bean5302

Wonder what the ABC ramps will jump to this year. My guess is $20.

Games played over the past 3 years. Lewis = 70, Qualified 0 seasons Kirilloff = 192, Qualified 0 seasons Buxton = 238, Qualified 0 seasons Kepler = 366, Qualified 0 seasons Correa = 419, Qualified all 3 seasons The biggest drop off in performance from starter to depth is Royce Lewis since I have faith Lewis can put in a full season, but based on his injury history, he's my number one concern. IMHO, Kirilloff is the most likely to miss the most games this year.

Jax is a good reliever, but I think he's probably at his ceiling at this point. Hopefully, his arm will hang in there! I could see Jax improving in higher leverage situations this year which would help his WPA and possibly fans' perceptions.

Wallner was on pace for 4 WAR in a full season last year, owning a wRC+ of 144. There were 11 hitters in MLB at 400 PA or more with a better wRC+ than Wallner, and while there's a lot of swing and miss in his game, there's a lot of stuff to back up his performance. From something I wrote up a couple months ago. wOBA = .377 vs. xwOBA = .376 Max Exit Velocity, he's top 3% in MLB, the 70+ power is real. His O-swing rate is well above average. His O-contact rate is well above average. He's top 20% in MLB walk rate. It's not like he swings wildly at junk all the time. It results in his overall contact and swinging strike rate being right in line with some pretty good players like Bryce Harper, J.D. Martinez, and Fernando Tatis. He was basically Bryce Harper at the plate last year (wRC+ 142 Harper, 144 Wallner), and Wallner's 2022-2023 MiLB splits showed he crushed lefties. Not sure why he wasn't given regular plate appearances against them at the MLB level, but it'd be good to see him prove those performances.

Curious the article overlooks Correa's -3 OAA in 2022... OAA has a tendency to swing wildly from year to year, and Correa follows the trend. In any case, Correa wasn't able to get in meaningful work until December so there's probably not a reason to expect his range to improve. Quick reflexes, a sure glove and a cannon arm give Correa a nice floor at SS, but his sprint speed has dropped off a lot from early in his career. I expect Correa to have a huge bounce back year at the plate and for him to at least be an average fielder at SS. A nice 4-5 WAR campaign as you'd expect from an All Star caliber position player.

Kirilloff obviously has his huge fans, but the front office has taken several steps recently that show they do not believe in him. This is not me declaring Kirilloff some sort of lost cause. This is my interpretation of what appears be a lack of faith and commitment to the player based on quotes and transactions from the front office. First, declaring he's not an outfielder candidate. If they believed Kirilloff's bat was going to play, the Twins have proven defense isn't a critical component to opportunity. Second, picking up a pretty low ceiling guy in Santana to play 1B eliminating Kirilloff's only viable full time defensive position. Third, essentially declaring Santana as the every day starting 1B who will not be platooned, wiping out Kirilloff's best road to plate appearances. The Athletic has reported they expect Kirilloff will get pretty regular at bats as a DH, but he's going to be platooning there, and quite frankly, Jose Miranda owned a wRC+ of 110 in 344 PA against righties in 2022 . As I mentioned, but I think people were so mad they didn't read, I'd like Kirilloff in a platoon split with Santana because Kirilloff can hit righties, but Santana can't. Miranda (if last year's shoulder actually was the issue) can hit both. In any case, we can cherry pick last year's vs. RHP numbers for Kirilloff, but I don't think 263 plate appearances is the best sample size given it comes with a .368 BABIP. The reality is he doesn't take walks, can't hit left handed pitching, has mediocre power because he hits liners rather than fly balls, and his career wRC+ is 112 in 549 PA with a more reasonable .335 BABIP vs. RHP based on a lackluster .274/.328/.440 OPS .768 (ISO .168). To me, Kirilloff looks like a DH only version of Eric Hosmer who must be platooned, and only plays 80 games a year because of injury. I also think that's what the Twins' front office sees at this point based on how many avenues for Kirilloff to see playing time have been eliminated.

I think "never" is probably appropriate. It's the "now" which is probably out of tune. "Last year or never" was probably more accurate. Kirilloff is really finding himself without guaranteed opportunity at this point so I don't think it's up to him on whether he gets a chance to prove himself. The way things are sounding out of camp, it might be a 50/50 between Miranda and Kirilloff and who looks better in spring training, but I'd still favor Kirilloff getting the platoon with Santana at 1B.

