The Path to an Elite Minnesota Twins Bullpen in 2025

Counting on Stewart to be a key piece of the bullpen would be malpractice by the Front Office.  He has never pitched over 30 innings and is in his thirties.  Topa is in his mid thirties and has had one good year.  These two should not be part of the planning for a bullpen except for filling in as needed.

8 hours ago, mike8791 said:

I like optimism for bmy favorite team, but I believe the rose-colored glasses need to come off.  No doubting Jax's amazing year, but how often do even the most elite relievers repeat?  I keep reading about Duran's bad luck, excellent stats, etc., but the man lost 9 GAMES!  He could bounce back - or he could continue his decline.  Sands had a surprisingly good year, but this is one year out of a very mediocre record.  Alcala and Varland are far too unpredictable to count on in critical situations.  Stewart's injury history precludes him from being counted on.  Ditto w/Topa.  

Bottom line - the FO needs to add a reliable LH reliever and another mid-inning RP to offer the team a reasonable pathway to top billing in 2025.  Counting on the existing roster is a fool's errand.

So you are saying that we need healthy players. 

So many interesting viewpoints regarding the bullpen.  My opinion is that our bullpen could be OK k but it could just as easily be a disaster.  Last year we were told it would be one of the best bullpen in baseball.  That sure didn't pan out.  We get the usual excuses of bad luck.  Come on.  Let's get real.  It takes talent.  The Twins will shop the dumpster to find a few injured arms and proclaim what good deals they made and how great the bullpen is.  

3 hours ago, Fire Dan Gladden said:

I think it is a little early to make that choice with Varland.  If the Twins decide to keep him as a starter, he will have to make adjustments and prove he is more than a AAAA pitcher.  I don't see that happening until he gets a dozen MiLB starts in 2025.

I think there is a strong possibility the Twins sign another scrap heap starter to provide some depth.

Yes they will. Hopefully one off the top of the pile. 

11 hours ago, mike8791 said:

I like optimism for bmy favorite team, but I believe the rose-colored glasses need to come off.  No doubting Jax's amazing year, but how often do even the most elite relievers repeat?  I keep reading about Duran's bad luck, excellent stats, etc., but the man lost 9 GAMES!  He could bounce back - or he could continue his decline.  Sands had a surprisingly good year, but this is one year out of a very mediocre record.  Alcala and Varland are far too unpredictable to count on in critical situations.  Stewart's injury history precludes him from being counted on.  Ditto w/Topa.  

Bottom line - the FO needs to add a reliable LH reliever and another mid-inning RP to offer the team a reasonable pathway to top billing in 2025.  Counting on the existing roster is a fool's errand.

repeating is one of the things that makes elite relievers elite

15 hours ago, bean5302 said:

I'd suspect they'll be pursuing Gary Sanchez pretty hard as well.

I'd almost forgotten that Sanchez was still playing!

7 hours ago, DocBauer said:

Fundeburk...who looked in 2023 like he might have that kind of potential, Headrick if he's converted to the pen, Moran if/when he's back 100% and ready to go, and maybe even someone like Nowlin are all depth pieces from the LH side

Some interesting names you point out there. More than one of those players could step up and help the bullpen this season.

17 hours ago, old nurse said:

As it stands right now one of Festa or Mathew’s is the sixth starter.  Who is the seventh starter to start the season. Raya has had all of 1 start at AAA, Morris has had 7 starts but only 34 innings.   Unless they feign a better than Plutko type there needs to have another backup  to start  Varland will need to stay a starter. 

Who was the 7th starter in 2024? Festa, who had 3 starts and 12 1/3 innings in AAA in 2023. Right now, the rotation is Lopez, Ober, Ryan, SWR, Paddack (unless traded) with Festa or Matthews next up. Both have passed Varland at this point. I don't think there's a real problem in having a prospect like Morris, Adams, Raya, or Lewis be 7-10 on the options list.

Varland does not need to stay a starter, and the Twins don't need to sign another back end veteran  waste of money starter.

