Riverbrian

Luzardo speculation is running amok. Is it running amok because of the reported Luzardo/Pasquintino rumor that didn't happen? The Marlins made the playoffs last year with a young roster. They don't need to sell the top of their roster. However, even if they decided to sell Luzardo... why would they dilute the talent level of what you acquire by getting multiple players back. If you were the Marlins... Wouldn't you go big and try to get one off the charts offensive player. Such as Pasquintino or Jordan Walker or Tristan Casas. If I was the Marlins... I'm not screwing around here with packages. .

Let's look at last off-season. On November 18th... The Twins traded Urshela to the Angels and acquired Farmer from the Reds. December 16th... The Twins signed Free Agent Christian Vazquez. December 20th... The Twins signed Joey Gallo. January 11th... The Twins signed Carlos Correa. January 24th... The Twins acquired Michael A. Taylor. February 23rd... The Twins signed free agent... Donovan Solano. It might be quiet but it's not like other off-seasons are loud by this time.

The Padres are a mess right now. Yes, they do have very good talent on the top end with Machado, Tatis, Bogaerts and Kim... Along with Darvish and Musgrove fronting the rotation. After those big names... Uff Da. Almost every other 26 man roster spot is at best a question mark and at worst extreme question marks so they have a ton of work to do just to put players in uniform while they reduce payroll. 32 players currently on the 40 man roster so they have roster space. Top prospects were AA or below last year. They look like they need about 6 position players on the major league roster, a couple of starters and the bullpen isn't exactly overwhelming. We probably won't hear a lot of comments about how the Twins should be like the Padres this year.

Julien, Kirilloff and Wallner were protected against left handed pitching. They were all pinch hit for very early in games last year. I'm not sure how any of us can look at any of these 3 and say covered. At the very least the Twins are going to need right handed hitters to handcuff them to.

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Great Post... You have a fantastic list of players from that time period and your assessments are solid but I do see things a little differently when I think of those guys. Perkins - No doubt... He is a development success story. A Twin from beginning to end and he was top notch. Dozier - I'll give you Dozer... Kind of... We had 4 big years of Dozier. Although, when it was time to cash out... only pennies remained. The Dodgers sure didn't give up much for him. Certainly wasn't a player that could speed up the needed build. Ramos - I won't give the Twins any credit for Ramos development. I give the Twins the opposite of credit. He goes into the same pile as Carlos Gomez. Traded at age 22... Just another young player that was given away. What a shame because the following year Joe Mauer shifted over to 1B. No worries we had that ole' average vet standby that we stuffed our rosters with during that decade in Drew Butera. You list Drew Butera and admit to stretching the boundaries. I can't stretch things that far. 😄 Span - What the Twins got back in return is another example of that development problem. Span was like you said... decent but not great but I think Alex Meyer in return was a pretty good get at the time... Hard throwing 6-9 Dude out of Kentucky. But Alas, Alex Meyer did not develop under Twins care. So when I think of Span... I think of Meyer... Failed development. Revere - I have always been a huge Revere fan. That speed, that defensive ability, that ability to put the ball in play. I was a big fan. But, Revere and Span traded in the same off-season just reminds me of another development failure. We trade Revere at age 24 along with Span and hand the job to... Yep... that 23 year old 1st round pick named Aaron Hicks who the Twins developed to the point of being worth John Ryan Murphy. Hicks was just decent... not a superstar but he did stick around New York for 2,000 AB's of average baseball. 2,000 AB's with the Yankees is pretty hard to do. Plouffe - 1st round pick. Career OPS of .714. The definition of average. Yet... he was entrenched as the every day 3B for 6 years like he was Adrian Beltre. So entrenched at 3B while playing average baseball that the arrival of top prospect Miguel Sano had to detour to RF to accommodate an average Plouffe. Once Plouffe hit free agency... he barely found a job spent two months with the A's and was traded to the Rays for a player to be named later. Valencia - No Credit for Danny... He was given to the Red Sox after producing a back to back sub .522 OPS season. His success came with the Orioles, A's and Jays. At best those clubs fixed him after we broke him. At worst... he's just another example of a young player that we moved off of as a young player and they found themselves elsewhere. At least for awhile in Danny's case. The Twins really really really struggled with development over that long dark period and I believe it was why the period was long and dark. I'm not sure the Twins could have done worse and I'm typically a pretty optimistic guy.

Kansas City is a major league baseball team with major league players. I won't over look them. Many pre-season predictions from the experts had both the Rangers and D-Backs with losing records. I won't bet against the Royals. Won't bet on them But I won't bet against them.

