Riverbrian

I choose to optimistic... If Randy Johnson can do it at age 29... so can Bailey Ober!!! 😉 BTW... You quoted Oscar Wilde "With Age comes wisdom...". Keep in mind that Oscar Wilde was 125 years old when he said that very thing while trying to convince someone that his cat was up in that tree over there. It was Emo Phillips who said "I used to think that the brain was the most wonderful organ in my body but then I realized who was telling me that".

Exactly Mick was drowned, washed up, left for dead, and crowned with a spike right through his head. Born in 1943 so he was 25 when all that happened to him. By the time he was 27... Wild Horses couldn't drag him away.

It is a HUGE year for Kirilloff. 1 Option Left He has 1 option left. Let me repeat that... He has 1 option left. If he burns that option this year. It will mean that something went wrong and that would mean he would be a 26 man decision next off-season coming off a year where things went wrong. The team has to believe in him at that point... kinda like they believed in Nick Gordon to commit to him. As we all remember with Nick Gordon... I know it was a long time ago... but as we all remember with Nick Gordon. Having to commit a roster spot to him was a high wire act. With no options remaining, the only way that he can keep the wolves away is to grab a job with both hands. Hard to do that when you can't hit lefties or hurt. Those youngsters on the farm are going to keep coming just waiting for a stumble. It's a huge year for Kirilloff and it isn't because he booted a ball against Houston in the playoffs. He needs to hit and he needs to stay healthy. It's a HUGE year for Kirilloff.

Just so there isn't any misunderstandings with my response... I've stated earlier that I'd leave Duran in the bullpen because he is one of the best in the game at what he does. We may be taking different paths to get on the same page but I think we agree. To answer your last question. If Joe Ryan gets paid more... he is determined by those offering the contract to be more valuable. Value can be assessed in many ways including replaceability. Joe Ryan may be paid more because it's harder to find a capable 180 inning guy than a dominating closer. Every team has a closer in waiting. If Duran converts to a starter. Jax or Stewart just might step into the closer role and we still have a capable closer getting the job done. Might not be as good but not as good doesn't mean not capable. Value is a funny thing but, it's pretty simple in my mind. Whatever someone is willing to pay you... that's your value and front offices are generally more willing to pay that 180 inning guy. To answer the entirety of your post. I understand everything that you are saying. Not even really arguing what you are saying. A starter who is healthy all year will impact 33 games while a reliever who is healthy all year will impact double the amount of games. Jax pitched in 71 games, Pagan pitched in 66 games, Duran pitched in 59 games (27 saves - 3 wins - 6 losses and 23 whatevers). That is why I'll never minimize the importance of ANY spot in the bullpen because a good healthy bullpen guy impacts a fairly high percentage of games. I'll even add to your leverage point. The closer role is even higher leverage than the high leverage stat because when the closer blows a lead it's game over. His teammates can't pick him up with a 3 run rally because the game is 9 innings and he just pitched the last inning sending everyone to the showers. With all that said... I understand the leverage difference and the influence of appearing in more games. However... Every Inning thrown has the potential for a zero or a crooked number. The guy who can hang more zeroes is always going to be more valuable regardless of the leverage assessed to each moment. Ryan may only appear in 33 games while Duran Appears in 60. But Ryan is going to throw 3 times as many innings and his performance in those innings is going to determine leverage for the bullpen to follow. Teams have to get through approximately 1,400 innings a season. You need to hang zeroes in as many of those innings as possible.

Age and Prospect is probably tied together in regards to what is considered the typical athletic peak. I've read articles stating that age 27 has been identified theorized as the athletic apex. I've also read articles that 27 is when Rock musicians die but Keith Richards is still with us so I'm careful to not one size fits all. However... In regards to developing a new effective pitch, improving a pitch, patching a hole in your swing... finding something that makes you better. IMO... This type of improvement can happen at any age, it doesn't have much to do with athletic ability, probably more to do with mechanics and it can change a player for the better immediately. Kind of like being handed a power drill and not needing an awl anymore. I won't make any claims that this is what is happening with Ober but I wouldn't use age 29 to doubt. He can get a lot better at age 29... unfortunately at age 29 his arm will fall off shortly after. 😄

Wallner was a better Gallo than Gallo was. Wallner was what the Twins were hoping Gallo would be. What I'm about to say is not a slam against the front office... they have a really hard job and they are much better at than any of us... all teams make these types of mistakes. However, I think it is important to point out that the Twins front office didn't know what Wallner would become in 2023. If they knew... they wouldn't have spent 8 figures on Gallo. Wallner probably should have been called up sooner in 2022 instead of watching the team fall out of contention with throw away vets like Cave playing every day. It wasn't obvious to the evaluators who is better between Larnach and Wallner and Gallo but they have to evaluate and decide based on small margins of difference. It took a bit before they gave Wallner his shot. It isn't going to be obvious this year either. Wallner may struggle and Larnach might find the light switch. We don't know what Margot is going to do. Which Kepler will be swinging a bat in 2024. Go down the depth list after those 4 and ask the same question about what they will do in 2024. There is only one way to find out. Opportunity! Let the players answer it by performance. I expect Wallner to start on opening day. Come May? I'm hoping he is still here... but... if he is in St. Paul... it wouldn't be the first time that happened with a sophomore coming off a nice freshmen year. We need to look no further than Miranda to understand the dangers of assuming repeat performance. Our depth in the OF is important. We got some... Let the best man continue to play.

