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    Where Will Twins’ Top 30 Prospects From 2021 Start Their 2024 Seasons?


    Theodore Tollefson

    As we ponder the likely Opening Day destinations of the Minnesota Twins' top 30 prospects for 2024, it makes sense to ground ourselves (and take stock of some things) by looking at where the same group from three years ago are now.

    Image courtesy of © Nathan Ray Seebeck-USA TODAY Sports

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    The Twins' top 30 prospects from MLB Pipeline in 2021 contains many names still floating around the minor leagues, but not all of them will be staying there forever. Here’s where all 30 players are expected to start their 2024 seasons. 

    1. Royce Lewis
    Lewis finally arrived in the majors for a long-term stay in 2023, and he delivered for the Twins when they needed him most, hitting two solo home runs in Game 1 of the Wild Card Series to end the 18-game losing streak.

    His future in 2024 remains on the left side of the Twins infield. All conversations about a return to the outfield, where his second ACL tear took place on May 29, 2022, are on hold. As of now, Lewis has made himself comfortable in the hot corner, and may finally get to see his first season with 100 or more games played since 2019.

    2024 Season Start: Twins, Opening Day 3rd Baseman

    2. Alex Kirilloff
    Injuries have been inescapable for Kirilloff since his first regular-season call-up in 2021. When he has been healthy, he has been the All-Star-caliber hitter he was projected to be as a prospect. 

    Between wrist and shoulder injuries coming up one after another, Kirilloff has struggled to stay on the field for even a couple of months at a stretch. The addition of Carlos Santana to platoon playing time at first with him could help balance the workload and increase the likelihood of sustained health for Kirilloff. 

    The platoon could prove to be vital for Kirilloff’s ability to stay on the field. His career high in games played across his first three seasons is 88, in 2023. With less pressure on him to play first base full-time, maybe he can stretch that to triple digits.

    2024 Season Start: Twins Opening Day Designated Hitter

    3. Trevor Larnach
    Larnach frequently shuttled between St. Paul and the big-league club in 2023. His 58 games with the Twins showed some promise, with a career-high .727 OPS in 212 plate appearances. 

    He still had a stellar season with the Saints in 72 games as he had 15 home runs, 47 runs batted in, and an .888 OPS in 323 plate appearances. Larnach, like many others, crushed Triple-A pitching, but inconsistency of playing time in the majors translated to a lack of success.

    With Matt Wallner surpassing Larnach on the depth chart last season, Larnach will start the season in St. Paul and receive a full-time role in their outfield. The biggest question surrounding Larnach this year will be if he can find a way to grow past his struggles against MLB pitchers. 

    2024 Season Start: Triple-A St. Paul Saints

    4. Jordan Balazovic
    All cards were on the table for Balazovic in 2023. Following an incident in Ft. Myers shortly after Spring Training began, he had to prove everything anew, from his temperament to his performance as a pitcher.

    When Balazovic was called up to make his MLB debut on June 18, everything turned for the better. In his first 11 relief appearances, Balazovic allowed only two runs in 14 innings of work. The league eventually caught up with him across the next seven outings, but he proved himself a valuable reliever when the Twins' options looked bleak mid-summer. 

    Balazovic’s performance in Spring Training wasn’t impressive, following a winter demotion off the 40-man roster and becoming a non-roster invitee in camp. Like last season (but more so), Balazovic will have a make-or-break season with the Saints to keep himself in the Twins organization. Without 40-man roster crunches to worry about, though, his short stint and success in the Majors last summer will keep him from being the first man cut off the Saints roster. 

    2024 Season Start: Triple-A St. Paul Saints Bullpen 

    5. Jhoan Durán
    What can’t Durán do? Big-league hitters are trivial troubles for him; getting (and staying) healthy are his only real challenges.

    Durán built off his successful rookie campaign in 2023, posting a 2.45 ERA in 62 1/3 innings and leading the league with a 101.8-MPH average velocity on his fastball. But his fastball wasn’t the pitch hitters whiffed at the most. That was his curveball, which stumped them 45.9% of the time. 

    But just a week ahead of Opening Day, bad news came from the Twins’ camp, as Durán will start the season on the injured list due to a moderate oblique strain. The good news is it isn’t his throwing arm, but the bad news is the Twins will have some time to start their season without their flamethrower in the bullpen.

