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    Sano Going To Let It Eat


    Ted Schwerzler

    With big expectations, there are big responsibilities. It's fair to say that since signing with the Minnesota Twins as a teenager, Miguel Sano has been the focal point of some very big expectations. His massive power potential has long been the narrative, and despite being signed as a shortstop, the feeling was always that his bat and frame would push him from the position. Fast forward to 2018 and we've got a near-25 year-old who's toyed with those expectations, but has overlooked some of the responsibilities.

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    Entering the regular season, Miguel Sano finds himself in somewhat of a limbo. After being accused of sexual assault over the offseason (from an incident stemming years earlier), he awaits his fate as MLB conducts their investigation. My assumption is that some sort of discipline will be handed down, and given previous league decisions, it should come in somewhere under 30 games. Coming off a year in which he played 114 games for the Twins, he should still have opportunity to top that output. That being said, it's yet again another responsibility he's failed to make good on.

    With reporters descending on Fort Myers for the beginning of Spring Training, it's once again come to light that Sano is significantly overweight. Derek Falvey hinted at that notion, suggesting the Minnesota third basemen's recovery from injury has gone well, but that he needs to now focus on getting to where he needs to be with his conditioning. That is a politically correct way of putting it, and in previous seasons Patrick Reusse has called it what it is. Miguel Sano is overweight.

    Looking back to Reusse's column in March 2016, I had an issue with there seemingly being a suggested link between Sano being hurt because of being fat. While that may not have been fair, the Star Tribune columnist has been spot on when it comes to pegging the poundage for young Miguel. Once again, he's entered camp staring at 300 pounds and comes in around the 290 mark. To suggest that hampers relative production is unfair, but there are more than a few takeaways when it comes to what the scale is telling us.

    First and foremost, there's a real lack of accountability to Minnesota for Sano. Having invested in him heavily as a player, and his development, the Twins have worked with him to stay on the infield dirt far earlier than the new regime's days. While shortstop was never going to be a reality, positional value at third base is significantly higher than having to be moved across the diamond as Joe Mauer's heir, or worse, solely a designated hitter. Despite having employed nutritionists in the clubhouse, and undoubtedly using offseason check-ins, Sano hasn't accomplished the Twins' goals in multiple seasons when it comes to his habits.

    Secondly, there's the fallout in regard to the lack of accountability. Because of allowing his weight to balloon, the reality is that Sano's long-term value is sapped exponentially. Forget the reality that an increase to injury potential is a by-product of being overweight, the loss of a position makes one of the Twins greatest assets one dimensional. Even if he heads to first base, which is far from a foregone conclusion, Sano isn't viewed as the asset he could be if he was able to stick at the hot corner. Recently, KSTP's Darren Wolfson noted what was suspected all along: Sano wasn't going to entice the Rays into dealing Archer when seen as a one dimensional player.

    At the end of the day, there are a few hard and fast realities for the Twins and Miguel Sano. First and foremost, they have a 24 year old who has failed to hold himself accountable, and has done so on multiple occasions. Secondly, they also have an extremely good ballplayer, who's capable of producing some of the greatest power outputs the game has seen on a year-by-year basis. I believe that in 2018 and beyond, Miguel Sano will put up multiple 30-plus homer seasons, and that he'll be of significant value going forward. I do also believe that the only person lowering his ceiling is himself.

    No matter how his assault case shakes out, it seems as if there are multiple aspects of growing up when it comes to the opposite sex. No matter what his weight gets to, it's apparent there's a significant level of responsibility that can yet be adhered to. For both Miguel Sano and the Minnesota Twins, a stronger commitment to oneself from the player benefits all involved. Right now, there's a very talented ballplayer who can compete and produce at a very high level. If there is a comfortable situation here, where a point has been reached that improvement isn't demanded of the player to unlock superstar potential, well then, we'll only be able to wonder, what if?

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    This is just a point of discussion now. It will become more important when arbitration comes around and the Twins use the lack of availability as an argument for lower pay.  Even a bigger issue when the discussion of a long term contract starts. Sano is really hurting himself in terms of his future.  It isn't the positional issue (I have always viewed him as a first baseman) as much as durability and longevity. The Hrbek analogy is very appropriate. A very good player who could have been so much more for so much longer.

     

    mlbtv just did a quick thing with Peter Gammons this morning and they showed Sano hitting. He doesn't look fat by any means.

