Riverbrian

Agreed... Pitching was great so at least hold serve. However... even with the addition of a good starter to replace Gray... I'm not sure that we can hold serve. When I say not holding serve... that doesn't mean the roof will cave in but I don't think we can count on the 2023 numbers repeating itself. The offense is going to need to pick up pitching slack that IMO is coming. The Dodgers fell from 1st to 13th in Team ERA from 2022 to 2023. The Astros fell from 2nd to 8th. The Braves fell from 5th to 15th in Team ERA from 2022 to 2023. It was the offense of the Dodgers, Astros and Braves that held serve. We can't hold serve because we were unusually healthy with the starting rotation in 2024. Lopez, Gray, Ryan and Ober made 119 starts last year. Lopez, Gray, Ryan and Ober were all fantastic for the most part (if you take out a real rough stretch that Ryan had). Most teams just don't get that kind of health and performance combo on the mound. Throw in Maeda's 20 and only 23 starts were made outside the top 5 once Ober replaced Mahle in the top 5. Varland, Kuechel and Mahle made 21 of those 23 start with two bullpen games. The pitching performance we had last year was off the charts and I couldn't never understand why some objected to adding offense to support it at the trade deadline. Anyway... Fast forward to today. I simply can't expect that 2023 health to smile upon us in 2024 and I can't expect two starters in the Cy Young conversation... even if we somehow maintain the health. And I say this even if we pluck Blake Snell out of Free Agency or trade for Tyler Glasnow to replace Sonny Gray. The Rangers had to build their rotation twice last year just to come up with a 3.83 ERA in the playoffs which was just enough to allow the offense to bash their way to a title. We need an offense that scares some people. Again... I don't expect a pitching collapse but in IMO... Our offense is going to have to perform better than it did last year because our pitching CAN'T perform better that what we did last year. The offense needs a big fat dangerous hitter addition to add to Lewis and the resurgence of Correa and Buxton being who they are supposed to be.

It wasn't my proposal. 👍 Although... To simplify it. Removing Sanchez and Vasquez. I don't think Kepler for Cabrera alone is an overpay. 1 year at 10M for 5 years of a starting pitcher at league minimum is a price I would pay although being out of options is a moment for pause.

To be honest... I have no idea what Camargo will bring to the table in 2024 but I am 100% committed to catcher development. Without knowing what Camargo is capable of producing (who does really and I include our front office when I say that)... I am OK moving one of our catchers to make room for Camargo in case he becomes valuable. Knowing full well that it could blow up in our face. Hitting on a young catcher is an extreme value boost that it's worth the chance. Missing on a young catcher is only half painful because they play 50% of the time at most. In order to commit to catcher development... you have to keep the pipeline unclogged. In other words you have to have a roster spot for the next generation so weather it's Jeffers in a trade for a quality starter or quality hitter or Vazquez in a salary dump to spend money on a quality starter or quality hitter... I am pro catcher trade of either. If Camargo produces (I don't know if he will). His trade value as a catcher with years of control and little financial obligation is a gold mine. I roll the dice. I rob Peter to pay Paul because Paul produces more. As for your trade idea with Marlins... I can't speak for the Marlins but I can't see them or anyone sending two starting pitchers over in a deal. I know they are well stocked but teams need to be well stocked to get through a season. You never know who will be left standing come playoff time but again I can't speak for the Marlins.

If the Marlins would trade Cabrera and Sanchez for Kepler and Vasquez. I wouldn't wait for the Marlins to finish talking before saying yes. You wouldn't even need to ask the Marlins to include Sanchez. Acquiring two starting pitchers both age 25 at the league minimum salary. Cabrera having 5 years of control and Sixto with 6 years of control. The Marlins get 1 year of a 30 Year old OF and 2 Years of a 33 year old catcher on a free agent contract with an AAV that is higher than the other 29 teams were willing to pay a year ago before a rather disappointing 2023 at the plate. 20 Million off the books that can be spent to replace Kepler. Two young controllable starters. I can't see the Marlins doing that.

I agree with you. I want a big bat addition more than I want a starter. Jeffers is one of the few players who can bring that bat in.

