baseball/news/braves-jarred-kelenic-in-line-for-everyday-at-bats/#:~:text=Atlanta president of baseball operations,Brien of The Athletic reports. I attach this link for discussion purposes. It's a pet topic of mine. I think that young players need to develop. I don't like the extreme platooning that we do. Every case is different so case by case I understand but here is a major league GM with the opinion that "Atlanta feels that giving Kelenic regular work versus lefties will be the best way for him to improve".

I'd assume it would be like the Byron Buxton extension. Escalators based on AB's. MVP Bonuses. I think Royce is a superstar but he has had major injury issues since 2019 that should make any front office pause on the extension talk until you have a couple of years of 500 plus AB's.

I will give this team a chance to prove themselves just like I do every year. I have off-season concerns... I had off-season concerns last year and the year before that. However... no matter my concerns... it will not prevent me from giving this team and every player on it the chance to prove themselves. Including Kepler who I would have cut last June.

#1. Even if Polanco was still on the team... there wouldn't be a log jam. Even if you substitute Brooks Lee for Polanco... there still isn't a log jam. I have never seen a log jam... if I ever see a log jam... Clear your schedule for playoff baseball in October because the Twins would be bullet proof and log jams are good things. If you ever have a log jam... it's not a problem... it's a good thing. Here is how you handle a log jam. Just remove the word BENCH from your head, quit thinking about who is on the BENCH, quit saying the word BENCH, let the manager figure out how to get all of these wonderful players into the lineup and clear your schedule for playoff baseball because in order to have a log jam... all the logs have to be kicking rear end to make the manager have to think about who should be in the lineup and if you have 6 players kicking rear end for 5 positions (Yeah 5... we have the DH Spot to work with)... EVERYBODY WILL PLAY and EVERYONE WILL PERFORM so it doesn't matter who is in the lineup. You have a log jam it's all good. . If the miracle actually occurs that all 6 players stay healthy for 162 games and somehow someway all 6 players perform at all star level. Just do the math and get a good night sleep free from log jam worry. Here's the math for you: 5 Spots x 162 games / 6 players = 135 games. Oh No... Carlos Correa only plays 135 games... what a travesty. Well... it doesn't matter if Correa only plays 135 games because Mr. Farmer is playing just as well so whoever Rocco puts in the lineup in June vs the Kansas City Royals is going to be a great player. You got a great player in the field and a great player resting. WHAT'S the PROBLEM? #2. Brooks Lee is NOT HERE YET. Yes his rise through the system has been impressive. Yes he is the 18th ranked prospect in MLB. I will bet on Brooks Lee becoming a quality Twin in the future but it's important to note that Brooks Lee is NOT HERE YET. He has 706 Plate Appearances total in the Minors to the tune of an .814 OPS. He has spent 168 of those Plate Appearances at the AAA Level to the tune of a .237 BA and .731 OPS. Can we just please for the love of God... Let him show he can hit at AAA before we starting clearing logs out of the way for him and please please keep in mind two very important points. #2A. Brooks doesn't need to be placed on the 40 man roster until December of 2025. If you call him up early you will start his clock early and he will be a free agent early. You are rushing him up to the big leagues while he as a .237 BA and .731 OPS in 168 AB's. #2B. IF YOU HAVE A LOG JAM... Why do you have to call up BROOKS LEE? Correa, Lewis, Julien, Kirilloff, Santana and Farmer are all healthy and getting the job done. You can argue that they may be getting the job done but Brooks Lee is going to be better. Well if Brooks Lee is better... then you don't have a log jam... you have a player performing better than someone else and that means that LOGS are not JAMMED because the player who is not as good doesn't play as much. This is so easily solved. #3. As of right now... we don't have a DH. There is no Nelson Cruz on the roster and Buxton is telling the world that he will be playing CF. This will allow the team to rotate players through the DH position and that is good because we have the depth to rotate logs in this so called jam through the position and therefore additional AB's. #4. Kirilloff can play OF and so could Lewis. If Lewis and his agent are insistent on every day at 3B... I'd tell him tough cookies. That isn't helping the team... that's handicapping a manager in regards to putting the best lineup in the field. I'd simply point at Mookie Betts in Dodger Blue and tell him that Mookie Betts plays where ever the team needs him to play. I'd tell him that it's good for him because being capable in multiple positions will increase the number of teams bidding for his services when he reaches free agency. Instead of just the teams looking for a 3B driving up the price... teams looking for a SS, 2B and OF will also be in play and more teams interested will drive up the price and he will get paid more. Locking yourself into a single position isn't good business. Players can play multiple positions. If you don't think so... you haven't been watching players around the league move from position to position just like water flows into low spots on the ground. Flexibility is a by-product of depth or a LOG JAM. There are 8 spots outside of catcher and 11 positions players... there is not a back up for every position. Players have to be flexible if THEY WANT PLAYING TIME. If your team does not have flexibility it is because you don't have a log jam. #5. Julien did not face left handers last year. Julien was pinch hit for against left handers entering the game in the 5th inning. Don't get me wrong... I am a big fan of Julien and I absolutely hated that Julien wasn't allowed to face left handers last year. Yet... we sit here on February 15th, 2024 and there is a large group of people who seem to forget that Julien did not face lefthanders last year. I know they have forgotten this and I know that they don't seem to think it matters because they were willing to say goodbye to Polanco over log jam concerns and have Julien ready to go for 162 games. #5A. If it turns out that Julien can't hit lefthanders and he isn't picking it up over time. Guess what... you will have to pour those poor stats against left handers into his overall stats. That .839 OPS will no longer be an .839 OPS when you add 150 AB's of a .446 OPS against left handers to his totals. That OPS is going to plummet to the point where some of our posters are going to wonder what happened to Julien. #6. Players get hurt. They get hurt every year without fail. They get hurt for 10 day stints... they get hurt for month stints... they get hurt for entire seasons. Thank You for your time. I'll sit back and wait for the next LOG JAM comment on Twins Daily which is sure to come in the near future.