     

    Miguel Sano is accused of doing something he should be ashamed of and criticized for.

     

    Why the hell do we have to have a bi-monthly rip fest about his weight?  What makes people want to conjure up those criticisms with little or no evidence to back them up?

     

    The BP video is up-thread, I'd like to hear someone tell me with a straight face that he looks like the bloated 290 pounder that some in this thread were accusing him of being.  

     

    mlbtv just did a quick thing with Peter Gammons this morning and they showed Sano hitting. He doesn't look fat by any means.

    He looks great for a DH and maybe a 1B. I have long maintained that he is going to be playing less and less 3B each year. I would put the over/under on his games started at 3B at 50% of his total game played.

    But I don't really care. IF he produces like most expect him to produce then those will be great numbers even at DH.

    Miguel Sano is accused of doing something he should be ashamed of and criticized for.

     

    Why the hell do we have to have a bi-monthly rip fest about his weight?  What makes people want to conjure up those criticisms with little or no evidence to back them up?

     

    The BP video is up-thread, I'd like to hear someone tell me with a straight face that he looks like the bloated 290 pounder that some in this thread were accusing him of being.

     

    And that video was a very accurate view of how he looked doing infield drills yesterday, as I said earlier.

     

    All it matters: 

    Sano's MLB career line: 359 wOBA, 124 wRC+

    and that's with him battling injuries and he still is a few season's off his prime.

     

    Mauer's career line:  .361 wOBA, 124 wRC+

     

    Eeriliy similar, yet the same people who seemingly want to crucify Sano based on his genetics want to send Mauer to Cooperstown.

     

    Sano is already answering his critics with really long fly balls at Fort Myers.  I hope he continues throughout the season, overweight or not.

     

    Babe Ruth should be happy that the BMI police was not around then...

    Genetics make you consume more calories than you expend? 

    You're moving the goalposts.

     

    Are we really going to pretend like he was going to be a long term fixture at 3B? The guy has had documented issues fielding the ball almost since MN signed him.

     

    That wasn't the point though. The point was that you're professing to know what a healthy baseline for Sano is, and then you're using that to forecast the future. That is pure conjecture but it's being thrown around this thread as if it's fact.

    There aren’t a lot of 300 pounders in MLB playing any position. Mo Vaughn in his last few years. But really no one has carried that kind of weight through an entire successful career. I personally don’t consider Sandoval to have had a successful career. One season of 80 RBI. Injuries and mediocrity since the age of 24.

     

    Ortiz wasn’t in the 300 range for most of his career. Maybe the last 4-5 years of it.

     

    Yes, Vargas is there now, but he really hasn’t had much of a career either.

    I think the concern about the weight stems from the team's concern. If his bosses weren't concerned we wouldn't be either. At least not to the same extent. The team actually talks to the kid. So public concern from the fo is a thing. Probably not a big thing. But it's there. Way behind the k's but still there.

     

    You're moving the goalposts.

     

    Are we really going to pretend like he was  going to be a long term fixture at 3B? The guy has had documented issues fielding the ball almost since MN signed him. 

     

    That wasn't the point though. The point was that you're professing to know what a healthy baseline for Sano is, and then you're using that to forecast the future. That is pure conjecture but it's being thrown around this thread as if it's fact. 

     

    No, I'm not. I'm deferring to the people in charge of the Twins -- who clearly have an issue with it.

    He looks great for a DH and maybe a 1B. I have long maintained that he is going to be playing less and less 3B each year. I would put the over/under on his games started at 3B at 50% of his total game played.

     

    But I don't really care. IF he produces like most expect him to produce then those will be great numbers even at DH.

    Will you care if he averages 115 games per year for his career at $25 mil plus?

     

    I think the concern about the weight stems from the team's concern. If his bosses weren't concerned we wouldn't be either. At least not to the same extent. The team actually talks to the kid. So public concern from the fo is a thing. Probably not a big thing. But it's there. Way behind the k's but still there.

     

    This is fine.  I also hope he takes the fitness advice from the Twins seriously, I just won't get caught up in hyperbole about his weight like much of this thread devolved into.

     

    The character assassination here is getting pretty thick. There are plenty of people reacting to the character assassination, which makes it hard to have any sort of reasonable discussion on the matter. Sano very well may deserve some of it, but I don't think many of us are without sin either... so let's stop casting stones. 