    2024 Season Start: Injured List. 

    6. Ryan Jeffers
    Jeffers finally had his breakout season in 2023. As his playing time increased, so did the offense, as he led all catchers across MLB in OPS+ at 134. 

    He is set to get the majority of starts for the Twins behind the dish going into 2024, following a disappointing 2023 season from Christian Vázquez. The biggest area Jeffers can improve upon offensively is his patience, as he drew just 33 walks (against 93 strikeouts) in 2023. 

    With many of the Twins' starters returning from the roster from last season, many eyes will also be fixed on how Jeffers works alongside his starters and what the difference is in their numbers when he’s behind the plate.

    2024 Season Start: Twins Opening Day Catcher

    7. Aaron Sabato 
    Sabato has been one of the more disappointing draft selections by the Twins over the last five years. He spent all of 2023 at Double-A Wichita, which was a slight improvement from his 2022 season. 

    Still, in 77 games, he had only 12 home runs, 45 RBIs, and a triple-slash of .221/.329/.430. Sabato shined this autumn, as he played 18 games in the Arizona Fall League and hit seven home runs and a .905 OPS. 

    If Sabato can build off the success he had there, there’s a solid chance he could be playing in St. Paul by the end of the summer. But only time will tell if the short-term success turns into longevity in the Minors.

    2024 Season Start: Double-A Wichita

    8. Matt Canterino
    Before Tommy John surgery truncated his 2022 and obliterated his 2023, Canterino was a high-ceiling prospect. While some still speculate he could see time as a starter in 2024, he’s only logged a total of 85 innings since the Twins drafted him in 2019. His future is in the bullpen, if it remains viable at all.

    Many eyes will be on him this spring to see how he’s healed from his surgery but Canterino will be an exciting pitcher to keep track of in the Twins organization--both in St. Paul and, possibly, at Target Field later in the year. 

     

    2024 Season Start: Triple-A St. Paul Saints' Injured List 

    9. Gilberto Celestino
    After being rushed up to the majors for two straight seasons as the Twins' center field depth splintered, Celestino spent the entire 2023 season in the minors. He still dealt with injury throughout the season and was limited to 59 games with the Saints.

    The Twins moved on from Celestino this offseason, sending him into minor-league free agency. The Pirates signed him to a minor-league deal with an invitation to spring training. 

    When camp began, Celestino appeared to have a shot to break camp as part of the Pirates' Opening Day roster, given their depleted outfield. The team's signing of Michael A. Taylor on March 16 effectively killed those chances.

    The two biggest things for Celestino to prove this season are his health and maturity with his hitting abilities. His bat-to-ball skills fell behind when the Twins rushed him to the majors in 2021, but now, he can start the second phase of his career in his third organization. 

    2024 Season Start: Triple-A Indianapolis 

    10. Keoni Cavaco
    The Twins' first-round pick from 2019 has had an underwhelming professional career, and his 2023 season was no different. 

    Cavaco had a lackluster 63 games in the minors last year, mostly at High-A Cedar Rapids. He had a .203/.270/.304 line across 238 plate appearances. Power was supposed to drive his profile, but he only hit five dingers in the Midwest League.

    This could be a make-or-break season for Cavaco, as he turns 23 in June and will be starting the year at High-A once again. Cavaco will have to surpass his 2023 numbers by a mile to ensure his tenure with the Twins organization doesn’t end before the season is over. 

    2024 Season Start: High-A Cedar Rapids outfield 

    11. Misael Urbina
    2023 is a season Urbina would like to put far behind him; he had his worst year in pro ball. Across 102 games with the Kernels, Urbina posted a triple-slash of .180/.289/.282. The soon-to-be 22-year-old is entering his sixth year in the Twins system, and will have to prove himself to ensure this isn’t his last within the organization.

    2024 Season Start: High-A Cedar Rapids Kernels outfield 

    12. Blayne Enlow
    Enlow split his 2023 season between Wichita and St. Paul and saw mixed results. At Wichita, he looked to be on the right track to return from injury, posting a 3.17 ERA and 1.13 WHIP in 54 innings of work. At St. Paul, he was tagged with an ERA just below 8.00. Opponents batted .294 in 45 ⅓ innings of work. This led to Enlow electing free agency in the offseason and landing a minor-league deal with the San Francisco Giants. 