Oops Sorry... I forgot that Farmer and Vazquez are not on the roster to pay for Hoskins based on my crazy ideas. So... Injuries? Wallner, Castro, Martin and Camargo. With Martin and Camargo as talents that possibly can produce league average and hopefully better or exchanged for someone else with options remaining.

Exactly. What I can't get out of my head is... If we get what I believe Correa, Buxton and Lewis SHOULD DO next year. Imagine the lineup if you add a Hoskins for example to it. For example purposes... I kept Polanco because I don't think we should have let him go. Julien DH Lewis 3B Polanco 2B Hoskins 1B Buxton CF Kepler RF Correa SS Kirilloff LF Jeffers C Injuries? OK... We still have Wallner who can be mixed in for pretty regular playing time even if everyone stays healthy, Castro who can play every position, Farmer across the infield so they can both get regular AB's and Vazquez plus the replacements in AAA that are starting to bubble up. But... If you go into the playoffs with that lineup healthy with Correa, Lewis and Buxton doing what they are capable of. That lineup will compare with what the Rangers used to bash their way to title overcoming injured so-so pitching. That type of lineup can overcome a downtick from the pitching staff and I believe the downtick is coming... regardless if Desclafini is on the roster or not.

Good Post... No argument from me On Vazquez: I understand why they did it. A. Catching is always an over pay in terms of offensive production anyways. B. Vazquez has typically been a better hitter in years past in comparison to what he delivered for us last year. C. Jeffers was coming off a not so impressive year so confidence in Jeffers was probably not as high it could be. D. I assume that we had money earmarked for Correa that could be spent once he signed with the Giants. However... When it comes to catching... I have never waivered from the opinion that you develop it from the ground up and avoid paying the price to sign it or trade for it because Catchers are always expensive over pays that don't play every day and managers will sacrifice offense for defense at the position. And if you are able to develop a catcher like we have done with Jeffers. I'm ok trading it away because other teams will over pay for it and you keep production line chugging so you can trade the next over valued catcher away. Catcher production can keep your organization stocked if you can produce it. On Hoskins: Yep... The bigger they are... the harder they fall. Injuries and poor performance with bigger contracts are a bigger problem because you are putting one big egg in that basket. However... when it comes to what we are talking about. The odds are better with that one big egg not laying an egg and if they do lay a Robinson Cano sized egg... that level of expected production wasn't going to be replaced anyway and you are back to the same discussion. Are you better off with Prato performing average or below average or Adam Frazier performing average or below average. I'll always go with the guy who can be sent down if they don't at least play average who can get better... over the guy who can't be sent down, won't be back next year, most likely won't get better over time and plays every day, taking the team down with him.

