2019 Twins Midseason Top Prospect List: 1-5

Dman · July 2, 2019

Not too much to say as that is a consensus top 5. Wander is the wild card. I am starting to doubt he can stay healthy and if he can't stay healthy he is going to fall. He is not having a great year so far in A ball but he is still young and has really nice tools. Patience is a virtue and a lot of guys I had started to doubt had breakouts this year. Lets hope that happens with Wander real soon.

Lewis and Kiriloff are both having down seasons and Graterol is hurt making us question whether he is destined for the pen like many experts predicted. It has been a trying year for teh top of our prospect list but they have the talent and I expect all of them to bounce back given time.

benji21 · July 2, 2019

I’ve wondered the last year or so where the strikeouts are for graterol. I’ve had an eye on him since before he became a household name because of his tantalizing velocity, but how is he not even at 9 K/9??

Danchat · July 2, 2019

I have to be concerned with Lewis... he's had nearly a full season at A+ and his hitting numbers are bad. It seems he still needs to work on his swing, which isn't something your top prospect should be dealing with.

Kiriloff, on the other hand, isn't killing it right now but I'm still very confident in him. Let's see if he can catch fire in the second half and start razing AA.

jkcarew · July 2, 2019

Graterol slides down some for me. 5 years in and he’s on pace to having only one year with anything even close to 100 innings. He might be a regular member of a major league starting rotation some day...he’s just turning 21...but he’ll need to show real evidence that’s realistic at some point.

DocBauer · July 2, 2019

Count me as an optimist for this group, as well as the rest of the top 10. (Even beyond)

Graterol is being fast tracked to AA at only 20yr old? And we are worried about SO numbers when most kids his age are in A or low A? PLEASE. My only concern is health. Let's say he has a blip and doesn't hit MLB until he's an "ancient" 22-23yr old. Come on!

Wander, yea, he just needs to be healthy. All the talent in the world. Is he injury prone? Or is he just still growing in to his body? Time will tell, but I'd sure give him time at only 20.

Were I a trade partner with the Twins, I'd be jumping on Larnach. Big bat and fast riser.

The injury bug has, unfortunately, hit a lot of top prospects in the system, including Kirilloff. Stinks! But would you bet against him long term? Honestly, I think he's going to be special. And regarding the depth in the system...a hunch maybe...i think I'd keep him even beyond Lewis.

That being said, I would do all I can to keep Lewis. Think about this for a second, he's only 20 and in A+ ball. Most guys his age are in rookie ball. But a great 2018 has some of us down on him why? Because we thought/hoped he'd be in the majors at 21?

The depth and potential of this system is outstanding, I know a few guys are going to be gone in a couple of weeks. I just hope we are smart and make the right moves without giving up too much.

Old Twins Cap · July 2, 2019

That being said, I would do all I can to keep Lewis. Think about this for a second, he's only 20 and in A+ ball. Most guys his age are in rookie ball. But a great 2018 has some of us down on him why? Because we thought/hoped he'd be in the majors at 21?

Well, the really special players, Lindor, the two Atlanta sluggers, Devers, et al, they are in MLB at 19-20-21 years of age.

So, I think we have learned that Lewis is not going to be one of those, and will follow his own path up the ladder.

How good is his defense? How fast is he? Can he adjust his swing?

If he's got Buxton tools, and a Buxton track, Twins can live with that.

If he's less than that, and on a Buxton time-frame, it is time to think about what we can get for him that would better fit the current competition window.

diehardtwinsfan · July 2, 2019

I'm kind of souring on Graterol and Javier. Both are always injured. Javier isn't even producing in low A. I get that he's young, but he cannot seem to play for a full season. Graterol is another one in that capacity. He's got potential to be a 1, but if he's never healthy, will he get it? It seems like he might be another Alex Meyer. I kind of wonder if he's dangled for top of the rotation help. That makes sense to me, especially if it's controllable.

rdehring · July 2, 2019

Looking at this group, Javier isn't doing well in A-ball and they would be selling low...too many questions. Yet, the little he has played means its like he is starting his career in low A-ball, certainly deserving his #5 ranking.

Larnach, great season from a top pick. Graterol, fantastic prospect. Yet, the injury may affect his value in a trade.

Kirilloff and Lewis are the same story. Top 10 nationally, or at least they were, who will be sliding based on disappointing numbers for Lewis and so-so for Kirilloff who has battled an injury. Don't see the Twins getting true value for either of these...at least the value we think should be there based on their ceilings.

So when there is a trade, I see the players leaving being from further down the list, or maybe Larnach. Fortunately, there are some great stories there...Rooker, Gordon, Diaz and a smorgasbord of pitchers. Just look at the pitchers who had great outings last night!

Vanimal46 · July 2, 2019

I'm kind of souring on Graterol and Javier. Both are always injured. Javier isn't even producing in low A. I get that he's young, but he cannot seem to play for a full season. Graterol is another one in that capacity. He's got potential to be a 1, but if he's never healthy, will he get it? It seems like he might be another Alex Meyer. I kind of wonder if he's dangled for top of the rotation help. That makes sense to me, especially if it's controllable.