Pushing Money to the side. I'm sure that I give the impression that I am fearless in regards to flexibility. I am... I think it is quite possible that Relievers can be starters and starters can be relievers because it's throwing a baseball after all and these guys are good at what they do. I also think that a 2B can play 3B and an OF can play 1B because it's baseball after all and these guys are good at what they do. This may shock some but in regards to the best in the business at a position or role. I am anti-flexibility. I'm sure that Nolan Arenado can play good SS if the need arises but at 3B he is the best in the business... So lock him in at 3B. Let other guys move around. I feel the same way about Duran... As a relief pitcher... he is one of the best in the game so lock him in. Don't mess around with starting. Julien... move him wherever he is needed to get his bat in the lineup.

According to Sportrac which allows you to rank by pay per position. The Answer is 39 relief pitchers made over 6 Million - Minus two because Disco and Nick Martinez are listed as relievers and part of the 39... So 37. 39 Starters will make over 14 million this year. 77 will make over 6 million this year. And of course at the top of the pile. 6 Starters make over 35 million a year - 7 if you count Ohtani. No relief pitcher will make over 19,651,000 this year. 16 starters will - 17 if you count Ohtani. I have no idea if Duran can convert... I have no idea if Hicks will convert... but if they can. Their agents and financial advisors and bankers will be happier.

It was close but I'll give the edge to Ash because he mentioned Coconut.

When my son was younger... we'd have fun as I chased him around the room. I just kind of let him go where he wanted and I would follow behind him saying I'm gonna get you and we would laugh having a great time as he ran down whatever path was ahead of him with me following behind. Long story short... my wife wasn't happy when we ended up at the landfill. My son had to immediately take a bath when he got home and I slept in the garage for two nights. Anyway... chasing definitions around the room is going to lead us some place else. However... I'm adventurous. Disco had one good season in 2021. I think he is the definition of a so-so pitcher but let's assume that the 3 years at 36 million is a quality starter with value plummeting due to injury. Let's just focus on that make good buy low 6 million dollar contract that you mention. How many relievers are making 6 million a year? 15-Love Me - Your Serve

I agree with you and Squirrel. I can only say that It seems that my preferred use of similes, metaphors, analogies, parables often times fall short. In the case of Duran... He's a great closer. I think it's quite possible that he has the talent to be a starter. If he doesn't... he doesn't... But... If he had the ability to do both well and help the team... I think he'd choose starter because he would play more and get paid more. Also... if the Twins felt that he had the ability to do both... even the Twins would convert him to a starter because he would hang more zeroes. Yes... It does take another John Smoltz to ultimately answer the question because John is the only guy that pops into my mind as someone who was successful as a starter and then successful as a closer and then successful as a starter again.

I agree with what you are saying. No argument here... The inclusion of Max Effort into the discussion came from Ash and I was just going down the Ash Path that was mostly absent of the math of 1 inning here or 6 innings there. Yes... Physical limitations and requirements would sensibly part of the decision process. Griffin Jax might be an example of that. He struggled as a starter but has seemingly found his feet in the pen. Is that a physical limitation or requirement? Maybe shorter stints of letting the big dog eat was the key to unlocking it all. Did he just unlock his slider and just happen to be a reliever when it happened? John Smoltz was good at both roles. Dennis Eckersley was good in both roles. It's hard to say. Could Duran be a good starter if he backed it off a bit. If he was a good starter will he be as valuable as he is currently... as perhaps the best the closer in baseball. I don't know the answer to these questions but... I am reasonably certain that if he was capable of being a good starter. He would be paid a lot more. A lot More. You ask the question: Is a so-so starter paid more than a great reliever? DeScalfini is making 12 million this year. Wacha just signed for 16 million. Not many relievers are making that kind of money. Only 5 are making more than Disco is. The answer to your question is yes.

An alternate title suggestion would be "29 Major League Teams agree to let the Twins do whatever they want".

Ok Not a perfect simile however... I usually have a pretty idea what I'm going to get in a box of chocolates so Forrest Gump struggles with perfect similes as well so I'm in good company. I understand the point you are making about Max effort for shorter stints and I don't disagree. Those are the choices that confront managers when they are handing out roles. I'm saying that if the player (not the manager) is offered the choice. A. Do you want to go full max effort for 3 innings a week B. Do you want to back off a bit and be on the mound for 9 innings a week. I don't have any polling data to refer to but my guess is that most will opt to back off a bit and throw for 9 because they get to play more, compete longer in their chosen profession and ultimately get paid more. The position player who would rather play occasionally rather than be the guy they count on most every day will also be a pretty rare find. These type of attitudes may exist in the MLB landscape because on occasion I do reach into a box of chocolates and am shocked by Molasses and Coconut instead of butter cream.

