What the Brewers Can Teach the Twins About Trading Joe Ryan

The Twins find themselves in an interesting position.  They are "competitive" in the worst division in MLB.  What does that really mean?  Does it mean the Twins have a realistic opportunity to make some noise in the playoffs should they win the division or grab a Wild Card spot?  Realistically, probably not.  

There is no chance.  Absolutely ZERO that Ryan Jeffers would sign any kind of extension.  Caratini is working out better than many people expected.  Jackson has also been better than expected.  The Twins have Tait in the minors and a chance at a VERY GOOD catching prospect in the draft this Saturday.  We are trading Ryan Jeffers.  

There are all sorts of guys that could and maybe SHOULD be traded.  Larnach, Wallner (if anyone will have him) Taylor Rogers, maybe a prospect like Emmanuel Rodriguez, but beyond Ryan Jeffers, everything comes down to Joe Ryan.  The Brewers example makes a good case for trading him.  But as always, it comes down to what the return is. 

To me, the big question is not "should we trade Joe Ryan??"  It's WHEN.  Joe Ryan is not signing an extension.  He's made it clear he would like to experience Free Agency.  The case CAN be made that we have the potential to get MORE in return for him if we deal him at the deadline.  More time with the acquiring team means more trade capital.  Where you begin to split hairs is how much does your return diminish if you wait until the off-season.  And how much does an all but certain Lockout/Strike affect any trades this off-season??

I think tony&rodney has the right idea.  The goal of a trade involving Ryan is to get a star level prospect in return.  Someone like the Brewers own Jesus Made.  To me, that is who I would target.  Made is a SS who projects to probably be a 3B.  With Marek Houston in the Twins pipeline and the chance that a Grady Emerson or Roch Cholowsky could be added as well, it's actually a bonus that Made fits best at 3B.

I would like to see how THIS season goes for the Twins even if it leads to a quick playoff exit.  But could an off season deal involving Joe Ryan and Brooks Lee for Jesus Made be a possibility?  Made is the #1 prospect in MLB.  Would adding Emmanuel Rodriguez or Dasan Hill be enough for the #1 prospect in MLB?? 

A future Twins infield of Made at 3B, Houston at SS and Culpepper at 2B (assuming we end up with Lackey as a Catching prospect) would be very fun.  Imagine what that IF could look like with Cholowsky or Emerson in a future mix?  

Made could see a Brewers call-up by the end of this season.  He's sure to be in the Majors for 2027.  Including Brooks Lee opens the door wide for Made to be the Twins starting 3B in 2027.  I think this is what tony&rodney is talking about.  Go BIG or GO HOME.  Is this what Pohlad sees as Go BIG or GO HOME??  

1 hour ago, chpettit19 said:

Joe Ryan signed a new deal this last offseason that included an option for next year. Not sure what reports you're reading, but they had to talk about his future with the team to do that. Joe Ryan has been very open for nearly his entire MLB career that he wants to hit the market and thinks the arbitration system is stupid.

The Twins are clearly not a super well-run team, but not having extensions for players doesn't automatically mean they haven't discussed it. As it turns out, players have the ability to say "no."

The contract the Twins and Ryan signed was to avoid the last 2 years of arbitration at a compromise figure that roughly approximates the middle ground for his last 2 arbitration years.  You jump to a startling conclusion that this means they discussed a post-arbitration, multi-year extension with zero proof, just speculation.  Please point us to any reporting that this Twins FO has tried to extend Ryan beyond his arb years.  Happy to be wrong, but I have never seen even a hint that this has been negotiated.

(There are dozens of examples where there are reports that the teams and players have been negotiating a multi-year extension. Sometimes they come to terms, sometimes they do not.  Nothing like that reported as happening for Ryan.)

But your conclusion is dead accurate:  Trade Ryan if you are satisfied with the return, Trade Jeffers unless it is a low-ball offer.

