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Riverbrian

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Everything posted by Riverbrian

  1. Riverbrian
    Sorry I'll be there wondering where you went and how easy you went away. 😎
  2. Riverbrian
    No worries... It is highly doubtful that they take my suggestions. In the end... what I'm suggesting. It's a baseball broadcast so baseball will always be front and center. Someone has to be there to announce that drive laced into the gap. What can be added to the play by play call of that drive into the gap. Well... we currently have an ex ball player talking about how the center fielder was shaded to left or how the runner hit the corner of the 2nd base bag. Or... you can remove the boundaries that currently constrict what a color analyst does to make the game reachable to those it is not currently reaching.
  3. Riverbrian
    I'll take it a step further and we might head off in different directions with this further step. The color analyst doesn't have to be an ex ball-player. The ex ball player doing color is the traditional format. The same ole' same ole'. Baseball needs to attract younger audiences and that is going to require change from the traditional broadcast. Yes baseball knowledge is a must but think entertainment first. I would not be afraid of 3 in the booth. I'd be looking for the equivalent of the KFAN Powertrip morning show in the broadcast booth. I realize that I probably lost you and I also lost a lot of people with that suggestion but baseball demographics need to be younger and more diverse. The traditional way of broadcasting games... the traditional way of playing games have produced demos that are older than any of the major sports by a large margin... Too large a margin... large enough to seriously having to consider the risk of the sport aging out of mainstream relevance. Advertisers want younger demographics than what baseball currently provides. It's time for a change and it's going to take tolerance from us older folks to achieve it.
  4. Riverbrian
    Dick has been a part of my Twins family for 40 years. I wish him nothing but the best in his future endeavors with the Twins organization. Next year will certainly sound different and in time that will be OK as his replacement becomes a new member of my Twins family. In search of his replacement, I encourage the Twins to strongly consider two things. 1. Make sure that females are strong considerations for the job (Marney Gellner for example). I'm not saying that the replacement has to be female but certainly make sure that the door is open wide for strong consideration. 2. Don't try to recreate the traditional structure that has been in place for decades. Choose personality over experience, over voice or over that traditional smoothness that has been the norm. You are about to venture off into new territory. You have the potential to reach more consumers on more devices across the entire country. You are no longer limited by the Twins territory regional broadcast footprint. Baseball does pretty good with the older demographics in the region, to increase audience size, it needs to get younger and it needs more from female demographics. Changing from the traditional format will help grow your current and future audiences. You can start right here... with this spot.
  5. Riverbrian
    Falvey has already said it will be a factor. How much of a factor I don't know but I'm already mentally prepared for whatever.
  6. Riverbrian
    If Camargo is what you think he is. He's a must add to the 40. We will need a decent third catcher ready and waiting.
  7. Riverbrian
    If you consider that the first of two club options for Polanco will cost 10.5 million next year and the 2nd club option will cost 12 million the following year if they choose to pick it up. And if you consider that Farmer will cost an estimated 6.6 million next year in his final year of arbitration before being eligible for free agency after the 2024 season. If you consider that both are significant money on the books next year. If you consider that BTV estimates Polanco's trade value at 4m and Farmer at 1.6m so neither player is going to return much in a trade by themselves. If you consider that Polanco is the better offensive player between the two. Why are those focused on moving Polanco not focused on moving Farmer instead to make room so we can rush Lee up? Are we taking the lesser player just to backup SS? Are we taking the lesser player because Polanco would block Julien or vice versa? Are we taking the lesser player to clear cash and a roster spot if so after 6.6 million for the roster spot is 3.9 million dollars extra? IMO... The team is better with Correa, Lewis, Julien and Polanco on the same roster than it is with Correa, Lewis, Julien and Farmer. Once you commit to 6.6 million for a single roster spot you are already committing significant money for that roster spot. For 3.9 million... I'll take the better player. IMO... I believe there is a high probability that someone or someones on the current 26 man roster will be dealt but that will depend on the team you are trading with that are willing to give up something significant and who they want in return. Lee will be waiting in the wings getting ready for his time in the sun.
