The Twins Face Tough Decisions To Make Impactful Trades

2 hours ago, Nashvilletwin said:

Agree. Also, in 12 months, Lee will be a better offensive and defensive SS than Correa at 1/30th cost for the following five years.  That’s the equivalent of having an outstanding young QB on a rookie contract. 

If the Twins think this, you don't trade him for anybody and to be honest you find a place for him right now in your infield. To expect a 23 year old minor league kid to better than a 29 year probable HOF player in one year might be setting the expectations a bit high? I mean nothing like absolutely setting up a kid to be considered a disappointment.

2 hours ago, Nashvilletwin said:

Agree. Also, in 12 months, Lee will be a better offensive and defensive SS than Correa at 1/30th cost for the following five years.  That’s the equivalent of having an outstanding young QB on a rookie contract. 

I mean we all like the potential of Brooks Lee and he is a switch hitter too. Still, you are almost certainly the first person to suggest that Brooks Lee projects to be better in the field and at the plate than Carlos Correa.

I sure would like that though and one never knows what will occur with prospects, just like a box of chocolates.

1 hour ago, CoasterProductions said:

Here is one more for another rotation arm and a Vazquez replacement. The angels would probably eat some of Stassi’s salary for 2024

Would you trade Ober or Ryan for this group? I for sure wouldn't and I bet the Angels wouldn't do this either. I like the idea but you are going to have to give up something of a higher value than that group of players.

3 hours ago, Nashvilletwin said:

Agree. Also, in 12 months, Lee will be a better offensive and defensive SS than Correa at 1/30th cost for the following five years.  That’s the equivalent of having an outstanding young QB on a rookie contract. 

I pray Correa is much better this year and I also hope Lee is better than 1.1 WAR in 2025.  It will really sting if Correa is not closer to his career norms.  That money could have been spent on a top pitcher and Lewis or Lee at SS.  As a group we can't complain about a FO mistake when most people here were absolutely adamant about retaining him even when he was getting 12 years.  I guess there were quite a few of us against the initial $300M+ contract but I was one that was OK with the deal when it became a 6 year deal.  I would take it back now but I would still be crazy enough to invest in SP while understanding why the FO is very reluctant.

Great post, Cody.  And interesting discussion, very interesting.

I hated losing Arraez, but understood it.  Wouldn't like losing Julien, but for a similar return sure would understand.  The great news is that they still have Polo for the next year or two and Lee on the horizon.  Could continue being very good at second base while filling the #2 or #3 slot in the rotation.

My preference would be getting a young leftie with at least 2 years of control and then extend him for three or four.  That would keep Louie in St. Paul to fill in when one of the starters needs a break.  Highly likely Paddack is going to need a couple weeks during the season to keep him strong for the playoffs.  Varland could fill that spot and then move to the bullpen come September like this year.  

58 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

I'd be hard pressed to deal Jeffers, because he's a differenced maker (imo) at a position where the Twins have no depth.

I hope we both agree that Jeffers is not a difference maker on defense. Jeffers is a HR hitter & he hit a bunch of HRs this year but the greatest hit in his career is the opposite field single for his 1st & only career walk off. IMO he's not a difference maker  offensively. 

This FO (for some reason) has bet the farm on Jeffers. Which has severely handicapped us. Catching is a premium position & like other premium positions you have to always draft that position to make sure you have constant adequate depth. They have haven't drafted anyone significant for years which has created this dilemma at catching. Which IMO is gross negligence.

The 1st thing I look for in a catcher prospect is arm & the second is agility, the rest is icing. If I had to choose a 3rd it would be hitting in the clutch. That's why I consider Jeffers as a backup (present & future) & voiced that we need to get a strong arm, agile & that can hit, MLB ready catching prospect. My 1st was Endy Rodriguez, later he tore up the minors & debuted last season. Others are Dalton Rushing, Jefferson & Edgar Quero that should debut this season. All these have drastically went up in asking price. Others are Samuel Basallo & Kyle Teal which will debut the following year. The list of this good crop of up coming catchers are quickly getting more expensive, you can't drag your feet.

5 hours ago, CoasterProductions said:

I think the reason Lee is untouchable is because of when Polanco leaves. Either after this season or in a trade he would take over at second.

I'm not saying  you are wrong, but I think this is going to be Julien's position.  His defense is improving and the guy looks to be a quality professional hitter.

We had both Berrios and Gray that we did not value or keep and now they are trying to replace?  IMO we got absolutely nothing for Berrios.  Letting Gray go was ridiculous they should have given him what he wanted/deserved.  One suspicion is both wanted to get our of MN especially with the payroll cut.  I don't think they HAVE TO cut payroll.  They should have ponied up for both.

