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bean5302

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Everything posted by bean5302

  1. bean5302
    I felt the same way most other felt. You compared the struggles of a now highly proven, great MLB pitcher who had a lot of struggles in his first MLB opportunity (Berrios) to Festa's struggles leading to 2 presumptions. 1) Any prospect can struggle because Berrios did 2) Any prospect can overcome the struggle because Berrios did <--- this is the part where Berrios gets directly compared to Festa
  2. bean5302
    I'm not ready to completely stick a fork in Festa because there's no need to do that. He'll have 2 more option years. There's also no chance I'd call his number again this year, and I never expect him to be good in an MLB rotation. He's got to find a 3rd MLB caliber pitch because he has an average fastball since it only has vertical movement, and a good slider. My rotation depth chart looks like this: Boushley > Matthews (NR) > Dobnak (NR) > Varland > Morris (NR) > Festa at the moment. @KirbyDome89 is dead on with his assessment about Berrios' performance in the minors. Berrios was consistently dominant and he was a universal top 30 prospect. #19 for MLB. #12 for Fangraphs, etc before he dominated AAA in 2016. Day in, day out. Berrios (a22) had only 3 starts in 17 AAA (18%) appearances where his FIP was north of 4.04 with none over 5.29. His final 4 starts before call up? 4 GS, 28.0 IP (7.0 avg), 2.25 ERA, 1.88 FIP, 12.86 K/9, 1.93 BB/9. Festa's been a Fangraphs velo darling who's flirted with top 100 status in some circles despite never being all that great of a results pitcher. Like Jim Hoey, though, a 100mph straight ball is still something MLB hitters will crush. Comparing Festa's a24 second go 'round in AAA season to Berrios' age 22 season. 14 GS 59.2 IP (4.1 avg), with 7 games (50%) having an FIP of 4.27 or higher, and 4 which were 6.27+. His last 4 starts? 20.2 IP (avg 5.0), 5.66 ERA, 4.30 FIP, 13.12 K/9, 3.62 BB/9. The two prospects weren't remotely similar. Berrios had multiple plus to plus-plus pitches and great control. He was an elite prospect with consistently dominant performances. Festa has none of that.
  3. bean5302
    Not with another year on his contract and and a solid history out of the 'pen. Maeda's velocity is down again this year. That doesn't play well for him. He needs that FB averaging 91-92 to be great. That said, he's given them about 50% solid starts this year, and some blow ups as well. They're only paying him back end rotation money so it's not that bad.
  4. bean5302
    I don't agree with him earning the promotion. He got the promotion because it was time to check him out against MLB hitters, not because he forced his way onto the roster. Festa was highly inconsistent with a lot of red flags with the Saints. Unlike Woods-Richardson, though, Festa's stuff just didn't play. Unfortunately for Festa, I don't think he was auditioning for next year or some point in the future. In my opinion, Paddack was probably slated to go to the bullpen if Festa pitched well, and the very rare opportunity wasn't capitalized. I say the opportunity was so rare because it represented potentially the second permanent shift in the depth chart, sending a MiLB to supplant a veteran. Varland lost his job to SWR, and Paddack could very well have lost his job to Festa. The best news for the Twins is they've now seen Varland and Festa in the rotation, and they should have a good feel for the likelihood they'll be able to count on those guys as rotation depth for the future. My opinion is a solid "no." There are other options in the MiLB system like Matthews and Morris who are already in the upper minors and seeing their stock rise fast with consistent domination.
  5. bean5302
    Kirilloff is going to be non-tendered at the end of the year so there's no worry about seeing him in the lineup next year. Larnach isn't ideal as a planned every day starter, though he's not a black hole at probably a 1.0-1.5 WAR kinda guy. While the article talks about him improving his approach vs. breaking/offspeed stuff, as the sample size grows, it looks a lot more like he's only changed his approach rather than improving the results. Out of options for next year, Larnach could be traded. Emmanuel Rodriguez probably has home as a starter in the outfield this time next year. I can only guess the article expects Jose Miranda to be the DH since Julien is the starting 1B. I'm not sure about Julien's future outlook as he's so redundant at this point. I'd be a little surprised if the Twins sold low on him before the trade deadline, but I don't think Julien has a good path back to regular playing time right now having been soundly leapfrogged by Lee so if Julien rebounds and finds his power stroke, I could see the Twins trading him. Constructing a roster with what the Twins have in their system right now: C - Jeffers 1B - Miranda 2B - Lee 3B - Lewis SS - Correa LF - Rodriguez CF - Buxton RF - Wallner DH - Severino BC - Vazquez UI - Castro UO - Larnach UO - Martin
  6. bean5302
    I'd suggest an end to the Trevor Bauer discussion in the thread. People are almost exclusively divided into two highly passionate camps so it's just going to devolve into a thread war. I think the Twins do have a glaring and obvious need when it comes to playoff viability. That's an ace. They don't have one. They need one if they're planning to advance significantly in the playoffs.
  7. bean5302
    I've already seen all I need to see with Festa for a while. The Tigers are not a good hitting ball club and they just destroyed what he was offering. Festa also struggled against the Diamondbacks. It's easy to back up the eye test with pitch info. Festa does not have great control, his changeup is 30 grade, a show me pitch, really. Festa was able to get AAA hitters out with an average MLB caliber fastball and a very good slider, but the changeup is honestly just batting practice at the MLB level. Festa's getting ahead in the count with a 60-70% first pitch strike rate, and he's throwing a ton of strikes (too many), but his stuff just doesn't fool MLB hitters.
  8. bean5302
    I don't believe it's at all luck related for Royce at this point. It might be something modifiable, but the sheer glut of injuries he accumulates would require some astronomical odds.
