Twins Looking to Avoid the Liam Hendriks Mistake With Louis Varland

It's becoming obvious that Varland is headed to the pen. He looks to be the 2-3 inning guy that the Twins need, although he might be best in max effort, one inning outings. Either way, this is the right move with the number of starters he's up against. 

I was in favor & advocated last season, that Varland not waste his bullets in AAA to be a SP but be brought up & kept up as a RP. When he was brought up as a SP, he was unimpressive. Many short-sighted fans completely gave up on Varland, I have always seen Varland's value as a RP. IMO Varland could become a SP but his avenue is 1st via the BP.

A lot of people are big on his velo, which we've seen touch 100mph. While that is nice, his fastball is very straight which means its easier to hit. And with that velo when it does get hit, it gets hit hard. If he can find a way to get some movement on his pitches and develop a good offspeed pitch, maybe he can be a solid reliever. I am glad they finally are putting him in the pen fulltime. He is cooked as a starter and has been for awhile. I wish him the best of luck, you can never have to many weapons out there in the pen...

2 hours ago, mikelink45 said:

My only question is - why did it take so long?

Because he had just enough success early on as a starter to make it possible to foresee a scenario where that worked out for him. And if he could have made it as a starter, that has more value for the team, especially when this journey started. It's a lot easier to push Varland to the 'pen when you have Festa, Matthews, Morris, Raya, and Lewis at AAA, coming off a season when SWR was effective in MLB for most of the seasons, and Paddack looks healthy. Starting pitching depth was in a different place entering 2023 or even 2024.

Yeah, OK...I know...I know...its just Spring Training...but....WHO DO YOU LIKE?

CLE:  10-17  added Santana, Resigned Bieber, lost Boyd, Cobb, Gimenez, Josh Naylor, Eli Morgan

CWS:  10-16  added Perez, Slater, Tachman, WIlson, Rojas, Taylor, Gilbert, Thaiss, lost Leone 

MIN:  10-15 added Bader, France, Coulombe, lost Farmer, Kepler, Santana, Thielbar, Moran

DET:  12-12  added Flaherty, Torrez, Urquidy

KC:   18-11  added ZJonathan India, Estevez, lost Robbie Grossman, Will Smith, Singer, Frazier, Pham DeJong, Gurriel

The results as a reliever in 2024 weren’t great…but under the covers there was a significant improvement from his starter numbers.
 

I do think there’s a shot for him to be an above-average reliever in short stints. IMO, the fastball is good enough if he commands it well. And a solidly average secondary pitch might be enough…as a short reliever. I think he’s going to get the opportunity to make that happen. We’ll see.

6 hours ago, Doctor Gast said:

I was in favor & advocated last season, that Varland not waste his bullets in AAA to be a SP but be brought up & kept up as a RP. When he was brought up as a SP, he was unimpressive. Many short-sighted fans completely gave up on Varland, I have always seen Varland's value as a RP. IMO Varland could become a SP but his avenue is 1st via the BP.

Varland in 2023 was impressive in the bullpen at season's end and playoffs , why management continued to pitch him as a starter in 2024 ( depth as a starter isnt a good enough reason when others , like Festa and others were better options as a starter  )  , one never knows why  ...

Im just hoping management didn't wait to long in making him a bullpen arm and he can continue as a dominant arm ...

6 hours ago, Doctor Gast said:

I was in favor & advocated last season, that Varland not waste his bullets in AAA to be a SP but be brought up & kept up as a RP. When he was brought up as a SP, he was unimpressive. Many short-sighted fans completely gave up on Varland, I have always seen Varland's value as a RP. IMO Varland could become a SP but his avenue is 1st via the BP.

Varland in 2023 was impressive in the bullpen at season's end and playoffs , why management continued to pitch him as a starter in 2024 ( depth as a starter isnt a good enough reason when others , like Festa and others were better options as a starter  )  , one never knows why  ...

Im just hoping management didn't wait to long in making him a bullpen arm and he can continue as a dominant arm ...

7 hours ago, bean5302 said:

Hendriks is a very different pitcher than Varland, and Hendiks' transition to reliever resulted in a much more dramatic change. 

Hendriks picked up 4mph going from averaging 91.5mph to 95.5mph in his first year as a reliever. His velocity peaked at over 97.5mph meaning a total of 6mph improvement. Varland only goes up 1-2mph since he was already throwing hard.

In terms of stuff, Hendriks has developed 2 plus pitches, he's more like Griffin Jax. Varland probably has no plus pitches. The curve might work out for him as a good plus pitch, but he rarely threw it last year. Varland's other offerings are pretty average.