I still stand by a big trade likely involves 1 of Julien and Lee,  I would trade Lee as you will likely get more value for him.  I understand the defensive difference between the two players,  I just think Julien can play respectable defense while having a better bat than Lee.  Maybe I am wrong.  This only happens if you are going after an elite pitcher with 2 or more years of control.  I could also see Soto as a potential trade bait as well but beyond that, will just have to wait and see what they do.  1 of Polanco and Julien is likely traded.   I really don't think Kepler gets traded this year.   As to Vasquez,  who knows.  I think you just keep him as the backup and see if he bounces back.  Catching is one of those positions where hitting seems to vary considerably.  So we overpay a bit for a backup catcher,  there is worse ways to spend that money and unless someone is going to give you close to the value of the contract I think you would have to eat too much salary to make the trade work or giving away a prospect as a sweetener.   

2 minutes ago, MABB1959 said:

We had both Berrios and Gray that we did not value or keep and now they are trying to replace?  IMO we got absolutely nothing for Berrios.  Letting Gray go was ridiculous they should have given him what he wanted/deserved.  One suspicion is both wanted to get our of MN especially with the payroll cut.  I don't think they HAVE TO cut payroll.  They should have ponied up for both.

Tell me why the Twins would go hard after a player when they can get significant draft capital if they let him go?   We signed our Ace in Pablo.   We can fill in for a #2 with the trades as discussed here.  

9 minutes ago, nicksaviking said:

I don't actually. I used to, but not at this time. Top free agents starters are already past their prime, I'd rather trade for pitchers who's peak is still projectably ahead of them, like the team has been doing.

Well, actually I was only writing that in the sense of no budget limits whatsoever. Not all are past their primes, some are in their prime. But I get that it doesn't make sense to spend your budget on a guy who can get injured or flop. Will Verlander ever fall apart? JK.

34 minutes ago, nicksaviking said:

Seattle's top five arms are pretty tough to differentiate though. Miller is my least favorite, but others seem to like him more.

In any case, if they're talking about dealing what they view as their fourth or fifth starter, getting a Polanco or Kepler to help now and a top prospect(s) to help soon is probably somewhat appealing. 

I wondered about how they value these guys.  Some are more proven than others but you make a good point if they feel equally as comfortable with all five.  That just did not seem likely to me.  Damn nice for them if that's the case.  It's going to be tough to make that deal because there will be great competition for whomever they give up.  We helped put the Reds in great shape to beat out us for Seattle's pitching.

DocBauer, I think you're on the right track with us needing to lower our expectations somewhat.  I'm glad your comment was the last while I read through everyone else's and researched a bit.

I think CoasterProductions pretty much gave a highlight reel of all sorts of trades the Twins could make by giving very little up and getting TREMENDOUS value back.  It's like we should set some ground rules.  No, Seattle is NOT trading Kirby (98.6 value).  The Twins would have to offer Lewis and Walker Jenkins to come close to that "value."  Not happening.  Neither is Logan Gilbert at a 73.9 value.  He's out of our league.  Luis Castillo, due to the contract they gave him after acquiring him from the Reds has a of 20.8.  Seattle isn't trading him either, he's their Ace. 

Then you have Robbie Ray who after his Cy Young season the Mariners signed to a contract that will pay him about $25 million per season for the next 4-5 years and just missed the 2023 season with an injury.  They can't give away him away with his "negative" 30.2 value.  With the news that Yamamoto would prefer to pitch for Seattle and Washington native and defending National League Cy Young winner Blake Snell also favoring Seattle, assuming the Mariners actually sign one of them, it appears Seattle would have two rotation pieces to move for hitting.  (Seattle still has lefty Marco Gonzalez for depth.

Enter Bryce Miller 25.8 value 25 years old and Bryan Woo 24.6 value and 23 years old.  The Twins could go big and offer a blockbuster of Julien, Max Kepler and Marco Raya (Total Value 50.50) for BOTH Miller and Woo (50.40 Value).  Lopez at the top of the rotation, controlled for 5 years.  Miller, Woo, Ober and Ryan, all controlled for several more years.  That's a big swing, and highly unlikely.

But going after ONE of Miller or Woo makes sense.  Maybe Polanco, Miranda and Festa gets one of them.  Kepler (8.9) even up for Edward Cabrera (8.5) or a bigger deal Kepler & Nick Gordon for Cabrera and RHP Sixto Sanchez.  Sign a Giolito/Luis Severino type.  Those are probably more what you might see.  Solid moves, reducing the payroll (Polanco and Kepler both move to teams looking to contend). 

