Riverbrian

Based on early season utilization. Solano was the short side 1B option for Joey Gallo. I have no idea what they talked about in the office but based upon utilization. Solano was handcuffed to Gallo originally. Julien wasn't on the roster yet. Farmer was handcuffed to Gordon. Now by the time Julien arrived... Context and performance had Solano getting AB's against all hands by playoff time eventually he would settle back to short side. I wish I had your faith that they will give Julien a shot in 2024.

That you didn't agree... On that we agree. I do appreciate your attempt to think like the front office thinks... I try to do that as well. The Twins clearly set up the roster for platoon utilization. This was their plan and they are not alone... The Giants and Dodgers are a couple of other teams that platoon at the extreme level of the Twins. However... in the end. The careful off-season planning of a lefty handcuffed to a righty didn't last long. The opening day roster plans were blown a part before April was done. Solano the off-season planned short side platoon guy ended up with the third most AB's on the team. Castro the 26th guy on the opening day roster was 4th in AB's. Castro got 114 AB's against lefties despite a .636 OPS against those left handers but at least he could swing from the right handed batters box when producing that. All of these best laid off season plans to have a lefty here and a righty here are blown apart quickly as soon the injury train leaves the station. Yet through it all... no matter if takes adding Jordan Luplow to the roster... it was the young left handed hitters with entire futures in front of them who remained punished by strict platooning consistently like the world falls apart if they are allowed to face Sean Manaea. Bottom Line: If Julien can hit... he will hit both arms. If he has to protected against lefties. He isn't ready to replace Polanco. If he isn't allowed to face lefties... he will never be an adequate replacement for Polanco. He will just be some guy who hits better than other role player options.

Understood... However... I am saying that HE WILL be doomed to be platooned forever if they continue to platoon him as violently as they did last year. First clarification: I love Julien... I'm a huge fan and please understand that I don't mind platooning starts based on the lefty/righty matchup but when he is yanked in the third inning because Joey Wentz enters the game or god forbid yanked before he even gets an AB because the Giants threw a RH opener for the first inning... you are just making the prophecy self fulfilling. The reason you platoon is for an advantage... you don't platoon because the Right Handed hitter is guaranteed to get a hit while Julien is guaranteed to make an out. Yes the platoon advantage is real but we are talking about an advantage that ranges from slight to large based upon the participants. This guy hits .230 vs. a lefty and this guy hits .200 vs a lefty. Playing that advantage card in the third inning is a violent platoon and it will cap his development at Joc Pederson at best. If we are talking about the end result being Joc Pederson... trade him now to maximize the value you get in return and for the sake of his career. As I say that... I don't want Julien to go anywhere... I think he is a fantastic young hitter. Let him hit. Now... if the game is tied in the ninth and Josh Hader is on the mound and you want to bring in Solano for him... that makes sense. Go ahead. Very few would argue. Yanking him with a 5 to 1 lead in the third inning is just sealing his fate and handicapping his career. You say 2025... Well what is preparing him for the eventual taking the chains off in 2025? Or worse yet? What is preparing him for the very real possibility that there isn't a right handed compliment for him due to injury in 2024 come playoff time. What if your right handed complement suffers bi-lateral leg weakness the last week of the season and all of sudden you need Julien to face that big bad lefty in the PLAYOFFS!!! Or Kirilloff or Wallner. We were really close to needing a regular season starved left handed hitter to face left handers in the playoffs last year with both Correa and Lewis injured at the end of the season. If Correa or Lewis were not able to go in the playoffs you are down two right handed hitters. Now what? Julien, Kirilloff and Wallner were all starved during the regular season. I'm not anti-platoon... I am anti absolute strict adherence to the platoon as we demonstrated last year. Development is critical... sitting someone against a perceived weak point is not development. 48 Plate Appearances is not "for good reason".

That's it then... the die has been cast at age 24. If that's the case... trade him now. His value will never be higher.