  8. Riverbrian
    With the wide variety of opinions expressed by the Twinsdaily community. A leader from the community would have to be selected to consolidate those opinions. That selected leader would be torn to pieces by the very same Twinsdaily community that did the selecting.
  9. Riverbrian
    Willi was a highly ranked prospect in the Cleveland system before he was traded to Detroit. A decent comp for Willi Castro is Jorge Polanco. Both were international signings at age 16. CBA rules force clubs to add these young IFA players to the 40 man at a very young age or lose them in the rule 5 because after 5 minor league seasons... they must be added to the 40 man roster. Ready or not... Polanco had to be added to the Twins roster at age 20 Castro had to be added to the Cleveland roster at age 21. I believe Polanco has been better in comparison but Polanco barely played out of the gate and then had some up and downs. Very little power turned to power around age 25 for Jorge. Who Castro is... is yet to be determined. The tools sure seem to be there. Give him some playing time. Let him determine his future by giving him a chance to. We may have stuck in our thumb and pulled out a plumb here.
  10. Riverbrian
    Once opinions are wedged into something... It takes dynamite to dislodge them.
  11. Riverbrian
    I get the desire to rush Brooks Lee. I'm excited about his future with us as well. However, rushing him to the big leagues when he isn't rule 5 eligible until 2025 is incredibly careless at worst... risky at best. There is no reason to place him on the 40 man roster unless he is going on the 26 man roster. You have to be 1,000 percent positive that he is going to be a very productive out of the gate on that 26 man roster... not just average production because average production isn't a short term gain that will justify the longer term loss of his service time. You would have to dynamite a hole in the 26 man roster by shedding a capable player in order to place him on the 26 man. Don't rush him... let him continue to progress into the player we want him to be. If he does... an injury will create the opportunity for him.
  12. Riverbrian
    He's 23 and he has two options remaining. What he is today is not what he will be tomorrow. We have coaches who work to improve young players. We have data to guide the improvement, we have all kinds of video doo-hickeys to develop a young player with potential. As long as the Twins feel he is worthy of 40 man roster spot, they feel he has a future.
  13. Riverbrian
    I've always heard that 27 is the peak age for a baseball player. Never seen data on it. Just heard it and then thought to myself... OK... 27 is the peak age for a baseball player but I've always assumed that individual players will peak at their own individual time so I've never worried about the accuracy. However, the way that baseball is structured. More so than age... Options... Options tend to toll a lot louder than father time itself. Options give you time to allow for further development if the player looks worth of investment. At the age of 27... you'd like to see them MLB productive by that age, the best players are already in a major league uniform but those options do allow teams to store players that may be ready right now in the minors and teams would be foolish to not store players that may be ready right in the minors because you will need them when in injuries occur. In other words... it may not be (entirely) Larnach's fault or his lack of talent that he isn't settled in a major league uniform at this time. The CBA practically demands that teams utilize every last option on players like Larnach for injury depth. Once a player runs out of options like Gordon. That requires performance right now. They must justify that 26 man roster spot. Canterino has 3 options remaining, We got time with him. Even father time. Jeffers, Wallner, Varland, Headrick have 2 options remaining. I doubt that Jeffers see the minors for a long time. Wallner or Varland could see St. Paul if they struggle. Castro, Larnach, Kirilloff, Moran, Sands have 1 option left. These 5 can be held in the minor leagues for 1 more season before they must be placed on the 26 man roster or exposed to other teams. For Castro, Larnach, Kirilloff, Moran and Sands. I think Kirilloff and Castro are in pretty good shape but for Larnach, Moran and Sands especially... This is a big year for them. The clock for these guys is ticking like Marisa Tomei's biological clock in My Cousin Vinny.