I expect Varland to be a mediocre reliever with stuff that doesn't move well so it gets barreled up, and velo which isn't overpowering relative to the average reliever. Varland's results as a reliever thus far have not been inspiring.

I agree with most of this except the last paragraph. I expect or maybe hope for more of a Jax type when it's all said and done. But not a Hendrik outcome.

I hope for this transition to go well. I'm 50/50 on what I think the results will be. The woulda, coulda shoulda with past players kind of bugs me. We've benefited from it plenty of times as well from other teams' players. 

The only thing holding Varland back is his attitude. He insists he should be a starter while his stats prove otherwise. If he would ever embrace a relievers role he could be exceptional.

On 3/22/2025 at 7:30 AM, Cody Christie said:

After leaving the Twins, Hendriks reinvented himself as a reliever, emerging as one of the best in the game with a 2.94 ERA, 1.05 WHIP, and a 32.7 K% rate between 2015 and 2022. He earned three All-Star selections and snagged two Mariano Rivera AL Reliever of the Year awards, proving that sometimes a change in role is all it takes to unlock a player’s full potential.

I really disagree with @Cody Christie’s assertion that the failure to try Hendriks as a reliever was the mistake. The Twins released him after the 2013 season. After that he went from the Cubs to the Orioles to the Blue Jays to the Royals back to the Blue Jays and then to the A’s. He pitched in relief 201 times in that span and earned one save.

His ERA’s in his first three seasons with the A’s were a mediocre 3.76, 4.22 and 4.13 as a middle inning reliever throwing a fastball in the 94s. Something happened at age 30 in 2019 and his velocity the next few seasons was 97 and the ERAs were under 2.

The Twins didn’t make a mistake of not giving a chance to a reliever throwing in the 94s. If there was a mistake it was a failure to help him find that 97 mph fastball.  All of the other coaching staffs he encountered on his path from 2013 to 2018 had the same failure. The Twins can’t make that same mistake with Varland. They have already helped him get to a velocity in the upper 90s.

7 hours ago, mikelink45 said:

My only question is - why did it take so long?

For the same reasons Austin Martin played SS in the minors for 115 games. The same reason half the team plays 2B when they need a 1B. A mystery as old as this regime!

I'll limit my comments to Varland only.  My impression is that when you have great velocity, you can reduce to "very good" velocity and likely add not insignificant movement.  I know this is an oversimplification, but also a good generalization.  

I believe Varland can be a lights-out reliever. He gains speed with short (1 inning) bursts,  and can leverage/trade some of that for better action.  IF this is successful, his middling secondary offerings can play.  And as he develops,  those same secondary offerings could become plus.  I see the path.  

1 hour ago, FargoFanMan said:

For the same reasons Austin Martin played SS in the minors for 115 games. The same reason half the team plays 2B when they need a 1B. A mystery as old as this regime!

Are you suggesting the Twins are rudderless?

Not at all. They just have an affinity for keeping guys at certain positions when they have no business being there or not putting obvious choices in certain positions of weakness. For instance Wallner other than his arm seems to be average at best in RF. They are weak at 1B. When Erod and Jenkins come up who are superior OF’s where will Wallner play? No reps at 1B at all when he’s a natural fit. Same with Varland. He should have been in the BP last year. Wasted a whole year at AAA just to come to the obvious conclusion a year later.

I expect Varland to throw 98mph gas, a wipeout curve ball and a drop dead change up. He should be good for up to 6 outs per appearance and have. Sub 3.0 era and 1.2 whip.  Probs make the all star team in ‘26. 

10 hours ago, FargoFanMan said:

Not at all. They just have an affinity for keeping guys at certain positions when they have no business being there or not putting obvious choices in certain positions of weakness. For instance Wallner other than his arm seems to be average at best in RF. They are weak at 1B. When Erod and Jenkins come up who are superior OF’s where will Wallner play? No reps at 1B at all when he’s a natural fit. Same with Varland. He should have been in the BP last year. Wasted a whole year at AAA just to come to the obvious conclusion a year later.

He pitched 49 innings for the twins last year. He wasn’t very effective and it turned into a lot of garbage time as a SP.  I do agree they should have moved him to the bullpen sooner but HE insisted at trying to be a SP. If that had been more successful, we would’ve not seen SWR as much and certainly less of Festa and Matthews. 
Now that he has accepted his bullpen roll, he understands that max effort is how he gets people out. His stuff will always play and the bullpen will be better with him in it. If he can got 2 innings per outing, he could become a legendary stopper. 
 