Yeah but I'd contend that performance volatility can't be avoided... now even if you find a consistent player in regards to performance that can be banked on... health is also volatile. In the case of Polanco, 110, 121, 82, 125, 115, 115 are his OPS+ from the past 6 season. 82 was the covid year. His performance has been pretty stable... his health recently has become unstable. Could Polanco be worth a 50 million dollar contract? I'd bet against it but he'd be close if he can stay healthy enough for 500 AB's and just produce his career average offensively. Anyway.,. You need to take more bets... you need to diversify that portfolio. As far as relying upon your people's assessments. I do rely on them... that is what they are paid to do and they know a lot more than I... but... I'd want my people to know and understand that those assessments are very hard to etch in stone because of that volatility. All teams make mistakes in regards to talent assessment so I'm not knocking them.... but those people are the same people who thought Joey Gallo was a good idea. Those same people better be recommending a diversified portfolio. 😉

Rocco and Cody Pirkl took all the fruit from me.

Riverbrian should not juggle. He tried twice and 3 oranges were bruised.

I often hear of these log jams. I have NEVER seen one. Every year... people talk of log jams... I have never seen one. It doesn't matter... there are multiple channels with shows about Bigfoot and they stay on the air due to audience support. If an actual log jam actually occurs... it would be a good thing. All teams should strive for log jams. I've never really seen one though. Polanco and Julien floating on the same river... what are we going to do? Quickly sound the alarm... everyone come a running... bring axes, chain saws and portable wenches. Let's get all of those eggs into one basket as quickly as possible.

We utilize mutual options at my house to decide what ends up on our walls. Pictures, paintings, Metal flower art, things like that. My wife always goes first and I agree.

That is correct. My post was more philosophical than Polanco specific... although... I clearly used Polanco specifically in my philosophy.

This is a great post so I'm not knocking it... however... a couple of things. 1. The calculus should NOT involve assessments of anyone in the spring when you have an entire year of data in 2024 yet to come before you have to decide. 2. In my opinion... the decision to offer a qualify offer to Polanco should probably have more to do with... how do the other 29 teams feel about the player. Not so much with how potential replacements in house are doing. The question of weather he can be replaced internally cheaper is a consideration but not the main one. After 2024 concludes and if you feel that any team will offer Polanco a contract valued over 50 million in free agency. You offer him a QO regardless of how Julien and Lee are doing because... you will get the draft pick compensation if he signs with the Pirates on 3 year 51 million dollar deal. If Polanco decides to turn down the Pirates and take the QO. OK... not a huge deal regardless of how potential replacements are doing because it's only a one year deal and you still get a good player along with with those replacements who are also doing great.

I agree with you completely. Options are huge, they are overlooked by many of us mortals yet options have to be a primary factor in roster management and perhaps more of a consideration than who is better and who is worse... providing there isn't a huge whose better whose worse difference. Lee has to be Lewis good to bust through the food chain. You can't stash Polanco... You can stash Lee. If you are comfortable moving Polanco because of Lee. OK... Who is behind Lee when you need someone behind Lee? Not just the options... Brooks Lee isn't even on the 40 man yet and isn't required to be on the 40 man until December. Placing Brooks on the 40 man roster for 26 man deployment requires a leap frogging of players on the 40 man like Miranda and Severino. If Lee leap frogs them... it's quite possible that he kills them at the same time. Lee has to be Royce Lewis like good. Lee has to be much better than Polanco before you even consider moving Polanco because of the existence of Lee. Right now... He's a guy we all believe in but a guy we all believe in with only 168 AB's that were kinda OK at the AAA. We got some time.

I don't know either... I couldn't tell a Festa from a Unicycle but I do believe the Twins are doing well in development and I think we will have some guys rising to the occasion. Don't know who... it could be that Unicycle guy.

When you consider how often starting pitching goes down. I'd be shocked if any of the top 5 starting pitchers stay healthy throughout the year. Last year was incredible and I don't believe it can be repeated. In my opinion starters 6 through 10 are going to play big roles and could almost be keys to the overall success. I believe that replication of the success we had last year will be nearly impossible no matter who they bring in... if they bring in. I'm not saying it will be a huge decline but a decline none the less. That's why I'd rather focus on offensive improvement to cover the loss of ground on the mound.