  14. Riverbrian
    I get it... It's almost like the exploration of this rabbit hole would require a full time job. Most of us surface dwellers don't have the inclination to go down there because it's just easier to make some comment about Rocco and his spreadsheets. Even if some of us are inclined to take a look, we certainly don't have the time because what you find down there is going to split off in multiple directions and leave you down there for days, weeks, months. I just really believe that you are pointing at a rabbit hole where the answers lie. It's easy to say K's are the problem. They are... we led the league in them and that has to be a problem worthy of solving but they are clearly not the whole story as illustrated by simple comparison of actual results. The answer us surface dwellers seek (for those who are seeking) isn't going to be found by looking at Twins data exclusively. It's going to require looking at Cleveland and Washington and asking why. Along with looking at the other 27 teams to compare and contrast with. The Twins (All baseball teams) employ lots of analysts. I don't know what they all do but I'm willing to bet that they are not repeating the same work because that type of redundancy would be pointless. I have no idea how many analysts they employ but if they employ (for example) 20 of them... I'm willing to bet that all 20 are not bringing Rocco and the front office 20 duplicate versions of the same left/right splits that I like to complain about in the name of development and in the name of preparation for future needs yet to be determined. I'd like to think that a few of those analysts employed by clubs are down in this very rabbit hole and work down there for a living. Maybe Twinsdaily can create a data rabbit hole forum for those inclined because the conversation that Chpettit19 started and that you took to the rabbit hole is potentially one thousand times more interesting and informative than the Rocco needs to put down the spreadsheets down commentary that exists in proportion large enough to be no longer interesting to me.
  15. Riverbrian
    Dman You are not an idiot for the suggestion. I wouldn't offer him a QO but he is a good pitcher with value and I will not call you an idiot for the thought.
  16. Riverbrian
    First off... I find this discussion interesting and I hope you are not tiring of it. Yes I agree with both Chpettit19 and you. It isn't as simple as simply avoiding strikeouts. I believe that you are pointing at the correct rabbit hole in your data driven reasoning that it isn't as simple. Where we are possibly crossing our wires was my attempt to respond to what you typed below in order to continue this interesting discussion. The b-ref hitter count stats that you linked to in an earlier post are not calculating swing and misses with zero strikes or one strike or foul balls for that matter. They are calculating hit, walk or out events that occur with zero strikes or one strike and then calculating OPS and OBP and Slugging from those AB ending events. It isn't three bad decisions because you can't end the AB with a strikeout with zero or one strike. The AB lives on. It is simply the third strike that registers the numbers that you linked to. The strikeout gets introduced to the math only with two strikes... therefore the 43% strikeout clip that occurs with two strikes is unique to two strikes and would be a conditional probability that explains the 35% run production in the face of the 53% AB's reaching two strikes. Perhaps... you are muttering to yourself... Yes of course RB. But, It isn't clear to me that we are on the same page in this attempt by me to point out a possible conditional probability. Anyway... I hope you haven't exhausted yourself on the conversation. I'm enjoying what you are bringing to us all. And yes... I agree with you. I believe the answer lies in the very deep rabbit hole that you have brought to us.