29 teams are frustrated every year. 😉

The innings eater is the worst baseball invention ever. There is absolutely no reason to ever... and I mean ever... to let one of your worst pitchers pitch the most innings on your staff. 1451 Innings needed to be covered in 2023 by Twins pitching. It's really simple... Have your better pitchers throw more innings than your lesser pitchers. The innings eater is a bad idea.

Trades are won by the team that better develops or increases the value of the players acquired. There was nothing wrong with the original deal when it was made. The trade ended up being really wrong afterwards because Delmon's value plummeted to the point where he was given to the Tigers. Delmon Young the center piece of the deal was just 22 years old at the time with tons of career that was supposed to come. It's probably more on Delmon according to reports that I've read about Delmon... However... Delmon did not increase in value during his time with the Twins... His value plummeted to the point where he was given away to the Tigers just to get him off the roster. Development during this time was certainly not a strong suit for the Twins. Not only did Delmon not develop... every single player that we acquired in the aftermath did not develop either. No Rookies broke down the door either for over a decade. J.J. Hardy was mentioned in the article. J.J. Hardy was probably a worse trade tree. We failed to develop Carlos Gomez, we rushed him to the big leagues as a 22 year old and cut him loose two years later. During his time with the Brewers Carlos Gomez increased his trade value so much that the Brewers got Josh Hader, Domingo Santana Adrian Houser and Brett Phillips in return. Hader has since netted them Estuary Ruiz who was traded for William Contreras and Joel Payamps today. So the Hardy trade is still giving to the Brewers. J.J. Hardy did not develop as a Twin in his only year with the Twins. He was injured during the season hitting 6 homers as a Twin and that was the ONLY year he didn't at least reach double digits in dingers over the course of 7 SEASONS. The Orioles got him back on track with 30 dingers the immediate year after acquiring him from us for nothing as we handed the reigns to a SS from Japan that was the worst thing we have ever seen. Another development failure I guess. Because we couldn't convert whatever the scouts saw in Japan to a functional major league baseball player. It's easy to see who wins and losses trades afterwards... The teams who lose trades are the ones who don't make the players acquired better but most of us tend to think the win/loss thing is decided at the time of the trade. From 2006 to 2016... Under Terry Ryan. We went through a long stretch of very few players increasing their value with a few big ones crashing and burning. Name a rookie who rose from the Farm during this stretch that developed any kind of decent value either on the field value or trade value. This is what did Terry Ryan in... In my opinion... the failure to develop anybody as we plugged the holes with average veterans. As I'm building a statue outside of Target Field to honor Terry Ryan and I do honor him because he was one of us... development was his downfall and ultimately I will judge our front office on development as well. We seem to be doing much better at it today. The Twins can't survive without development. We have to make our players better.

I'm with ya just with less patience. I gave up last June... The Twins didn't and he took off so the Twins were right and I was wrong. But... I'll still contend that yes... I was wrong yet still right at the same time. Wrong because not having the Kepler that we had after the all star break would have been a blow. Yet right because the team was struggling bad at the plate and changes needed to be made and we had two players (Gallo and Kepler) getting lots of playing time and not pulling their weight while on expiring contacts. There are baseball players in the minors who won't get a 26 man roster spot let alone the playing time that Kepler got for as long as he got. I just can't tolerate players getting chance after chance when other players get no chance because they get chance after chance. Kepler used up his chances and he was using up other players chances while performing badly... So... I'm right yet wrong cuz he turned it around. In the end... He's one of us. I'm a Kepler Fan... I want him to the player we all think he could be... but I'm a Twins fan first. Yeah... I pulled the plug. Good thing my plug doesn't plug into anything.

Yep... No doubt. The Illinois River has less Asian Carp than Twins on the disabled list in 2022. You make a good point worth considering and if you convince me of this possibility and you might. Kepler will merely transition from 2.5 of struggling to 2.5 years of injury prone.

Just a note to all: I really don't want to criticize Kepler anymore. I want to believe in a great 2024 for him. He is one of us and I pull for him. As frustrated as I have been with his performance for 2.5 years and I've expressed it too much... I will also say... I believe his post all-star break 2024 was top 20 in all of baseball.

We had to hit better after the all star break... We just had to... It couldn't get worse... The first week of June... I was ready to set the dugout on fire. I didn't because I didn't want to be known as an arsonist.

