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bean5302

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Everything posted by bean5302

  1. bean5302
    Come on now... Most infielders through the Twins MiLB development system had a significant amount of their time spread around the diamond during their development with poor error rates, and it's often the case they see a plug 'n play style defense at the MLB level afterwards. Gordon, Lewis, Polanco, Martin, Escobar, Prato, Severino, Steer, Castro just off the top of my head... It's not hard to find examples of infielders being shifted all over the place. There are various reasons to shift players around, but "positional flexibility" at the MLB level is not a valid one for potential every day players IMHO as it just damages the perceived value of the player on the market and produces a lot of poor defense. Btw, Julien MiLB (18G at LF, 23G at 3B, 167G at 2B, 21G at 1B). Definitely solidified at 2B, but not without playing him all over the field after he was a primary 3B in college. YMMV on your own personal opinions.
  2. bean5302
    Brooks Lee has quite a bit to prove, but some fans are really, really whipped up into a froth about him. Lee didn't hit last year in AAA and he didn't hit from the right side of the plate at all. As for his amazing Spring Training (which means little) .261/.292/.391 OPS .683 isn't impressive, and 1 BB in 24 plate appearances against dubious levels of pitcher competition isn't what I'd want to see. Things Brooks Lee has going for him: Excellent baseball IQ, solid fundamentals, good hit tool, still very young with room to adjust and improve. Things which may prevent Lee from being an every day player in MLB: Below average athleticism, mediocre power, can't hit LHP right now 2023 AAA Level = .731 OPS (wRC+ 78) <--- this is very poor. All levels vs. LHP .603 OPS, .106 ISO, 3.7% BB, 23.9% K <--- can't hit from right side of plate All levels vs. RHP .860 OPS, .207 ISO, 11.4% BB, 14.1% K Austin Martin was absolutely considered a higher ceiling and higher floor than Brooks Lee when the Twins acquired him. Better hit tool. More athletic. Prospects are just that.
  3. bean5302
    The only time I've had somebody intentionally get physical with me or actually verbally assault me was AT&T (now Oracle Park). The Twins were on pace to lose like 100 games at the time and the Giants were en route to the playoffs. I was thinking wtf?... "really? the Twins? that's the team on pace to lose 100 games you've never even played a meaningful game against? that's the team/fanbase you're enraged at?" after I was randomly shoulder checked while walking the concourse back to my seat with some food, and some dude was like "f_____ Twins fans, get out of here!" or something like that. It was a real eye opener as to why fans out there have gone to the E.R. after Bay Area/L.A. sports events. A little fun banter, sure. I've had that at the Pepsi Center following Wild @ Avs games, etc. Never had anybody randomly get legitimately angry or aggressive with me at any of the dozens (if not 100s) of out of town games I've attended over the years. That said, I've been to a few Twins @ Giants games over the years. Nice stadium, great location, overrated food IMHO, and almost universally good experiences.
  4. bean5302
    The history of developing quality defenders, especially under Falvey, is very poor, IMHO. How often do we see a player assigned to essentially a single position where they earn every day reps coming up through the system? It's a rhetorical question since the answer is pretty much never. I read a lot of comments about Julien improving rapidly, and I don't think it's any coincidence the improvement came with practice and repetition at a single position, do you? But how often do the Twins stick with that approach? Almost never. Players are treated as plug-n-play for the most part. I don't think it's a coincidence Twins MiLBs very often put up terrible fielding percentages in the infield compared to their quality prospect peers, either. I'm going to nip this in the bud before people who hate the concept of fielding percentage being valuable... it's incredibly important. A high error rate wipes out any perceived ceiling on a player's defense. Fielding percentage is not generally a great indicator of overall defensive value at the MLB level; however, that's because there is often so little difference in fielding percentage between great or below average that it's not more valuable than range or arm. i.e. Top quartile in MLB for qualified MLB SS ended at .985. 3rd quartile started at .979 in 2023. Over 1200 innings, that's like 2-3 errors. Not nearly as valuable as range or arm. Twins infielders often post fielding percentages near .900 in the minors which is more like a projected difference of 30 errors (that's worth more than 30 OAA for the trendiest metrics folks). Martin's defense improved dramatically in AAA last year when assigned to 2B rather than floating all over the diamond like the Twins had him doing. Again, not a coincidence, but here we are talking about putting him all over the field as a utility player again. How damaging was this to Nick Gordon? How massively did it hurt Eduardo Escobar's trade value in 2018 vs. leaving him at SS? How much has this "flexibility" mindedness stunted the defensive development of players? It's hard to say, but on thing is for certain, too often Twins prospects come to the big show with reputations as inept defenders. While probably a bit grating, I stand by my position this Twins FO has put a premium on quantity (perceived flexibility) over quality (actually any good at playing the position).