9 hours ago, DocBauer said:

Just to be real for a moment, I doubt there's a team in all of MLB...and their fans...who aren't saying 'if we're healthy" or "if this guy rebounds" or "If this guy can do it a second time" we can have a good/better pen. 

I'm actually very optimistic about the pen for 2025. I like the talent, and I like the mix, and I like the potential depth. You start with the best 8 you can put together. And you know you're going to need a good 12 because guys will get dinged, hurt, hurt for the season, have a bad half, or a bad year, etc. But you start with as much talent and depth as you can assemble. Right now, the Twins have a hell of a good start on that part of the equation. 

Duran, Jax, Stewart, Varland, Alcala, Sands, Topa, and Tonkin from the RH side. Henriquez, Canterino, Duarte, and potential surprise in prospect Adams making a conversion to the pen are additional options and depth. Heck, even Dobnak as an add, DFA, and then re-sign to St Paul is available as a temporary fill in option.

Stewart's procedure wasn't major surgery, he feels great, he and the Twins both seem optimistic, so I am too. If he's only good for 30 IP, then I'll take them and bring someone up later in the year. You don't like Tonkin for only $1.5-7M? Fine. He can be cut any time. But he's been really solid as a middle man for 2yrs now and 160 IP with decent peripherals. He's not a setup man. He's a solid innings eater on the cheap to save the rest of the pen. We've already seen Varland be outstanding for 1-2 IP as a starter and from the pen. It's trying to go 4+ when things start to go bad. So why can't he develop in to an excellent pen arm? Why can't Sands be good, even with some regression? Why can't we count on Alcala and his stuff if he's not over used? Why can't Topa join Tonkin as a solid middle man if his knee is healthy?

Obviously I'm going a little overboard here, but I'm just making a point.

I don't want a LH or a pair of LH in the pen just because they are. I want one or two that are GOOD PITCHERS because having a lefty can be a real advantage at times. One of the TOP priorities for the FO this offseason, IMO, is to find a way to add just one good, solid, dependable LH arm that can hold his own against RH bats. Because there's going to be a big game when we really need to get a tough LH bat or two out in a crucial spot. So to me, it's not just a luxury.

Fundeburk...who looked in 2023 like he might have that kind of potential, Headrick if he's converted to the pen, Moran if/when he's back 100% and ready to go, and maybe even someone like Nowlin are all depth pieces from the LH side that might rise to the occasion at some point in 2025, or at least be useful.

The more arms, the more depth, the more possibilities you get it right and have a good, deep, dependable pen. 

I'm pretty optimistic about the pen, even without notions of Raya or Prielipp moving to the pen. Just please Mr Falvey, find that LH we can depend on and really need.

100% with you.  I would like to add two things that I've seen in the comments:

1.  Jax remains in the bullpen.  And I'm fine if he is the closer.  Crazy to move him from a position of extreme competence to something else.  Peter principle?

2.  Varland is a relief pitcher.  I don't care if the Twins don't have enough depth at starter; that is a different problem.  Varland has proven that he doesn't get it done the second time (much less 3 times) through the batting order.

I feel pretty good for our pen for 2025, but I'll admit a lot of things need to fall our way. The main one is healthy. Stewart, Topa, Alcala and maybe Canterino need to put their injuries behind them. We need no sophomore slumps or down years from our main guys, which is asking a lot from relievers. I think we have a real good group, we just need to supplement a bit to fill them out. Moran, if healthy, could be the number two lefty if he looks good in spring. We need to sign a lefty with strikeout stuff and some credibility. I'd also like to keep Tonkin but sign another right as injury insurance. I'm really hoping Canterino, and possibly even Prelipp can crack the roster out of ST, both could be a real late inning weapon for us.

Brock Stewart will not be some savior to our pen. Yes, he had a great 27 innings in 2023.  You know who had at least an effective 21 innings last year?  Josh Staumont. Now some will say yeah, but Staumont FIP was not in line with his ERA.  Okay, well despite Stewart's very low ERA in his 27 innings, you know what his FIP was?  Ended 2.21 but peaked at 4.26, due to his limited innings it will move a lot. 

