Twins 2020 Position Analysis: Left Field

This is the last season of Rosario, if he has a big year I think he is traded if he struggles and the second half Rosario reappears I think he is none tendered.  You have lot of other options which arm much cheaper who can replace for penny’s on the dollar. Hoping Rosie has a big year!

Wait to sell high. He's the most obvious and least painful choice to use as a centerpiece. No he won't fetch a true ace. That would take Kirby.

Nick, this series has been what I've looked forward to reading this spring, so thank you.

 

However, as I peruse the OPS+ data of the '87 Twins, I know there are two plays that I will never forget from the 2019 season. Eddie's pinch-hit 3-run blast off Petit at home against Oakland and his throw of the year to nail Devers at the plate in Boston.

 

From a data stand-point, it's hard to argue that Rosario may need to look over his shoulder this year, but I just think he has the intangible "It-factor". I think a team needs a guy or two with that to be truely complete.

This is a perfect example of analytics just flat out being wrong. .276/32/110 is hardly an off season. If he’d not been injured half the season, he might have been an MVP candidate.

Rosario has such a fun, easy name to chant in big-situations. 

 

"Edd-ie! Edd-ie!"

 

Not a lot of players on Twins have that. It's important.

 

This is a perfect example of analytics just flat out being wrong. .276/32/110 is hardly an off season. If he’d not been injured half the season, he might have been an MVP candidate.

 

welp, that's some hyperbole.

 

Eddie had his lowest BA in three years. Lowest OBP in 3 years. lowest OPS & OPS+. The defense was not good, by any measure.

 

I'm sure the injury influenced his struggles, but I don't see how you can look at Eddie Rosario's 2019 and think that it wasn't a decline from 2018. (unless you think that HRs and RBI are the end-all be-all of batting stats, I guess) Eddie is a good player, and when he's doing well on D and showing a little patience at the plate he can be a very good player, but he's never been an all-star, let alone an MVP candidate.

 

You have to feel good about our OF depth right now. Cave & Wade can both play LF just fine and their offensive production, while different, would likely match Rosario's overall offensive contribution from last year. With Rooker, Kirilloff, and Larnach in the wings it's hard to see the Twins keeping Rosario after this year with his price tag continuing to rise, unless he really turns the defense around and shows much more patience at the plate.

 

I don't see him getting dealt this year, though. If he's crushing it, the Twins will ride that into the playoffs. If he's struggling, they won't get anything for him anyways. The only way he gets moved before the deadline is if the whole team collapses and they're out of contention while he's crushing it. That seems...unlikely.

It is a good time to be a Twins fan when we complain about his numbers last year and being down. Five years ago we would have made him our MVP with those stats. Ideal situation is that Eddie has a bounce back year, reduces his K rate and makes the basic plays in the OF. If he does that, there will be a trade market for him and we can move one of the rookies into his position. Only way I see him sticking around is if we trade Kirrilloff or Larnach and the other has a bad year in the minors.

Have always been an Eddie fan, But he is the odd man out...forget Cave and Wade....get to the young guys.  Hopefully Eddie lights it up first 1/2 the year and can be part of a trade deadline deal for a pitcher.  and let one of the Kids take over.  

 

Not a Cave fan at all.......his D was terrible last year.....and if you are going cheap let one of the Kids get a start.........

 

This is a perfect example of analytics just flat out being wrong. .276/32/110 is hardly an off season. If he’d not been injured half the season, he might have been an MVP candidate.

No, it is just a case of you undervaluing advanced statistics and using traditional stats that support the narrative that you want to be true. .276/32/110 is not a bad season, but when that comes with a .300 on base percentage in an era of inflated offense those traditional stats carry less weight. 

I think people like to find reasons to pile on Rosario at this point. I think it’s pretty clear that the ankle injury derailed what was a huge season. People forget how good he was in the first half. This team was unbeatable when he was hitting. Also, he was the only guy who showed up in the playoffs.

 

But, some don’t see it that, and that’s fine.

 

I wouldn’t be shocked to see him have a career year offensively being healthy and entering his “prime seasons.”

 

At the end of the day, it’s all hopes and opinions. I sort of see it both ways, because I’m really anxious to see what Larnach or Kirillof can do.

This year if someone gets dinged up I wanna see them sat as long as necessary. If it's Eddie I don't want to see Cave 100% of the time I'd like to see a young guy worked in there. Make lemonade and use your depth!

 

Nick, this series has been what I've looked forward to reading this spring, so thank you.

However, as I peruse the OPS+ data of the '87 Twins, I know there are two plays that I will never forget from the 2019 season. Eddie's pinch-hit 3-run blast off Petit at home against Oakland and his throw of the year to nail Devers at the plate in Boston.

From a data stand-point, it's hard to argue that Rosario may need to look over his shoulder this year, but I just think he has the intangible "It-factor". I think a team needs a guy or two with that to be truely complete.

I agree wholeheartedly!    Especially the "it" factor as you label it.   Eddie is the proof for the old "lies, damned lies and statistics"   adage.  

 

And to top it off, he is FUN   to watch play, especially when he is having fun.

I expect it to be Eddie's last year because the kids will be ready and that's how it works.

 

But I worry that the team will miss his attitude almost more than his bat.

This is a perfect example of analytics just flat out being wrong. .276/32/110 is hardly an off season. If he’d not been injured half the season, he might have been an MVP candidate.

Yes, analytics has missed the boat on Eddie. He still put bat to ball 32 times for a bomba in 2019. For fun, I looked at the other MLB players who hit 32 HRs in 2019: Charlie Blackmon, Manny Machado, Ketel Marte, Francisco Lindor, and Rafael Devers. It's an interesting list to say the least and I wonder if any of them get the same amount of heat that Eddie does.

Agree. Let's not forget you can't use RBI's because that's about opportunity and not ability.

 

Have always been an Eddie fan, But he is the odd man out...forget Cave and Wade....get to the young guys.  Hopefully Eddie lights it up first 1/2 the year and can be part of a trade deadline deal for a pitcher.  and let one of the Kids take over.  

 

Not a Cave fan at all.......his D was terrible last year.....and if you are going cheap let one of the Kids get a start.........

Young guys got to prove it before you let one of them take over.  Will take an injury or major slump for them to get the opportunity. 
 

This is a key year for Eddie and the Twins. If guys come back to last year's offense (Garver), Eddie could be traded. If some young guys (Kiriloff) and Cave do well, he could be let go. I like Eddie and thin he really shows he cares. But somebody may have to go as salaries begin to jump. Management likes him and you don't need the best defense in left field- just be adequate. So we'll see.