Also, it's worthwhile to mention that both players are rule 5 eligible this off-season. I wish Graterol was healthy this year so they could trade him for MLB talent.

benji21 · July 2, 2019

For Graterol, I don’t really care that he’s younger than the competition re strikeouts. I care about results for that. He’s got 100 mph heat and he can’t get A+ and AA hitters to whiff? That concerns me especially with the shadow of kohl stewert looming large.

PDX Twin · July 2, 2019

I have to be concerned with Lewis... he's had nearly a full season at A+ and his hitting numbers are bad. It seems he still needs to work on his swing, which isn't something your top prospect should be dealing with.

Maybe it means that he *is* working on his swing and is still not quite comfortable with the changes.

Tom Froemming · July 2, 2019

Had Brusdar Graterol continued to pitch well and be healthy, I would have considered putting him at No. 1.

There's really no reason to be concerned over an 8.69 K/9, 24.3 K% and a swinging strike rate of 13%. All of those numbers could certainly be better, but I think the overall quality of hitters you face once you get to Double A is a massive difference. He's the second-youngest pitcher to log at least 40 innings in Double A this season. He'll start to get more refined and consistent the more he throws and the longer he's in the high minors.

When his slider is good, that's his best pitch. Pretty crazy thing to be able to say about a guy with a 100 mph fastball. And he can get a ton of arm-side run and sink on that heater, which has helped him post a ground ball rate in excess of 50%.

If you want to try and do a statistical comp of Graterol to another top prospect, Sixto Sanchez would be a good place to start. They're nearly the same age and both are pitching not just at the same level, but in the same league.

Southern League numbers

Graterol: 1.89 ERA, 24.3 K%, 13.0 SwStr% (47.2 IP)

Sanchez: 2.77 ERA, 25.4 K%, 10.7 SwStr% (52.0 IP)

MLB Pipeline has Sanchez at No. 22 overall while Graterol is No. 50. They have Ian Anderson at No. 26. Keep in mind that he's 21 and had a four-game cameo in Double A last year, but here are his Southern League numbers:

Anderson: 2.94 ERA, 31.4 K%, 12.1 SwStr%

The Tigers have No. 2 overall prospect Casey Mize, who's 22, and No. 32 Matt Manning, 21, in Double-A's Eastern League:

Mize: 1.21 ERA, 25.1 K%, 14.0 SwStr% (52.0 IP)

Manning: 2.60 ERA, 29.4 K%, 13.2 SwStr% (86.2 IP)

I think Graterol stands up pretty well against all these guys.

Seth Stohs · July 2, 2019

Later tonight,, we will be posting our Top 40 Recap... So, make sure you start prepping your personal Top 20 or Top 30 lists for that discussion.

Squirrel · July 2, 2019

Thank you all for putting this whole series together. As one who spends time in Fort Myers, it's fun going to the games and telling my Mom a little about who is who, something I owe completely to this site and the hard work all of you guys do reporting on the minor leagues and the prospects.

Seth Stohs · July 2, 2019

Thank you all for putting this whole series together. As one who spends time in Fort Myers, it's fun going to the games and telling my Mom a little about who is who, something I owe completely to this site and the hard work all of you guys do reporting on the minor leagues and the prospects.

Too kind... thank you!

A side story... I was back home for a few days last week, and my dad started asking me about Poppen and Wade and Thorpe and Arraez and in doing so, he acknowledged that he was reading about them in this year''s prospect handbook.

He said he wanted to see where we had ranked Arraez, what I''d written about him, stuff like that. In 11 years, he's never mentioned that...

So, it was cool to know that if my dad was actually reading it, then I assume others are as well.

Always good to hear that people read and enjoy content here and some of our other projects.

gunnarthor · July 2, 2019

Kiriloff has a higher obp than I thought he had for all his struggles. That's a pretty good sign.

DocBauer · July 3, 2019

Had Brusdar Graterol continued to pitch well and be healthy, I would have considered putting him at No. 1.

There's really no reason to be concerned over an 8.69 K/9, 24.3 K% and a swinging strike rate of 13%. All of those numbers could certainly be better, but I think the overall quality of hitters you face once you get to Double A is a massive difference. He's the second-youngest pitcher to log at least 40 innings in Double A this season. He'll start to get more refined and consistent the more he throws and the longer he's in the high minors.

When his slider is good, that's his best pitch. Pretty crazy thing to be able to say about a guy with a 100 mph fastball. And he can get a ton of arm-side run and sink on that heater, which has helped him post a ground ball rate in excess of 50%.

If you want to try and do a statistical comp of Graterol to another top prospect, Sixto Sanchez would be a good place to start. They're nearly the same age and both are pitching not just at the same level, but in the same league.

