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bean5302

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Everything posted by bean5302

  1. bean5302
    The Pohlad family traditional philosophy seems to be: Goal = .500 Reach Goal = Win the division World Series = All luck.
  2. bean5302
    First off, Brooks Lee has been a success. He's made MLB and even if he moves into a slot of a utility infielder until he starts getting a little expensive, he provides a solid floor. TD opened with an omg omg omg omg omg omg Brooks Lee fell alllllll the way to the Twins at #8! Lee was potentially a first overall pick!!! type of message. Except Lee wasn't a potential number 1. He was drafted right about where he was expected to go according to mock draft sources, but the TD hype machine was working so hard smoke was coming out. Fans bought in, and that's where a lot of this comes from IMHO. This century? I mean, I guess. By the raw numerical odds, a team can only win the World Series once every 30 years and make it once every 15. The Twins were pretty exciting to watch for a 5 year period between 2006-2010. I believe the 2006 team would likely have won the World Series if not for injuries to Brad Radke and Francisco Liriano. A lot of fans were pretty excited at the start of the Falvey era as well, but the 2020s? Rough by any account.
  3. bean5302
    If the Twins can find a taker for Ober.
  4. bean5302
    The spring doubters were absolutely correct. Matthews sucked for his first 4 starts in AAA, then has been inconsistent since. I'm a fan of his story and I like seeing him have success. He's not improving. He's getting improved results. Last 5 starts 3.82 ERA, 5.22 xERA (his pitches are getting clobbered), 4.86 FIP, 4.53 xFIP. Matthews has a lot in common with Varland in terms of his problems.
  5. bean5302
    Fedko can cover CF or be a defensive replacement or pinch runner. Sabato can't do anything other than swing the bat. Speaking of Fedko (this year's DaShawn Keirsey, Jr.) he's not doing anything to push for more plate appearances.
  6. bean5302
    25 is pretty dang close to peak. xwOBA doesn't dislike pulled home runs, it doesn't grade favorably when the home runs clear the fence by barely enough. Lee's been jusssssssttt eeking over fences this year. A lot of those home runs wouldn't be home runs at many parks. Aside from that, Brooks Lee has been pretty much in line with wOBA vs xwOBA during his career. I'm not seeing the data to suggest he's going to beat the expected metrics.
  7. bean5302
    Why? Even if he made every available start for the rest of the year and went 6 innings every start he'd finish at 160 innings. Of course, that'd be pretty unreasonable. He'll likely end up at 150 innings or so if he's making every start. When the Twins have traditionally limited a player, they've done so early in the season, building the pitcher up over time to a full workload. I don't see how the Twins would be letting Prielipp near 100 pitches a game on a regular basis if they were worried about the work load. I'd imagine the Twins would much more likely skip a start for him if he shows signs of wearing down.
  8. bean5302
    "we" are, are we? Shelton has had Prielipp pitching 6.0 innings in 4 of his last 5 starts with 4 of those 5 having at least 93 pitches thrown. I see nothing to indicate the Twins are limiting him. Piggy back a 6.0 inning starter?
  9. bean5302
    I don't recall Keaschall ever being compared to Trout, but Trout comparisons in general are insane. Trout produced more than 4x Buxton's career value through age 29. Aside from that, Lee is absolutely "better" than he was at the plate, but he's still not looking like somebody who will be even average. He's also "better" as a 3B than he was as a SS, but he's not going to be a good 3rd baseman. He's not rangey and his arm is very weak. Lee's also been a TD golden child for a long time. Not until this year did fans stop the endless excuse making, but still, writing glowing articles about him feed the need of people to live in their bubble. That's what people want to hear and TD is a fan entertainment site.