    In four appearances this spring, Enlow has thrown nine innings and posted an ERA of 4.00. He will likely start his season in the minors again, but with a change of scenery, he may finally have the opportunity to make his MLB debut this season.

    2024 Season Start: Triple-A Sacramento River Cats

    13. Brent Rooker
    Last season was Rooker’s year to show teams what they’ve missed out on. Unfortunately for him, the Twins didn’t have the roster spots to keep him and get consistent playing time. Two organizations later, the Oakland Athletics did, and he didn’t disappoint. During his first month with the A’s last April, Rooker crushed pitchers, leading the American League with a 1.245 OPS for the first month of the season.

    While he cooled off as the season progressed, Rooker still hit 30 home runs, led Oakland with a 130 OPS+, and made his first All-Star team. He remains one of the few bright spots in a continuously depressing time for Oakland fans, as their owner continues to ignore their pleas. But at least these fans can hope for Rooker to build off his 2023 and light up at the plate for the Coliseum faithful.

     

    2024 Season Start: Athletics Opening Day Designated Hitter 

    14. Matt Wallner
    The Forest Lake native made his mark with the Twins in 2023, as one of the best-hitting three-rookie class the franchise has seen in a long time. With raw power at the plate and an electric arm that can gun down any cocky base runner, Wallner has solidified himself as a full-time outfielder with his hometown team.

    The next step is an improvement in his defense and cutting down on the strikeouts. Wallner has a great chance to make these improvements in his first full season in the majors and to keep the excitement going for young Twins fans who hope to have the same opportunities as him in the future.

    2024 Season Start: Twins Opening Day Left Fielder

    15. Josh Winder
    Winder became the Twins go-to long reliever when he was in the bullpen last year. He wasn't often there, though, dividing his time between the parent club's staff and that of the Saints.

    This offseason, the Twins stocked themselves with bullpen arms, pushing Winder down the pecking order and winnowing his chances to make the Opening Day roster. Unfortunately, he was the first player on the 40-man in spring training to land on the injured list, rendering that question moot.

    Winder isn’t expected to return until late May, at least. With his season behind schedule, it’s hard to predict how he will best be utilized once his right scapula stress fracture heals. 

    2024 Season Start: Injured List 

    16. Cole Sands
    No player on the Twins roster had a higher service time-to-playing time ratio in 2023 than Sands. Though he only pitched in 15 games, he accumulated 73 days' worth of service time while going as long as a week and a half on the active roster without appearing in a game.

    Sands did open last season on the Twins roster, and with injuries mounting to his fellow relievers, he has a chance to do so again in 2024. With Durán and Thielbar down and Justin Topa seemingly so, the opportunity to add a long reliever to start the season is there. With Winder out, Sands is next in line.

    2024 Season Start: Twins Opening Day Roster 

    17. Alerick Soularie
    Soularie had a stellar June in an otherwise dull 2023 season, hitting .390 with 3 home runs and 11 runs batted in across 17 games. There is still some shine in Soularie as a hitter and the second season in Wichita could see signs of improvement to attract his attention toward St. Paul later this year.

    2024 Season Start: Double-A Wichita 

    18. Edwar Colina 
    Colina was out of professional baseball all of 2021 and 2022 following his short-lived MLB debut in 2020. He made a comeback in pro ball in 2023 in the Texas Rangers organization, spending all season at Triple-A Round Rock and posting a 4.65 ERA across 31 innings in 26 relief appearances. Those numbers didn't inspire anyone enough to get him another look in affiliated ball this spring.

    2024 Season Start: Out of professional baseball 

    19. Travis Blankenhorn 
    On Jan. 13, Blankenhorn re-signed with the Washington Nationals, who had outrighted him in October. He still plays the role of a utility bench player and pending injuries or underperformance from guys ahead of him in the pecking order, he could see more playing time with the Nationals in 2024.

