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arby58

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Everything posted by arby58

  1. arby58
    Baseball is a game replete with statistics. I would note we are now more than 1/4 through the season, so the statistics are starting to gain more traction. Yesterday, Joey Gallo went 1 for 5, but the one hit was a two-run home run. So he generated his own run and drove in two runs. His batting average went down. Yesterday, Luis Arraez went 2 for 4; he didn't score or drive in any runs. His batting average went up. This is an example of why batting average is a poor primary indicator of offensive performance.
  2. arby58
    I would point out that those enamored with Arraez' offensive output have posted continuous updates on his batting average since back in April. At least the talk of him hitting .400 for the season has died down a bit now that he's at .382.
  3. arby58
    Runs and RBIs do tell a useful story. So, if you compare them, in 91 at bats, Gallo has scored 17 runs and driven in 21; in 136 at bats, Arraez has scored 14 runs and driven in 14 runs.
  4. arby58
    As a kid, I remember looking at batting average as the key to the value of a player. OK, not every player, as I was a Harmon Killebrew fan, and he never really hit for average. That should have alerted me to the fact that not all base hits are created equal - and those that sail over the fences are far more valuable than a single to center field. There are a lot of people who complain about trading away last year's AL batting champion, Louis Arreaz. That said, while he hits for a very high average, just how impactful is he? I would argue not that impactful. Let's compare two players so far this year - and they are night and day difference makers. Introducing Joey Gallo. Gallo is an all or nothing player offensively. He strikes out a lot, but when he gets hit, he hits the ball hard. Many of those get out of the ballpark or at least produce extra base hits. Arraez is the oppposite - he doesn't really hit the ball hard, but he gets a lot of base hits. Through tonight, his batting average is a gaudy .379. By contrast, Gallo is at .209. So who is more effective? I would argue it is about a wash, and, given the many more at bats for Arraez, Gallo is more impactful In 132 at bats, Arraez has scored just 14 runs. That is largely because it takes a lot to score a run when you just hit a single or walk, and that is what Arraez mostly does. With 132 at bats, Arraez' 50 hits are mostly singles (7 doubles, 1 triple, 1 home run), so his OPS is.905. That's pretty good, but remember the runs scored thing. In just 86 at bats, Gallo has scored 16 runs, and has a similar .903 OPS. The difference is he drives the ball - he has 18 hits, and nearly all are extra base hits (5 doubles, 1 triple, and 8 home runs). So Gallo is hitting .209, and Arraez is hitting .379 - but the impact factors in baseball suggest Gallo has been more valuable offensively.
  5. arby58
    'Trading prospect value' is marginally useful at best. The best return on trading a prospect was for Gray - and none of the players we gave up in the Mahle trade had that value. We got a bunch of prospects for Santana, and Gomez didn't blossom until we unloaded him. We got a bunch of prospects for Dozier - pretty much nada. We got two prospects for Pressley - not working out so far. The best 'before this front office' trade was probably unloading Knoblauch - but we got back major league players, and they did pretty well. Ergo, the Mahle trade was still worth the risk - and hindsight is always 20-20.
  6. arby58
    The Mahle trade is only 'the worst' if the players actually do much more than WAR at the MLB level - I'd say the jury is still out. Besides, you can't keep all your prospects - some will have to 'age out' because of the 40 player limit. I'd say the worst was the Pressley trade. He is an elite closer, and there was evidence that that might be the case.
  7. arby58
    It's exciting to think about the Twins having these two at the top of the rotation for several years. That's how you win in the play-offs. Arraez and a couple of months of Nelson Cruz for two top of the rotation starting pitchers was a bargain.
  8. arby58
    I don't disagree with your general conclusion, but some trades are just more impactful than others. This front office made one 'hit it out of the ballpark' trade, getting Joe Ryan for a couple of months of Nelson Cruz. I would argue the Ryan Pressley trade was pretty bad as well. Everything else sort of washes a bit either way. That said, I think trades for established players and giving up prospects (when you have a decent pipeline) often gets undervalued. I think the Sonny Gray trade was a really good trade, for example, because there is so much risk with kids right out of high school. Regardless of how well he does, we've gotten two solid years (and this year maybe more so) from Gray.
  9. arby58
    Of the talent that they 'bled' who would be playing for them right now, and who would be expected to get in front of their current crop of 'almost ready for prime time' players? Many of the rankings suggest the Twins have a pretty good crop 'down on the farm.' The thing that gets lost in these discussions about prospects is you can't keep them all - eventually there are only 40 keepers, and 26 of them go to the players already on the MLB roster. Some of the prospects given up were getting close to 'the clock is ticking' decision time when the Twins could lose them without any return.
  10. arby58
    I understand that - I'm interested to see how that plays out for the Twins.
  11. arby58
    It will be interesting to see how the Chris Paddack situation plays out, given its similarity.
  12. arby58
    I agree it was worth the risk at the time, when the Twins were competing to make the play-offs in 2022. As Kirkegaard said, life can only be understood backward but must be lived forward. Those who constantly look backward with the benefit of time are missing that point. If the Twins team this year has provided us anything in terms of a glimpse to winning - good pitching beats good hitting most times. Last year's rotation was a house of cards that would inevitably fall down. This year looks much more stable.
