What History Can Tell Us About Michael Pineda's Innings Total in 2019

Well written piece!

My first impression is that Lance Lynn would be the best comp for Pineda. Big guy, throws hard, a year off after TJ. Pineda is younger than Lynn, so he might heal a bit quicker and stay healthy if the Twins are willing to gradually increase his pitch counts. 

I have a good feeling about Pineda. The Twins may have actually gotten themselves a TJ steal. 

Thanks. I appreciate the work.

Pineda is likely a one year Twin. I would error on the side of overuse.

Great article.

I could look up the answer, but you probably already have the data. What month did each of these guys have their TJ surgery?

One never hopes for an injury, but I’ve also wondered if the knee injury could be a blessing in disguise. He was able to rehab back to a point of near readiness and then forced to take a break, which allowed for what amounts to an extended offseason before resuming a normal preparation for this season.

It will also be interesting going forward. Given the general skittishness of the market and the worry about the ability of a TJ survivor breaking down again, if he has a good year, I could see him having a tough time getting the long deal he probably will be seeking. Of course it only takes one team willing to take a chance.

But at any rate, if he does indeed come back strong, I’d be inclined to reach out to him mid year about his willingness to extend a year.

I am constantly frustrated with low expectations - relief pitcher Mike Marshall in 1979  was 10 – 15, 90 games, 142 innings, 2.65 era.

"While it may be morally wrong, how much would the Twins care about ruining the arm of a guy they have no intention of keeping long term?"

You should walk that back. It was morally wrong to say something like that.

I’m not sure an “innings limit” is accurate terminology. I’d say total pitch limit. 150-160 innings averaging 12-15 pitches per is considerably different than 18-20 pitches per.

As you suggested, I’m sure they know what they want that pitch limit to be.

To imply that sometimes teams don't act in the best interest in their players' health? I'm not advocating for doing it, but it isn't a rare occurrence at all. 

Yes it is. In fact, you have no proof of this. None. Go ahead, double down. But it was a crappy thing to say. Irresponsible. 

Miguel Sano 2017, Francisco Liriano 2006. Had those teams not been in playoff races, I'm certain both players would have been shutdown for the year. And those were two guys they had for the long run.

 

Don't count on teams to always act on what's best for the player.

That's BS. And there is a big difference between players playing hurt in a pennant race and abusing a player, knowing it will jeopardize their careers. The Twins have always been on the careful side in my opinion. And if you think the Twins abuse players then why in the world would you want to be a Twins writer? 

And just how did the Twins cause Miggie to hurt his leg by being hit by a pitch?  And just how did the Twins subject Frankie to injury? Injuries happen and Frankie had a violent throwing motion to begin with. 

This was an unfair comment. And untrue. 

Lynn had his in November 2015-made his debut back in the start of 2017

Arroyo had his in July 2014-made his debut back in the start of 2017

Wheeler has his in March 2015-made his debut back in the start of 2017

Lackey had his in November 2011-made his debut back in the start of 2013

Erlin had his in May 2016-made his debut back in the start of 2018

Harvey had his in October 2013-made his debut back in the start of 2015

So Pineda will have more time since the surgery than Lynn, Harvey, and Lackey, the three guys who threw 200+. That seems like a good sign. 

On the other hand, he will have less time than the three who threw less than 120. That seems like a bad sign. 

I prefer the good sign. 

ride em hard and put em away wet!!! No wait that's gross

Should the Twins purposefully overuse Pineda next year? Of course not.

I do think that they should not treat him the same as a younger longer term asset though. They should not be shutting him down on the short end of a range of innings as the Nationals did with Strasburg as he passed 150 innings.

It is in the Twins interest and Pineda’s that they push the higher end of that range erroring on the overuse side of that range. Pineda is in his prime. He missed his first shot at a contract with injury. Next off season will likely be his last chance at a significant contract. He needs to show that he is fully healthy and can be very effective at handling a full load. The Twins need those innings. They can’t afford to invest into a one year asset shortened starts or extra days for rest. If the Twins are in contention later in the season they need to keep giving him the ball. If they aren’t in contention, they need to show he can handle the workload so they can trade him at the deadline.

Perhaps the the term overuse in my earlier phrase “error on the side of overuse” carried to much weight. The Twins need to push the upper end of the innings expectation. It is in their interest and Pineda’s.

It seems to me that the abuse of pitchers is far more common in the college ranks. I often read about some kid throwing 120-140 pitches in a game. My opinion is that it is very rare in the pros.

I just hope Big Mike has a big year. 

Should the Twins purposefully overuse Pineda next year? Of course not.

I do think that they should not treat him the same as a younger longer term asset though. They should not be shutting him down on the short end of a range of innings as the Nationals did with Strasburg as he passed 150 innings.

It is in the Twins interest and Pineda’s that they push the higher end of that range erroring on the overuse side of that range. Pineda is in his prime. He missed his first shot at a contract with injury. Next off season will likely be his last chance at a significant contract. He needs to show that he is fully healthy and can be very effective at handling a full load. The Twins need those innings. They can’t afford to invest into a one year asset shortened starts or extra days for rest. If the Twins are in contention later in the season they need to keep giving him the ball. If they aren’t in contention, they need to show he can handle the workload so they can trade him at the deadline.

Perhaps the the term overuse in my earlier phrase “error on the side of overuse” carried to much weight. The Twins need to push the upper end of the innings expectation. It is in their interest and Pineda’s.

I'm with you.    Twins are already on the hook to pay him more than I would make in a hundred years of actually working.    That's not even counting the 17 odd million he's made before this.   And he's not even thrown a pitch for us yet.   Lets not treat this topic the same as concussion risk.   If he has another major arm injury he will still be able to do everything in life aside from throwing a major league baseball game.   It distresses me a million times more that the two shoulders I've injured playing for nothing that I can't afford to fix will hamper my golf swing.   Protecting his arm is a very nebulous arbitrary thing anyway.    After watching 50 years of baseball I think the odds of him hurting his arm in spring training are the same as him hurting his arm in innings 180-200 and the same as him hurting his arm next spring training whether he throws 120 innings or 200 innings this year.     I don't think its callous that the Twins wouldn't give much weight to what he does in the future as a non Twin.    Its baseball.   There are risks of arm injury every appearance.     Pitch him as long as he is healthy and effective.    If he is not healthy he won't be effective.     

I just hope Big Mike has a big year. 

I just hope the Twins have a big year.    I hope Pineda has a big year to help make that happen..

Well it will be interesting. His home ERA despite giving up way many HRs was better than away.

There is likely to be some free agents after rosters are cut to 25.

Don't these two statements contradict each other somewhat? Lance Lynn turned out to be a pretty marginal pitcher/signing last year.

My comp to Lynn referred to the general category of pitcher, plus a similar recovery period. Pineda should be a better pitcher than Lynn, if he's healthy.