It’s Time to Jump on the Yunior Severino Hype Train

Talented player and will have to be protected this year in the Rule 5, but he's got to cut down on the Ks. I'm thrilled to see his power output blossom, but this level of K-rate seems unsustainable. He's even higher than Wallner was last season at Wichita, and it certainly made Wallner's life difficult in his first attempts at MLB.

Probably deserves a promotion to AAA but both Miranda and Lewis are there at the moment.

How good (or bad) is he on defense? 

29 minutes ago, FlyingFinn said:

How good (or bad) is he on defense? 

Worries me that a young kid like this is playing DH over half the time.....

Hopefully the next step for Severino is to really get selective like Wallner did last year. 

Overall his numbers in A ball were a 28.6% K rate and a 12% BB rate.  In AA he's been at 32.9% K and 9.6% BB rate but still has only 280 PA there.  By the numbers, his track record on plate discipline and contact is actually much better than Wallner and many other similar players at the same stage.  So it seems at best premature to say that this is such a huge issue for him.  I think we can wait a few months to see how he fairs in that area.  I think it's fair to say he'll likely be a high K guy, but nothing in his track record suggests it'll be a debilitating issue.

Defensively, no he's not great.  I think he can probably play third but he might have to slide down to 1B/DH rather quickly.  That's probably the bigger hit on his prospect status to me, but he's hardly unique there either.  The main thing is just whether he continues to hit.

49 minutes ago, miracleb said:

Worries me that a young kid like this is playing DH over half the time.....

He's DH'ed in 5 of his 27 games this year.

If his ops stays over 1.000 for the rest of 2023… who cares how many times he wiffs. But yeah. Be selective young man. 

There's a lot to like in his stat line. But the Ks are tough to ignore. If I did my math right, he at 36.6% k rate right now. I doubt that will stay that way. He was at 26% for all of last season between A+ and AA. Get that back to that area and keep the .375 OBP and he should be on the Twins 40-man next spring or Rule 5 drafted. 

Not yet

He was one of my "pick to click" players last year and I got that right. Yeah me! LOL. But I've been on his hype train for a while now.

The K % is a concern, no doubt. And while these things are very fluid, his milb career slash line is:

.271/ .354/ .463/ .816

This tells me...by rough standards to be sure...that he might always K more than anyone would like, but he has the ability to still "hit" as well as take some BB. I can live with a 30% ish K for any batter if he can also just hit the damn ball once in a while, and take some walks to get OB, while providing XB and HR power. A 3 outcome player can still be a very good and productive one. But no question the BA and OB could nosedive if the K % keeps rising. So he still has to keep progressing and developing. 

I was worried he and Helman might be rule 5 picks this past offseason. Helman is older, a late bloomer, and maybe not a starter anywhere, but could be a great super utility player for someone, if it doesn't happen for the Twins. I didn't expect a proposed 2023 contending club to look at Severino, but I thought a Detroit, or KC, might look at him as a talented, "not quite ready" 2B/3B/DH to stash. Was very pleased when that didn't happen.

Only slightly surprised Severino didn't begin the year at St Paul. Think they just wanted to build on his half season at AA a little more. But I'd bet both he and Lee are at AAA by the start of the 2nd half. He's got to continue to improve, of course, or it's a moot point. Long term, I'm not sure his potential fit when you look at all the position player talent in front of him. Does he potentially convert to the OF? But I'm pretty sure he's going to force his way on to the 40 man this next offseason.

You only need to track his strikeouts and age to level to know he's not going to be anything with the Twins.  The combo rather dooms him to AAAA.

Is there a reason you don't state his age in this whole article? That is fairly integral when analyzing prospects. You use early 20's somewhat disingenuously here considering he will be mid 20's in 5 months (by some definitions he already is). I know we want to be optimistic about our prospects but that is an important piece to obscure that way.

25 minutes ago, weneedneshek said:

Is there a reason you don't state his age in this whole article? That is fairly integral when analyzing prospects. You use early 20's somewhat disingenuously here considering he will be mid 20's in 5 months (by some definitions he already is). I know we want to be optimistic about our prospects but that is an important piece to obscure that way.

I think the author thought the more important info was his age relative to his competition, which was clearly stated. A simple search would provide his birthdate. 

If nothing else he is shown he could be used as a trade chip.  Not saying they should trade him, but he is showing he may be MLB prospect again. 

He needs to reduce his K's to become a complete player. He is still young so he may improve as a hitter.