  10. bean5302
    Bell is making a significant amount for a maybe league average hitting DH. The new team would be responsible for about $4MM including the $1.25MM buyout. 1) Team has to be a competitor 2) Team has to have little payroll capacity so they can't afford a good option 3) Team must be unwilling to trade quality prospect talent to acquire a good player 4) Team must have an absolute black hole at DH Just because Bell is "hot" today doesn't mean he's going to be hot tomorrow and teams know this. 6/14-6/21 was his "hot streak" where he went .462/.517/.769 OPS 1.286 wRC+ 257 across 7 games. Great! Trade him! Only his 6 games since are .150/.227/.300 OPS .527 wRC+ 43. Looks like we missed our shot. For teams to bite, they're going to need to see a month of consistent performance before the deadline. Not 1 or 2 hot streaks for 5 games each surrounded by 20 games of not so good play. Even then, nobody is going to buy Bell being a highly desirable target. The Twins overpaid for him from Day 1 so the best the team can hope for is to get out from under his contract with a PTBNL, IMHO.
  11. bean5302
    While it's fun to watch Lee be successful at the plate, I don't see any realistic sustainability of even an average MLB hitter based on his approach. Baez through 2025 ASG = .275/.310/.442 wRC+ 108, wOBA .325, xwOBA .291 and then the wheels came off. Obviously a totally different hitter, but that's how regression works. Brooks Lee's performance looks a lot like Javy Baez's hot 2025 start. It's just a matter of time before Lee's results tank.
  12. bean5302
    TD Hype machine on overdrive, Keaschall was barely holding his own at AAA when the Twins called his number. Then his first 7 games at the MLB level were great and fans jumped on board the hype machine at warp speed. His rehab assignment in AAA was poor, and the Twins recalled him. Once again, the first 20 games at the MLB level were great before pitchers stopped throwing him challenge fastballs. Keaschall's production fell off hard but fans seem to think the all fastballs version of Keaschall was the real Luke Keaschall and the AAA and post August 2025 Luke Keaschall was the imposter. Brooks Lee was similar. TD Hype Machine maxed out, initial success, then he struggles. Looks bad in AAA, but people think he'll turn it around.
  13. bean5302
    Aaron Sabato is good-ish at AAA. He's got a wRC+ of 127. I'll admit, the pitching in the International League is so abominable that it's hard for a hitter to show whether they're ready because no matter who is out there, it's tough to OPS like 1.000+, but Sabato's AVG/OBP/SLG wOBA and wRC+ project pretty poorly. Sabato is probably just having a nice career AAA year. Maybe he'll get a Sept call up to get a couple PA in the big show as a pat on the back before he chooses a different career path.
  14. bean5302
    I wasn't performing an analysis of your whole post, but sure. Defined roles for a terrible bullpen doesn't exist because you never know when a reliever will be unavailable so sometimes you have to use a reliever in a situation you'd rather not. Banda is not a good relief pitcher. He was on a really great "results" tear there for almost 20 games after sucking so badly he probably should have been released. 18G, 16.2 IP, 0.00 ERA. Yay!!! 9.18 K/9 (meh), 3.78 BB/9 (not good), .220 BABIP (red flag), 91.3mph EV (that's bad), 4.56 xFIP (bad), LOB 94.1% (amazing luck). The Twins currently have ZERO great relievers. Gomez might be "good" but probably not. Having a defined plan when none of your relievers is good is just rearranging the deck chairs on the Titanic.
  15. bean5302
    Keaschall doesn't provide much value to the club right now. Playing him in RF makes no sense. He can't hit well enough to play 2B, let alone RF. The team can take two approaches. Continue to give him an unlimited leash to learn how to hit MLB pitching and try to improve infield defense like they did with Brooks Lee or send him down to AAA to change his swing.
  16. bean5302
    Because the Twins do not have the personnel they need in the bullpen, but it doesn't help anybody to come out and say the bullpen is filled with mostly waiver wire worthy guys who are making their last go 'round in the big show.
  17. bean5302
    Almost every single non-huge market team in the World Series the past decade had a tear down a rebuild a few years prior to their first appearance. It's non-optional. It's REQUIRED for a small or mid market team. Small and mid-market teams cannot sustain World Series viability without a purge of their players who are coming out of cost control. Those arb 3 and free agent players are boat anchors. 26 guys on the roster. $3MM average = $79MM $4MM average = $104MM $5MM average = $130MM $6MM average = $156MM $7MM average = $182MM $8MM average = $208MM
  18. bean5302
    @ziggy I'm sorry you went through so much dough for that game! Only sellout at Target Field this year. I wonder if the ticket scalpers were driving the prices? That said, attendance was listed at 39k. I haven't been to a game with that kind of energy since the 2023 playoffs. Must have been awesome!
