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twins_89

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Everything posted by twins_89

  1. twins_89
    Bunday and Archer have been solid signings, but if things had gone better for the organization I think both would have been out of the rotation by July. Injuries to Paddack, Ober, and Winder have really hurt the team. In addition, having none of Balazovic, Woods Richardson, or Canterino pushing for a spot has been a big disappointment. Bundy/Archer have been fine as the 4/5 starters, I just wish that better options had made them expendable.
  2. twins_89
    My guess is that in the next couple of weeks the Twins will fall to 5+ games back in the standings at which point they will shut down Buxton. After that things will get worse, and they will finish 3rd in the AL Central (well out of the playoff picture with a record below .500).
  3. twins_89
    At this point, my guess would be that the Twins have 50/50 odds of making the playoffs. I'd rate the Twins as being roughly on par with the Blue Jays, Mariners, Orioles, Rays, Guardians, and White Sox. I view any 3-game playoff series against those teams as a toss-up. Unfortunately, when it comes to the top teams (Yankees, Astros, Dodgers, and Mets), I think the most likely outcome is the Twins getting swept (with a best case of winning 1 game in a series). To date during the regular season against the Yankees/Astros/Mets, the Twins are 1-8 with the majority of the losses being crushing blowouts.
  4. twins_89
    I think the judgement on Correa could still go either way. If Correa gets hot for the last 54 games and the Twins make the playoffs, his signing will look OK. If he struggles to hit and the team misses the postseason, he will land on the growing list of Twins free agent signings who have been significantly worse than expected.
  5. twins_89
    It's been really great to see Gordon go from being a DFA candidate to a legitimate major league player. If he can improve his outfield defense, he could have a lock on the utility role for the next 5 years with a chance at becoming an everyday player.
  6. twins_89
    I still look at the chances of Correa opting in as extremely remote, likely only happening if he suffers a significant injury before the end of the season. With that said, I would be perfectly happy for him to opt in for one more year where he knows he needs to improve his performance to get paid. I think the Twins are in a good position as long as they don't give him a huge long-term contract,
  7. twins_89
    I'm not sure why Moran is in the minors. It seems extremely likely he would do a better job than Pagan or Duffey.
  8. twins_89
    One one hand, I really like Rodon and think he'd be a great addition. On the other hand, he can opt out after the season, so he is basically a rental. Another factor is that I believe Rodon would get a qualifying offer from the Giants (something a team acquiring him can't do), so any trade package will be increased to account for the lost draft capital. I suspect the rental price will just be to steep in a year where the playoffs are looking iffy at best.
  9. twins_89
    Calling the Twins an obvious playoff team seems like a stretch. There's a very real chance that on trade deadline day the Twins won't be a playoff team based on the current standings.
  10. twins_89
    Compared to past Falvey 1st round picks like Cavaco or Sabato, Brooks Lee is a home run. I have rarely been a fan of the current front office in terms of their 1st round picks, but this is a selection I'm extremely happy with. The last time I thought the team made a great 1st round pick was Larnach in 2018.
  11. twins_89
    They sent Kirilloff down to get on track, and at this point I think it's hard to argue that he hasn't earned a promotion. Over the last 30 days (plus his ABs so far in today's game), Kirilloff has hit 10 HR with a 1.236 OPS in 95 ABs. That's an extended stretch of pretty clearly being too good for the level.
  12. twins_89
    I'm skeptical that Gordon will stay with the Twins. In the outfield, Celestino is a superior option who should be the first in line to fill in for all 3 spots (with Kirilloff an option in RF/LF). In the infield, Arraez seems destined to be the super utility guy who plays every day at one of 1B/2B/3B. If a shortstop is needed for any length of time, Palacios looks like the preferred replacement. In terms of the near future, Steer is also a utility infield option that could be ready as soon as the second half of this season. It's hard for me to see where Gordon is going to find playing time. As far as the active roster, Celestino/Arraez/Miranda are clearly ahead of Gordon and I would guess Steer/Kirilloff will be fairly soon meaning Gordon could be left without a spot.
  13. twins_89
    With Ryan and Winder nearly back, Bundy's upcoming start could be his last with the Twins. Hopefully Gray will also be back in about a week. Gray, Ryan, Ober, Archer, Winder, and Smeltzer should be the rotation going forward.
  14. twins_89
    Not a great time for the Twins bullpen with Stashak out for the year, Alcala having a setback, and Duffey/Thielbar struggling mightily. The team is going to need to find another pitcher or two that can provide some level of consistency in high leverage situations. Megill is probably next in line (mainly because there isn't anyone else).
  15. twins_89
    Garlick is a really good hitter when he faces left handed pitching (1.240 OPS), unfortunately he turns into a pumpkin when there is a right handed pitcher on the mound (.652 OPS).
  16. twins_89
    I came into the season thinking this would be a developmental year for the Twins. It's looking like that will be the case for at least the next couple of months. The team should be able to get a good feel for where the young talent of Kirilloff, Lewis, Miranda, Jeffers, Gordon, Larnach, and Celestino stand in terms of their readiness to play in the majors. The young pitching has looked good (Ryan, Ober, Winder, Duran, Alcala, Jax, Moran, and Sands so far) and if the young position players show they are ready, this team could be set up really well for the long term.
  17. twins_89
    Bundy has one bad inning in 4 starts (that all went 5+ innings), that's far better than I expected. Also, what's up with Duran and Winder? They haven't pitched in almost a week.
  18. twins_89
    I find it sad that pitch framing is a thing that does actually impact baseball games. I'll be extremely happy when the automated strike zone is put into place at the major league level. I'm just not a fan of the pitch framing "skill", where the whole objective is to try and trick the plate umpire.
  19. twins_89
    After watching Duffey today, I'd definitely put him behind Pagan/Duran and probably behind Smith/Thielbar in a confidence ranking.
  20. twins_89
    It will be interesting to see how the first couple of times through the rotation plays out. I'm somewhat expecting Ryan, Ober, Gray, Bundy, Archer, Paddack, and Winder to each throw 4-5 innings a couple of times. My hope is that when the roster size goes back down, the team settles on the 5 guys who have pitched the best and don't give Bundy/Archer a starter slot by default.
  21. twins_89
    My guess is they will see how the team plays the first few months and if the young starters (plus Bundy/Archer) aren't getting the job done the team will make Correa, Rogers, and Gray available (plus any of Sanchez, Duffey, Archer, Bundy, Smith, Urshela, or Sano that have value). I think there's a real possibility that the Twins will have the best position player (Correa), best reliever (Rogers), and one of the top starters (Gray) available at the trade deadline.
  22. twins_89
    Trading Rogers would be a tough move. The Twins are already really thin on left handed relievers and guys you would be comfortable pitching in the 8th-9th inning.
  23. twins_89
    I think a big part of the concern about Bundy/Archer comes from the poor track record of the front office when making this type of signing. When signing veteran starters who are highly questionable due to age or injury the teams failure rate has been frustratingly high.
  24. twins_89
    I'm not particularly excited about the move, though at this point there really aren't any free agent options that would be clearly better. I just hope that Archer (and Bundy) have a fairly short leash and the team doesn't give them 10-20 starts if its clear they are cooked. Ideally, I'd only want one Archer/Bundy reclamation type of signing, but since the front office whiffed on signing a reliable starter this is what we get.
  25. twins_89
    It is really weird to have spring training starting and have no idea what direction the team is going this season. I wouldn't be surprised to see the Twins try to compete by signing Story and trading for another good starter. I also wouldn't be surprised to see the team go into the season with a sub $100M payroll and virtually no chance at the playoffs.
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