  5. bean5302
    Sure seems like HS draft pitchers blow a UCL out like clockwork within a year or two of the draft. Probably contributes to the feeling of wait. If a HS pitcher is going to be good, they generally move fast. Petty will probably stop in for a cup of coffee with the Reds this year if he pitches like he has been. Avg. high school players 4-5 years Avg. college players 3-4 years Fast high school players 2-3 years Fast college players 1-2 years S-Rank HS = Pitcher Brandon Finnegan (93 days) S-Rank College = 1B Nolan Schanuel (40 days), Pitcher Chris Sale (60 days)
  6. bean5302
    I'm not sure how fast Austin Martin really is. I recall Martin's arm and run tool being a 50-55-ish grade, but he's been excellent at stealing bases so he may have better wheels than the grade (or just excellent base running instincts like Dozier had). I'll wait till we get some more reliable metrics on him to categorically say he can cover CF. In any case, it'd be nice to see Martin get some reps if there's a chance he could be a starter. I think he's mostly viewed as a utility guy at this point so I'm not sure designating a position for him is all that important.
  7. bean5302
    Martin was one of the best fielding 2B in the International League last year, and 2B is a plus defensive position where corner OF is a negative.
  8. bean5302
    Yes, the Twins' preference is to have a whole bunch of players bad at playing all positions. I've seen so many comments about how Julien's defense was improving so much last year after consistent play at 2B. That's pretty natural to expect as the old saying goes, practice makes perfect. It even impacts outfielders as they learn to feel comfortable in the position, where the walls are, how far they can run flat out without running into something, how balls travel from the position's perspective.
  9. bean5302
    Supposedly, he's improved a lot. He was considered pretty rough when the Twins acquired him. Average to a little above average controlling the run game compared to other legit prospects.
  10. bean5302
    Sabato's signing bonus at age 21 ($2.75MM) is more than a working lifetime of the median per capita income in the United States, and it's 15 years of median household income in Rye Brook Village, NY where he's from. He's nearing junior status in communications studies at UNC as well. I expect he'll be fine, even if he wasn't like my dad turning coal into diamonds using only his backside assets, haha
  11. bean5302
    It's not horrible. He's had 16 plate appearances. 12.5% BB rate and an extra base hit.
  12. bean5302
    Staumont technically does have an option left, but I'm not sure the Twins will exercise it unless they feel he just needs more time to adjust from the TOS surgery.
  13. bean5302
    Farmer is a solid SS, even if he doesn't have the cannon arm that Correa has because he has a very sure glove. Farmer is just as rangey as Correa (which is to say not very), but the defensive grades on Farmer at short are solid. That's to be expected as well, since Farmer was brought in by the Twins to be our likely starting shortstop last year before re-signing Correa. Farmer's bat is MLB average. More than adequate for SS, where the ultimate utility guy would likely post 2.5 WAR in a full season.
  14. bean5302
    That's only a $1 bump from last year, but with MSP event parking rates soaring, I'm going to be trying to find some other options this year. It'd be fun to take the North Star, but I don't know as they'll run that route again, just like a few of the Twins express shuttles which vanished after 2019. Unfortunately, Uber/Lyft may not be one of them for Minneapolis if they bail May 1st. But, on a brighter note, Squirrel has palm trees around her, and the Twins pounding the Yankees, no doubt! haha
  15. bean5302
    Alcala has options, plenty of them. It puts him as the odd man out for opening day without injuries or maybe the Twins not liking what they're seeing from Topa. We've got quite a few of relievers Falvey picked up from the Island of Misfit Toys, and not all of them are likely to find homes on the 26 man. Plus injuries are inevitable so I'm sure Alcala will get some opportunities this year, I just don't think it'll be opening day.
  16. bean5302
    Wonder what the ABC ramps will jump to this year. My guess is $20.
  17. bean5302
    Games played over the past 3 years. Lewis = 70, Qualified 0 seasons Kirilloff = 192, Qualified 0 seasons Buxton = 238, Qualified 0 seasons Kepler = 366, Qualified 0 seasons Correa = 419, Qualified all 3 seasons The biggest drop off in performance from starter to depth is Royce Lewis since I have faith Lewis can put in a full season, but based on his injury history, he's my number one concern. IMHO, Kirilloff is the most likely to miss the most games this year.
  18. bean5302
    Jax is a good reliever, but I think he's probably at his ceiling at this point. Hopefully, his arm will hang in there! I could see Jax improving in higher leverage situations this year which would help his WPA and possibly fans' perceptions.