Solid post. No argument from me. I can understand why each player was brought in... Why some are allowed to hang around is another question or shall I say concern.

Great post as usual. Being a GM is a tough job and I'm not willing to hang them for the decisions that they make... after all sometimes these 1 year guys have good years and are worth the money. However... the failure rate has become high in my opinion and the most simple thing that you can do is not let them double down on the mistake. Spending the money is a mistake but the money spent can't hurt you unless you make the bigger mistake of letting the money spent mistake step to the plate continuously or take the mound continuously. The bottom line to me is pretty simple. A vet on an expiring contract has to perform at the very least average because you can find at least average or close to average waiting in the wings below. Agreed on the short side Platoon. The true short sider (Garlick for example) is a waste of a roster spot. In the case of Farmer... I'll bet anyone money that he will face more right handers than left handers this year. You can set up these pretty platoons in the off-season... they will be blown apart before April is over due to injury or poor performance... and in order to keep the platoon integrity you are signing Luplow and signing Luplow over promoting Larnach for example because of short side splits is just going to kill Larnach.

I've said this before and I'll say it again. The Twins starting rotation was unusually healthy last year and the healthy arms all performed pretty damn good. I believe we are not going to have that kind of health again and I'll be surprised if we will have that type of consistent quality performance again from the healthy so therefore... it doesn't matter if we added Corbin Burnes to the rotation... the collective will not be as good as it was last year no matter how good it looks on paper. The starting rotation will fall in comparison with last year no matter what we do... the question is how much. That 3.75 ERA will be nearly impossible to replicate. It is the offense that we had the chance to improve this off-season to make up the difference. You can earn a playoff spot with offense. You get to the playoffs a variety of ways... Yes you can get there by pitching but you can get there with offense... It is best to have the combo but... you can get to the playoffs a variety of ways. Last Years Playoff Teams were ranked (ERA): #1 - Brewers - #23 OPS #4 - Blue Jays - #11 OPS #5 - Rays - #4 OPS #6 - Twins - #7 OPS #7 - Orioles - #13 OPS #8 - Astros - #5 OPS #12 - Phillies - #6 OPS #13 - Dodgers - #2 OPS #15 - Braves - #1 OPS #16 - Marlins - #19 OPS #18 - Rangers - #3 OPS #20 - D-Backs - #17 OPS The Top 7 Offenses (OPS) made the playoffs. The two worst team regular season ERA's of the teams who made the playoffs are the two clubs that reached the world series. Once the small sample size of playoffs hit. Only 5 teams had a playoff team ERA under 4.50 and one of those teams only played two games (Jays). Phillies 2.20, Jays 2.81, Twins 3.40, D-Backs 3.49, Rangers 3.83... that is the regular season ranked teams #12, #18 and #20 included in that top 5. Only 5 teams had a playoff team OPS over the Major League Average. One of those teams only played two games (Brewers). Phillies .821, Rangers .792, Astros .776, Brewers .767, D-Backs .734. The D-Backs are the only team from that group that wasn't an elite hitting team going in. Numbers can be presented many ways to support a point and there is always a lot more to the story. This is a down and dirty way to support my point that there are many ways to reach the playoffs. In the quest to make the playoffs... Offense can get you there so my belief that the pitching staff will not be as good this year isn't a death sentence. The offense not hitting or making up the difference just might keep you out of the playoffs. Is it too late to get Polanco back? 😄

