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bean5302

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Everything posted by bean5302

  1. bean5302
    Sorry, but you guys are misremembering almost everything about Levi Michael. Lee and Michael were very similar players with similar results. College SS's. First round picks. Switch hitters. Profile as near MLB ready. Limited athleticism expected to probably push both off SS Mediocre power. Lauded hit tools. Twins fans lost their mind in the hype machines which told them what they wanted to hear, that Brooks Lee was a #1 overall pick (he wasn't) MLB #7 https://www.mlb.com/news/final-mlb-mock-draft-2022, CBS #7 https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/news/2022-mlb-mock-draft-orioles-take-termarr-johnson-with-no-1-pick-kumar-rocker-to-padres/ Fangraphs #8 https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2022-mlb-mock-draft/ Let's take a look at some Baseball America and Keith Law pre-draft reviews: Player 1 Player 2 First appearances over AA through first two seasons (cup of coffee + long season) Player 1 - 307 PA .294/.365/.473 OPS .839 wRC+ 119, 10.1% BB, 16.0% K Player 2 - 319 PA .278/.382/.415 OPS .797 wRC+ 130, 11.8% BB, 19.5% K Michael (a23) was 1 year older than Lee (a22) when he started raking in AA. Lee is certainly better than Michael, though it's debatable how much at this stage, but you guys are already basically proclaiming Lee a superstar ready to replace guys in the MLB lineup, and he's only marginally better than a guy who was scouted the same, drafted first round, and had a similar performance to start his upper minors career at a similar age. A guy who never had a single plate appearance in MLB.
  2. bean5302
    Lots of other teams have fringe top-100 prospects as well. Just as easy for David Festa to fall out of the top-100 as it is for another Twins player to sneak in. It's never a bad thing to see Twins player or prospects doing well, and the Twins have quite a few guys who are turning some heads and distracting the scouting world at the moment. Here's hoping I'm wrong about the guys I don't think are as good as they're rated, and that the guys I think are going to be awesome really are, haha.
  3. bean5302
    I definitely expect the Guardians to collapse. I believe they're probably the 4th best team in the AL Central behind the Twins, Royals, and Tigers.
  4. bean5302
    Buyers = teams attempting to improve their on field MLB product for the current year. Standing pat = teams who neither significantly upgrade nor downgrade their current year team. Sellers = teams willing to worsen their on field MLB product for the current year in an attempt to improve future years. The Twins cannot be both buyers and sellers. I expect them to be buyers.
  5. bean5302
    I see Brooks Lee as a slightly better Levi Michael right now. Levi Michael never received a single plate appearance at the MLB level if I recall correctly. Lee's line from AAA last year: 168 PA, .237/.304/.428 OPS .732 wRC+ 78 doesn't impress me. his splits across AA/AAA last year were as LHB = .287/.366/.494 OPS .860 as RHB = .231/.266/.337 OPS .603 So, basically Lee was another lefty platoon bat, if he could even hit well enough to justify a utility role. Unfortunately, it's not like Lee has the raw athleticism to fall back on, either. He's graded as a poor runner with a fringe SS arm so he'd be expected to be more like Eduoard Julien than Royce Lewis in the field, making Lee's defensive utility role somewhat iffy as well. Lee needs a few months of AAA time to prove he's potentially MLB caliber. A month of hitting burned out A+ pitchers on non-roster invites desperately working out for a last chance at an MLB roster in Spring Training isn't enough to get me on board.
  6. bean5302
    Fangraphs has Byron Buxton at #45 of 315 batters with 100+ PA with a 47.9% pull rate with some hacks like Jose Altuve, Rhys Hoskins, Trea Turner, and Christian Yelich well above Buxton. The biggest problem Buxton's had this year is the fastball, and catching up to the fastball in specific. There's an article about it from a few weeks ago around here somewhere... where is it.... here, I found it. Buxton pulling the ball is a good thing right now. It means he's ahead of the pitch, where he needs to adjust his timing to catch up on the fastball, and I expect he'll get there.