It's really hard for me or any of us to make judgements on injuries nagging or severe and what it does to performance on the baseball field. The only thing that I can say from my chair is this. If injury... nagging or severe is causing a drop in performance... the manager must get him out of the lineup and on to the disabled list if necessary. There is no justification for absorbing poor performance because of injury. Playing hurt is not romantic to me. Logan Morrison played every day and was terrible almost every day for us. Then the reports came out that he had been fighting a hip impingement that people say is extremely painful. OK... the hip impingement explains the .644 OPS... But it doesn't explain why the manager kept turning to a guy who was in so much pain that he had a .644 OPS. Injury will never really justify things for me.

Yep I could be wrong but I am guessing that you re-typed the records from my post to express the Twins turnaround coinciding with Kepler's turn around. I don't believe one player by himself was the reason for the turnaround but... to stay in that lane of traffic... the reverse would also be true. Twins struggling coincides with Kepler struggling. This bring us back to which Kepler do we get in 2024? The one that turned around or the one who was struggling? I don't know... I'm glad I don't have to take responsibility for it.

Thanks... Your first bolded statement was helpful to unconfuse me a bit. I couldn't find any articles that could explain it like you just did and I appreciate it. My 1st question was legit. Honestly my 2nd and 3rd questions were probably best described as... whining. Back to the 1st question that really matters and your succinct easy to understand response. That's a loop hole that must be closed. In essence: Ohtani is indeed making 70 million this year and every year but the Dodgers get to hang on to 68 million of it each year... collect interest for 10 years, watch it's value shrink before paying it, all while circumventing the spirit of the CBT in the process because of a value decrease that only counts on referrals but not escalating long term contracts. The CBA as agreed upon encourages this. I don't blame the Dodgers. Every team should do it... It's a loop hole that must be closed. 70 million should be the luxury tax hit for the Dodgers because that is the AAV much like Machado's AAV is 31 million. The AAV is the AAV. Only referrals get the inflation treatment... escalating long term contracts don't... that's wrong. Anyway... thanks for the response. You are sharp as usual.

I don't believe in WAR. Defensive Metrics are over weighted. His defense can be replaced.

You could be right - He had a .926 OPS post all-star break. 203 AB's. 91 Games - Twins Record - 45 Wins 46 Losses He had a .688 OPS pre all-star break. 235 AB's. 71 Games - Twins Record - 42 Wins 29 Losses Reported Injuries all in the first half April 3 - Knee - Disabled list from April 8 to April 15 May 11 - Hamstring - Disabled list from May 13 to May 29 June 1 - Migraine

Version A of Max Kepler is what he did after the all star break. Version A is an absolute bargain and irreplaceable. He was one of the best 20 hitters in all of baseball after the all star break. Version B of Max Kepler is what he did in the 2.5 years prior. Version B is absolutely replaceable and so replaceable that it doesn't even matter if you adequately replace him. If Larnach fails to replace Kepler for example. it doesn't matter because you are in the same spot. Either way... you have a guy occupying a roster spot that needs replacing. Which Kepler are we talking about? Which way would I bet? I don't know and I'm happy that the front office has to place that bet and not me. Besides I'm not allowed to bet on Kepler. I would have cut him in June.

OK... I understand that money in 2034 will have less value than it does today. And if that makes the value of the contract 480 million it makes the value of the contract 480 million. I'm not an economist so I will nod my head and say OK if that is indeed the case. But... this leads me to a few questions that hopefully someone can answer. The luxury tax hit is the AAV of the contract. If a player signs a 2 year 20 million dollar contract. 1st year for 5 million and the 2nd year for 15 million. The luxury tax for both years is the average annual value of 10 million. In the first year the team pays 5 million in salary but the competitive balance tax is 10. The 2nd year the team pays 15 million in salary but the tax is still 10. To go deeper into the weeds let's use Manny Machado for example. His contract has a luxury tax hit of 31,818,182 dollars for every year of his 11 year contract. That is the average AAV for his 11 year 350 million dollar contract. The 350 million is listed as 305 million in salary plus a 45 million dollar signing bonus that is spread out a 4.09 million for 11 years over the course of the contract. Which adds up to 350 million. 350 million divided by 11 is... 31,818,182. Manny was paid 13 million in 2023 and will be paid 13 million in 2024 and 2025. The luxury tax hit for 2023, 2024 and 2025 was and will be 31,818,182 for all 3 of these years based on his average AAV. Manny will make 21 million in 2026. The luxury tax hit will be 31,818,182 based on his average AAV. In 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, 2032 and 2033 Many will be paid 35 million each year and his luxury tax hit will be 31,818,182 based on his average AAV. The salary escalated the competitive balance tax remains the same throughout. OK... here's the question... I understand that money in 2034 is of less value than money in 2024. But wouldn't the same be true for money in 2033, 2032 and 2031. Wouldn't the 35 million paid on the back end of Manny Machado's contract also be of less value and then also subject to inflation adjustments that have occurred in the Ohtani contract? In the case of Manny Machado... the luxury tax remains static... completely locked in on the AAV of the contract. In the case of Ohtani... The luxury tax is adjusted. Here's another question: Didn't Ohtani essentially sign a 20 year contract at 700 million making the AAV of the contract 35 million? The Dodgers are contractually obligated to pay it over the course of 20 years. Or did Ohtani sign a 10 year contract at 2 million as a baseball player and 680 million dollar contract as team mascot. Making his AAV 2 million during his baseball playing days? To my knowledge... team mascots are can be paid whatever the team wants to pay them and it isn't calculated into the CBT. OK... One last question... What if Ohtani still wants to play baseball in 2035? He is not under contract to play baseball but the Dodgers owe him 680 million. Does he get 680 million from the Dodgers and 20 million from the Giants when he signs with them in 2035? I need to know the answers to these questions before I decide if I'm pissed or not. I'll hang up and listen...