  13. arby58
    Lopez is an excellent starting pitcher with a real chance to be a legitimate ace - and those are the pitchers you need to win in the play-offs. Even the best hitters fail around 6 to 7 per 10 times at bat, so the 'play every day' thing isn't nearly as material as it suggests. Arraez is really great at getting on base - usually just first base. It still takes a lot to drive in a runner on first base. That might be why, even though he leads MLB in batting average, he has only scored 12 runs. Byron Buxton, with a batting average about half of Arraez' has scored 21 runs. It helps when you can hit HRs, doubles and triples - a lot easier to generate runs. That's what ultimately matters, not just BA. Besides just hitting the ball, there is also the defensive side, and that is not Arraez' strong suit (nor is speed on the basepaths). I think the trade was just fine, and the Twins will start hitting a bit better (Correa in particular). Let's judge this trade a bit further down the line and keep in mind the Twins also got at least one pretty good prospect in the deal.
  14. arby58
    Miranda has hit at every level and had his moments last year - I wouldn't give up on him yet. Ultimately, either he or Julien could end up being primarily a DH, as their defense is suspect.
  15. arby58
    The current batting average for all baseball is .247. There are more useful statistics, particularly OPS. Gallo has a low batting average but hits a lot of extra base hits. He is far above the league average OPS. The Twins, like it or not, are, at the moment, a home run hitting team, so batting average isn't the best measure for them. That said, I'm in full agreement about bringing up Alex and sending down Trevor - which they did earlier today. Trevor is not driving the ball (hence the significant drop of late in his OPS).
  16. arby58
    yeah, it takes two to make a trade. Kepler's meh last couple of years have hollowed out his trade value, and Larnach's lack of power is also a problem for trade value of a corner outfielder.
  17. arby58
    The games against the Yankees and Astros show they are competitive. In years past, they might have one or two starting pitcher you felt reasonably good about, and then were nervous the other three days. Now, with Lopez, Gray, and Ryan they have at least three, and Mahle, Ober and (maybe) Maeda aren't far behind. The bullpen has at least four arms that inspire confidence as well. Then there is the defense, which is really good. That's a great foundation for winning baseball. The offense is a bit of a concern - they need to get Correa going for starters - but the return of Polanco has been encouraging, as has been the emergence of Larnach and Gallo in the middle of the lineup. Plus, they've only played 3 games with KC and none with Detroit, so it's not like they're feasting on their central division cousins.
  18. arby58
    I'd consider it addition by subtraction. For whatever reason, Donaldson didn't really jell with teammates or fans. As others have pointed out, the injury uncertainty was also a concern.
  19. arby58
    I don't understand the 'Maeda will be unhappy in the bullpen' discussion. He is an UFA at the end of the season, he's not a kid anymore, and he's coming off major surgery. He doesn't really have any leverage in those discussions. The Twins should use him now as they think is best - and the bullpen may be the place.
  20. arby58
    It's a good point and an interesting discussion. They signed Paddack for 3 years/$12.6 million, so he isn't a free agent until after the 2025 season. Gray is a UFA after this season, but the way he's pitching, unless they totally go off the rails, they're not moving him. Probably Maeda (don't expect much in return) and maybe Mahle if Ober and Paddack are deemed ready. That said, neither of them are going to get you a ton back as 2024 UFAs.
  21. arby58
    It is encouraging to see this kind of depth in the Twins organization. I think this gets overlooked in some of the angst associated with trading Arraez - while there probably isn't a player who is going to hit .317 among this group (although Julien might get close), there are enough other skills they bring (power, speed, defensive ability) that may make some of them a credible replacement for him. Most of them are also infielders, and you can only play four of them at a time. Trading for a top end pitcher like Lopez makes a lot of sense from that standpoint (and also Mahle).
  22. arby58
    Kudos - the quip (and fact) about Pagan alone was worth the reading time.
  23. arby58
    AAA baseball is a fun place to watch rising stars. I live in Des Moines, IA, where the Iowa Cubs are the Chicago Cubs' triple A team. I recall in the 2014-2016 years watching Javier Baez, Kris Bryant, Willson Contreras, and Kyle Schwarber playing and thinking the Cubs would have a great offense in a couple years - that turned out to be the case and led to their World Series winning team. Last year, I got to see Alex Kirilloff go on a tear in two games in Des Moines, where he hit three home runs combined plus some other extra base hits. I was sitting in a left field box when a ball he crushed rammed against the facing just above our box. It hit so hard they had to send in a couple of guys to repair it - interesting to watch them work just above us. Here's hoping St. Paul is similarly eventful this year.
  24. arby58
    Are you suggesting that the right field wall in St. Paul replicates the one at Target Field? Seems a stretch to use that as the example of things they need to work on, given that every field's dimensions are different.
  25. arby58
    I don't see the value in rushing Julien. Granted, he played college ball in the SEC, but a comparison to Polanco is reasonable. Polanco's path through the minors was a year at A+/AA, a year at AA/AAA, and a year split between AAA and the Twins. Julien did his first year at A/A+, then a year primarily at AA. I think a full year at AAA is the likely path, with a September 'take a look' call up a possibility. Lewis will be back in the second half of the year, and it is far more likely if they still need a hand at 2B, he's more ready. That said, Farmer/Gordon looks like a perfectly fine platoon there if Polanco has extended downtime. It's also possible Polanco comes back and takes over more DH at bats from Buxton, and he goes to the outfield.
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