    2024 Season Start: Triple-A Rochester Red Wings

    20. José Miranda
    Miranda spent the majority of 2023 battling a shoulder injury and looked like a shell of the hitter he was the previous two seasons. His first 36 games with the Twins to start the season were dismal, as he had a .220/.275/.318 triple-slash. 

    Many questions loom over Miranda as he enters the 2024 season. Can he remain healthy? Can he regain his power? Will he find a way back to the majors and recapture the success from his rookie year? Not all will be answered immediately, but he will start the season in St. Paul to play every day and have the chance to answer some of these questions as the season goes on. 

    2024 Season Start: Triple-A St. Paul Saints

    21. Emmanuel Rodriguez
    Rodríguez now finds himself one of the top three prospects in the Twins system. He is the only player in the entire system who can give Edouard Julien a run for his money with his strike zone judgment. His tiny strike zone drove his strikeout totals to a career-high of 134 with the Kernels last season. However, he balanced the high strikeouts with a Midwest League-leading 92 walks. 

    There is still plenty of excitement surrounding Rodríguez’s abilities at the plate and in center field for 2024, and the question will be how well he adjusts to his abilities as he makes the hardest jump in the minors to begin the year.

     

    2024 Season Start: Double-A Wichita 

    22. Chris Vallimont 
    In May 2022, the Twins placed Vallimont on waivers, and he was later acquired by the Baltimore Orioles. Over a year later, he made his MLB debut with the team for a quick cup of coffee, giving up one hit but striking out his first batter. 

    Shortly after his debut, though, he was back in the minors, and then got ping-ponged over to Cleveland's system. Many Triple-A pitchers fell victim to crushing numbers in 2023, and Vallimont was no different. His short time in the Guardians system did not bode well, as he elected free agency in October and had no offers this offseason. It's looking as though he may be out of professional baseball completely.

    2024 Season Start: Free agency 

    23. Wander Javier
    Javier was in camp with the San Diego Padres in 2023, but was released before the start of the season. He never signed elsewhere, and his current whereabouts in the baseball world remain unknown.

    2024 Season Start: Remains out of Baseball

    24. Will Holland 
    Like a few other Wind Surge players on this list, Holland’s 2023 season wasn’t spectacular by any means. He had a triple-slash of .197/.300/.306 across 341 plate appearances in 101 games.

    His upside remains his versatility to play, primarily up the middle at second base, shortstop, and center field. Holland turns 26 on April 18, and like many other career minor leaguers on this list, he will have a lot to prove as a hitter to keep his time with the Twins organization alive.

    2024 Seasons Start: Double-A Wichita

    25. Bailey Ober
    The biggest question surrounding Ober is whether he will be able to maintain success if he sets a new career high in innings pitched. He could be pushed toward 180 or 190 innings in 2024, as long as he stays healthy. But will his numbers remain similar to what they were in 2023, or will we see more damage as he faces more hitters this year?

    2024 Season Start: Twins Opening Day Rotation

    26. Marco Raya
    Raya’s story has been one of caution by the Twins. No pitcher in their system has as many limitations on his workload as Raya. The 21-year-old has only thrown a total of 127 ⅔ innings between 2022 and 2023, 29 of those coming from his time with the Wind Surge to end 2023. 

    Those 29 innings were far from good, as he had a 5.90 ERA in 11 starts, averaging 2 ⅔ innings per start. Raya currently sits as the Twins' second-best-pitching prospect, behind David Festa. But the question remains if he can overcome his workload limit and perform better at Double-A for a full season.

    The fortunate thing for Raya and the Twins is his age. He will not be turning 22 until August. Maybe now is the time to let him off the leash and see what he is capable of without limitations on workload.

    2024 Season Start: Double-A Wichita 

    27. Seth Gray
    Gray spent all but one of his 85 games played in 2023 in Double-A. He had a short call-up to Triple-A with the Saints in June, where he went 1-for-4 with a double. 

    The rest of Gray’s season was solid, as he played the majority of his games at third base and batted .260/.366/.400 across 337 plate appearances. While third base was the position he played most, Gray’s another player in the Twins system who can move around from position to position.

    2024 Season Start: Double-A Wichita 

    28. Luis Rijo

    The Twins released Luis Rijo over a year ago, following a poor 2022 season wherein he had an ERA of exactly 6.00 in 30 innings of work across 12 games.