    This is the crux of it for me. I don't care for the obsession with his weight, especially when numbers are thrown around with no basis. That in and of itself is irksome, but I think you touched on the larger issue, which is that those assumptions about his weight are then used to question character.  

     

    Why the hell do we have to have a bi-monthly rip fest about his weight?  What makes people want to conjure up those criticisms with little or no evidence to back them up?

    The timing is very convenient.

     

    It's curious that the criticism is often heightened when he is most vulnerable, i.e. unable to defend himself with his performance on the field.

     

    No, I'm not. I'm deferring to the people in charge of the Twins -- who clearly have an issue with it.

    If you're talking about the FO making comments about Sano needing to get back to game shape this ST following offseason leg surgery then we're in agreement. The Twins and Sano should be focused on that. There was no way he was going to be able to show up to camp in the condition either side would have liked. 

     

    This FO hasn't made any comments about what a healthy weight for Sano is, and they certainly haven't touched on whether he'll be able to continue producing into his late 20s and early 30s. That was your addition to thread, and that was what I objected to. 

    Edited by KirbyDome89

    My concern isn't necessarily that he's coming in "overweight". It's been pointed out multiple times that each person has a different ideal weight because of height and body type. My concern is that if he's being given a weight goal going into an offseason of what the team wants him to weigh coming into the spring, and he's missing it, that's a huge problem. He's basically telling his bosses that he doesn't feel the need to do what they ask of him. That shows a lack of discipline and accountability on his part. I get why people are saying, "but he's still good". Great. Awesome. My response is why stop at "good" when with a little discipline he could be "great"?

     

    My concern isn't necessarily that he's coming in "overweight". It's been pointed out multiple times that each person has a different ideal weight because of height and body type. My concern is that if he's being given a weight goal going into an offseason of what the team wants him to weigh coming into the spring, and he's missing it, that's a huge problem. He's basically telling his bosses that he doesn't feel the need to do what they ask of him. That shows a lack of discipline and accountability on his part. I get why people are saying, "but he's still good". Great. Awesome. My response is why stop at "good" when with a little discipline he could be "great"?

     

    That doesn't seem to be uncommon with 24-year-olds. I've been saying for a couple of years that hopefully he sees the light if he struggles, fails and finds that life isn't going to be quite as easy as it appeared with youthful eyes. I took awhile to learn that lesson, I'm guessing many other young folks have too. I was hoping this off season would be the year for him, but with the off field stuff and the injury, it may not be.

     

    My concern is that if he's being given a weight goal going into an offseason of what the team wants him to weigh coming into the spring, and he's missing it, that's a huge problem. He's basically telling his bosses that he doesn't feel the need to do what they ask of him. That shows a lack of discipline and accountability on his part.

     

    Has he, though? Is there any evidence that suggests the team told him to hit a specific number, and he chose to ignore his bosses? Maybe there is, but I don't think anyone here has come across it.

     

    Generally, I don't understand the need to invent realities simply to argue against those realities. By all available photo and video evidence, Sano is about the same size he was last year. I buy that he's not quite in playing shape, but that's a far cry from what a few people here have described in spite of documented visual evidence. But why believe that when someone on Twins Daily says Sano is lazy and obese? I don't know. Maybe you and others can explain it to me.

     

    That doesn't seem to be uncommon with 24-year-olds. I've been saying for a couple of years that hopefully he sees the light if he struggles, fails and finds that life isn't going to be quite as easy as it appeared with youthful eyes. I took awhile to learn that lesson, I'm guessing many other young folks have too. I was hoping this off season would be the year for him, but with the off field stuff and the injury, it may not be.

    Finally.

    Kid's 24. Not all players are going to develop at the same rate.

    He works hard, by my eyeball test. Several ST worth.

    And he was in FM training prior to reporting.

    Some of this is simply over the top conjecture.

     

    I just haven’t seen people say he is heavy and weak. Injury risk.... fair. But power isn’t a result of conditioning as much as quick twitch and strength for bat speed. When I see his bat speed and batted ball velocity drop, then I’ll get on his case.

    Could it be that he is stronger from working out but just can’t choose the chicken breast over the pizza? I don’t need the guy to have a six pack if he still hits the ball 500 ft

    Makes sense. I guess my concern is that he doesn’t turn into a 36 year-old Jim Thome before he turns 26, especially because Sano won’t have Thome’s value in the clubhouse.

