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arby58

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Everything posted by arby58

  1. arby58
    Trout has only played 10 years and is 28. In that time, he's been league MVP 3 times and finished second 4 times. Aaron won 1 MVP and never finished second. Trout's 1.000 career OPS is far better than Aaron's .928; Aaron's OPS was over 1.000 5 times; Trout has already topped that 3 times (and had other years of .991 twice and .993 last year). Aaron's greatest achievement was consistent high performance, but for peak performance, Trout is already topping him and probably has another 7-8 years of very high level play.
  2. arby58
    With all due respect to Hank Aaron, who is in the discussion for GOAT, I'd suggest we have another candidate in our midst, and his name is Mike Trout.
  3. arby58
    While this is a useful comparison, I would also note that the White Sox have a couple of young, dynamic players who are likely to perform significantly better than their 2020 WAR - Moncada and Robert in particular. Of course, the Twins expect the same from Kiriloff, Rooker, Jeffers, etc. Donaldson returning to MVP (or close) form would help tip the scales, as would resigning Cruz (if he can continue to perform at the level of the past couple of years, not a sure thing). You would expect the Twins to at least add another starting pitcher and resolve the rest of their infield. If they do that with 'positive WAR' pieces, this probably about evens out. That said, IMHO the Twins are no longer the presumptive favorite to repeat as division champs.
  4. arby58
    I suspect that if the Twins had held onto him and kept him on the big league roster, there would have been plenty of 'fan discord' related to performance. Paging Aaron Hicks, who was sometimes painful to watch, particularly against right handed pitching. It's hard to blame the Twins on this one, just as it was hard to blame them for moving Lance Lynn. Unfortunately, they are both now in White Sox uniforms after figuring some things out.
  5. arby58
    Look up his minor league records. In 2012, 2013 and 2016, he played more games at 2B than at SS in the minors. He also played 14 games at 3B in 2011 and 10 that year in the outfield, in all three positions. He's certainly athletic enough for it - there have been several examples in baseball history of players shifting from SS to CF with little preparation and doing just fine out there. Robin Yount is one example, and Paul Molitor (ironically, he had to move from SS because of Yount) also moved around, to 2B, 3B and the OF.
  6. arby58
    I'm not a fan of making Arraez into a utility guy. My observation of his outfield play is that he is pedestrian at best there, and he doesn't have the quickness/agility for short stop. That pretty much leaves 2B and 3B, and there's not much utility in that. Polanco has better all around ability to be a utility player.
  7. arby58
    I don't understand the seeming interest in 'moving on' from Arraez at second base. At 22/23 years old, he has a combined 438 at bats and has hit .331 with an .819 OPS. He's always a tough out, and, major or minor leagues, he's always been a .300+ hitter. Granted, not much power and not great defensively, but Jorge hasn't exactly lit it up in either category of late either. Plus Arraez has longer control/lower salary. I know people say trade him for a pitcher, but I'd rather have him as a table setter playing every day.
  8. arby58
    Granted, you weren't born yet, but the 1970 Twins had a strong rotation, top to bottom: Jim Perry (24-12, 3.04 ERA), Jim Kaat (14-10, 3.56), Bert Blyleven (10-9, 3.18), Louis Tiant (7-3, 3.40), Bill Zepp (9-4, 3.22). Unfortunately, they ran into an Orioles team with even better pitching (and at least as good hitting) that won the World Series 4-1 over a very good Cincinnati team. That rotation was Palmer (20-10, 2.71), Cuellar (24-8, 3.48), McNally (24-9, 3.22), Hardin (6-5, 3.53) and Phoebus (5-5, 3.07). Imagine winning 20 games and having the third most wins in the rotation!
  9. arby58
    The theme of the piece is patience - this would not be patient. The Twins of old (and several other franchises) have messed up young pitchers via the baptism by fire. Let them gain their experience in the minors - pitching wasn't the Twins' problem last year, and my guess is there will be enough this year as well without leaps of faith with the young pitchers mentioned.
  10. arby58
    Baez and Petit sure sound like the types of relievers the Twins have tended to sign over recent years, and Wood's name comes up a lot (probably the least under the radar guy on this list). Too many logs already at IB for Moreland, although he's one of those players I always respect/fear when he's coming to the plate. Robertson also sounds like a good option if Hernandez et al don't get signed for the utility role.
  11. arby58
    They don't have the money to sign both Hand and Hendriks.
  12. arby58
    A lot depends on Polanco's ankle. If that is a chronic concern and he's regressed to the hitter he was in the second half of 2019 and pretty much all of 2020, it's hard to see how switching him to second base improves the Twins much, even with Lindor in the line-up. In that case, I'd rather trade Polanco and keep Arraez. Rosenthal's comment about Lewis dazzling team officials at the alternate site in 2020 was interesting - I hadn't heard that level of praise. There also seems a lot of speculation that Lewis might eventually switch positions. However, if he truly was 'dazzling' and if shortstop is where he'll stay, it makes zero sense to trade the eventual solution at the position for a year of Lindor, even if he is the best player on the planet without a freshwater fish last name.
  13. arby58
    If nearly all of the offense hadn't regressed in 2020, I might agree with you. They'd be relying on a bunch of guys (Romo, Cruz, Polanco) who were on the down-swing in the second half of 2020 - and some who had really poor full seasons (Marwin, Cave, Adrianza).