It's hard to justify 8 million for Adam Frazier when the Orioles have a stable of young prospects who can produce the same or better. It's hard to justify 3 million for Elvis Andrus when Zach Remillard can produce the same. It's hard to justify 9.5 million over two years for Jace Peterson when Jordan Diaz can produce the same. It's hard to justify 7 million for AJ Pollock when Dominic Canzone can produce the same It's hard to justify 7.75 million for Jurickson Profar when Daza or Goodman can produce the same. It's hard to justify 7.5 million for Wil Myers when the Reds have about 75 players down on the farm who can out produce him. And of course... It's hard to justify 11 million for Joey Gallo when Matt Wallner produces much better or a Larnach produces the same. The prospects listed above for purely example purposes are not big name prospects. In a nutshell... it isn't hard to replace what a poor performing vet on a one year deal produces and poor performing vets on one year deals is something that happens frequently. Too frequently in my opinion. I'd rather shop the higher end of free agency with bigger contracts and have the money for those bigger contracts because of more roster spots available to those making the minor league minimum. These 7 to 11 million dollar deals add up. Remove a couple of them and you have cleared actual money to be spent on something bigger and better. Vazquez, Farmer, Descalfini and Santana are 23 million this season. Jorge Solar cost 14 million. Rhys Hoskins cost 17 million. I think it's possible that we would be better off giving a couple of prospects like Miranda, Camargo and Varland the chance to be just as good and having the extra money to upgrade from Santana to Hoskins. It's debatable I know... there are no guarantees in this game but I am certainly of the opinion... that one of the biggest hamstrings to any organization... is that 5 to 10 million dollar one year deal vet that falls flat on his face. If a young player is absolutely worse than the under performing vet... try someone else. The under performing vet is a setting a low replacement bar.

I can't say this and bang the gavel down but in my opinion. Those days are gone. Young players are getting more opportunity and getting the job done. A player that gets the job done making the minimum with years of control has become way to valuable. There will always be an exception for the Juan Soto types but the days of Gleyber Torres for the rental of a Chapman are gone. No way Adam Eaton fetches that return anymore. I wish the Angels would have traded Ohtani last year just to see the return for the rental of the best player in baseball. Anyway... I think the value of prospects is at another level these days. In my opinion of course.

2022 happened. Nick Gordon was a good major league baseball player that year. 2023 also happened and he clearly struggled (at a doesn't deserve to be in the majors level)... but let's be clear that wasn't 162 games. Injury took away any chance to fix it. I'd also like to suggest that the presence of Castro doesn't mean there is no room for Gordon. There is always room for a decent player who can play multiple positions on any team. Saying we got one of those guys is just plain short sighted. To me the issue with Gordon is the combination of burning up his options before putting a major league uniform and not being the type of player who performs clearly and obviously at a level higher than other players who have actual options. When you burn up your options... the egg timer goes off and starts ringing. he no longer has the time to find himself in the majors. You can't send him down to the minors so he has to better RIGHT NOW. The trade to Miami was probably a good thing for Nick because it buys him a little more time and I hope it goes well for him. Of course if it goes well for him... it will allow us to second guess the deal in hindsight... which of course we will do. When it is all said and done... I understand why the trade was made. My positive thoughts of Nick Gordon will be full credit for his performance in 2022 which was above average. My negative thoughts will be how I attach him to a group of what I consider a bad draft and development stretch of 1st round picks that contributed either nothing or just a little bit to our team. A group that set our franchise back and became. That group contains Wimmers, Michael, Stewart, Jay, Larnach (Yes I'm including Larnach because he could be the next out of options Nick Gordon next year), Cavaco and Sabato. Our first rounds from 2010 to 2020 can't be looked at favorably and Gordon was right in the middle of it.

Instead of saving a roster spot for a stretch reliever. How about stretching out all of the relievers from one inning stints to two inning stints. There is a large tract of land in between a one inning assignment and a 4 inning assignment for a relief pitcher. Those are not the only two options for relief pitcher utilization... yet they seem to be. It's Ok to think outside the box. The decision for all bullpen spots should be based solely upon who hangs zeroes and that is it. There is no hiding of bullpen arms. If you talk yourself into rostering a lesser pitcher in the name of inning eating or stretch relieving or whatever you call it... you are making a mistake. If you have to hide a pitcher from leverage.. if you have to save a pitcher for blowouts. You are wasting a roster spot.