    Since then, he’s pitched the last two seasons in the Venezuelan Winter League, hoping to attract the attention of major-league teams. This season, he showed great progress as he converted into a full-time reliever, posting a 2.95 ERA across 18 1/3 innings in 16 games. 

    No affiliated team has offered Rijo a deal yet, but he is only 25 years old. There’s a possibility he will be signed as roster spots open up for teams in the coming weeks. 

    2024 Season Start: Minor Leagues with TBD team 

    29. Ben Rortvedt 
    Rortvedt remains the only player from the Twins and Yankees trade two years ago that is still on either of the teams. His 2023 season with the Yankees wasn’t anything eye-catching at the plate, as he had a measly eight hits in 68 at-bats, adding to a triple slash of .118/.241/.221.

    Despite these dismal numbers as a hitter, the opportunity has opened up for Rortvedt to make his first Opening Day roster. The longtime backup catcher, Kyle Higashioka, was packaged in the deal to get Juan Soto from the Padres.

    Alas, spring training has not been as glamorous for Rortvedt, compared to young catcher Austin Wells, and pending the health of Wells and José Trevino, he will likely be starting another year in the minors.

    2024 Season Start: Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders, Triple-A

    30. Danny De Andrade
    Back in 2021, De Andrade’s name was unfamiliar to many outside of Twins prospect gurus, but he’s landed on the radar for more fans and writers going into this season. 

    De Andrade spent all of 2023 with the Ft. Myers Mighty Mussels and put together a solid season with his glove at shortstop. He developed more power, having career highs in home runs (11), runs batted in (67), and OPS (.750).

    Entering the 2024 season at only 20 years old, De Andrade still has a way to go to reach the majors. With the Twins trading away Noah Miller for Manuel Margot, De Andrade (who is a better hitter than Miler) has a slightly clearer ladder to climb. 

    2024 Season Start: High-A Cedar Rapids shortstop

    2024 Season Starts Total 
    On MLB Opening Day Rosters: 7 
    On MLB Injured Lists: 3
    In the Minors: 16
    Out of Professional Baseball: 4

    With only four players without a contract or out of professional baseball to start 2024, there’s still a good chance a majority of these current or former top-30 prospects for the Twins will see MLB playing time in 2024.

    The three injured players (Durán, Canterino, and Winder) do not have massive setbacks that will keep them out of action for long. Durán is guaranteed to pitch with the Twins once he returns from the IL, but Canterino and Winder will take some time in St. Paul before seeing their time with the Twins come around. 

    It’s a bit easier to look into the all-seeing crystal ball and predict where these players will begin their 2024 seasons, but looking beyond that can be a fool's errand as baseball has often shown the 162 season is anything but predictable. And that will be the case for all of the 2021 Top 30 Twins prospects per MLB pipeline, as it will be with the current top 30 in a year or three.

     

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    Marek Houston

    Cedar Rapids Kernels - A+, SS
    The 22-year-old went 2-for-5 on Friday night, his fourth straight multi-hit game. Heading into the week, he was hitting .246/.328/.404 (.732). Four games later, he is hitting .303/.361/.447 (.808).

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    There were a few others in the organization that failed to make the pipeline but in hindsight are probably top 30 if reranked with some in the top 10.

    Kala’i Rosario (drafted 2020)

    Spencer Steer, Eduardo Julien, Louis Varland, Brent Headrick, Sawyer Gipson Long, Casey Legumina (drafted 2019)

    Kody Funderburk (drafted 2018)

    Yennier Cano, Jair Camargo

     

     

     

     

    Nice recap, Theodore!

    Some thoughts ...

    - Julien did a good job staying under cover

    - I can still feel the wind from the whiff on Cavaco, and Corbin Carroll sure would look good in a Twins uni.

    - I'd rather see Wallner and Kirilloff start on Opening Day, but I'm guessing we will see Margot and Vazquez instead (with Jeffers at DH).

    - Gray and Holland should just keep grinding, if it works for their families.  See Wisdom, Patrick and to a lesser extent Maggi, Drew.

    Interesting read, thanks.