Giving out multi year contracts to 30 year old starting pitchers is risky business. Great article...it made up my mind. Some team would have to really offer MLB talent or MLB ready talent at the deadline for the Twins to trade Joe. Twins should trade Joe but in the off season.

1 hour ago, hitterscount said:

My counter to your point is Milwaukee will draw over three million this season. Most games Ive watched this season there aren’t 10,000 people in the park. Winning matters, consistency matters we aren’t there.

And the reason why "we aren't there" yet is because the last 10 years when the Twins were buyers Falvey did a poor job bringing in difference makers, and when the Twins were sellers, like last year, the return is so far away that we just extended the push strategy another year or two down the road. No one will remember if the Brewers drew 3 million fans and the Twins drew 1 million. (Except for the Pohlads and they don't seem to care). They will remember if/when the Brewers win a Championship. See the difference?

19 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

It's a more "startling conclusion" to assume they discussed an extension beyond his arbitration years when they were already talking about future seasons than assuming they haven't at all discussed a deal beyond his arbitration years? Your argument is that it's more realistic that they were talking about 2026 and 2027 but didn't even broach the idea of 2028 and beyond than it is that they mentioned 2028 and beyond when discussing 2026 and 2027?

Yeah, sorry, but that is a "startling conclusion" to reach. There are thousands of extensions that are reached or not reached without a single peep about them in the news. The most obvious conclusion to draw here is that they at least mentioned the idea of an extension. What is widely available in reporting is that Joe Ryan has been very staunchly against an extension and the arbitration process in general. That combined with the fact that they discussed at least 1 future year would make it a pretty simple jump to them having discussed an extension beyond his arb years and he told them he wasn't interested so let's just get the arb years done.

So you "assume".  Again, if you actually have any reporting that the Twins and Ryan discussed an extension beyond arbitration, please let us know. Otherwise, you are assuming and speculating.

We both agree Ryan has reportedly sought FA.  That contradicts your assumptions as well.

Ryan will not pitch for the Twins beyond 2027 in any scenario. so trade him now when his value is highest. We agree on that point.

To be honest my takeaway from reading through these trades is that the Twins should keep Ryan. The Brewers have a much better trading and development track record than we do, and even with that being the case a lot of these returns were just okay. In exchange for four All Stars they got a solid regular, a reliever, a couple interesting but unproven starters with big question marks, and a few okay prospects. And that's the return received by a team that's great at this.

I get that this is a depth sport and they've increased the quality of their depth which has some value, but there are Willi Castro and Kody Clemens types available on the waiver wire and cheap part of the free agent market every single year. I mean no offense to either of those guys because they were both really good with us, but if you're giving up stars you need to get more than these guys in return. Smart teams don't give up stars to get quality depth, they find or develop it cheaply.

2 hours ago, hitterscount said:

Our frugal spending will not change, so the question becomes when to trade Ryan. As long as the team is in contention for a postseason bid I would hold on to him and make the move this winter. But the bottom line is I wouldn’t pony up the cash that would be needed to extend him…. he’s earned it, but you can’t have that type of money he’s going to get tied to one player.

Did the Carlos Correa deal determine your opinion of tying too much money up into 1 player? It seriously depends on the player. Correa wasn't it. He was a good defender but pretty much an average hitter. His contract with the Twins was a huge OVER-pay. Joe Ryan is much better than average and worthy of big dollars much more than Correa was. 

2 hours ago, Nashvilletwin said:

Here is what everyone is forgetting: a salary cap and floor is coming.  Make no mistake about it.  It will be here no later than 2028.  The floor will be at least $175MM (maybe there is a ramp up period over a year or two).

The Twins are going to need to spend money.  A lot of it.

This is why they will hold off trading Ryan now (and Buxton for that matter).  They will hold onto Ryan this year, play out their unexpected competitive season, and then decide if  Ryan is the right guy to extend or trade over the off-season.