It feels like the Twins have moved on from Kirilloff to me: Falvey said he wasn't considered a potential outfielder and the club brought in a medium floor, low ceiling every day guy in Santana to replace Kirilloff at 1B with Rocco making a comment the best defender gets the most plate appearances, that he doesn't see Santana as a platoon guy (even though Santana can't hit RHP) and the best defender is 99% going to be Santana. At this point, it wouldn't shock me to see Kirilloff relegated to AAA depth like Larnach has been allowing the Twins to get more opportunities for other players they want to get a look at like Austin Martin.

Bailey Ober will be 29 this year, basically the same age as Dylan Bundy was for the Twins a couple years ago... Ober's not a prospect and expecting a major leap in his effectiveness feels far-fetched, but there does seem to be the potential for him to reach his ceiling and stabilize as a back-end #3, high 3's ERA kind of guy worthy of being counted on as a playoff starter. I like the Ober still seems really hungry, and I suspect he has a chip on his shoulder from last year's treatment by the club, but adjustments he makes will be adjusted to by MLB hitters as well.

Chase Petty, Landon Leach, Blayne Enlow, Cade Povich, Steve Hajjar, Connor Prielipp, Matt Canterino. Those are all pretty high draft picks by this front office. Plenty of trade acquisitions, too. Of course most of the Twins draft choices have been traded to sustain the rotation over the past few years, a few have flopped, but only Petty looks like a sure thing (for the Reds) with Canterino possibly working out for the Twins. To be blunt, my perspective is this front office has been far below average at developing starting pitching.

I've got WAY more faith in Wallner than Julien. Like WAY more. Why? 1. Every single pitch type thrown more than 5% to Wallner, he posted neutral to positive values. 2. Wallner has elite power. 3. Wallner mashed lefties in the minors. 4. Wallner's strike zone heat maps. There is a large portion of the strike zone where Wallner has been very successful, and he hit all types of pitches. That's not the kind of batter who has obvious holes for pitchers to exploit to the point I'd expect him to fall down to even league average. He's weak inside, but he crowds the plate so it's natural to expect that, and a miss inside equals a HBP so he gets on base that way. I don't agree with the philosophy, just stating it was a thing last year.

Yeah. Ober is the biggest starting pitcher development success story in recent years. Berrios was the previous. I was hoping for Winder, but the shoulder pretty much wiped his rotation projection out.

I'll have to defer to the Twins coaching and management on Duran's ability to handle a starter workload, but if they believe he might be able to then yes, I'd like to see him in the rotation. But not mid-year. To me, that's just asking for injury. I'm interested in him in the rotation simply because the upside is enormous, and Duran was only in the bullpen because he was coming back from Tommy John. I saw some comments about his velocity. Guy throws 102 average... if he has to take it all the way down to 99mph to get 6 innings and only reach back for 104 every once in a while, I'm not sure it matters that much. I did want to point a little something out on Canterino. He has not been cleared for 125 innings. His surgeon, Dr. Keith Meister, said 125 innings wasn't out of the question from a medical standpoint. 125 innings should be looked at as absolute ceiling if everything goes perfect throughout the season. Also, there's no guarantee his stuff plays at the MLB level. He was walking 5.77 per 9 innings at AA in 2022. His K rate dropped from 18.43 to 13.11 from A+ to AA and his BB rate skyrocketed from 1.71 to 5.77 at the same time. Generally, gotta throw some strikes at the MLB level.

I do think it's rare superstar players continue to play defensive premium positions when they can no longer handle them. It's just while they're still good at their position, teams aren't interested in moving them for maybes. There are a few instances where teams make genuinely poor baseball decisions to show favoritism to their franchise face (A-Rod at 3rd and Jeter remaining at SS), but I think most players are moved once they're a defensive liability. Kirby Puckett moving to RF instead of CF for example. Not sure how Mookie Betts comes into the conversation, though? In Boston, he wasn't able to displace Red Sox star Dustin Pedroia at 2B so he was moved to RF. After he was traded to the Dodgers, he wouldn't have been home grown talent, and the Dodgers pushed him to 2B because of injuries, and that was Betts' original position. Really, all the speculation on this is about a way to fit Brooks Lee onto the roster with lots of sky high expectations of how great Lee is going to be. I consider Brooks Lee to be comparable to Austin Martin 2 years ago in terms of projection. Fans could slow their roll a bit, haha.

I don't consider Headrick more than MiLB roster filler. A 1.30 WHIP and mid 4's ERA doesn't project well to the MLB level. I wouldn't bat an eye if the Twins DFA'd him.