Point is, we cannot expect some dominate performance from Stewart even if he is healthy, simply because his track record is not there, and he could very well have just had a hot 27 innings.  Also, what in his history suggests he can stay healthy?  Never pitched more than 34 innings in a season at MLB level.  He did pitch plenty as a starter when he was down in AAA but he was not effective as a starter at MLB level and then after 2019 his innings just have not been there. 

Maybe, just maybe he will bounce back and be effective, but counting on him will be a huge mistake. 

2 hours ago, jmlease1 said:

Right now, the rotation is Lopez, Ober, Ryan, SWR, Paddack (unless traded) with Festa or Matthews next up.

Unless they use Jax as a starter, in which case they definitely need to trade Paddack.

1 hour ago, jmlease1 said:

Who was the 7th starter in 2024? Festa, who had 3 starts and 12 1/3 innings in AAA in 2023. Right now, the rotation is Lopez, Ober, Ryan, SWR, Paddack (unless traded) with Festa or Matthews next up. Both have passed Varland at this point. I don't think there's a real problem in having a prospect like Morris, Adams, Raya, or Lewis be 7-10 on the options list.

Varland does not need to stay a starter, and the Twins don't need to sign another back end veteran  waste of money starter.

At the start of spring training SWR would have been your 7ths starter behind Varland as the 6th. SWR was called up after 3 minor league starts.  

The conundrum for the Twins is ERA wise Paddack, Mathews, Festa and Varland were not so good. The advanced metrics are a little different for them as well as SWR. That would cause uncertainty in the future performance of your 4-7 pitchers.

The developing pitchers if counted on early in the season will be gassed by September. I don’t think any have pitched over 100 innings in a season 

43 minutes ago, Trov said:

Brock Stewart will not be some savior to our pen. Yes, he had a great 27 innings in 2023.  You know who had at least an effective 21 innings last year?  Josh Staumont. Now some will say yeah, but Staumont FIP was not in line with his ERA.  Okay, well despite Stewart's very low ERA in his 27 innings, you know what his FIP was?  Ended 2.21 but peaked at 4.26, due to his limited innings it will move a lot. 

Point is, we cannot expect some dominate performance from Stewart even if he is healthy, simply because his track record is not there, and he could very well have just had a hot 27 innings.  Also, what in his history suggests he can stay healthy?  Never pitched more than 34 innings in a season at MLB level.  He did pitch plenty as a starter when he was down in AAA but he was not effective as a starter at MLB level and then after 2019 his innings just have not been there. 

Maybe, just maybe he will bounce back and be effective, but counting on him will be a huge mistake. 

here's the thing, though: as long as we don't move Jax back to the rotation (which I maintain would be a dreadful mistake) we don't need Stewart to be a savior. With Varland moving into the 'pen it should also reduce how much we're counting on him or Topa to be healthy and whatever we get out of them is whatever we get. Duran, Jax, Sands, Alcala are all pitchers capable of throwing in high leverage roles. Varland can be used like Sands was last season: lower leverage early, increasing leverage roles as he proves his capability. Stewart lands as a 5th guy at the back of the bullpen instead needing him to be the 2nd or 3rd. That's the advantage of Jax stepping up (and staying in the bullpen) and Sands and Alcala being healthy and impactful.

If we can find a LHP that is acceptable against RH hitters, this bullpen should be quite good. Unfortunately, you simply can't run out a guy like Okert, who might be death to lefties, but makes all righties look like Mookie Betts, any longer. Moran will likely need some time to get back into a groove after the injury and surgery, Funderbruk isn't reliable enough yet, Thielbar looks cooked even if we wanted him back, and Prielipp needs more minor league innings. But if we can get that solid LHP to add to this bullpen, they're going to be in good shape even if Stewart or Topa aren't ready for Opening Day.

No more Jacksons, no more Okerts. keep Jax in the 'pen where he can be great.