I won't be able to explain it either but from what I'm reading it is because of present value vs. future value. In 2034 680 million won't be worth as much as 680 million today. Because of this... It's being reported that the true value of the contract is around $480 million and therefore a cap hit of $48 million dollar cap for 10 years. Not only does the CBA allow this... I would go as far to say that the CBA encourages this because the Dodgers just yanked 22 million a year off the cap. Wouldn't every team want to do that? It should work like this in my opinion. What are you paying a player in a given year. That's your cap hit. The Dodgers carry a 2 million dollar cap hit for 10 years and then carry a 68 million dollar cap hit for the next 10 years until they stop dropping money into his bank account.

Yesterday was amusing and disgusting all rolled into one. People tracking a random plane. I'm laughing. People making public Yusei Kicuchi's restaurant reservations. I'm laughing so hard that I can hardly breathe. His dog is named after a baseball team? I'm laughing so hard that I've fallen on to the floor. However... the reality of it all... All of it... The reality of how something like this happens... I'm not laughing. Nothing is more important than an informed public. Unfortunately this is how we are informed on nearly everything... not just baseball. This is how we demand to be informed because we ain't waiting for facts. We created this Morosi who is busy apologizing today. Journalistic ethics, integrity... Gone... we have no use for it.

It was a nice article. I actually liked your usage comparison for the label of super-utility and utility and I understood the point. I was just having fun with the constant need for the baseball community to stick players into boxes with a shipping label clearly identifying the product inside. I still prefer to call them baseball players. I refuse to limit them to a single position unless they are exceptional at the position. The math is always quite simple. Approximately 13 position player spots at a given time and 9 positions to occupy when each lineup is set. The baseball community likes to pick 9 starters and call the other 4 backups. Well... those 4 backups can't back up all 9 positions... Actually those 3 backups can't cover 8 spots because one is always a catcher. So... Unless you have an every day job playing one position exclusively.,. you become utility by necessity. It isn't that they can play multiple positions at virtuoso levels... they play multiple positions because they don't have a position that they have been designated to play exclusively. People are trying to kill Polanco because Julien plays 2B and this is the unnecessary filtering of possibilities and very limiting to getting the best players into the lineup. It's this need to slap labels on baseball players that blind those who think this way. I'm not sure who invented Super-Utility but I first become aware of it with the Dodgers. Cody Bellinger as a 21 year old in 2017 started 127 games split between 1B and all 3 outfield positions. He did the same in 2018 as a 22 year old with increased usage at 135 starts. In 2017... the Dodgers also had Chris Taylor 131 starts and Kiki Hernandez and 111 starts both of them started at 1B, 2B, 3B, SS and all 3 OF positions as needed. So that's three super-utility players in 2017 and the Dodgers won baseball games. In 2018... All three players were utilized the same way in this super utility role. Bellinger 135 starts, Taylor 128 Starts and Kiki made 104 starts and they added Max Muncy to the party who made 102 starts at 1B, 2B, 3B, LF and RF. Tack on Austin Barnes who tacked on 19 starts at 2B to his 61 starts at catcher... And... And... the deployment of the trade deadline addition... Mr. Manny Machado at both SS and 3B as he played where the club needed him to be... And of course... the Dodgers won baseball games. Did the Dodgers search for players who could play multiple positions or did players just simply starting playing multiple positions by Manager choice in an effort to get the best players in the lineup at a given time based on what he has to work with? I don't know but it worked and it starts by ripping the labels off. Anyway... I was just having fun with the labels.

Labels Everything and everyone must have a label.