Riverbrian

If 2022 Jeffers shows up I will agree with you. However, if Jeffers actually does what you are asking for the next 4 or 5 years... He would be the best catcher in baseball if he delivers.

Collusion?

LOL... I wasn't thinking quadrilatically. Just wanted down and dirty just to express that the kids are alright. Joe Ryan... faced 672 batters last year. K's, BB;s and HR's added up to 263. FIP removes those other 409 in play events because a ball in play is a bit of a wild card. It attempts to take as much luck out of the equation as possible. I still like WHIP so much better. It may not take the luck out of the equation but it does express how lucky those luck events are by the limitation of baserunners. But Yeah... Making the Minimum! That's huge value.

I lose track of the boundaries from time to time.

I'm not even going to be greedy with him. If he can just produce his career averages... It would be a needed boost to our overall. 25 dingers... .820 OPS would be just fine with me.

Ryan threw a 112 pitch complete game shutout against Boston on June 22nd last year. His ERA was at 2.98 at that point. Over the course of his next 6 starts (32 innings total)... his ERA ballooned to 4.43. In the process of giving up 31 runs over those 32 innings... he was lit up by the Braves, Orioles and Cards. He made 29 starts for us. A bad 6 start stretch is the main reason his ERA is being questioned. Was he pitching through an injury during that time?

I would trade Kepler for Manoah. I would have cut Kepler in June so it would be like getting Manoah for nothing.

I am 100% opposed to set lineups and I am 95% opposed to slotting so it's almost a set lineup. A hitter can be moved from the leadoff spot to the 7th to the 3rd spot to the 9th spot over the span of 4 game and it should not cause psychological issues nor should it cause a change in approach because approach because the approach should be to make hard contact. If a manager does not move his lineup around based on hot/cold or pitching matchups... then the manager is ignoring data that suggests that he should and he would be ignoring data just for consistency sake and what does consistency get you in regards to batting order. You want your best hitters at the moment at the top of the lineup. Does it make sense to leave a player in the leadoff spot in the midst of 2 for 25 slump? He can move down in the order and move back up when he starts breaking out of the slump. Does it make sense to leave a batter in the 8th spot for consistency if your 8th hitter has hit 4 home runs in his last 6 games. He can move up in the order and then move back if he cools down. Does it make sense to leave a guy in the leadoff spot when he struggles against sliders and Jacob Degrom is on the mound. Does it make sense to leave a guy in the 8th spot when he kills the off-speed pitch when Sandy Alcantara is the starter. Players produce that type of matchup data... I'm sure the Twins track it. If the lineup doesn't adjust to matchups... the data is being ignored in the name of consistency. What does consistency get you? If you move hitters around in the order... that becomes the new norm... the new consistency.

I don't do the 1,2,3,4,5 thing when labelling starters. These two can get people out so I'll let others slap numbers on them. I like them both and I am really glad that they wear a Twins uniform. If people are under-rating them... they should stop doing that. The average MLB pitcher in 2023 tossed a 4.26 ERA with a 1.31 WHIP. Ober has 292 innings with a career ERA of 3.63 with a 1.10 WHIP Ryan has thrown 335 career innings with a ERA of 4.05 and a 1.10 WHIP. They both pitch for the minimum compensation.

It's really hard to make a switch like this if you are concerned about players remaining in designated boxes. Once you take them out of the box. You see how many EFFECTIVE innings he can give you.

The Happ's, Shoemakers, Bundys and Archers. Signing pitchers like that Is a neon sign letting everyone know that you have failed to develop pitching.

Every off-season. The Waiting is the hardest part.

I'll admit that I don't recall much from 20 years ago. I was in my thirties and groggy from hauling my kids around to hockey practice. But... I'll stop short with Capable. "More than Capable"... is probably worth a discussion on a different thread. On Terry Ryan's biggest sin... I agree every day of the week. And I'll competitively extend to you that not only did we not get anything for his prospects in trades... we didn't get anything for the prospects that put a major league uniform on either... you know... guys like Mohr or Allen. (Insert Emoji that sticks tongue out at you)

I'm not sure but it isn't high enough on the wall to avoid contact with my head.