Teams don't usually push superstar players off their positions, especially home grown face of the franchise style talent. Moving Royce Lewis around the diamond probably doesn't happen until at least next season, and it'll be dependent on a number of other things, I'd think.

Not really. Early on in the season Lewis was getting lucky, but the way he performed later was the real deal. Lewis hung out at an xwOBA north of .480 for the last 125 or so PA of the season. Ultra elite hitting. As the season progressed, Lewis consistently got better and better.

The biggest question about 2B in 2024 is Julien. How does his sophomore campaign at the MLB level go, how does his defense look? Regardless of whether or not Julien has worked hard on his hitting against lefties, Baldelli has very much loved platooning so I'm not sure Julien will be given a lot of opportunities there. Julien has limited range, and a limited arm, and his swing has a lot of holes in the zone. That said, Julien understands his weak areas at the plate and uses his exceptional plate discipline to maximize his offensive value. I have reservations about what pitchers are going to be able to do with the scouting reports which are undoubtedly going to continue to evolve on Julien. If pitchers aren't able to successfully attack Julien this year, he'll probably solidify himself as a 3-4 WAR second baseman. An equal to the departing Polanco, and a truly valuable MLB player. Lee was drafted because of how polished he was, and his very high baseball IQ. There was a rare high floor type of guy just out of high school. His instincts and fundamentals are excellent, but it's yet to be seen whether or not he'll develop beyond his floor. He was 22 until a few days ago, and he's not on the 40 man roster. There's plenty of time for Lee to develop a little more power, and lift the ball into the air a little more. Lee is an afterthought for me at the moment, and I'd think he's well down on the depth chart. Julien, Farmer, Castro, Martin, Lee. Something like that for 2B, and I don't think the Twins would add Lee to the 40 man and the 26 man to have him ride the bench 1/2 the time. Let's not forget, it wasn't that long ago Austin Martin was considered just as much of a sure thing as people think Lee is right now. Best hit tool in the 2020 draft. excellent plate discipline, athletic enough to potentially play CF or stretch at SS, 5th overall draft selection, but projected to go #1-2 overall. Two years later, Martin was viewed as a probable utility guy.

I think Prato has the best shot of sneaking onto the roster, but that chance is like 0.5%. There's so much depth right now as Falvey has built up another giant logjam blocking prospects with cheap high floor guys. This front office feels like it's quick to write a player off, and once done, the chances of that player getting a fresh look and a shot are astronomical. For that reason, Helman (near a28) and Goodrum seem like no chance type of guys. Though both of those players would likely come with low ceilings so they'd be easy to DFA once added to the roster. Prato's got a good bat, certainly better than what some people give him credit for, and he's got good speed, though the Twins never looked at him in CF and had him as a 3B/2B player almost exclusively. While his start in AA last year was awful, it came with an impossibly poor .217 BABIP. Prato has been a wRC+ 125ish guy through his last few stops and years, and if he manages to recognize MLB pitches, he'll likely carry a very high OBP thanks to plate discipline and being a line drive type of guy who uses the whole field. That said, looking at his batted ball data does show one obvious Perkins restaurant sized giant red flag, and that's his pop-up rate. Batted ball data in the minors is tough to rely upon, though. It's worth noting the Twins left him off the 40 man and exposed him to the rule 5 draft despite that .990 OPS and solid defense in St. Paul last year. Injuries are the only way these guys would get consideration for a spot on the roster, and even if they did make the roster, I suspect Baldelli would deploy them on an emergency use basis only.

Martin is on the 40 man roster. Same spot as Miranda so neither of those guys would be non-roster guys sneaking onto the 26 man.