I am not shy about criticizing the Twins on player evaluation but I think it’s really a stretch to say they blew it with Hendricks.  He got passed around to several teams due to ineffectiveness after the Twins let him go.  Finally he starts throwing substantially harder and becomes a good reliever.  It’s interesting because he was kind of a slightly built guy with the Twins - when he had success he was built like a linebacker so he must have really hit those, ahem, weights.

As far as Varland goes I hope he succeeds but the jury is still out on him even in relief.  He has the velocity but his fastball is pretty straight.  He has no effective secondary pitches with the possible exception of a baby cutter.  If he can really spot those two pitches he could be a good reliever but the margin for error is pretty slim.

Although Varland has expressed the desire to start, it’s hard to argue with the idea of him pitching out of the bullpen, where he has had success and where his stuff plays up. 

13 hours ago, FargoFanMan said:

For the same reasons Austin Martin played SS in the minors for 115 games. The same reason half the team plays 2B when they need a 1B. A mystery as old as this regime!

Martin was drafted as a shortstop. So if your point is that Martin shouldn’t have played there, you are wrong. Obviously, they needed to find out if he could play shortstop, and if it took 115 games to see if this high draft choice could actually play his college position, so be it. As for filling the black hole at first base, they have tried both Julien and Miranda there. But I get your point. First base should be the easiest infield position to fill, requiring less fielding skills, speed and athleticism than the other infield positions. And it does make sense to experiment with Wallner at first, given Jenkins and EROD seem to be close to making the team, especially EROD. 

4 minutes ago, Otaknam said:

Martin was drafted as a shortstop. So if your point is that Martin shouldn’t have played there, you are wrong. Obviously, they needed to find out if he could play shortstop, and if it took 115 games to see if this high draft choice could actually play his college position, so be it. As for filling the black hole at first base, they have tried both Julien and Miranda there. But I get your point. First base should be the easiest infield position to fill, requiring less fielding skills, speed and athleticism than the other infield positions. And it does make sense to experiment with Wallner at first, given Jenkins and EROD seem to be close to making the team, especially EROD. 

Wallner is just getting to the point of becoming a regular OF. Sending him to 1B is probably premature. The FO was counting on AK to be 1B before his retirement that just happened so there is gonna be some transition time involved. Hopefully France is back to his allstar status vs. injury plagued barf of 2 seasons. 

48 minutes ago, Otaknam said:

Martin was drafted as a shortstop. So if your point is that Martin shouldn’t have played there, you are wrong. Obviously, they needed to find out if he could play shortstop, and if it took 115 games to see if this high draft choice could actually play his college position, so be it. As for filling the black hole at first base, they have tried both Julien and Miranda there. But I get your point. First base should be the easiest infield position to fill, requiring less fielding skills, speed and athleticism than the other infield positions. And it does make sense to experiment with Wallner at first, given Jenkins and EROD seem to be close to making the team, especially EROD. 

Austin Martin was never destined to be a SS. At least not a good one at the major league level. Doesn’t have the arm. In college an athletic guy can get away with pure athleticism. It shouldn’t have taken 115 games in the minors to find that out. Also, he played all over in college as well. He was drafted high for his bat and athleticism. Not because he was a superior SS. He played mostly 3B in college. I like that they encourage guys to play all over but as we’ve seen with the Twins defense over the years not having a a home position for guys to hone their craft defensively hurts as much as it helps. 

Roster management is always a factor. The Twins almost lsot Jax because they kept him in the reserve rotation role too long. Also remember that names like Guardado and Hawkins and Perkins were all bad starters that the Twins managed to convert to bullpen arms.

Rick Aguilera and Joe Nathan were also rotation arms before finding success as a starter. Rick actually returned to the rotation, albeit with limited results, rather than fully embrace the closer opportunities.

In the end, there are twice as many ways to make a roster as a bullpen arm, than a rotation arm, especially when at least three spots in a rotation are usually long-term with less turnover opportunities. The joy of being a young guy trying to be a starter is that once you get on the 40-man, you ARE THE DEPTHG is soemthing happens. Unfortunately, bullpen arms aren't paid as well as starters (but you don't get paid if you don't produce) and although you may have a long career, you may be on that minor/major shuffle for most of it.

Liam also had one really good season elsewhere  (after a bad season split between two teams) and then three okay to bad seasons before becoming the top-flight bullpen arm.