     

    It's rather mind boggling to me to see so many posters posit that being overweight doesn't negatively affect a baseball player.

     

    That just doesn't make sense.

     

    Not rendering him useless is not the same as not negatively affecting his performance.  At the very LEAST, it slows a baseball player down.  It almost certainly HAS to negatively affect ankle, knee, and hip joints.  And I'm just not buying the idea that a 3rd baseman isn't negatively affected defensively if he's carrying extra pounds.

     

    C'mon people.  

    Well said, couldn't agree more.

     

    There seems to be a relief among some that Sano has been mashing in BP.  Not sure why anyone would expect anything different from him.  It's what he does.  But he's capable of so much more, even in the field.  He's selling himself, and therefore his team and fans, short by not staying fit enough to be an asset at third base.  And I cannot fathom why so many are willing to give him a pass for that.

    Sano's face looked noticeably bigger in the main pic on the startrib article, but in the video he doesn't look much bigger than last year so maybe it's just the angle or he just gained 10 pounds in the face.

     

    He was 290 when diagnosed with the stress fracture last year per another article written about a week ago. I know he wasn't destined for 3B for much longer but I was hoping another 2-3 years at 260 lbs or so would be possible.

     

    Well said, couldn't agree more.

     

    There seems to be a relief among some that Sano has been mashing in BP.  Not sure why anyone would expect anything different from him.  It's what he does.  But he's capable of so much more, even in the field.  He's selling himself, and therefore his team and fans, short by not staying fit enough to be an asset at third base.  And I cannot fathom why so many are willing to give him a pass for that.

     

    No one is talking about BP because he's mashing.  BP has come up because there is video of him doing it where he looks to be in about the same shape he was in last year.  That fact flies in the face of what some have suggested here that he ballooned to the point of never being able to play third base again.

     

    The video refutes a lot of characterizations of his conditioning and reinforces what some first hand observers noted.  It has nothing to do with how he is "mashing".

    From this article by the Pioneer Press' Brian Murphy:

     

    *Meanwhile, manager Paul Molitor is still trying to establish a deeper relationship with Sano to help the talented but enigmatic cleanup hitter reach his full potential as a reliable run-producer and professional.

     

    "Talented, but..." speaks volumes here.  

     

    *Molitor said he has enlisted teammates to help Sano focus and hone his craft, but that has produced mixed results.

     

    If a player was doing just fine on his own, it wouldn't be necessary for the manager to round up other players to babysit Sano to 'focus'.    

     

    *“I think the trend has been he’s figuring some things out; some things have been a little harder to get through to him,” Molitor said. “At times I’ve tried to involve people that might be able to provide a voice that will penetrate. We’re just trying to get him to see the bigger picture.

     

    “He loves to play. It’s all in front of him. He, as much as anyone in that clubhouse, wants what’s in front of him, but I’m not sure he understands what is required to reap those rewards — of competing, winning, financial security, taking care of his family. We’re trying.”

     

    "Some things have been a little harder to get through to him"?  To me that's coachspeak for 'No matter what we say, this is someone who has to figure it out for himself, and he either can't or won't do that on his own to this point...'  The underlined statements above come across to me as general statements that may as well be red flags.  Big ones.

     

    Sano has the potential to be a generational big leaguer.  These types of talents don't grow on trees, especially for the Twins.  I cannot understand why so many people are willing to give him a pass on his lack of conditioning and / or devotion to his craft.  The Twins are going to have to decide fairly soon if Sano is someone they want to hitch their wagon to long term.  Sano himself is making what should be a no-brainer of a choice for the Twins front office a real head-scratcher.

     

     

     

     

    From this article by the Pioneer Press' Brian Murphy:

     

    *Meanwhile, manager Paul Molitor is still trying to establish a deeper relationship with Sano to help the talented but enigmatic cleanup hitter reach his full potential as a reliable run-producer and professional.

     

    "Talented, but..." speaks volumes here.  

     

    *Molitor said he has enlisted teammates to help Sano focus and hone his craft, but that has produced mixed results.

     

    If a player was doing just fine on his own, it wouldn't be necessary for the manager to round up other players to babysit Sano to 'focus'.    

     

    *“I think the trend has been he’s figuring some things out; some things have been a little harder to get through to him,” Molitor said. “At times I’ve tried to involve people that might be able to provide a voice that will penetrate. We’re just trying to get him to see the bigger picture.