I have said this multiple times and I will say it again. Catchers are extreme overpays. If you are lucky enough to have a catcher with inflated high trade value. Cash him in. The Twins should be doing everything they can to become a catcher factory in order to cash in on the extreme trade value that good catchers provide. To acquire Murphy the Braves parted with William Contreras, their top prospect and a couple more prospects in the top 15. It was a steep price. Check out the current trade value of William Contreras on BBTV. The Brewers could trade Contreras back to the Braves and land their 4 top prospects in return. If the Twins wanted to acquire Contreras... It would cost us the equivalent of Jeffers and Julien. Brooks Lee by himself wouldn't be enough to get him. Ryan Jeffers would almost be enough to bring in Corbin Burnes for a year and there is your replacement for Gray. Catcher are overpays... Keep producing them. The only question is... Will Jeffers have higher value after 2024 or less value. If the answer is less. He is the player I'm moving to improve our team. If the answer is more... OK... Let's go #27. Here's to a great 2024 in a Twins uniform.

Trading Duran would depend on the return, service time, contract details and so on. I also suspect that Griffin Jax wouldn't net the return for a better starter than what Varland is right now... at least not until you trade Duran and put Jax into Duran's role so he increases his value a tish. 😉 I also suspect that Varland has more current trade value at this moment than Jax because Varland can start games and therefore throw more innings which suggests that we could get a better starter (value wise) by trading Varland compared to what you would get by trading Jax... but I'm just having fun because I know you were just using broad examples. To answer your Duran trade question broadly and absent of important considerations and special circumstances such as service time and contract. Let's just say... I was a strong advocate in support of the Rogers for Paddack deal because a quality starter is hard to get and more valuable so I guess that is my answer still to this day and it would apply to Duran as well. I'm not giving him away but for the right starter... yeah... I would. Only 9 relief pitchers are over 10 Million AAV. 45 Starters are over 10 million AAV. 17 Starters have a higher AAV than Edwin Diaz at the top of the pile. Teams need around 10 starters to get through a season. And yeah... we need even more relievers but they throw less innings. In the end... the more innings you can throw... the more zeroes you can hang... the more zeroes you can hang... the bigger your value to a club and increased value to a club leads to higher trade value for potential acquisitions should the need arise and the bigger contract that Varland can sign once he reaches free agency. 😎

Yes... You, Tony, Rodney and Doc are on to something. The decision does not have to be permanent. Where you start isn't always where you finish. I once had a tea pot that wouldn't whistle. Turned it into a nice flower planter. I once missed an exit on the interstate and I was able to avoid going around the entire world by hitting the next exit and turning around. No need to place a tattoo on Louie.

Exactly!!! Besides... While also from mythology... Who can beat a Titan? Cardinals are pretty and all but Zeus would destroy one with ease.

That is indeed considered by me and in no way will I ever downplay the leverage importance of a capable bullpen. I have and will continue to express my desire for a solid bullpen from top to bottom and I do believe that Varland could serve wonderfully in that role. However... something else that needs consideration is that high leverage for Duran and Jax does not occur if the pitchers throwing the bulk of innings of whatever leverage can't get the job done. The more innings with zero's hung the better. The starter who throws more innings can hang more zeroes and will always be more valuable. If Varland is moved to the pen... you have to replace him in the rotation with someone better than Varland in the rotation. Bundy (I always pick on Bundy) as a starter with Varland in the pen requires 140 innings of not decent in order to produce 60 innings of decent. I don't like that deal.

Starters throw more innings. Starters throw more innings. Starters throw more innings.

Exactly We have contributors who feel that Polanco should be moved because they think he is a backup. This article and others have labeled Vazquez as a 10 million dollar backup. In 2023... 49% of all AB's were handled by what other people define as backups. Since backup has very little to do with playing time because backups play a lot and have year after year. Let's be clear... what backup means. It means worse player.

Will Julien or Wallner be allowed to hit left handed pitching in 2024? Wouldn't the answer to that question be of consequence to the Mariners who might trade us young pitching in return?

I saw the "if". I also didn't read the entire thread so any context that led to a discussion of Vazquez's happiness or state of mind is going to be lost on me and your post was whe the I read of Vazquez being traded for reasons other than a trade that helps two teams is agreed upon. A. I'm upset that the Vikings lost to the Bears last night. I'm still with my Vikings this morning. Let's see what happens out of the bye week. B. I'm upset that the Vikings lost to the Bears last night. This morning I have burned all my Vikings clothing and have already purchased new Jaguars clothing and I am Jacksonville forever. C. I'm upset that the Vikings lost to the Bears last night and I am somewhere between A and B. The internet usually sees B. I am A Vazquez is?

Vazquez is upset?