  17. Riverbrian
    I'm not sure but I think you are saying what I'm saying but... let's find out. According to the song it's one, two... three strikes your out at the ole' ball game. I get that... Three Bad Decisions or inability to execute. However... I am talking about... And hopefully you are as well. What changes when two strikes is reached? The strikeout enters the picture where it didn't exist prior to two strikes. Just to clarify which page both of us are on. 53% of all AB's reach the two strike count. 35% of two strike counts result in run production. All things being equal... over the course of time... two Strike counts should produce 53% of the runs but it doesn't as indicated by the 35%. Zero Strike events result in strikeouts 0% of the time. One strike events result in strikeouts 0% of the time Two strike events result in strikeouts 43% of the time. Only two strikes can produce a strikeout event. Therefore the dumping of 41,844 strikeouts into the 53% 35% data that doesn't/can't exist when the ball is put in play with one or no strikes. Therefore strikeouts becomes a plausible explanation for the drop to 35% run production with two strikes despite 53% of plate reaching a conclusion with two strikes. Every player with two strikes in baseball averages out to a normal Joey Gallo strolling to the plate at bat. Are we on the same page? 😉
  18. Riverbrian
    Kirilloff, Polanco, Correa, Lewis, Julien, Farmer, Castro, Gordon, Miranda And Solano? Keeping the platoon structure intact: Which I hope they don't fully commit to again but they probably will. VS RH DH Julien or Buxton C Jeffers or Vazquez 1B Kirilloff or Julien 2B Polanco 3B Lewis, SS Correa LF Wallner or Kirilloff CF Buxton or Castro or Gordon RF Kepler That's 12 out of 13 roster spots and Farmer isn't listed vs RH for 13. VS LH DH Polanco C Jeffers or Vazquez 1B Need Someone 2B Farmer 3B Lewis SS Correa LF Castro CF Buxton or Castro RF Kepler That's 9 roster spots with Julien, Kirilloff, Wallner or Gordon not listed for 13 OK... In order to maintain that platoon integrity... Someone has to go make room since we will be short short side right handers. I choose Gordon... His roster spot can go to short side platoon guy. So you plug Solano back into his short side platoon 1B role. Easy enough... but it leaves the problem of right handed OF depth if Buxton can't play CF. Castro can't cover both LF and CF against left handers so you are now forcing Wallner to face those dreaded left handed pitchers and the platoon system starts to erode a little bit. It also creates the problem of: Solano is brought back... and now we got almost the same roster that we finished with minus Taylor. How does that IMPROVE this roster. Keeping the heavy platoon system is going to be difficult this off-season and it will block the Twins from really improving the offense with a bigger bat if they instead search for Jordan Luplow again to fill this specific short side role. Look for a talented CF and give Gordon's spot to the acquisition. Besides... and perhaps even more important... You can commit to the heavy locked into come hell or high water platoon strategy once again. Spend your off-season trying to plug in the spaces and set your roster to execute it as you hit opening day. A couple of weeks later... Boom... a couple of injuries and that perfectly set platoon roster is in chaos. Just go big... Get a big bat who can hit both lefties and righties. Let the young lefties get some swings in against left handed pitchers.
  19. Riverbrian
    I do believe that this will finally be his first true opportunity for him to make his own decision on where he hangs his hat and I agree that being traded from club to club isn't a player choice. It should be mentioned that Sonny could have been a free agent after the 2019 season. He chose to sign an extension with the Reds before the season started and that same extension transferred over to the Twins in our deal to acquire him. So... Sonny did choose to give up his right to choose at that time. It's apple and oranges though... In January of 2019 he was coming off his worst year with a 4.90 ERA in Yankee Stadium. The Yankees were more than ready to trade him at that point and the Reds agreed reportedly contingent upon Sonny signing an extension. So... Assumptions by me of course. If Sonny wanted out of New York... He needed to sign the extension. Sonny just had a crappy year and an extension probably seemed like a sensible move since it was being offered. So his free agency has been delayed until now by his choice but it sure seemed like the only sensible choice.
  20. Riverbrian
    Next... Let's take this brevity and bring it into the light. If you assume (I do) that pitchers are trying to make batters hit pitches that they don't want to hit. And if you assume (I do) that batters are trying to make pitchers throw pitches in locations that they don't want to throw into. And if you assume (I do) that this interplay between the pitcher and hitter plays a big role in a positive or negative result. How do you increase the odds that the pitcher will make that mistake and throw one in the happy zone? My assumption is that the best way to achieve this is to make the pitcher throw more pitches. The more pitches thrown the better the odds that the pitcher will goof up on one or two or three of them. We have established that Cleveland and Washington strike out less yet hit poorer than their peers. We have established that Cleveland and Washington reach two strikes less than others and we have established that Cleveland and Washington reach three balls less than others. Therefore plausible assumption... Cleveland and Washington simply don't wait for the mistake and victimize themselves by giving the pitcher the advantage the pitcher wants. Another plausible assumption... teams that wait for the mistake by seeing more pitches will reach two strikes more and three balls more and as a result of that they will strikeout more or walk more. So K's become a natural by-product of patience while patience produces more pitcher mistakes and better results. Therefore... When you get your pitch... Hit that ****er!!! I suspect that the best hitters do this more often. And of course you drive the pitch count up and get the starting pitcher out of the game quicker... which goes back to something else I say often: Get bullpen serious because you are going to need a talented full pen if teams are going to make starting pitchers work like those guys who died building the pyramids in Egypt.