This is morphing into a different discussion than what I replied to but that's ok. I originally responded to what I thought was a good post by you on Polanco and the qualifying offer. I simply was saying that the decision on Polanco and the qualifying offer is made at the end of the year. How Polanco does in 2024 will provide the information needed to make the QO Decision and I think the possibility of draft pick capital is perhaps the primary reason for if you do or don't regardless of who is coming up from behind him. This conversation seems to have switched into the same conversation that is happening on multiple threads. Is what coming up behind him sufficient enough to replace Polanco right now. I can understand trading Polanco for budget reasons because every team has a budget... I can even understand trading Polanco for pitching... I disagree but can at least understand it. But... I'm skeptical of any conversation that involves clearing Polanco out of the way for others who might be what he has been. Just think about Jose Miranda... those same guys who make the assessments that leads to roster decisions... those same guys felt Jose Miranda was our starting 3B out of spring training last year based upon his performance the year prior. Is Julien another Miranda? I don't know... let's find out but I'd rather find out before you toss Polanco out of the way. On Kepler... Well... I'm not allowed to talk about Kepler... It would be hypocritical. I would have released him last June. It's up to Kepler to be the Kepler that he is.

Severino and Prato are not logs yet. They are safely stashed in our minor league system... when they get the call and perform at the major league level and become players who must play or the team is weaker... they can be a log. If Severino and Prato become logs and cause a log jam because we got a 26 man roster over flowing with talent... that's great news for us because we want a log jam. If Severino and Prato are logs... We got log jams all over the place including the starting rotation. Casey Blake had 68 AB's for the Twins... He shouldn't be blocking anyone. Cuddyer got OF work because the log jam of Jones, Hunter, Mohr, Keilty, Buchanan, Restovich and Ryan were either not playing well enough or not healthy enough to actually play. Dustin Mohr had .782 AB's with the Twins before he was traded to the Giants for a player to be named later. Chad Allen had 773 AB's before he was released after an injury. Neither player produced over 100 OPS+ during their time with the Twins. I'm all for them getting the opportunity to be something but they never became something. Bobby Kielty was in such a log jam that he had to be traded for another log in Shannon Stewart.

I sure hope that Julien has a career that matches Ken Griffey Jr. As a 19 year old in 1989... Ken Griffey Jr. had a .610 OPS against left handed pitching. 797 against right handers. He had 118 AB's against LH and 377 against RH As a 20 year old in 1990... Ken Griffey Jr. had a .805 OPS against left handed pitching. .872 against right handers. He had 238 AB's against LH and 438 against RH. At no point in his career was Ken Griffey Jr. held to 40 AB's against left handed hitting. Henry Cotto was not needed to pinch hit for Ken Griffey.

I'd argue that a good chunk of the players that you list were merely branches. Cuddyer was an infielder in the minors... who ended up playing more OF because that is where they were short on logs. Mohr wasn't a log... Allen wasn't a log. 😉

Based on early season utilization. Solano was the short side 1B option for Joey Gallo. I have no idea what they talked about in the office but based upon utilization. Solano was handcuffed to Gallo originally. Julien wasn't on the roster yet. Farmer was handcuffed to Gordon. Now by the time Julien arrived... Context and performance had Solano getting AB's against all hands by playoff time eventually he would settle back to short side. I wish I had your faith that they will give Julien a shot in 2024.

