Riverbrian

Great post Roger! You are spot on and if you are able to convince someone with your words (harder than it should be)... unfortunately there are 100 others that didn't hear or care to listen to what you just said. They will continue to look at DMA rankings, claim Minneapolis is 15th! and use that information to support a false narrative attacking the club for not spending 200 million a year on players. Cleaning up this false narrative is like trying to get all of the ice off of Lake Bemidji in January. REGIONAL sports network... REGIONAL! Beyond the city limits, Beyond the Designated Market Area. REGIONAL! There is a reason that Baltimore fought tooth and nail to keep the Expos out of Washington DC. There is a reason that the MLB baseball agreed that the Nationals would be broadcast on the same network that the Orioles broadcast on with the Orioles getting 77%. That way the Orioles still get revenue from DC and Northern Virginia. There is a reason that Seattle absolutely does not want a major league team in Portland. There is a reason that Atlanta will be against Nashville getting a franchise. There is a reason that San Francisco didn't want Oakland in San Jose. There is a reason that games for the Cubs, White Sox, Brewers, Cardinals, Royals and Twins are blacked out in IOWA. REGIONAL sports networks are REGIONAL... they are not just broadcasting to the 300,000 people in Cincinnati. A REGIONAL sports network... is going to extend beyond the Cincinnati borders, beyond the designated market area of Cincinnati. Cincinnati also gets Columbus, Louisville and Lexington. The Twins get Sioux Falls, Fargo, Rochester and Duluth. Anyway... I'm just adding to what was an excellent post by you.

There is no way to prove this statement unless Joe Ryan was traded. However... IMO... If traded... I think those who are under valuating Joe Ryan would surprised and happy with the return.

OK... Just double checking. Your post seemed to suggest collusion this off-season.

I wonder how the shredder did predicting Jeffers year in 2023 after 2022 and 2021? 😉

I can bend it... I'm very dense.

I'm not that concerned about people sitting in a room and creating a top ten list. Although... the presence of Yanier Diaz on the list after one season suggests that Jeffers may have been glossed over. However... I am more concerned if he is properly rated by his direct supervisors. Vazquez - .598 OPS Jeffers - .858 OPS Despite a rather large .260 point OPS canyon between the two. Based on utilization - Jeffers never really over took Vazquez for playing time until the playoffs. The season started with Vazquez starting 2 games out of 3. Jeffers was able to earn the trust of the manager for 50-50 utilization and no more despite a .260 point canyon. April: Vazquez - 61 AB's and Jeffers - 37 AB's May: V - 51 and J - 38 June: V - 48 and J - 48 July: V- 51 and J - 38 August: J - 65 and V - 54 September: V - 58 and J - 56 He won't make the top ten until our manager plays him like he belongs in the top ten.

If 2022 Jeffers shows up I will agree with you. However, if Jeffers actually does what you are asking for the next 4 or 5 years... He would be the best catcher in baseball if he delivers.

Collusion?

LOL... I wasn't thinking quadrilatically. Just wanted down and dirty just to express that the kids are alright. Joe Ryan... faced 672 batters last year. K's, BB;s and HR's added up to 263. FIP removes those other 409 in play events because a ball in play is a bit of a wild card. It attempts to take as much luck out of the equation as possible. I still like WHIP so much better. It may not take the luck out of the equation but it does express how lucky those luck events are by the limitation of baserunners. But Yeah... Making the Minimum! That's huge value.

I lose track of the boundaries from time to time.

I'm not even going to be greedy with him. If he can just produce his career averages... It would be a needed boost to our overall. 25 dingers... .820 OPS would be just fine with me.

Ryan threw a 112 pitch complete game shutout against Boston on June 22nd last year. His ERA was at 2.98 at that point. Over the course of his next 6 starts (32 innings total)... his ERA ballooned to 4.43. In the process of giving up 31 runs over those 32 innings... he was lit up by the Braves, Orioles and Cards. He made 29 starts for us. A bad 6 start stretch is the main reason his ERA is being questioned. Was he pitching through an injury during that time?

I would trade Kepler for Manoah. I would have cut Kepler in June so it would be like getting Manoah for nothing.

I am 100% opposed to set lineups and I am 95% opposed to slotting so it's almost a set lineup. A hitter can be moved from the leadoff spot to the 7th to the 3rd spot to the 9th spot over the span of 4 game and it should not cause psychological issues nor should it cause a change in approach because approach because the approach should be to make hard contact. If a manager does not move his lineup around based on hot/cold or pitching matchups... then the manager is ignoring data that suggests that he should and he would be ignoring data just for consistency sake and what does consistency get you in regards to batting order. You want your best hitters at the moment at the top of the lineup. Does it make sense to leave a player in the leadoff spot in the midst of 2 for 25 slump? He can move down in the order and move back up when he starts breaking out of the slump. Does it make sense to leave a batter in the 8th spot for consistency if your 8th hitter has hit 4 home runs in his last 6 games. He can move up in the order and then move back if he cools down. Does it make sense to leave a guy in the leadoff spot when he struggles against sliders and Jacob Degrom is on the mound. Does it make sense to leave a guy in the 8th spot when he kills the off-speed pitch when Sandy Alcantara is the starter. Players produce that type of matchup data... I'm sure the Twins track it. If the lineup doesn't adjust to matchups... the data is being ignored in the name of consistency. What does consistency get you? If you move hitters around in the order... that becomes the new norm... the new consistency.