     

    “He loves to play. It’s all in front of him. He, as much as anyone in that clubhouse, wants what’s in front of him, but I’m not sure he understands what is required to reap those rewards — of competing, winning, financial security, taking care of his family. We’re trying.”

     

    "Some things have been a little harder to get through to him"?  To me that's coachspeak for 'No matter what we say, this is someone who has to figure it out for himself, and he either can't or won't do that on his own to this point...'  The underlined statements above come across to me as general statements that may as well be red flags.  Big ones.

     

    Sano has the potential to be a generational big leaguer.  These types of talents don't grow on trees, especially for the Twins.  I cannot understand why so many people are willing to give him a pass on his lack of conditioning and / or devotion to his craft.  The Twins are going to have to decide fairly soon if Sano is someone they want to hitch their wagon to long term.  Sano himself is making what should be a no-brainer of a choice for the Twins front office a real head-scratcher.

     

    To me, this is a bigger issue. There's certainly a possibility of a culture gap here, which is why some have asked for more Hispanic coaches on staff... it could just be that he's an immature 24 year old that's never experienced failure and never listens to anyone. The org can only do so much there, and if this is a constant issue, then this is also the type of thing that says "go year to year" with the guy. 

     

    Has he, though? Is there any evidence that suggests the team told him to hit a specific number, and he chose to ignore his bosses? Maybe there is, but I don't think anyone here has come across it.

     

    Generally, I don't understand the need to invent realities simply to argue against those realities. By all available photo and video evidence, Sano is about the same size he was last year. I buy that he's not quite in playing shape, but that's a far cry from what a few people here have described in spite of documented visual evidence. But why believe that when someone on Twins Daily says Sano is lazy and obese? I don't know. Maybe you and others can explain it to me.

    What reality has been invented? The only reality that is being discussed is that Sano has come into camp overweight enough that our front office has had to field questions on whether his size will affect his performance. I doubt very much that there is any sort of "weight goal" in writing, however it is not difficult to deduce from their concern that an general outline of where they would like him to be exists and has been discussed with him. If it hasn't, that is negligence on the part of management. If they are viewing it as an issue, why shouldn't we? Also, don't recall seeing a single comment on here calling Miguel obese and lazy. Lamenting that he seems to have such a hard time being disciplined with his fitness, yes. Obese and lazy, no.

    I see a lot of the same arguments which I don't feel have a great deal of merit. The concepts that body types or genetics have a significant impact on weight hasn't been founded in science based on any articles or papers I've read about.

     

    The idea somebody can be 6'4" and ripped at 290-300 lbs isn't realistic. Even a natural bodybuilder won't weigh more than 240-260 lbs at Miguel Sano's height.

     

    Hrbek was used as an example of how a poorly conditioned 1B can still be effective, but Hrbek never exceeded about 250 lbs and once Hrbek hit that weight, his performance tanked and he started getting hurt a lot. Hrbek's best years were played under 240 lbs. Ortiz was a DH and a far superior hitter than Sano. Ortiz capped out around 270 lbs before he began to lighten up and played his final years around 230lbs. Prince Fielder, who was a far superior hitter to Sano, played at a max of 275 lbs (though 4" shorter than Sano) and his weight ended his elite bat at age 28 and chased him from the game entirely at age 32. Ryan Howard maxed out at 275 lbs and wanted to play at 235 lbs so he could increase his value. The history is long and well documented on this issue. Sano will be at his best playing at UNDER 240 lbs. Playing at 235 will not hurt Sano's power. It will increase Sano's bat speed. It will increase Sano's sprint speed. It will increase Sano's range. It will improve Sano's durability. It will improve Sano's endurance.

     

    While Sano may be able to continue to crush baseballs at 290lbs, his average and on base percentage will be significantly lower and his value in the field will be wiped out as a result. Sano continuing to play at extreme weights will kill his value to the Twins as a player or a trade candidate and it WILL end his career maybe even 10 years early.

     

    I'd like Sano to play the best he can for the Twins or whatever team he winds up with long term if not the Twins. I'd like him to maximize his value for my favorite baseball team. If he wants to eat his way to 400+ lbs, that's his prerogative. I won't be upset or dislike him or do anything other than wish him well for it. If he's happy, that's great. All that aside, he won't be nearly as good as he could have been or nearly as valuable to the Twins as he could have been.




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