I remember one at the end of the year at Coors Field. Weather it's a home run or single to left field... I almost always say Atta Boy Max to myself because he has been such a pull the ball guy. I just like seeing it because sometimes it's best to let that ball travel in a little more instead of always hitting it out front... or not pull that outside pitch to a pop up or weak grounder. Don't get me wrong... I like a 400 foot yank to right field as much as the next guy but sometimes... you got to have that other way club in your bag.

He has always been a pull hitter and a decent contact hitter that doesn't strike out a ton so the shift would have to be a problem. But... the shift changes it didn't fix much in the early part of the season... It wasn't until he started hitting the ball harder that he started correcting.

I think our disagreement is only BABIP. I don't believe it's a luck stat. I also don't think Kepler can sustain what he did post all-star break... I think we agree there. To add onto what you were saying. Only 4 players in baseball had a harder hit % than Kepler's back half of the year. Only 4 Players had a lower soft hit percentage than Kepler. Now could it be luck that Kepler got a higher percentage of meatballs during his resurgence. Maybe... but otherwise... Hitting the ball harder and hitting the ball softer less also has to be considered a BABIP factor. And swinging at crap will be a factor in hard or soft hits... Therefore... Between the Ears.

If plate discipline is Baseball IQ then yes they do. I think plate discipline is between the ears. I think you go through stretches where you start reaching at stuff you shouldn't reach for and the commentators start calling it a slump. I think getting out of a slump is between the ears. If that's baseball IQ... OK. Kep slumped for way too long and then all of sudden he stopped slumping.

Disagreements are ok... although I'm not sure why we would disagree here. Subtract his Home Runs, K's and Sacrifices, the difference between a .213 Pre-All Star break BABIP and .351 Post All Star Break BABIP is about 20 more hits on this side of the wall over 20 more AB's Pre to post. The only thing that significantly changed in his batted ball profile is his hard hit percentage which went up pre to post and his soft hit percentage which went down pre to post. They coincide in the curious case of Max Kepler. He didn't bloop and seeing eye single his way to better numbers. He started hitting the ball harder. About 35 Balls Hit Hard post all star break compared to Pre.

Some folks look at BABIP as a luck stat. I tend to look at it as a plate discipline stat... a swinging at better pitches and making better contact stat. This leads me to the assumption that higher or lower BABIP is between the ears. Hitting what the pitchers want you to hit is going to make your BABIP suffer. Punishing the pitch they didn't want to throw you will make that BABIP shine. His hard hit% went from 20% in May to 44.8% in August. What changed... No idea but the first place that I would look is in between the ears.

If those 2nd half numbers continue. He's Cody Bellinger. He would be the type of player that we can't afford to lose. If they don't continue and go back to what made me pull my hair out for 2.5 years. He would be the type of player that we can't afford to roster. I don't have to think about it much because I made my decision on Kepler back in June. I have removed the luxury of making a decision on Kepler today by making the decision yesterday because to quote the Eagles from 1974. He's "Alllll-Ready Gone... All Right - Nighty Night... Alllllll-Ready Gone".

Me neither. I will say this: Kepler had to get nuclear after the all-star break to fix it. The power was similar pre to post all star break but balls not going over the fence started finding green. BABIP went from .213 to .351 Pre All Star Break to Post 2023 Pre All Star Break: AB's - 203 BA - .207 OPS - .688 HR's - 12 HR's 2023 Post All Star Break: AB's - 235 BA - .306 OPS - .926 HR's - 12

I've often heard such things said. Contract year motivation and such. There are plenty of examples of players who turn into pumpkins after signing that big contract. Although... without researching it... I believe you will probably find Aaron Nola type down years stacked next to Sonny Gray up years. I know it is a narrative that has existed for quite some time. Yet... I'm not sure that I can dive into those waters. If true... the whole idea of it pisses me off. The suggestion that a player doesn't care, is not focused or holds back his specialness until that special year so he can put it all together when needed for that big contract. I really don't want to think of baseball players with a talent spigot that THEY can turn on at will. If that's the case... I wouldn't want a player who couldn't trouble himself to turn on the spigot for 2.5 years like Kepler did. I'm more inclined to believe that baseball is hard. Those pitchers are good... even the bad pitchers can chuck that baseball and for 2.5 years Kepler wasn't good enough.

I completely gave up on Kepler and Gallo last June. I would have released both last June for nothing. I said it then, I felt it strongly to my core and I still stand by it today regardless of the Kepler turnaround for a couple of months. . I will not act like Kepler is all of a sudden valuable. After 2.5 years of sub par play... I would have released him in June and given his job to anyone. It would be hypocritical of me to say... gotta have him now... when I would have let him go and paid him to not play.