  19. bean5302
    It's always a bad take if you're debating me. :D hahhahaha
  20. bean5302
    Rojas is probably the guy the Twins are going to rely upon to eat innings. Not sure what limitations there are on Prielipp's workload? Shelton is letting Prielipp throw more nearly 100 pitches with regularity. Doesn't seem like he's being limited by pitch count or innings as the Twins are letting him go at least 6 innings. Historically, the Twins have limited pitch counts with inning caps if they're protecting a player. Prielipp is at 70 innings right now (15 AAA, 55 MLB) With 15-16ish potential starts left in a full season for Prielipp, he's probably on pace for 75-90 more innings this year, max, putting him at 150-165 innings on the season. I don't think the Twins are going to shield him much based on how they're handling him.
  21. bean5302
    Attendance went up after Mauer retired. Up after Puckett retired. Up after Santana was traded and Hunter left. Fans don't care about the names on the jerseys when it comes to game day attendance.
  22. bean5302
    Also, pretty sure I've covered what the Twins SHOULD do to get people to the game. 1) Give away tickets to competing high schools. Fill entire sections with high school students. At least 1,000 seats a game during the school year. Give them a free hot dog and soft drink/water. Give them an exclusive meet and greet with players. Have give-away items for the winners (and losers) of the competition of who cheers loudest, etc. 2) Good give-aways. Not a Truly fanny pack or a container of dental floss or whatever they give away. Something exciting. TWINGO too. Make it actually worth playing and going to the game potentially rewarding. 3) Market steep discounts to nearby apartments and condos on season ticket packages. Sign up rates for the building increase the discount. Give free season ticket packages away to those management companies for participating. Get season ticket holders back. There are none anymore. 4) Partner with local (North Loop) tap rooms and restaurants to give away non-transferable Twins tickets before events. 5) Partner with influencers and pop culture people to advertise on social media. 6) Work social media bonuses into contracts. The Twins (and baseball) events need to be seen as popular and fun to attend. Pohlad still thinks it's about winning and losing. Idiot. Winning helps. Playoffs "help" but it's correlation vs. causation at work.
  23. bean5302
    In regard to the arguments people care about players names or the game itself... I've pointed this out before and I still remember @USAFChief vehemently disagreeing, but he's still wrong :p Take me out to the ball game! (event) Take me out with the crowd! (ambiance) Buy me some peanuts and Cracker Jack (event) I don't care if I never get back (ambiance) Root, root, root for the home team (ambiance) If they don't win it's a shame (ambiance) For it's 1 - 2 - 3 strikes, you're out! (is actually baseball related) At the 'ol ball game! (event) Almost nothing in that entire song is actually about baseball.
  24. bean5302
    They sold out Target Field for years when it opened. Weather is not the driving reason people attend games. Right now, attendance is lower than it was in the Metrodome. Fans hate the Pohlads and don't want to put any money into the Pohlad's pockets. The Twins are not exciting or popular. Baseball is not exciting or popular in general. Attending Twins games is boring because the stadium is empty (catch-22). Minnesota United sell out 20k fans every game. A diverse crowd of all ages and ethnicities, and honestly, I see demand continuing to rise. It's popular. Soccer is popular despite being intensely boring IMHO. It's about the game day experience. It always has been. It always will be, and the Pohlad's are clueless.
  25. bean5302
    While Dozier was certainly a fan favorite, he was traded for low value because he was already playing poorly. He was not the face of the franchise. That was Joe Mauer, who was retiring. If Dozier's decline was due to his hip, then he would have had a big rebound season. He didn't. Dozier was always a bit sketchy in terms of his performance. His fly ball distance was warning track +3 feet. When those 3 extra feet went away, his home runs turned into warning track outs. Nobody missed Dozier in 2019 when the Twins made the playoffs. If Polanco wasn't willing to play "hurt" he would have never played in his career, and while he was solid, he wasn't a great value player. I'm glad the Twins traded him, but I'm not happy with how Falvey handled the marketing of Polanco.
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