I don't do the 1,2,3,4,5 thing when labelling starters. These two can get people out so I'll let others slap numbers on them. I like them both and I am really glad that they wear a Twins uniform. If people are under-rating them... they should stop doing that. The average MLB pitcher in 2023 tossed a 4.26 ERA with a 1.31 WHIP. Ober has 292 innings with a career ERA of 3.63 with a 1.10 WHIP Ryan has thrown 335 career innings with a ERA of 4.05 and a 1.10 WHIP. They both pitch for the minimum compensation.

It's really hard to make a switch like this if you are concerned about players remaining in designated boxes. Once you take them out of the box. You see how many EFFECTIVE innings he can give you.

The Happ's, Shoemakers, Bundys and Archers. Signing pitchers like that Is a neon sign letting everyone know that you have failed to develop pitching.

Every off-season. The Waiting is the hardest part.

I'll admit that I don't recall much from 20 years ago. I was in my thirties and groggy from hauling my kids around to hockey practice. But... I'll stop short with Capable. "More than Capable"... is probably worth a discussion on a different thread. On Terry Ryan's biggest sin... I agree every day of the week. And I'll competitively extend to you that not only did we not get anything for his prospects in trades... we didn't get anything for the prospects that put a major league uniform on either... you know... guys like Mohr or Allen. (Insert Emoji that sticks tongue out at you)

I'm not sure but it isn't high enough on the wall to avoid contact with my head.

This is morphing into a different discussion than what I replied to but that's ok. I originally responded to what I thought was a good post by you on Polanco and the qualifying offer. I simply was saying that the decision on Polanco and the qualifying offer is made at the end of the year. How Polanco does in 2024 will provide the information needed to make the QO Decision and I think the possibility of draft pick capital is perhaps the primary reason for if you do or don't regardless of who is coming up from behind him. This conversation seems to have switched into the same conversation that is happening on multiple threads. Is what coming up behind him sufficient enough to replace Polanco right now. I can understand trading Polanco for budget reasons because every team has a budget... I can even understand trading Polanco for pitching... I disagree but can at least understand it. But... I'm skeptical of any conversation that involves clearing Polanco out of the way for others who might be what he has been. Just think about Jose Miranda... those same guys who make the assessments that leads to roster decisions... those same guys felt Jose Miranda was our starting 3B out of spring training last year based upon his performance the year prior. Is Julien another Miranda? I don't know... let's find out but I'd rather find out before you toss Polanco out of the way. On Kepler... Well... I'm not allowed to talk about Kepler... It would be hypocritical. I would have released him last June. It's up to Kepler to be the Kepler that he is.

Severino and Prato are not logs yet. They are safely stashed in our minor league system... when they get the call and perform at the major league level and become players who must play or the team is weaker... they can be a log. If Severino and Prato become logs and cause a log jam because we got a 26 man roster over flowing with talent... that's great news for us because we want a log jam. If Severino and Prato are logs... We got log jams all over the place including the starting rotation. Casey Blake had 68 AB's for the Twins... He shouldn't be blocking anyone. Cuddyer got OF work because the log jam of Jones, Hunter, Mohr, Keilty, Buchanan, Restovich and Ryan were either not playing well enough or not healthy enough to actually play. Dustin Mohr had .782 AB's with the Twins before he was traded to the Giants for a player to be named later. Chad Allen had 773 AB's before he was released after an injury. Neither player produced over 100 OPS+ during their time with the Twins. I'm all for them getting the opportunity to be something but they never became something. Bobby Kielty was in such a log jam that he had to be traded for another log in Shannon Stewart.

I sure hope that Julien has a career that matches Ken Griffey Jr. As a 19 year old in 1989... Ken Griffey Jr. had a .610 OPS against left handed pitching. 797 against right handers. He had 118 AB's against LH and 377 against RH As a 20 year old in 1990... Ken Griffey Jr. had a .805 OPS against left handed pitching. .872 against right handers. He had 238 AB's against LH and 438 against RH. At no point in his career was Ken Griffey Jr. held to 40 AB's against left handed hitting. Henry Cotto was not needed to pinch hit for Ken Griffey.

I'd argue that a good chunk of the players that you list were merely branches. Cuddyer was an infielder in the minors... who ended up playing more OF because that is where they were short on logs. Mohr wasn't a log... Allen wasn't a log. 😉