The Jeffers situation is interesting.  I'm not so sure he's a sure thing to hit like this next year or even ever again.  You sell when your asset is at its highest.  Jeffers at 33.3 is at his peak.  I too expect Vasquez to bounce back with the bat next year and his defense and handling of a pitching staff is excellent.  Am I the only one who wonders if a catcher like Vasquez was a big reason our pitching staff, especially the rotation performed so well last year?

So who could we trade Jeffers to?  A straight up deal to Cleveland for Tristen McKenzie would work, but the Tribe/Guards have a young Naylor behind the plate.  Seattle doesn't need Jeffers unless they would like to DH Raleigh more and I don't think that's the case.  MIAMI is the best fit.  But their Pitchers and values are a tough match.

Sandy Alcantara  15.3 value  28 y/o 5 yr. contract $56 million.    Braxton Garrett 52.0 value  26 y/o                                    Jesus Luzardo   54.7 26 y/o  Eury Perez 67.8 value  20 y/o  Edward Cabrera 8.5 value 26 y/o  Trevor Rodgers 17.4  26 y/o Max Meyer 16.7  24 y/o     Sixto Sanchez 0.0 value 26 y/o   Ryan Weathers  0.0 value  24 y/o.

Guys are either REALLY expensive and out of our league (Perez, Luzardo, Garrett) or are affordable like Cabrera or have no perceived value but diamond in the rough potential like Sanchez and Weathers.

You can get Cabrera and maybe a throw in like Sanchez straight up for Kepler or Polanco.  To get Luzardo or Garrett you'd have to trade Jeffers AND Emmanuel Rodriguez.  33.3 + 19.7 =53.00.  

Here's a wild idea:  Why not offer Jeffers straight up for Alcantara?  He's a former Cy young winner who is still young at 28 years old and has an attractive 5-year $56 million dollar contract that would fit into the Twins future budgets perfectly.  He had a down year last season and saw some diminished velocity.  But maybe Miami feels Perez, Luzardo and Garrett are their future Aces and would be glad to cut payroll? 

The Twins might have to overpay for a former Cy Young winner at 28 years old but maybe not considering how loaded with young pitching the Marlins are.  I'd start the talks by offering Jeffers 33.3 and Josh Winder 4.9  Total 38.2  for Alcantara 15.3 and either Trevor Rogers 17.4 26y/o or Max Meyer 16.7 24 y/o Total value 32.7 or 32.0.  Heck, I'd even ask for a Sixto Sanchez throw in.  We're still overpaying based on BBTV estimates.  A Vasquez and Jair Camargo catching tandem doesn't look bad at all if I've got affordable pitching like THAT coming back in the deal.

The Twins will NOT be in on Blake Snell, Yamamoto or anyone else priced $25 million or higher.  They won't even be in on Eduardo Rodriguez at $18-22 million a year.  But there ARE ways to improve this club even with the foolish self-imposed budget cuts.   

1 hour ago, Mike Sixel said:

Also, strong disagree hitting doesn't matter at catcher. Ridiculously strong disagree

If you research the catchers I proposed, you'll find out that they are also very good hitters. I just think when looking at catcher you don't 1st look to see if his bat plays there but to see if his glove does. 

39 minutes ago, TopGunn#22 said:

The Jeffers situation is interesting.  I'm not so sure he's a sure thing to hit like this next year or even ever again.  You sell when your asset is at its highest.  Jeffers at 33.3 is at his peak.  I too expect Vasquez to bounce back with the bat next year and his defense and handling of a pitching staff is excellent.  Am I the only one who wonders if a catcher like Vasquez was a big reason our pitching staff, especially the rotation performed so well last year?

Sandy Alcantara  15.3 value  28 y/o 5 yr. contract $56 million.   

Just to let you know TopGunn That I believe that Vazquez was a contributing factor for our rotation success. Much like Molina's retirement was a contributing factor why the STL rotation faltered.

Sandy Alcantra not only had a poor '23 but also had TJ surgery & will miss '24. 

1 hour ago, TopGunn#22 said:

DocBauer, I think you're on the right track with us needing to lower our expectations somewhat.  I'm glad your comment was the last while I read through everyone else's and researched a bit.

I think CoasterProductions pretty much gave a highlight reel of all sorts of trades the Twins could make by giving very little up and getting TREMENDOUS value back.  It's like we should set some ground rules.  No, Seattle is NOT trading Kirby (98.6 value).  The Twins would have to offer Lewis and Walker Jenkins to come close to that "value."  Not happening.  Neither is Logan Gilbert at a 73.9 value.  He's out of our league.  Luis Castillo, due to the contract they gave him after acquiring him from the Reds has a of 20.8.  Seattle isn't trading him either, he's their Ace. 