That you didn't agree... On that we agree. I do appreciate your attempt to think like the front office thinks... I try to do that as well. The Twins clearly set up the roster for platoon utilization. This was their plan and they are not alone... The Giants and Dodgers are a couple of other teams that platoon at the extreme level of the Twins. However... in the end. The careful off-season planning of a lefty handcuffed to a righty didn't last long. The opening day roster plans were blown a part before April was done. Solano the off-season planned short side platoon guy ended up with the third most AB's on the team. Castro the 26th guy on the opening day roster was 4th in AB's. Castro got 114 AB's against lefties despite a .636 OPS against those left handers but at least he could swing from the right handed batters box when producing that. All of these best laid off season plans to have a lefty here and a righty here are blown apart quickly as soon the injury train leaves the station. Yet through it all... no matter if takes adding Jordan Luplow to the roster... it was the young left handed hitters with entire futures in front of them who remained punished by strict platooning consistently like the world falls apart if they are allowed to face Sean Manaea. Bottom Line: If Julien can hit... he will hit both arms. If he has to protected against lefties. He isn't ready to replace Polanco. If he isn't allowed to face lefties... he will never be an adequate replacement for Polanco. He will just be some guy who hits better than other role player options.

Understood... However... I am saying that HE WILL be doomed to be platooned forever if they continue to platoon him as violently as they did last year. First clarification: I love Julien... I'm a huge fan and please understand that I don't mind platooning starts based on the lefty/righty matchup but when he is yanked in the third inning because Joey Wentz enters the game or god forbid yanked before he even gets an AB because the Giants threw a RH opener for the first inning... you are just making the prophecy self fulfilling. The reason you platoon is for an advantage... you don't platoon because the Right Handed hitter is guaranteed to get a hit while Julien is guaranteed to make an out. Yes the platoon advantage is real but we are talking about an advantage that ranges from slight to large based upon the participants. This guy hits .230 vs. a lefty and this guy hits .200 vs a lefty. Playing that advantage card in the third inning is a violent platoon and it will cap his development at Joc Pederson at best. If we are talking about the end result being Joc Pederson... trade him now to maximize the value you get in return and for the sake of his career. As I say that... I don't want Julien to go anywhere... I think he is a fantastic young hitter. Let him hit. Now... if the game is tied in the ninth and Josh Hader is on the mound and you want to bring in Solano for him... that makes sense. Go ahead. Very few would argue. Yanking him with a 5 to 1 lead in the third inning is just sealing his fate and handicapping his career. You say 2025... Well what is preparing him for the eventual taking the chains off in 2025? Or worse yet? What is preparing him for the very real possibility that there isn't a right handed compliment for him due to injury in 2024 come playoff time. What if your right handed complement suffers bi-lateral leg weakness the last week of the season and all of sudden you need Julien to face that big bad lefty in the PLAYOFFS!!! Or Kirilloff or Wallner. We were really close to needing a regular season starved left handed hitter to face left handers in the playoffs last year with both Correa and Lewis injured at the end of the season. If Correa or Lewis were not able to go in the playoffs you are down two right handed hitters. Now what? Julien, Kirilloff and Wallner were all starved during the regular season. I'm not anti-platoon... I am anti absolute strict adherence to the platoon as we demonstrated last year. Development is critical... sitting someone against a perceived weak point is not development. 48 Plate Appearances is not "for good reason".

That's it then... the die has been cast at age 24. If that's the case... trade him now. His value will never be higher.

Yeah but I'd contend that performance volatility can't be avoided... now even if you find a consistent player in regards to performance that can be banked on... health is also volatile. In the case of Polanco, 110, 121, 82, 125, 115, 115 are his OPS+ from the past 6 season. 82 was the covid year. His performance has been pretty stable... his health recently has become unstable. Could Polanco be worth a 50 million dollar contract? I'd bet against it but he'd be close if he can stay healthy enough for 500 AB's and just produce his career average offensively. Anyway.,. You need to take more bets... you need to diversify that portfolio. As far as relying upon your people's assessments. I do rely on them... that is what they are paid to do and they know a lot more than I... but... I'd want my people to know and understand that those assessments are very hard to etch in stone because of that volatility. All teams make mistakes in regards to talent assessment so I'm not knocking them.... but those people are the same people who thought Joey Gallo was a good idea. Those same people better be recommending a diversified portfolio. 😉

Rocco and Cody Pirkl took all the fruit from me.