  21. Riverbrian
    It was nice that we went back into Cleveland and Washington but I feel my attempt at addressing your feeling got glossed over. Let's set this up: 184,110 Plate Appearances total. 98,402 reached two strikes in the count. 53% of all plate appearances reach two strikes. 22434 runs scored 7807 scored with two strikes on the ump's clicker. 35% of run production came with two strikes. You ask what is the conditional probability paradox that you might be missing? All strikeouts occur with two strikes. there are zero strikeouts when events occur with one strike or zero strikes. Once you hit the two strike condition. You now dump 41,844 strikeouts into the equation. The strikeout is the X factor that can account for the drop in run production once the bell tolls two strikes. Over 98,402 two strikes events. 41,844 result in K's for 43% 41,844 K's that Zero and One don't have. Zero strikes and One strike get to produce runs, with the sac fly and the dribbler to 1B and doesn't have to contend with 43% strikeouts occurring. I'm Just trying to help
  22. Riverbrian
    Cleveland and Washington were near the bottom in walks also. They were not letting the count get to two strikes and they were not letting the count get to three balls either. Team Wide Aggressive Approach? Ben Revere syndrome? Ben never walked because pitchers didn't feel the need to pitch him carefully. 😉 If you want to take Cleveland and Washington into a new light. Check Line Drives and notice that Cleveland and Washington are 1-2 in the total number of line drives. They Don't Strikeout, They don't walk and they hit more line drives. This requires a dive into percentages because if they strikeout and walk less... they are putting more balls in play and therefore have more opportunity to win a line drive counting stat competition. LD% Cleveland is 2nd at 21.3% Washington is 20th at 19.7 BTW Top to Bottom Range of LD% is 21.4% to 18.3 so there isn't a lot of LD% difference between first and last. All teams seem to have similar LD% so Cleveland leading in line drives probably has more to do with not striking out or walking despite placing 2nd in LD%. Moving on to GB% Cleveland was 6th at 44.0% and Washington was 3rd at 45.1%. Top to Bottom Range on GB% is 46.2% to 38% so this produces a little more separation between first and last and tells a little more of the story. So this leads to Double Plays. You strikeout less, walk less and you rank high in GB%... you must hit into a lot of double plays. Nope. I wish life was that easy but it's not. Washington is 18th and Cleveland is 21st. To round out the batted ball results. Look at FB% and you find what Cleveland and Washington doesn't do with all of that contact. Washington is 26th at 35.2% and Cleveland is 28th at 34.7 FB% Range from Top to Bottom is 41.3 to 33.6% so it has a similar spread as GB%. In my head... I am leaning toward the possibility that Cleveland and Washington haven't learned the art of not swinging at pitches the pitchers want them to swing at. Making contact earlier than most but poor contact more often than most. But... There are more things to check before rushing to judgement. Sequencing for example. We are going to need some coffee. 😉
  23. Riverbrian
    You are missing an X Factor or conditional probability paradox. It's going to bring this discussion around full circle. Are you ready. Here it comes: The two strike count is the only time that you can... Bum - Tah - Bum. (Dramatic Pause) Strike Out!!! It's the introduction of a new way of getting out that didn't exist in earlier counts. Zero Strikes, One Strike... You must put the ball in play in order to record an out. We are now back where we started.
  24. Riverbrian
    I can condense this into legendary brevity. Here it comes: When you get your pitch... Hit that ****er!!!
  25. Riverbrian
    Amen Old Man... Amen. I could work every single aspect of my phone in the 80's.
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