  7. bean5302
    Just imagine what fans in here would have to talk about if the strike zone was automated. Nothing. Can't watch the game on TV, can't complain about the umpiring. Game threads would be dead! LOL
  8. bean5302
    They're pressing and they're mad so they take emotional, unprofessional at bats is my guess.
  9. bean5302
    A bunch of different stuff being flung around in here. The Padres are a poorly run franchise. Absolutely. They were being run by a dying owner who was pursuing a dream without regard to profit and loss or financial stability. The owner died in November of last year, and the Padres were forced to cut payroll by MLB because the team was violating rules for liquidity. Essentially, they were in danger of bankruptcy due to negative cash flows -$116MM (last year alone) and a lack of liquid assets. The Twins will never, ever be run in such a reckless manner with the current ownership (group/family). The Diamondbacks are a poorly run franchise. Nope. They would have been in the same position as the Twins this year if they had buckled to Bally Sports/Diamond Sports last year. Instead, the Diamondbacks didn't blink and refused to agree to the deal they were being presented. They decided it would be best to go to MLB. Existing Cable TV subscribers were also given a special channel to watch the games, and MLB.tv subscriptions for in market games cost $19.99/mo. https://www.mlb.com/press-release/press-release-mlb-to-produce-distribute-arizona-diamondbacks-games-july-18-2023 The Twins made a horrible choice in agreeing to terms with Bally Sports North/Diamond Sports. The group was already disreputable, but Dave St. Peter and ownership jumped on board yet again for a ride on a the bait-n-switch Tilt a Whirl with Bally's selling their latest Fyre Festival which turned out to be all smoke and mirrors when Comcast gave a swift kick in the gonads to the demands of the apparently Billy McFarland run Bally Sports groups. There is a perpetrator here (Diamond Sports/Bally). There is one stupid guy facilitator party here (Twins). There is one real victim here (Twins fanbase)
  10. bean5302
    Side note. Brent Rooker (who most folks on this site insist is a AAAA, journeyman, flash in the pan type) is sitting at .279/.368/.553 OPS .921 wRC+ 165. His xwOBA (.392) is right in line with his actual production (.396).
  11. bean5302
    I know, but I was low on time! LOL
  12. bean5302
    Paddack was back throwing 94-95mph today, but I think what you see is what you get, a back end rotation arm. Coming into today, Paddack owned a 4.27 career ERA, and it certainly didn't get better despite the fWAR loving his sparkling 1.13 FIP on the day. Twins scored 5 so the offense did it's job by the end of the game in terms of run production, anyway. I just cannot understand why the Twins lineup refuses to take professional at bats in high pressure games. FIRE GARY!
  13. bean5302
    Yeah, I'm very high on Wallner, and I thought he was a sure fire scrub before he learned how to take walk one day a couple years ago, lol. I believe it'll depend on his mental state, but the way he covered the plate last year, how he wasn't weak against really any pitches and how much power he showed left me highly impressed. I found he was pretty similar at the plate to Bryce Harper in a lot of ways. Wallner's weak inside against pitches, but he crowds the plate so hard it's almost a given. If he turns into a dud, I'll be surprised and highly disappointed.
  14. bean5302
    Yes. I believe Wallner is that much better than Alonso. He'll be the wRC+ 145 hitter he showed last year, and perhaps better still.
  15. bean5302
    Vazquez is a horrible, terrible, awful catcher because he's the worst player in MLB at 70% of his job. FWIW, as I said, there were other deals available. Vazquez is a boat anchor on the Twins' win column.
  16. bean5302
    153 plate appearances isn't that lengthy for a veteran player like Buxton. I mean, that's all it's generally taken for fans to declare him an MVP favorite when Buxton goes on a hot streak, but I've never bought into it. I think Buxton will finish up the year at a wRC+ of around 120, which is what I think fans should have been expecting from him since 2019. His first 10 games back from the IL was .258/.324/.516 OPS .840 wRC+ 138. He's just a streaky hitter. Lots of K's, crappy OBP, lots of power.