Then you have Robbie Ray who after his Cy Young season the Mariners signed to a contract that will pay him about $25 million per season for the next 4-5 years and just missed the 2023 season with an injury.  They can't give away him away with his "negative" 30.2 value.  With the news that Yamamoto would prefer to pitch for Seattle and Washington native and defending National League Cy Young winner Blake Snell also favoring Seattle, assuming the Mariners actually sign one of them, it appears Seattle would have two rotation pieces to move for hitting.  (Seattle still has lefty Marco Gonzalez for depth.

Enter Bryce Miller 25.8 value 25 years old and Bryan Woo 24.6 value and 23 years old.  The Twins could go big and offer a blockbuster of Julien, Max Kepler and Marco Raya (Total Value 50.50) for BOTH Miller and Woo (50.40 Value).  Lopez at the top of the rotation, controlled for 5 years.  Miller, Woo, Ober and Ryan, all controlled for several more years.  That's a big swing, and highly unlikely.

But going after ONE of Miller or Woo makes sense.  Maybe Polanco, Miranda and Festa gets one of them.  Kepler (8.9) even up for Edward Cabrera (8.5) or a bigger deal Kepler & Nick Gordon for Cabrera and RHP Sixto Sanchez.  Sign a Giolito/Luis Severino type.  Those are probably more what you might see.  Solid moves, reducing the payroll (Polanco and Kepler both move to teams looking to contend). 

The Jeffers situation is interesting.  I'm not so sure he's a sure thing to hit like this next year or even ever again.  You sell when your asset is at its highest.  Jeffers at 33.3 is at his peak.  I too expect Vasquez to bounce back with the bat next year and his defense and handling of a pitching staff is excellent.  Am I the only one who wonders if a catcher like Vasquez was a big reason our pitching staff, especially the rotation performed so well last year?

So who could we trade Jeffers to?  A straight up deal to Cleveland for Tristen McKenzie would work, but the Tribe/Guards have a young Naylor behind the plate.  Seattle doesn't need Jeffers unless they would like to DH Raleigh more and I don't think that's the case.  MIAMI is the best fit.  But their Pitchers and values are a tough match.

Sandy Alcantara  15.3 value  28 y/o 5 yr. contract $56 million.    Braxton Garrett 52.0 value  26 y/o                                    Jesus Luzardo   54.7 26 y/o  Eury Perez 67.8 value  20 y/o  Edward Cabrera 8.5 value 26 y/o  Trevor Rodgers 17.4  26 y/o Max Meyer 16.7  24 y/o     Sixto Sanchez 0.0 value 26 y/o   Ryan Weathers  0.0 value  24 y/o.

Guys are either REALLY expensive and out of our league (Perez, Luzardo, Garrett) or are affordable like Cabrera or have no perceived value but diamond in the rough potential like Sanchez and Weathers.

You can get Cabrera and maybe a throw in like Sanchez straight up for Kepler or Polanco.  To get Luzardo or Garrett you'd have to trade Jeffers AND Emmanuel Rodriguez.  33.3 + 19.7 =53.00.  

Here's a wild idea:  Why not offer Jeffers straight up for Alcantara?  He's a former Cy young winner who is still young at 28 years old and has an attractive 5-year $56 million dollar contract that would fit into the Twins future budgets perfectly.  He had a down year last season and saw some diminished velocity.  But maybe Miami feels Perez, Luzardo and Garrett are their future Aces and would be glad to cut payroll? 

The Twins might have to overpay for a former Cy Young winner at 28 years old but maybe not considering how loaded with young pitching the Marlins are.  I'd start the talks by offering Jeffers 33.3 and Josh Winder 4.9  Total 38.2  for Alcantara 15.3 and either Trevor Rogers 17.4 26y/o or Max Meyer 16.7 24 y/o Total value 32.7 or 32.0.  Heck, I'd even ask for a Sixto Sanchez throw in.  We're still overpaying based on BBTV estimates.  A Vasquez and Jair Camargo catching tandem doesn't look bad at all if I've got affordable pitching like THAT coming back in the deal.

The Twins will NOT be in on Blake Snell, Yamamoto or anyone else priced $25 million or higher.  They won't even be in on Eduardo Rodriguez at $18-22 million a year.  But there ARE ways to improve this club even with the foolish self-imposed budget cuts.   

I like your thoughts and responses on Twins Daily. You also propose a number of options when it comes to trades.