    Whenever I see Canterino's name I cringe and hope that he somehow can put all those injuries behind him.  Did he get into only one game this spring?  I recall his first outing was amazing.  I don't care if it is in the pen or as a starter, I just want to see this young man pitching for the Twins.  And that can be at any level because I know that if he gets a month or two on the mound early this year, he will end the year with the Twins.

    One question.  This spring's injury isn't something major that will keep him out all year, is it?

    3 hours ago, MMMordabito said:

    Nice recap, Theodore!

    Some thoughts ...

    - Julien did a good job staying under cover

    - I can still feel the wind from the whiff on Cavaco, and Corbin Carroll sure would look good in a Twins uni.

    - I'd rather see Wallner and Kirilloff start on Opening Day, but I'm guessing we will see Margot and Vazquez instead (with Jeffers at DH).

    - Gray and Holland should just keep grinding, if it works for their families.  See Wisdom, Patrick and to a lesser extent Maggi, Drew.

    The what if game would be better with George Kirby 

    Bravo!  Well done on this look back, this is why I read Twins Daily!

    I am actually quite surprised on how many of these players are still relevant after 3 years.  Not sure exactly what I expected in terms of %'s, but when you go 30 deep in prospects this includes a lot of players with very questionable futures (could be a major league player but will need to address x, y, & z =).

    Prospect list always compel me to have to comment:

    KIRILLOFF: With the wrist issue now apparently fixed, I'm expecting his very best season in 2024 and establishing himself as a lineup mainstay for the next few years, regardless of debates we want to have about 1B this coming season.

    LARNACH: I'm of the belief he and Martin will fill LF in 2025 in a quasi platoon as Martin will also play CF. And Larnach will probably play some DH as well. There's still something to work with even if he never reaches the level we had hoped for. It's up to him.

    SABATO: I don't blame the Twins for drafting him 1st in 2020. They were picking in the 20's with a lot of missing pieces of information for ALL eligible players. 1B/DH ONLY, he was a potentially special RH power bat based on his first 2yrs of college ball. At this point, I don't expect him to play ML ball, at least not with the Twins.

    CANTERINO: ASSUMING he can ever stay mostly healthy one of these days, I was in favor of him staying in the rotation coming in to this season. I think that dream is over. He should be a RP going forward. Now, is he a Stewart type who bounces around for a while and fights injuries and FINALLY gets right at 29-30yrs old? Or is there a chance he gets right sooner than that? Crossing my fingers, but ohhhh...WHAT MIGHT HAVE BEEN!

    CAVACO: An example where you just DON'T draft a toolsy HS kid with helium that early. One of the few times where the scouting department just guessed WRONG. Hopefully a learning experience. 

    COLINA: I honestly thought he'd be one of the top RP in the bullpen this season, if not last. Another example of how injuries can just ruin the potential of an arm. 

    VALLIMONT and RIJO: I had doubts about Vallimont, but thought he had pen potential. I actually thought Rijo had a shot as a rotation piece as he really flashed for a little while. Again, it shows how injuries cruelly affect potential.

    URBINA: I don't want to just single him out by himself, even though he's 22. I say this excluding Emma and the recently Gabriel Gonzalez who are both in the 20-21 year old range, but because in the lower levels there's a collection of 19-21yo Latin players who are coming off their 1st or 2nd season stateside after flashing in the DSL previously. And they're all young enough to raise their games in 2024, Urbina amongst them. And while I'm excited about the TOP prospects in the system, I'm going to be looking really hard at Urbina, J Rodriguez, Mercedes, and a few other Latin players in A ball who were signed as really nice international signings who have the opportunity to move up and establish themselves as good if not top prospects following 2024.

     

    I really enjoyed this.  I love seeing the progress and demotions that affect our prospects and I enjoy seeing players who are not on the list leap frog over the top prospects.  Thanks for the notes and speculation.

    9 hours ago, mnfireman said:

    Duran is a heckuva a talent, but each of the last 2 springs he has looked bigger than he did at the end of the previous season, at least to me. Maybe a team mandated strength and conditioning program is in order.... 

    I think they already push a good nutrition and conditioning plan with all of their players. How would they mandate it? What is the consequence? Release? No offer of extension? Committing to strength and conditioning needs to be self mandated. Some are better at it than others and one of a player’s “tools” that should be considered upon acquisition.



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