Outs Above Average has a glaring issue. Positioning. A fielder who positions themselves well and thus doesn't have to make as many highlight reel plays doesn't get credited for it. OAA is more like a defensive ceiling, a way to rate a player's physical capabilities, especially when it comes to infielders. It's also the least stable of the metrics IMHO, often wildly swinging back and forth from year to year for the same player. Of course, the older metrics have their issues as well. Range Factor cares only how many plays were made by a fielder compared to other fielders in the league. For example, a team which deploys the shift a lot would likely see their shortstop making far more plays than they normally would. Thus, their RF/9 would potentially be inflated vs. the league average. Older Zone Ratings section up the field into tons of little zones and assign some "zones" for each position to cover. These methodologies don't account for shifts, holding defenders accountable to cover their sections of the field, regardless of whether or not the fielder is actually present to make the play, and the metric doesn't care about batted ball data, like how hard balls are hit or the kind of hit it is. Ultimate zone rating does use batted ball data. How hard the ball is hit. Where the ball is hit. The type of batted ball, and it throws out the plays where there is a defensive shift on as those shifts change the zones a player is responsible for; however, UZR also makes assumptions on normal shifting based on base runners and situational data. In addition, UZR has park factors. Arm, double play rates, etc are also included. Players are bonused for making what should be a difficult play for the position they're playing and negative bonuses if they flub what should be an easy play for the position based on their peers' performances. The bonuses are somewhat limited, having an impact sort of like grading on a a curve. It then compares how many outs a player records vs. the league average players. UZR is an incredibly sophisticated metric, not some throwback to a bygone era. It is not your grandpa's old "Zone Rating" Defensive Runs Saved also uses the same BIS batted ball data like Ultimate Zone Rating, but it's passively active for shifts by recompiling shift data for the entire team. DRS is also less forgiving on plus/minus calculations penalizing more for not making what would be considered a routine play and bonusing more for making a play which would be considered difficult based on the position and the batted ball data. DRS also incorporates a ball timer, and has a subjective metric instead of plays being ruled errors or non-errors which are potential advantages over UZR. Like UZR, DRS is also highly sophisticated. Since all the metrics have their flaws, relying on a single metric as gospel is sketchy, and when you have a single metric which stands out opposite of all the rest of the metrics, it seems pretty dubious to ignore the discrepancies.

The Twins will probably not be 100% healthy with nobody going onto the IL, but also 29 other teams will not be 100% healthy. There's a fair likelihood somebody will be calling and inquiring about guys like Farmer knowing Minnesota has a lot of depth and they were looking to move additional pieces. Still a month before opening day. I'm actually very surprised Falvey wasn't able to move Farmer at his $6MM salary. As a full time player, he's passable as a starting infielder.

Agreed. There's not a lot of room for anybody in the minors to make a huge impact on the positional side of things. Especially given Castro's presence on the roster and his ability to probably play anywhere except catcher. Miranda might have a chance to get some plate appearances as he's blocked by Kirilloff, who has an injury history which is a tale similar to Buxton's. Miranda would be a much better play against right handed pitching because even though Santana is a switch hitter, he's ineffective from the left side. Kinda like Aaron Hicks. Also, from a RH DH perspective, Miranda wouldn't be a terrible fit, though the ceiling on his bat might limit his impact. With a whole lot of what I consider to be questionable starters in the rotation either from an injury history or performance history, I'd think pitchers who can slot into the rotation have a major advantage in terms of potential impact. Woods-Richardson, Varland, and Festa are at the top of my list. If Woods-Richardson's adjustments allow him to throw strikes, he'll have the highest ceiling of the 3 IMHO.

Arraez is a pretty solid fielder at 2B by every single metric except Statcast's stuff. Head to head vs. Polanco and Julien, Arraez beats Polanco in all 5 metrics in 2023 and Julien finishes dead last in 4 of 5 metrics. From a career perspective, Arraez ties Polanco and beats Julien in 4 of 5 metrics again. At the end of the day, Arraez is recording the outs at a better than league average rate at 2B... Arraez vs. Polanco vs. Julien 2023 4.2 vs. (6.3) vs. (7.6) = UZR/150 4.0 vs. 3.0 vs. (7.0) = Rdrs/yr DRS per 1200inn 6.0 vs. (1.0) vs. (11.0) = Rtot/yr Total Zone Runs per 1200inn (11.0) vs. (13.0) vs. 0.0 = OAA per 1200inn 0.02 vs. (0.14) vs. (0.39)= RF/9 - lgRF9Range Factor per 9inn Career (0.4) vs. (8.1) vs. (7.6) = UZR/150 1.0 vs. 1.0 vs. (7.0) = Rdrs/yr DRS per 1200inn 3.0 vs. 0.0 vs. (11.0) = Rtot/yr Total Zone Runs per 1200inn (13) vs. (8) vs. 0.0 = OAA per 1200inn (0.10) vs. 0.06 vs. (0.39) = RF/9 - lgRF9Range Factor per 9inn

Prato managed 300 innings at 2B last year as well. The Twins took a little gamble leaving him off the 40 man, but if he starts things off hot at St. Paul again this year, I'd imagine he'd be on the short list of depth options, too.