What I cannot understand is your insistence on using BTV so closely. Why? I get that it works as a baseline guide of sorts. However, it goes all over the place and changes rapidly. Last offseason Miranda and Arraez were valued the same and both were at least 10 points less than Pablo Lopez. Wander Javier was near 15 at one point if my memory is close and just last week Jovani Moran was worth 10 points. In November Polanco went from 4 to 8 without playing. I get that this tool uses a ton of data and replicates a view of player worth. I actually think it is worth a glance, but close adherence to it doesn't make sense.

Shuffling numbers does not take into consideration the needs of a team. Keller (PIT) is the only pitcher worth noting to start next season. Pittsburgh has specifically stated that they are not rebuilding and hope to field a competitive team. Trading Keller is akin to the Twins trading Lopez and Ryan for position players. All teams will trade any player if it clearly makes their team better and trades of MVPs happen, but the roster balance, salaries, and fit are all key to trades. The Miami-Minnesota transaction last offseason would not have passed BTV, but was a good example of teams filling holes. Both teams made the playoffs due in part to the contributions from their acquired player. 

I find it hard to understand the rapid shift to using BTV by so many folks and am not understanding why people have become so enthralled with their numbers.  I think I have followed BTV for only three or four years and am not opposed to looking it over.

Why is everyone saying "trade Lee."  Just a year ago, everyone was jumping up and down screaming for joy at our luck in landing the guy.  He had a good year in the minors, and now everyone says trade him. 

My whole thing is I’m not interested in acquiring a middle rotation guy. I want another big swing like Pablo López. That means Polo and Kep ain’t getting it done. That’s why I put Julien front and center as a starter. Add Kepler and a prospect and we might have something. 

First off of players mentioned I would only trade Rodriguez and as for the likes of veterans like Polanco, Kepler, farmer, and Vasquez I would use those as pieces in a trade package.  Do not forget the Astros are interested in Vasquez and the mariners are very interested in Polanco.   Perhaps putting Vasquez and Rodriguez in a package for Chaz Mccormick who is right handed and can play center field with some team control left.  Then move Polanco, farmer, and a couple prospects for a good pitcher like Gilbert or kirby from the mariners.   Use the veterans to minimize the need to trade projects while filling needs and cutting payroll.

8 hours ago, Fat Calvin said:

Why is everyone saying "trade Lee."  Just a year ago, everyone was jumping up and down screaming for joy at our luck in landing the guy.  He had a good year in the minors, and now everyone says trade him. 

I think the "trade Lee" chatter has more to do with .... which position does he play for the Twins? Lee is obviously ready for his MLB debut this coming season, but we have Lewis at third, Correa, at shortstop, Kiriloff at First Base, and at this juncture Polanco is at Second. So, Lee is sort of the odd man out and due his super prospect status he has a LOT of trade value, so I think the Twins would be foolish not to consider some good offers. 

15 hours ago, DocBauer said:

One thing that fascinates me about various trade options presented here, and elsewhere, is the "largeness" of the presentations. Gray has basically been a #1-2 most of his career, never worse than a really good #3. And we got him for 2yrs for a rookie #1 draft selection in Petty. Now, Petty has some great potential, but an 18yo complete unknown  for Gray was pretty crazy. And while Arraez is a wonderful ballplayer, and a fan favorite, he brought back a young-ish #3 rotation arm with upside who had flashed at times. Forget anyone else thrown in, Arraez for Lopez straight up was a solid deal.

So why is everything 3 of the Twins top prospects or a couple of them and a current player...or two...for a SP? I keep looking at past FO moves and I keep thinking they will make a "smaller" move of 1 or 2 players/prospects for a Miller from Seattle, or Cabrera from Miami, or similar that is young and in whom they see upside.

We just don't know what other teams wants are. I can easily see someone wanting Polanco over Julien or Lee, for example, and for different reasons. I can see the Twins moving one of them, but not more. I can see moving one of Wallner, or Rodriguez, but not both. And as greatly talented as Rodriguez is, Wallner might be the "safer" of the two for the Twins to keep. 

Just saying, I would be surprised if the FO made a headlining move, and would more expect something like the Gray or Lopez kind of trade, that might even work out as good or better, and cost less.

Honestly, I almost want/expect a bounce back option like Giolito for upside return, or the best 2nd tier SP FA they like to deepen and stabalize the rotation while banking on a full return of Paddack and improvement from Ryan and Ober, and THEN use left over $ and some trade options...like Polanco...to add a bat, settle CF, or add a piece to the pen.

 

I expect Giolito will bounce back too. I wouldn't mind the Twins signing him to bolster the rotation.