  19. bean5302
    Wallner was on pace for 4 WAR in a full season last year, owning a wRC+ of 144. There were 11 hitters in MLB at 400 PA or more with a better wRC+ than Wallner, and while there's a lot of swing and miss in his game, there's a lot of stuff to back up his performance. From something I wrote up a couple months ago. wOBA = .377 vs. xwOBA = .376 Max Exit Velocity, he's top 3% in MLB, the 70+ power is real. His O-swing rate is well above average. His O-contact rate is well above average. He's top 20% in MLB walk rate. It's not like he swings wildly at junk all the time. It results in his overall contact and swinging strike rate being right in line with some pretty good players like Bryce Harper, J.D. Martinez, and Fernando Tatis. He was basically Bryce Harper at the plate last year (wRC+ 142 Harper, 144 Wallner), and Wallner's 2022-2023 MiLB splits showed he crushed lefties. Not sure why he wasn't given regular plate appearances against them at the MLB level, but it'd be good to see him prove those performances.
  20. bean5302
    Curious the article overlooks Correa's -3 OAA in 2022... OAA has a tendency to swing wildly from year to year, and Correa follows the trend. In any case, Correa wasn't able to get in meaningful work until December so there's probably not a reason to expect his range to improve. Quick reflexes, a sure glove and a cannon arm give Correa a nice floor at SS, but his sprint speed has dropped off a lot from early in his career. I expect Correa to have a huge bounce back year at the plate and for him to at least be an average fielder at SS. A nice 4-5 WAR campaign as you'd expect from an All Star caliber position player.
  21. bean5302
    Kirilloff obviously has his huge fans, but the front office has taken several steps recently that show they do not believe in him. This is not me declaring Kirilloff some sort of lost cause. This is my interpretation of what appears be a lack of faith and commitment to the player based on quotes and transactions from the front office. First, declaring he's not an outfielder candidate. If they believed Kirilloff's bat was going to play, the Twins have proven defense isn't a critical component to opportunity. Second, picking up a pretty low ceiling guy in Santana to play 1B eliminating Kirilloff's only viable full time defensive position. Third, essentially declaring Santana as the every day starting 1B who will not be platooned, wiping out Kirilloff's best road to plate appearances. The Athletic has reported they expect Kirilloff will get pretty regular at bats as a DH, but he's going to be platooning there, and quite frankly, Jose Miranda owned a wRC+ of 110 in 344 PA against righties in 2022 . As I mentioned, but I think people were so mad they didn't read, I'd like Kirilloff in a platoon split with Santana because Kirilloff can hit righties, but Santana can't. Miranda (if last year's shoulder actually was the issue) can hit both. In any case, we can cherry pick last year's vs. RHP numbers for Kirilloff, but I don't think 263 plate appearances is the best sample size given it comes with a .368 BABIP. The reality is he doesn't take walks, can't hit left handed pitching, has mediocre power because he hits liners rather than fly balls, and his career wRC+ is 112 in 549 PA with a more reasonable .335 BABIP vs. RHP based on a lackluster .274/.328/.440 OPS .768 (ISO .168). To me, Kirilloff looks like a DH only version of Eric Hosmer who must be platooned, and only plays 80 games a year because of injury. I also think that's what the Twins' front office sees at this point based on how many avenues for Kirilloff to see playing time have been eliminated.
  22. bean5302
    I think "never" is probably appropriate. It's the "now" which is probably out of tune. "Last year or never" was probably more accurate. Kirilloff is really finding himself without guaranteed opportunity at this point so I don't think it's up to him on whether he gets a chance to prove himself. The way things are sounding out of camp, it might be a 50/50 between Miranda and Kirilloff and who looks better in spring training, but I'd still favor Kirilloff getting the platoon with Santana at 1B.
  23. bean5302
    It feels like the Twins have moved on from Kirilloff to me: Falvey said he wasn't considered a potential outfielder and the club brought in a medium floor, low ceiling every day guy in Santana to replace Kirilloff at 1B with Rocco making a comment the best defender gets the most plate appearances, that he doesn't see Santana as a platoon guy (even though Santana can't hit RHP) and the best defender is 99% going to be Santana. At this point, it wouldn't shock me to see Kirilloff relegated to AAA depth like Larnach has been allowing the Twins to get more opportunities for other players they want to get a look at like Austin Martin.
  24. bean5302
    Bailey Ober will be 29 this year, basically the same age as Dylan Bundy was for the Twins a couple years ago... Ober's not a prospect and expecting a major leap in his effectiveness feels far-fetched, but there does seem to be the potential for him to reach his ceiling and stabilize as a back-end #3, high 3's ERA kind of guy worthy of being counted on as a playoff starter. I like the Ober still seems really hungry, and I suspect he has a chip on his shoulder from last year's treatment by the club, but adjustments he makes will be adjusted to by MLB hitters as well.
  25. bean5302
    Chase Petty, Landon Leach, Blayne Enlow, Cade Povich, Steve Hajjar, Connor Prielipp, Matt Canterino. Those are all pretty high draft picks by this front office. Plenty of trade acquisitions, too. Of course most of the Twins draft choices have been traded to sustain the rotation over the past few years, a few have flopped, but only Petty looks like a sure thing (for the Reds) with Canterino possibly working out for the Twins. To be blunt, my perspective is this front office has been far below average at developing starting pitching.
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