How can a measurement have a pronounced difference?

If you ever want to know what a front office is thinking, If you ever want to know how the front office ranks players. The opening day roster and the opening day lineup are the front office indirectly letting you know what they think. It isn't ceremonial. The front office is telling you who they think will get the job done. If you are looking for evidence of mistakes made by a front office... you will find that evidence on every opening day roster on all 30 teams.

You simply won't find "production per dollar" in the free agent market. The simple reality of having to out bid others makes "production per dollar" naturally impossible. If production per dollar is paramount? The Twins should not be shopping in the free agent market at all.

Last Year we got 763 innings from our 5 most used starters. (Gray, Lopez, Ryan, Ober, Maeda) That's incredible. You don't see that kind of health from a MLB Rotation. Last year we needed 131 Innings from starters 6 through 8 (Varland, Mahle, Kuechel). Both 131 innings and 8 starters are incredibly low numbers beccause of how lucky we were health and talent wise last year. I do not expect that kind of good health to occur again and I don't think any of us should. If I had to make a prediction: I predict that we will need a bunch more than 8 starters to get through the season. Probably 11 or 12. I will predict that our top starters will produce around 600 innings. Starters 6 through 11 will have to produce 300 plus innings accordingly just to get through the season. I will predict that at the end of the year. When you look at the list of the 5 starters who made the most starts. It will not be the same as the top 5 starters selected for the rotation on opening day.

That's exactly what you want those young guys for. The Twins have done a great job building the overall depth of the team so if Lewis or Correa or Buxton or Polanco gets hurt... the fall shouldn't be as painful. Now that we have depth... We need bigger and better at the top end of the hitting spectrum to make the team better. It's much better to turn to a Miranda instead of Luplow when the need arises.

They still need as much offense as possible in the lineup. I expect Royce Lewis to man the majority of 3B. Polanco playing 3B when he can't is not a terrible plan.

When sub-points are made to support a position those sub-points can send the discussion off the rails so let's clean this up a bit. My overall point in regards to this discussion is that we can't afford to let him go (Talent)... but I also understand that we may not be able to afford to keep him (Budget). On the Sub-Points being raised to support positions: 1. The Log Jam: If you are looking at Julien and saying no room for Polanco and therefore think it makes sense to move him (or Julien) because of some sort of perceived log jam in the infield. History should have shown you differently by now and this can't really be argued. History has taught us that injuries are going to occur. We don't know where and we don't know who so you need talent behind talent or in front of talent. When you say that Polanco has only been available 55% of the time... it may be accurate but you are making my point by saying it. The entire roster is at risk for injury so load up the 26 man and prepare for it. Lewis and Kirilloff are in the same boat. Julien is an injury risk. They are all injury risks. Staff your team with talent and Polanco can hit the ball. We have depth... we need hitters who can hit the ball. This team is better with Polanco and Julien in the same lineup. Prepare for injuries and pray for health. If Rocco has too many good players because we were blessed with unprecedented health... that would be wonderful but it won't happen and it especially won't happen if you just chuck one of your best, most consistent hitters. 2. Defense: I acknowledge that some players are better than others defensively, I acknowledge that it is better to have a strong armed dude playing 3B or SS further from 1B and I acknowledge that it better to have quicker defenders up the middle because they have more ground to cover. However... what I STRONGLY disagree with is that the wheels completely fall off if a lesser defensive player plays. If you can play on the dirt... you can play on the dirt. When I bring up Polanco at SS in 2019... it isn't to suggest that HE SHOULD play SS in 2024. I bring it up to point out that he wasn't the best defensive SS in 2019 and we still won games. The Wheels didn't come off. I bring it up to point out that the overall team was better getting Polanco's bat into the lineup with Sano, Schoop and Cron. Team context suggested he was the best SS option over Schoop, Gonzalez and Adrianaza. The overall team was better. Hitting was a major consideration. I bring it up to minimize the extreme thinking that Polanco can only play one position, that he can't play 3B. Arm Strength? Yeah... you'd love to have a cannon over at 3B especially when you have to range to your right but you'd also love to have a cannon at 2B when you have to range to your right, especially when you have to range longer distance and the ball spends more time on the ground meaning that the runner is further down the line when the ball is fielded. The ball also gets to the 3B quicker and when it does... it doesn't require a stronger arm because the ball is in your glove before the batter gets out of the box. A manager looks at his available players and places them where it makes sense. 3. Offensive Decline: Polanco is one of our best hitters and consistently one of our best hitters. It is more likely that the younger hitters decline and the fact that players do indeed decline year over year is just another reason why we need Polanco. Now... where the discussion becomes subjective is: Where do we allocate our strained resources. Many here feel that we need a starting pitcher over an offensive player. I understand why others feel a starting pitcher is our #1 need but I feel that we need a talented offensive player over a talented starting pitcher and I feel that way even with Polanco on the roster. If we trade Polanco for pitching... then I'm going to feel that we need to at least two talented offensive players because Polanco will need to be replaced. Why do I feel that way... because I feel that our pitching is guaranteed to decline next year. Even if we add Gerrit Cole to the rotation I still think our pitching is still going to decline because last year the pitching was fairly healthy and very good to the point that repeating it will be near impossible. I think we need to up the offense to compensate for the decline on the mound that is sure to come no matter who we add.