  17. bean5302
    Oh, in case anybody is wondering. It's any and all baseball from kids playing on a sand lot in Korea to MLB.
  18. bean5302
    I wouldn't want Alonso; feel free to read my posts on the subject. Depends on the starter, doesn't it? Are they a rental? Are they a multi-year guy? Is the ownership willing to acquire $10MM of salary at the deadline? (I bet they are).
  19. bean5302
    Addiction is not an acceptable excuse for behavior in my book, and this punishment will serve as notice to other players. Unfortunately, there's a pretty narrow path between unfair punishment and encouragement of damaging behavior. When it comes to betting on ANY baseball, it's cut and dried.
  20. bean5302
    I demand a spreadsheet with graph.
  21. bean5302
    The Twins are one pitcher away from being a dangerous World Series caliber team. I don't know why people are so negative around here. If the season ended today, the Twins are in the playoffs. They have an outstanding bullpen, some good mid rotation pitchers, and a lineup which is already dangerous, and getting better. The 1987 Twins team sucked. Viola + Blyleven, Hrbek + Puckett. That's all the team had. The rest of the starters were weak at the plate or pretty much role players.
  22. bean5302
    If Falvey had to, packaged prospects to dump his salary, but I don't think it would have taken much. Vazquez is worthless at this point, but before the season, the Twins could have picked up Joey Bart from San Francisco as an adequate backup, sent Vazquez and a 15-20 grade prospect. Obviously, that trade would look especially good in hindsight, but there were other options of a similar nature.
  23. bean5302
    I've stated this time and again. Falvey blew $20MM on backups and fringy platoon guys while keeping Kepler and Vazquez costing us another $20MM of emergency spending reserves. It's Falvey's job to know what his budget is and what he needs. 1) Starting caliber center fielder to back up Byron Buxton (fail) 2) RHH power bat (fail) 3) Front end starter (fail) Sonny Gray is earning $10MM this year. 3.00 ERA, 2.64 FIP, 2.48 xFIP. 12.16 K/9, 2.37 BB/9 EASILY better than any pitcher we have. JD Martinez is earning $4.5MM this year.
  24. bean5302
    Since I'm not going to pay money for baseballtradevalues, I'll go ahead and estimate that one: Alonso = July30+ = 1.0 WAR = $8MM, assuming the Mets eat Alonso's salary. Gonzalez is probably enough to get Alonso IMHO. Somebody might be willing to overpay for him, though. Personally, I expect Wallner/Larnach to be far better than Alonso at this point.
  25. bean5302
    The Twins honestly need a legitimate long term every day outfielder with the ability to start at CF. The only outfielder they have in the system who might be able to do that in the relative near future is probably Emmanuel Rodriguez. The closest the Twins might have otherwise is DaShawn Keirsey, but I don't think he's going to be any better than Austin Martin or Andrew Stephenson, but it's a good time to give him a shot, I guess? I keep looking at Larnach's falling stat line wondering if the bubble has burst as I'd already written him off as a 1.0-1.5 WAR outfielder. Good enough as a backup or on a team who just needs a guy who won't kill you if he plays every day. 01-10: .394/.447/.636 OPS 1.096, 10.5% BB, 21.1% K, 93.9mph EV, 11.5% Barrel, 53.8% Hard 11-20: .235/.278/.324 OPS .601, 5.6% BB, 25.0% K, 95.0mph EV, 8.0% Barrel, 56.0% Hard 21-30: .162/.244/.405 OPS .649, 9.8% BB, 17.1% K, 94.5mph EV, 13.3% Barrel, 50.0% Hard I expanded Larnach's sample size to a full season based on the approximate percentage of pitches he'd see of each type (over 5% stuff only) He's just continued doing stuff he's never done before. His K rate is WAY down, and he's hitting breaking stuff better than ever. He's been unreal against the 4 seamer, and I can't see how that is sustainable, but as his sample size grows, he's continuing to rake. He's got to stay up.
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