Southern League numbers
Graterol: 1.89 ERA, 24.3 K%, 13.0 SwStr% (47.2 IP)
Sanchez: 2.77 ERA, 25.4 K%, 10.7 SwStr% (52.0 IP)

MLB Pipeline has Sanchez at No. 22 overall while Graterol is No. 50. They have Ian Anderson at No. 26. Keep in mind that he's 21 and had a four-game cameo in Double A last year, but here are his Southern League numbers:

Anderson: 2.94 ERA, 31.4 K%, 12.1 SwStr%

The Tigers have No. 2 overall prospect Casey Mize, who's 22, and No. 32 Matt Manning, 21, in Double-A's Eastern League:

Mize: 1.21 ERA, 25.1 K%, 14.0 SwStr% (52.0 IP)
Manning: 2.60 ERA, 29.4 K%, 13.2 SwStr% (86.2 IP)

I think Graterol stands up pretty well against all these guys.

Great post and very informative!

Fair or not I wonder if some are confusing Romero and Graterol. Not directly or absolutely, but seeing a young fireballer suddenly struggle. Maybe part of the "why can't we have nice things" arguement. HOPEFULLY, Graterol's injury turns out to be minor. But 20yo with stuff dominating AA when most guys his age are in A ball or lower? Just healthy and continuing to learn and grow is the important thing. My goodness, even 2 years away he would be young!

benji21 · July 3, 2019

I can’t quote on mobile, but Tom, thanks for the post. Graterol’s swinging strike rate does hold up against those other elite prospects and makes me more optimistic.

ashbury · July 3, 2019

I can’t quote on mobile, but

Touch the body of the post that you wish to quote, and at the bottom of the post (so maybe you'll have to scroll down) there will be some buttons among which one is "Quote". Touch the body of the post again, to make the buttons go away. Or, at least, that's how it is on my Android phone.

Rosterman · July 3, 2019

I was hoping for some good numbers from Javier. The Twins have an abundance of stars in the middle infield. And the recent Top Pick should pass Javier fast. Nick Gordon is also a man without a job in the future, or so it kight seem.

We are loooking at two future outfielders, so the Twins don't have a need to throw BIG money at Rosario and Buxton, if push comes to shove. But if they can sign either to modest contracts, you have tradebait. Remember, Rooker is still in the outfield mix, too.

You love hard throwing arms. Not jsut for the rotation, but possibly for the bullpen. But they need to develop. The future looks bright for the Twins filling the roster with prospects. Are there $100 million dollar players, that is the question.

jkcarew · July 4, 2019

Southern League numbers
Graterol: 1.89 ERA, 24.3 K%, 13.0 SwStr% (47.2 IP)
Sanchez: 2.77 ERA, 25.4 K%, 10.7 SwStr% (52.0 IP)

MLB Pipeline has Sanchez at No. 22 overall while Graterol is No. 50. They have Ian Anderson at No. 26. Keep in mind that he's 21 and had a four-game cameo in Double A last year, but here are his Southern League numbers:

Anderson: 2.94 ERA, 31.4 K%, 12.1 SwStr%

The Tigers have No. 2 overall prospect Casey Mize, who's 22, and No. 32 Matt Manning, 21, in Double-A's Eastern League:

Mize: 1.21 ERA, 25.1 K%, 14.0 SwStr% (52.0 IP)
Manning: 2.60 ERA, 29.4 K%, 13.2 SwStr% (86.2 IP)

I think Graterol stands up pretty well against all these guys.

Agree he seems to be ok with the the K/SwStr numbers for now.

It's the innings pitched number where he doesn't stack up so well (even relative to minor league/prospect starter standards)....and that's a mighty important number for starting prospects. At best, Graterol appears to be quite a ways away from showing ability or readiness for a major-league starter workload. Is it just me, or does anyone else see the parallels with Fernando Romero? Short, right-handed power pitchers who struggled in the minors to log innings and finish seasons. Graterol is a little further along at the same age as was Romero, but still, it sure seems he's trending towards reliever.

Edited July 4, 2019 by jkcarew

gunnarthor · July 4, 2019

Agree he seems to be ok with the the K/SwStr numbers for now.

It's the innings pitched number where he doesn't stack up so well (even relative to minor league/prospect starter standards)....and that's a mighty important number for starting prospects. At best, Graterol appears to be quite a ways away from showing ability or readiness for a major-league starter workload. Is it just me, or does anyone else see the parallels with Fernando Romero? Short, right-handed power pitchers who struggled in the minors to log innings and finish seasons. Graterol is a little further along at the same age as was Romero, but still, it sure seems he's trending towards reliever.

I think this is pretty spot on.

benji21 · July 7, 2019

Touch the body of the post that you wish to quote, and at the bottom of the post (so maybe you'll have to scroll down) there will be some buttons among which one is "Quote". Touch the body of the post again, to make the buttons go away. Or, at least, that's how it is on my Android phone.

It works!

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