Why didn't they play Farmer instead? Was it possible that they determined the team was better with Polanco in the lineup. Why didn't they play Julien at 3B instead. Julien stayed at 2B and Polanco moved to 3B. Why didn't they move Julien to 3B and keep Polanco at 2B? Desperation? Who could have predicted an injury causing desperation?

I'm not asking him to. What's my point? He wasn't the best at it in 2019 either... We still won because the rest of the team was pretty good and they were pretty good because they hit the ball collectively as a group. Polanco and Arraez in the same lineup made us better and neither played their natural position of 2B and it was good for us. I have no idea if he can play SS in 2024. I don't care but I'm reasonably certain that he can play baseball beyond 2B if needed and I'm reasonably certain that we are a better team with Polanco in the lineup wherever that may be. Anyway... This is my fault for mixing two discussions into one. My point in this thread is that the Twins found away to get Arraez into the lineup in 2019 because he was hitting the ball and how they did that is pretty interesting and here we are in 2023 and we have posters who watched Arraez move around and think that Polanco and Julien can't. To bring this back to the original discussion... If you can't move Arraez around... he gets sent down because Schoop was the guy at 2B.

Not much of a chance. 2023 would have been a great year to give Baker an extended run in consideration of the Cardinals performance last year. Same goes for Cabbage in Anaheim. They played a lot of veteran players who didn't play very well instead. Busch... is a little more understandable because the Dodgers had a lot of young options to try.

You are making some great points. I think Arraez is a very good comp for Altuve. Arraez was 22 and the 17th ranked Twins prospect in 2019 the year he got his chance when Nelson Cruz hit the DL. Neither were bonus babies. The differences between the two are: 1. Houston wasn't great when Altuve made his debut while the Twins were pretty damn good in 2019. 2. The Twins moved Arraez all over the diamond to keep him in the majors and I appreciate that they did that. Luis didn't take the starting 2B job in his first year. That job belonged to Schoop at the time. If they didn't move Arraez around... He would have found himself back in AAA because Schoop was the starting 2B. Arraez played 49 games at 2B, 21 games at LF, 17 Games at 3B, 8 games at SS and 5 at DH. I am in another discussion right now where people are telling me that Polanco can't play a position other than 2B and therefore we must trade him because of Julien and they are telling me that Polanco's defense isn't adequate at other positions. We won 101 games in 2019 with Polanco at SS and Arraez playing LF, 3B and SS.