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Given that the difference in production between Sano and Arraez is so drastic, let’s start with the bad news. Rocco Baldelli is obviously counting on the first basemen to be an anchor in the power production department of his lineup. Thus far Sano owns a .079/.271/.158 slash line and has been worth -0.3 fWAR. Let’s go under the hood though and see what’s really going on.
First and foremost, it’s worth remembering this is all an analysis of 48 plate appearances over a total of just 12 games. Yes, his average is abysmal, but it’s not a traditional problem for Miguel. He has a career best 20.8% walk rate (nearly double his average) and has shaved nearly 6% off his strikeout rate. There haven’t been a ton of balls put in play, but he has just a .105 BABIP.
What is often assumed to be the problem with a strikeout prone hitter is that they are just all over the place when in the box. That couldn’t be further from the truth for Sano. His chase rate is at 25.5% (below his career average), and he’s shaved 3% off his whiff rate from 2020. The contact rate is up, and he’s actually swinging more often at pitches in the zone.
So, where’s the issue? Miguel Sano is known for being a destroyed of baseballs, and right now timing is not allowing him to do that. He’s seeing a career high 68.8% first pitch strikes. Opposing pitchers are going right at him and getting ahead in the count early. Of the 20 batted ball events Sano has had, he’s barreled just a single one of them. For a guy with a 44.6% hard hit rate over his career to be at 25% with a 60% soft contact rate clearly suggests things are out of whack.
When attempting to deduce where and how Sano can adjust Minnesota may look no further than his swing path. Sano tends to get long at times, and instead of contact being centered, he’s under the ball. This is reflected in a 50% infield fly ball percentage. The likelihood that those types of circumstances are going to result in hits remains minute.
At the end of the season Sano will likely have adjusted and worked through hot streaks combatting this slow start. He’s a streaky hitter at times and the cold spell may have come to start the year. No matter how it shakes out, I think you’d be hard pressed to suggest that one of the game’s most powerful hitters over the past few years has simply lost his ability to make hard contact. He’s been more disciplined, so when bat meets ball things should get fun.
On the flip side the Twins are seeing a slight change in approach from their newly designated utility man. Luis Arraez has always been heralded as an incredibly tough out because he doesn’t strike out, makes a pitcher work, and will take walks. Those things are still all true, but he’s looking to add a bit more power into his game.
Here too we’re dealing with a small sample size in just 46 total plate appearances, but it’s clear that the former second basemen has a little something up his sleeve. Arraez posted a 7.9% and 9.1% strikeout rate in his first two seasons with the Twins, but to start 2021 has increased that to 13%. It’s not a problematic number by any means, especially not when coupled with a career high 15.2% walk rate, but it’s part of a tradeoff.
Welcome to the power surge. Arraez has 33 batted ball events this year and has a 39.4% hard hit rate, nearly a 10% jump year over year, and what was already a career high in 2020. He’s still utilizing roughly the same batted ball profile with what breaks down to a 30% line drive rate, but his xwOBA is now nearly 50 points higher at .405 solely because he’s putting force behind each swing.
Don’t expect Luis to become some big bopper this season by any means, but there’s 15 homer potential in this style. He’s doing it while staying in himself too. The chase rate is actually down to a career best 22% while his whiff rate is only up 2% at 5.6% on the year. Sure, he’s making slightly less contact, but virtually all of it is still coming within the zone and he’s doing it with more intent.
We’re still far too early into the season regarding any definitive determinations. If there’s a takeaway regarding output from hitters to this point however, it’s that I love what I’m seeing from Arraez and that Miguel Sano should be in for a welcomed amount of production once the timing clicks.
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