  9. bean5302
    Dobnak is a sunk cost for next year at $3MM, but it's clear he's terribly far down the depth chart. Festa (40 man) > Varland (40 man) > Boushley (40 man) > Dobnak is how I'd rate the starter priority. The biggest issue with Dobnak wasn't necessarily his performance, but his time on the IL. He made 26 starts and 31 appearances last year, and he's been durable again this year, on pace for 150 innings or so. I don't think a PTBNL or a 20-30 org prospect is an overpay for Dobnak at his $3MM considering the team options which come with him. I agree with you the Rockies would likely be a very good fit for him, and given he's only under contract through next year (without exercising options), I think he's to the point where the sunk costs are largely evaporated so the Twins should be interested in moving him.
  10. bean5302
    Nope. Not currently. Way back in the day there were a few in Cuba, and within the last 20 years, Canada. I think the Blue Jays' A+ team is the only one which operates outside the US right now. Aside from the DSL stuff, anyway.
  11. bean5302
    The adductor strains generally take 3-6 weeks to heal up. Given how the team handles him, Royce is probably out until after the trade deadline. Makes sense to call up Lee, with Julien still struggling at AAA. Yes, I'm aware Julien is technically above average production down there thanks to a .462 OBP, but he has absolutely zero power. Has literally 1 extra base hit in his last 13 games (a double). Clearly, that's not going to cut it with his profile at the MLB level.
  12. bean5302
    Yep, getting absolutely insane with the Royce Lewis injury train at this point.
  13. bean5302
    I have to be honest, Dobnak has earned an opportunity somewhere. I don't think he's going to get it with the Twins, but he's probably a serviceable #5 for somebody right now. Since he's not on the 40 man, and he can't choose MiLB free agency next year without forfeiting his $3MM 2025 contract if he does, it's a bad spot for him. Boushley has kind of occupied Dobnak's position, taking over the veteran depth starter role on the 40 man. Elite ground ball rate, and solid at preventing home runs this year, Dobnak has elevated his K rate (at the cost of more walks). His 3.91 ERA is well above average in the International League, ranking 28th of 103 pitchers with 40+ innings this year and a 4.74 ERA median. Given his MLB experience, hopefully, Dobber gets a chance. He's under team control through 2028 for cheap if the team picks up his 2026 - $6MM, 2027 - $7MM, 2028 - $8.5MM. If he can serve as a back end rotation arm somewhere, it's likely those options are picked up.
  14. bean5302
    Can they redesignate a pitcher as a position player, call them up as a position player and still let them pitch in games that are out of control? LOL, I think they'd probably be able to get away with that...
  15. bean5302
    Severino - .425/.544/.688 OPS 1.231 wRC+ 216, 20.4% BB, 18.4% K 23G, 103 PA, 15G above wRC+ 100, RBI = 19 Wallner - .324/.403/.724 OPS 1.127, wRC+ 179, 10.9% BB, 27.7% K 26G, 119 PA, 17G above wRC+ 100, RBI = 28 Wallner has the home runs and a huge RBI advantage with a bunch of games where he carried the win, but the hitter of the month should have gone to Severino. Severino is slowly bringing his overall line into respectability.
  16. bean5302
    Line drives have a .675 BABIP Fly balls have a .250 BABIP Ground balls have a .200 BABIP Hit a lot of line drives and your BABIP is much higher.
  17. bean5302
    I think we can all agree, though, thank whatever deity, good fortune star, etc. we didn't get Baez.
  18. bean5302
    Steer has been playing out of position. OAA is literally the worst defensive metric you can find without 2-3 years of consistent play time. It's a wild metric like catcher framing. No, it's not early.
  19. bean5302
    I think the Twins are obsessed with "cutting edge" stuff in general. The sweeper is the most glaring example that comes to mind right now.
  20. bean5302
    I feel like this article was just written a couple weeks ago? This time, we've conveniently left Marcus Semien out of this article. He was a shortstop, but he was asked to slide over to 2B where his defensive numbers say he'd still be a solid shortstop. He has been the best contract handed out. Truth is, Correa wasn't on the radar in 2022, like at all. Boras called Falvey and offered him the deal after everybody else had already signed. Falvey got approval from the Pohlad's and tada! 3 years $105MM with what everybody expected was a 1 year $35MM deal as Correa was going to opt out barring catastrophe. Last year is a different story. Trea Turner, Dansby Swanson, Xander Boegaerts, Carlos Correa were the big 4. The Twins offered 10yrs $285MM out of the gate so they were certainly in play. MLBTR predicted 9yrs $288MM for Correa in November. Ultimately, everybody knows how things played out. Of the shortstops available last year, Correa's final contract with the Twins is looking by far the best, IMHO.
  21. bean5302
    MRI is scheduled. I'm guessing they'll know exactly what they're doing as soon as it comes back. Lewis said he wasn't optimistic.
  22. bean5302
    Trevor Larnach hits a home run after sucking for two months: TD publishes a bunch of articles about how he's turned a corner, LOL.
  23. bean5302
    The sinker fell out of favor with the launch angle revolution. Guys had been increasingly swinging their bats like golf clubs to try and lift balls into the seats. An improperly placed sinker can put itself directly into the "Tiger Uppercut" whereas, say, 10 years ago, the flatter swings designed to hit more line drives and put the ball into play would make weak contact against the pitch. Obviously, putting any pitch in a location the batter isn't likely to put a good swing on it can make the pitch effective, but the sinker just became a dangerous gopher ball machine IMHO. Of course things may be changing again with the elimination of the extreme shift. Everything goes in circles.
  24. bean5302
    If Lewis' groin was so tight he couldn't run, he's probably out till after the All Star Break.
  25. bean5302
    The Twins paid for Manuel Margot to back up Buxton, though. Castro can't make the point moot because Margot is already on the roster.
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