  14. arby58
    Last year's team had enough pitching, but you won't win a play-off series (let alone a World Series) scoring one run a game. The all-in isn't going to win it. I'd prefer the 'spread it around.' Of all of the options, the 'do over' sounds the worst.
  15. arby58
    My guess is this is where Lewis lands.
  16. arby58
    Wisler and Dobnak were two pitchers that always seemed to lead to heart palpitations for me when they pitched. Their results seemed too good to be true (in Dobnak's case for half the year, anyway) from 'the eye test.' Granted, that is from the eye of a center field camera and not a batter at home plate, but the provided stats provide some support for that concern.
  17. arby58
    The Twins gave up on David Ortiz at age 26 after 3 years of gradual improvement. Dismissing 2020 (which, based on a variety of factors, seems reasonable) and comparing Sano and Ortiz at age 26, Sano in 105 games (Ortiz 125) had 380 AB (Ortiz 412) and had 34 HR (Ortiz 20), 79 RBI (Ortiz 75) hit ..247/.346/.576 for an OPS of .923 (Ortiz .272/.339/.500 for an OPS of .839) and had an OPS+ of 139 (Ortiz 120). I'm not saying that if the Twins trade him for a bag of baseballs he will have a remaining career like Ortiz, but their stats at a similar age were similar (and favoring Sano in several key categories). Yes, 2020 was dismal, with a slightly negative WAR for Sano, but trading a player with his impact potential at the low point in his MLB career sounds like the stock market equivalent of buying high and selling low.
  18. arby58
    Right - this year, the Twins were 'right' about Matt Wisler - and 'right again' about Caleb Thielbar. Some of this is a bit of a crapshoot.
  19. arby58
    As fans, we often have short memories. Littell's 2019 - at age 23 - was a very strong performance. Compare it to Alcala this year at age 24. Littell 37 innings pitched (Alcala 24); Littell WHIP 1.162 (Alcala 1.208); Littell 32 Ks and 9 BB (Alcala 27-8); Littell ERA+ 171 (Alcala 168) LittelL 2.68 ERA (Alcala 2.63). Pretty much everyone thinks Alcala has a bright future, yet Littell's 2019 was arguably better than Alcala's 2020. They're both 24. Yes, elbow injuries are a concern, but nearly every pitcher encounters them at some point (or points) in time - and pitchers like Jacob deGrom and Stephen Strasburg did all right after recovery. Of course, the Twins have more complete information, and relievers who can throw 96 and pitch an inning a game seem to be in pretty good supply. If that is what the Twins see, ok.
  20. arby58
    I still have a difficult time with the concept of a player who can only influence the outcome of a game 11 times out of 60 being the most valuable player. By that measure, I'd probably vote for Buxton, who positively impacted at least as many games, injuries notwithstanding. If it were 'best player' I'd vote for Maeda, but that's not the same as most valuable player.
  21. arby58
    It passes the eye test. I recall watching Dobnak pitch - even when he was winning games and getting people out - and the word that comes to mind is 'anxiety.' He doesn't miss many bats, and the 'pitch to contact' leaves little room for error. If he wore down or batters started figuring him out, the feeling was still the same - how will he survive this inning/this game? I sort of expected the same from Jeffers, at least at bat. From the start, the word used (solid) described him. In looking up the first full year of catchers in MLB, his stats (adjusted for at bats) look remarkably similar to Gary Carter's first year with the Expos. In 503 AB, Carter had 136 hits, 58 runs, 17 HR, 68 RBI and went .270/.360/.416 for an OPS of .776. Multiply Jeffers 55 AB by 9 and you would get 135 hits, 45 runs, 27 HR, 63 RBI, and he went .273/.355/.436 for an OPS of .791. Yes, I know about projecting the small sample size over 162 games, but for now, it's all we can do with 2020. If Jeffers has a career similar to Carter's, I suspect he and the Twins will be perfectly fine with that.
  22. arby58
    I get the impression this Twins team (and management) have sights set higher than winning the first round of the play-offs. In that case, it doesn't much matter what order you play them.
  23. arby58
    Excellent points. The stockpiling of young talent is also worth noting. We saw what Rooker could do when he was elevated - he was 'squaring up' pitches with the best of them. Still waiting in the wings are Lewis, Kirilloff, Gordon, Duran, etc. The future looks bright!
  24. arby58
    It's absolutely right that hunting down that elusive 'ace' is something of a crapshoot. Bumgarner is probably past his prime, never to return. However, the comebacks by Lance Lynn and Yu Darvish suggest that a crappy stat line one year do not necessarily mean you're forever damaged goods. Of course, in Lynn's case, he was also a jerk, so there's that. Sounds like Maeda is the 'real deal' on multiple levels.
  25. arby58
    The guy who has impressed me of late is Alcala. For one thing, you can count on him for two innings (not sure I would say the same about most of our bullpen), and there are times where that is at least desirable and maybe necessary. He's also young and on the upswing, sort of like Dobnak was last year. With the caveat that they all have done well this year and all are excellent component parts, I would probably drop Stashak and Wisler. Stashak is mostly injury concerns - if there are none, then I'd keep him and drop Clippard. With Wisler, I just don't trust a one pitch pony. Granted, you might say the same about Romo, but Romo has proven it in high leverage situations for a longer period of time. Clippard has done fine, but he is at the bottom of this strikeout list.
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