The Twins are going to be chock full of young, cheap, up and coming position players and pitchers in ‘27 and ‘28.  They will need to augment that roster with a handful of higher priced players - Ryan just still might be one of them.  If they trade him now, the Twins will lose that option on Ryan (as he will surely be extended by the acquirer).  He stays.  

Teams that are “beneath the floor” will have a lot of opportunity to take on salaries from teams above the cap. They should be able to extract top prospects from those teams in exchange. So the Twins could benefit twice from trading Ryan. 

OK, so you admit you are assuming and that there is ZERO reporting that the Twins and Ryan have EVER discussed an extension beyond arbitration.

My point is that when teams and players ARE negotiating such an extension, it does get reported, even when they fail to reach agreement.  You position is that the Twins and Ryan MAY have discussed an extension, which both sides kept completely silent about.

I think my position is more likely accurate, but I am sure you disagree.  So there we are.

2 hours ago, tony&rodney said:

Many people can agree with the "multiple young star" return idea. However .... Who are those young stars? In the last year I have proposed trades for Franklin Arias (last July) and Leodalis De Vries or Max Clark (last winter). Those were never likely to occur. I'm not seeing any proposals that pique my interest thus far.

At this time, the Twins may want to see where the team is on August 2 before making a decision. There may be ongoing discussions about a contract extension as well. I'm keeping an open mind. 

There has been quite a bit of discussion about the strength of the farm system, especially last year. It might be time to push some players forward. Kaelen Culpepper and Walker Jenkins could fill positions. The starting pitching has navigated through some challenges but is still managing to give the club solid starts. The main issue remains the bullpen. The biggest question is whether Ryan Jeffers and a few prospects can be traded for good relief pitchers. The speculation keeps building but the deadline could be quiet too.

As always, great knowledge from you! I dont know what Ryan, Jeffers and Larnach’s market is now. If anyone can get an overpayment, you gonna pull that trigger. If the market sucks, hold on until the offseason… 

15 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

The Brewers are drawing 32k per game x 81 games 2.6MM. They're not getting to 3MM unless they have a deep playoff run, which they very well may. They're on pace for 103 wins or so.

The Twins are drawing 21k per game x 81 games 1.7MM and 25k over their past 10 home games (propped up heavily by the Dodgers series). They're on pace for 79 wins.

The Rockies are drawing 28k per game x 81 games 2.3MM. They're on pace to win 65 games. They're probably the worst team in baseball over the past decade. They always draw well. Denver is a mid-market base. Drawing fans is about the game day experience.

The Twins have a downer for an ownership group and the city experience has been pure crap since G.Floyd. Our stadium is awesome but the city experience as a whole is nothing better than a sewer system.  Change that vibe and more fans would go to more games. 

Adding to Nashville's point- who knows how other teams are valuing 2027 control if there is a labor standoff and maybe not a season.  Just keep him and if nothing changes to salary cap/floor/etc just trade him next year once a season starts

6 hours ago, mikelink45 said:

 I do not have the trust in our system that we will show the Brewers' shrewdness. 

I concur , my thoughts exactly when I read the headline  ...

Have they figured out any kind of plan , we really haven't had any inclination to a plan other than trading assets for prospects for restructuring as they put it , it's really a rebuild and it is showing some good signs with better baseball this year ...

I hope the Twins keep Ryan mostly because he is fun to watch pitch. Also he he has stayed healthy which may be luck but could an efficient throwing motion and the fact he doesn't have to throw 100 % on every pitch to be effective. I expect he could be one of those pitchers who can continue to effective into his mid thirties.

The Twins can certainly sign him either now or when he becomes a free agent if they are willing to pay him market rates. Since a salary floor seems pretty likely, I would like to see the money spent on a real star like Ryan. Because the money will be be spent somewhere, probably for aging non stars like they have been doing the last few years. Only at inflated rates because everybody will have to meet the salary floor.

I don't know how close to truly competitive the Twins really are. I expect that depends on how good the near ready prospects turn out to be. Having an ace, maybe two if Lopez can come back to his former effectiveness, would go a long way to anchoring a competitive team.