Prestige and Money A reliever that prefers to remain a reliever is roughly equivalent to a position player who only WANTS 100 AB's a year instead of 500 AB's a year. In other words... if Anthony Rendon was a pitcher... He'd want to be a reliever.

You and I have learned over the years. If you are going to ask someone what is wrong. Before you ask the question. Make sure that you have recently gone to the bathroom and make sure that you are supplied with drinks and snacks.

When considering the question posed in this thread. I think it's important to consider the value difference between a starter and reliever. We live in a baseball world (created by MLB GM's value assessments) where Sean Manaea coming off a 4.44 ERA in 2023 and a 4.91 ERA in 2022 and Ryan Pressly consistently one of the top closers in baseball signed. Each signed for essentially the same years and dollar amount in the same off-season. Twins pitchers threw a total of 1,451 Innings in the 2023. Starters accounted for 922 of those innings. That leaves 529 innings for the relievers. 5 Starting pitching slots = 184 innings per starting pitcher slot 8 Relief pitcher slots = 66 innings per relief pitcher slot. Look again at what Manaea recently signed for and what Ryan Pressly signed for and it wouldn't be a stretch to theorize that the front offices are paying for innings and they should... because starters are throwing 3 times more innings than a relief pitcher throws. Sure you can argue High Leverage/Low Leverage as justification and I'll concede a value difference but I'm just going to counter that performance is important each and every inning no matter what leverage you assign to it. Next Year Joe Ryan and Jhoan Duran will be entering into the 1st year of arbitration and they are both on track to reach free agency in 2028. Between Ryan and Duran, under the scenario that each will continue to pitch like they have pitched to date. Does anybody want to take a guess on who will get rewarded more in the three upcoming years of arbitration or who signs the bigger free agent deal? I'll go first... I'm going to guess Joe Ryan will be paid more. While I love Joe Ryan, I'm a big Joe Ryan fan so I don't want to say anything negative about him... however... in my opinion... I think Duran is a much better pitcher than Joe is. Front offices are paying for innings. Arbitrators are rewarding innings. The more zero's hung... more wins. I'd like to see our best pitchers get more innings. Anyway... why you are all discussing the merits of the possibility of Duran starting. You may want to consider value to not only the team looking for zero's on the scoreboard but also consider the value to the pitcher looking for zero's on a contract.

Health Please Please Please... with sugar on top. Lewis hit the ground running requiring no adjustment to the new level of opponent. Only health has knocked him down. MLB pitching has not. With Health... It's my opinion that Lewis will be in the AL MVP conversation. I also think highly of Miranda. I Love the depth we are accumulating.

The simple act of inclusion on the 40 man roster suggests that a pecking order has been established by the front office. Helman and Prato will most likely have to wait behind Miranda, Martin, Severino and Larnach. I think it could be argued that Prato was our best hitter in St. Paul last year? Prato was better in AAA than Martin, Severino and Larnach. Actually his numbers were better than Julien and Wallner in St. Paul. If Prato produces around .991 OPS again. I think he will earn the right to budge ahead in the queue for a 26 man spot.

I should have included the word "necessarily". My fault but the sentence should have read like this. I think it has been established that increased contact doesn't NECESSARILY lead to increased offensive production. Cleveland and Washington led the league in not striking out by almost 100 less strikeouts than the 28th ranked team. Cleveland and Washington were not good offensive teams.

Rest is the X factor in what is ultimately a math problem. There are approximately 25 weeks of baseball. Duran threw 62 IP last year which is an average of 2.5 IP a week. 1.5 more innings a week will put him at 100 IP and increase the usage of the best pitcher on the staff. 4 IP every 6.5 games will get him to 100.

Both Santana and Margot K'd at nearly half of Taylor's rate. I'd say it's quite possible that the Twins front office are prioritizing K's... Less of them.

If he has that type of year. Why not pick up his option and keep him?

Very rarely do you run across the answer to a question inside of the actual question. Here are some more examples of the answer to a question inside the actual question. Why don't people like dogs that bite? Why don't people eat food that doesn't taste very good? Why do I sweat mowing the lawn when it's 120 Degrees? I'll open up the floor for anyone who would like to answer those questions.

The question comes down to proper rest. Based on usage... we can reasonably conclude that Starters after 100 pitches are rested at minimum 4 days and we can reasonably conclude that the one inning reliever typically can pitch back to back days with a day of rest on the third day. So if relief pitcher X throws 3 innings... how much rest is required. Long relief is a defined role that has been in place for decades. Availability and rest is also an issue with long relief. There are times when starters get pulled early on back to back days and one LR can't manage that. Essentially... what I am thinking about by stretching out the entire bullpen... is in theory creating multiple long inning guys. Will it work... I don't know. Just something that I've been theorizing for a long time now.